Investing strategies for the commercial pilot?

[Boreas]

Ha. There's hope for you yet, AvCanada.

[photofly]

\

I don't give a F?

...

On twitter I journal my observations on markets and the economy. I really don't give a F who it pleases or I disagree with the whole world.

Anyone who counts his followers clearly cares a lot who he pleases.

[rookiepilot]

A more positive idea for the crowd here: Buy AC stock if the AT deal goes through -- (or you believe it will)

I bought a nice chunk when the gov't approved the deal.

Just an idea, no warranty.

[Launchpad1]

Thing is about buying AC stock, although I completely believe it will go back up to around $50 at some point, is that unless you put in a lot the potential returns are small.

The most it's ever likely to do is triple from its current price.

I don't have much to invest so I'm going for the super speculative loooooong shots. Not putting in enough so that if I lose it I'm going to be moving into the local dumpster but enough so that there's maybe a chance of some good returns.

[rookiepilot]

Thing is about buying AC stock, although I completely believe it will go back up to around $50 at some point, is that unless you put in a lot the potential returns are small.

The most it's ever likely to do is triple from its current price.

I'm more than happy with that.

[photofly]

unless you put in a lot the potential returns are small.

The most it's ever likely to do is triple from its current price.

Is it a sign of the times that someone considers a 200% return to be small?

[rookiepilot]

unless you put in a lot the potential returns are small.

The most it's ever likely to do is triple from its current price.

Is it a sign of the times that someone considers a 200% return to be small?

Photofly. I apologize for the prior snark. You're absolutely correct it's a sign of the times.

This is, respectfully, why I wrote the inflation thread as (forcefully) I did, to talk about risks.

Newbie investors have gone absolutely crazy with taking risks all over the place. It's a mania on both sides of the border, without regard for the slightest degree of careful behaviour.

I've traded through this exact environment twice before, in 2000 during the Internet bust, and 2007 during the housing crash. This is number 3, this time based on EV stocks, SPAC's and crypto, and in all three the public thought it would never end, this time is different, and math didn't matter.

It still does. My prime broker, who I've always been able to get on the phone within minutes for 20 + years, now has one hour or more waits for preferred customers.

A manager there told me they've been opening 5000 new accounts a week, and more. It's a mania. Tons of stuff is bid up with zero intrinsic value.

Everyone, if you're trading risky Sh-- during this Covid layoff -- and a load of folks are -- PLEASE Be careful. People lose their homes, marriages, and I know of folks who've lost both over the years.

It can, and does, turn violently on a dime when the atmosphere is like this. Trust me on that.

Watch US bonds, Government and corporates, very closely.

[Launchpad1]

Is it a sign of the times that someone considers a 200% return to be small?

I should quantify, the amount I'm spending on these 'riskier opportunities' is in the range of $200 to $300.

I would never go 'all in' on a complete long shot.

It's just that if I put $300 into AC stock then maybe in 5 years that might have grown to a whopping $900. However putting $300 into a long shot on something like a lithium mining company or an AI based company might possibly in 5 years be worth $10k. I might also lose the $300 completely but with some decent due diligence you can mitigate these risks somewhat.

Everyone, if you're trading risky Sh-- during this Covid layoff -- and a load of folks are -- PLEASE Be careful. People lose their homes, marriages, and I know of folks who've lost both over the years.

This is very good advice though. Never risk amounts that are going to significantly screw up your finances if it doesn't pay off.

[rookiepilot]

5% or less, can be mad $$$$ positions--- I have one maybe one of you have flown up in the ring of Fire....Noront

[rookiepilot]

What an Idiot, just trying to keep his retail clients in place.

Plus his logic --- is pretty foolish and completely ignores the biggest factors today.
https://ritholtz.com/2021/02/stop-stres ... inflation/

Reading skills not quite what they used to be, huh Rookie? Maybe this would be a bit more your speed: https://www.dummies.com/education/econo ... inflation/.

I choose to follow this guy. Worth .....$85 billion or so. Very out of favour these days.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Buffett

What's he doing? Buying energy and materials stocks......Last I looked, those are inflationary sectors.

[YYZSaabGuy]

I choose to follow this guy. Worth .....$85 billion or so. Very out of favour these days.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Buffett

What's he doing? Buying energy and materials stocks......Last I looked, those are inflationary sectors.

I'm pretty sure Buffett isn't "very out of favor" with much of anybody these days. And yes, energy and materials stocks have been good inflation hedges in the past. In the event we see some sustained price increases in the coming months (i.e. other than temporary pressures due to base effect), they'll help out - in fact, I own a bunch myself.

My point was that successfully and consistently predicting economic trends is difficult, and a lot of very bright people are less concerned about inflation trends than a lot of other very bright people - as I pointed out in a previous thread, you could lay all the economists in the world end to end and they still wouldn't reach a conclusion. You seem to have a very firm opinion on the subject ("Inflation is coming....in a big way"), which is fine, but at this point it's only your opinion. Others may hold different views, which doesn't in and of itself make them idiots, contrary to one of your earlier posts.

I'll also point out, for anybody still following this thread, that inflation is only one of many risks faced by stocks in the normal course. The trick is to understand where we are in the cycle and to manage those risks, and then to make sure you're properly compensated for risks you can't mitigate. And importantly, if you want to really understand this stuff, do your own research, rather than relying on a bunch of anonymous folks on an aviation forum.

[rookiepilot]

I choose to follow this guy. Worth .....$85 billion or so. Very out of favour these days.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Buffett

What's he doing? Buying energy and materials stocks......Last I looked, those are inflationary sectors.

I'm pretty sure Buffett isn't "very out of favor" with much of anybody these days.

He sure is way out of favor, just like at other important inflection points.

[YYZSaabGuy]

I choose to follow this guy. Worth .....$85 billion or so. Very out of favour these days.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Buffett

What's he doing? Buying energy and materials stocks......Last I looked, those are inflationary sectors.

I'm pretty sure Buffett isn't "very out of favor" with much of anybody these days.

He sure is way out of favor, just like at other important inflection points.

Source?

[rookiepilot]

I'm pretty sure Buffett isn't "very out of favor" with much of anybody these days.

He sure is way out of favor, just like at other important inflection points.

Source?

https://www.google.ca/

Gee, do I need to provide a source that the world isn't flat, too? It just...is what it is. Obvious.

Oh, and I'm not an economist.

Economists -- with the best formal education money can buy -- have a not impressive record of predicting anything. Academics absolutely SUCK in this regard, for a whole variety of reasons I'm too lazy to write about, and why we regularly have a nice, fun financial crisis.

That is why they are economists and not traders. But I doubt you'll get this either.

[Dh8Classic]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Buffett

What's he doing? Buying energy and materials stocks......Last I looked, those are inflationary sectors.

Isn't that the guy who invested in airlines.

[rookiepilot]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Buffett

What's he doing? Buying energy and materials stocks......Last I looked, those are inflationary sectors.

Isn't that the guy who invested in airlines.

He did, blew them out at a loss. Probably a good move. I like AC only because of AT deal and WJ is a walking disaster movie. Even then I'm not totally sure.

Long a lot of energy now and I'm with him there.

[Adam Oke]

As a commercial pilot, you are likely going to lose your job at one point. So buffers are key.

I won't get into the particulars of my opinion on investing except for the statement that "Smooth is slow, and slow is fast". There is no get rich fast scheme and I highly recommend researching the Canadian Couch Potato Portfolio. For your average joe, you will out perform every time with this brain-less approach.

As for recession-proofing yourself...my advice is not so much in investments, but so much as cash in hand, no debt, and living within your means. If you hold a mortgage or any debt; when you buy a coffee at Tim Horton's, it is with borrowed money and you are paying interest on that coffee. Let that sink in.

I'm back to working in aerial application and my salary is weather dependant. I could make 30k in the season or I could make ~90k. Boom or bust, and it seemed like there was and is little in between. I learned rather quickly to save up a surplus of cash and consider it as spent money for the rest of the year up until the next season rolled around. It is such a simplistic and seemingly stupid method, but pay yourself first, chop up every paycheque as if it were spent money in the "Gail Vaz-Oxlade Jar Method", and live within your means and you will live a very financially stress free life.

At the end of the day ALWAYS pay yourself first. No one will take care of your except for yourself, so make sure you do....every pay cheque!

[YYZSaabGuy]

He sure is way out of favor, just like at other important inflection points.

Source?

https://www.google.ca/

Gee, do I need to provide a source that the world isn't flat, too? It just...is what it is. Obvious.

Oh, and I'm not an economist.

Economists -- with the best formal education money can buy -- have a not impressive record of predicting anything. Academics absolutely SUCK in this regard, for a whole variety of reasons I'm too lazy to write about, and why we regularly have a nice, fun financial crisis.

That is why they are economists and not traders. But I doubt you'll get this either.

Thanks, Rookie, for confirming once again that you like to make shit up!

Fully agree with you that economists have a terrible track record making reliable forecasts. That's OK, because nobody else does a better job at it, either, including you and your day trading buddies. (Ever hear of EMH?). If you'd like to broaden your narrow horizons, try studying a guy like Howard Marks: you don't need to be able to forecast what the market's going to do - you just need to be able to figure out where you are in the cycle.

BTW, still not obvious to me that Buffett is out of favour with anybody - except maybe you. But hey, since you claim to be following the man, you might find this helpful: https://www.investopedia.com/financial- ... es-by.aspx. Pay particular attention to Rule #1 and Rule #2 (although in your case I guess this is a bit late?).

[rookiepilot]

Source?

https://www.google.ca/

Gee, do I need to provide a source that the world isn't flat, too? It just...is what it is. Obvious.

Oh, and I'm not an economist.

Economists -- with the best formal education money can buy -- have a not impressive record of predicting anything. Academics absolutely SUCK in this regard, for a whole variety of reasons I'm too lazy to write about, and why we regularly have a nice, fun financial crisis.

That is why they are economists and not traders. But I doubt you'll get this either.

Thanks, Rookie, for confirming once again that you like to make shit up!

Fully agree with you that economists have a terrible track record making reliable forecasts. That's OK, because nobody else does a better job at it, either, including you and your day trading buddies. (Ever hear of EMH?). If you'd like to broaden your narrow horizons, try studying a guy like Howard Marks: you don't need to be able to forecast what the market's going to do - you just need to be able to figure out where you are in the cycle.

BTW, still not obvious to me that Buffett is out of favour with anybody - except maybe you. But hey, since you claim to be following the man, you might find this helpful: https://www.investopedia.com/financial- ... es-by.aspx. Pay particular attention to Rule #1 and Rule #2 (although in your case I guess this is a bit late?).

YYZ.

Last I looked, I certainly have not trolled you about your commercial flying career.

I am now quite done with your rude and arrogant behavior and personal attacks.

I am not a first officer you can browbeat. I won't tolerate it.

Don't agree with me? Fine. That is your right. Be silent if you cannot respond respectfully.

I have commented here on economics not to sell a thing, but to encourage a cautious approach.

Keep pushing and perhaps you'll earn yourself a holiday. Clear?

Enough.

[YYZSaabGuy]

YYZ.

Last I looked, I certainly have not trolled you about your commercial flying career.

I am now quite done with your rude and arrogant behavior and personal attacks.

I am not a first officer you can browbeat. I won't tolerate it.

Don't agree with me? Fine. That is your right. Be silent if you cannot respond respectfully.

I have commented here on economics not to sell a thing, but to encourage a cautious approach.

Keep pushing and perhaps you'll earn yourself a holiday. Clear?

Enough.

Touch a nerve there, Rookie? Feeling a bit fragile this morning?

It's endlessly fascinating to me that keyboard warriors like you are quick to bloviate relentlessly on here about their pet dislikes (personal financial planners and bank staff, economists, big business, stock brokers, anybody with a modicum of post-secondary education, BBD and SNC management, anybody who isn't self-employed or who hasn't in your opinion displayed the requisite degree of suffering while pulling themselves up by their own bootstraps, the "entitled" younger generation (ageism, Chuckles, ageism!)), and then scream bloody murder when they're called on it.

Oh, and then go back and delete a bunch of their more egregiously miserable posts once it's pointed out how - wait for it - rude and disrespectful they're being: http://www.avcanada.ca/forums2/viewtopi ... 9&start=80.

Hypocritical, much?

If you don't like my posts, or if you find my tone disrespectful, then you should feel free to block me. And, as you like to say, that's not a request.

That said, in the interests of helping you cope with your new-found sensitivity, here's a further list of resources you might find helpful:

https://www.amazon.com/Emotionally-Stro ... 1533232601
https://www.postgraduateforum.com/forum ... skin/18357
https://www.webdesignerdepot.com/2012/0 ... criticism/
https://tinybuddha.com/blog/dealing-cri ... hick-skin/

As you love to say: Endorse!

Clear?

[rookiepilot]

YYZ.

Last I looked, I certainly have not trolled you about your commercial flying career.

I am now quite done with your rude and arrogant behavior and personal attacks.

I am not a first officer you can browbeat. I won't tolerate it.

Don't agree with me? Fine. That is your right. Be silent if you cannot respond respectfully.

I have commented here on economics not to sell a thing, but to encourage a cautious approach.

Keep pushing and perhaps you'll earn yourself a holiday. Clear?

Enough.

Touch a nerve there, Rookie? Feeling a bit fragile this morning?

It's endlessly fascinating to me that keyboard warriors like you are quick to bloviate relentlessly on here about their pet dislikes (personal financial planners and bank staff, economists, big business, stock brokers, anybody with a modicum of post-secondary education, BBD and SNC management, anybody who isn't self-employed or who hasn't in your opinion displayed the requisite degree of suffering while pulling themselves up by their own bootstraps, the "entitled" younger generation (ageism, Chuckles, ageism!)), and then scream bloody murder when they're called on it.

Oh, and then go back and delete a bunch of their more egregiously miserable posts once it's pointed out how - wait for it - rude and disrespectful they're being: http://www.avcanada.ca/forums2/viewtopi ... 9&start=80.

Hypocritical, much?

If you don't like my posts, or if you find my tone disrespectful, then you should feel free to block me. And, as you like to say, that's not a request.

That said, in the interests of helping you cope with your new-found sensitivity, here's a further list of resources you might find helpful:

https://www.amazon.com/Emotionally-Stro ... 1533232601
https://www.postgraduateforum.com/forum ... skin/18357
https://www.webdesignerdepot.com/2012/0 ... criticism/
https://tinybuddha.com/blog/dealing-cri ... hick-skin/

As you love to say: Endorse!

Clear?

This is Av Canada. Opinions on a wide variety of subjects are expressed by many on a daily basis.

What you are doing sir is personal abuse, attacking not only my views, but who I am as an individual. It's abusive, right here, right now, and it's now been reported to the Mods.

[North Shore]

YYZ, Rookie...turn it down a little, please. I'm sure that if we were non-socially distanced over a beverage, y'all would be a little more restrained.

[rookiepilot]

I've been trading professionally for 23 years, when I quit my job to start, with virtually nothing.

I've made lot of mistakes, but I've been completely financially independent from this for 20 of those. I live modestly, but everything I have I paid cash for -- Toronto area House, Cars, and an airplane. Zero debt. I don't need to work anymore, but enjoy the challenge. It's interesting.

Like many here, I like to "give back" on a topic I have a lot of experience in.

I thought I had something to say on the topic of risk and investing, but It seems it's a free fire zone from personal attacks.

Frankly I don't need this sh-t. I really don't.

[Ash Ketchum]

I find it hard to invest as a commercial pilot especially in the first decade of the career as I am in. Between the high student debt, low pay, and furloughs it doesn't leave much on the table to be invested. I think flying is one of those careers where the big bucks come towards the end of a career similar to medicine.

[Kosiw]

Save your money, buy a passport to any other country and then invest in yourself by leaving to go anywhere but Canada. Best money you will ever spend. The culture of this forum should be enough to convince you of that already.

Best of luck.

FOD

Moderation in this forum is a disgrace to human decency.

NAILED IT !!