The Perils of pursuing an airline pilot career

[Gino Under]

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/ne ... 36857.html

Prospective students can benefit from this fore warning. The Canadian airline industry is in peril and it is becoming more and more clear that the large number of pilot requirements not long ago anticipated are likely to be no longer required. Recovery will be slow and painfully arduous. It may be time to delay the realization of your dream and look at the alternatives. Your future and financial security could be greatly affected by making the right decision.

Gino Under

[gtappl]

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/ne ... 36857.html

Prospective students can benefit from this fore warning. The Canadian airline industry is in peril and it is becoming more and more clear that the large number of pilot requirements not long ago anticipated are likely to be no longer required. Recovery will be slow and painfully arduous. It may be time to delay the realization of your dream and look at the alternatives. Your future and financial security could be greatly affected by making the right decision.

Gino Under

Imagine how much worse it here if you're working for a shithole airline that didn't even take advantage of the wage subsidy?

[gswartz]

As quickly as it all unraveled, it could "almost" return just as fast. Prior to the pandemic, we were legitimately short of pilots here in Canada. If it's truly what you want to do in life, I'd say go for it. Best of luck!

[7ECA]

CAE just announced that there'll be an anticipated need for 260,000 pilots by the end of the decade - I mean if you can trust them to be impartial, that is.

[RedAndWhiteBaron]

My 2¢?

I highly doubt human nature will change all that much. People will still want to travel, and as this pandemic fades into memory, old habits will return. All the conditions that created the pilot shortage still exist; the only difference currently is a lack of demand for air travel, which I firmly believe will return.

[Gino Under]

CAE’s forecast is probably accurate if things in the airline industry, particularly here in Canada, get back to where they were before this pandemic.
I am rather suspicious of organizations whose life blood is pilot training. You’d expect them to market their pilot training aggressively and especially so following an industry wide sh*t kicking hoping to remain in the pilot training business.
I’d say the same for the UPRT schools who use general aviation loss of control statistics to market their training. You’d think planes were falling out of the sky all over. Imagine how lucrative that business must be?
When airline pilot organizations like BALPA actually come out and say what they’re saying, it’s probably worth listening to.
Is it possible CAE might possibly have gotten it wrong?
When we start to emerge from this pandemic hopefully in a years time, I doubt individual disposable income will be able to meet some of the hoped for passenger loads many seem to think will magically reappear. Certainly the surviving airlines especially here in Canada won’t be anywhere as large as they were and aren’t likely to need lots of additional crew.
Proceed with caution.

Gino Under

[telex]

What does a type rating at CAE cost? 50K?

What is $50 000 x 260 000?

I wonder if CAE has something to gain from their prediction...

[Gino Under]

I totally agree telex.

But at the same time I'd encourage those in pursuit of an airline pilot career to really take a hard look at that career choice. Especially now that this pandemic has drastically changed the air transportation industry world wide.
While the numbers forecast may seem ominous, the numbers for Canada really aren't that staggering. Canada will be where most get their initial 1 to 2,000 hours of experience at a time when many operators aren't hiring or are slowing down their operation.

If your intention is to seek employment overseas, you'll still need a competitive resume of experience to offer and in many cases a type rating WITH time on type, time in excess of 500 hours. Not an easy task to achieve by any stretch. Those F/O pay-as-you-fly schemes popular in SE Asia (which are not only a complete rip off but also not welcome by many professional pilots) are all but gone, so forget that.

The Canadian airline industry seems to rely heavily on word-of-mouth and nepotism, which is a whole other challenge, coupled with a very expensive pathway which in most cases is self-funded.

In Canada today, it's the Royal Canadian Air Force as your best bet. Not everyone will get in but it's the best on offer at the moment. We should expect to see the government sponsored college programs being terminated or suspended. Unless they buy what CAE is selling. The local flying schools could be in for some pretty tough times without foreign government sponsored programs they're going to aggressively spin positive reports like CAE's.

I certainly can't predict the future but I'd encourage all aspiring pilots to set the brake and really do some critical thinking because no one in aviation involved with training or training services is going to give you bad news. That would be bad for business.

Stay safe, and wear a mask.
Gino Under

[PilotY]

Felt I should jump in and say that my flight school is busier than it has ever been. Even pre-Covid. My guess is that people who were financially able to skirt around Covid by taking advantage of work from home initiatives are now sitting twiddling their thumbs with too much time on their hands. I doubt flight schools will suffer much, considering they aren't now.

Also just recently spoke with some Canadian management pilots. Mostly positive.

2008 was also a big economic downturn that sent many into the red, yet somehow in about 10 years the industry was taking 250 hour pilots out of colleges. I don't see why Covid will be different. Cabin fever is a real deal, once it calms down I imagine people won't be able to wait.