Is this a joke?

[shawnthesheep]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/02/perspect ... index.html

I feel like the authors are being paid by CAE haha.

[digits_]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/02/perspect ... index.html

I feel like the authors are being paid by CAE haha.

It's disgusting. And an indication that pilot shortage predictions are never accurate.

[montado]

There’s a shortage of slaves for every industry.

[tbaylx]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/02/perspect ... index.html

I feel like the authors are being paid by CAE haha.

It's disgusting. And an indication that pilot shortage predictions are never accurate.

There are some very valid points. The recent reduction in demand has driven early retirements and career changes. The reduction in demand is temporary. When demand comes back airlines may struggle to crew aircraft to an even greater degree than they were in 2019.

[digits_]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/02/perspect ... index.html

I feel like the authors are being paid by CAE haha.

It's disgusting. And an indication that pilot shortage predictions are never accurate.

There are some very valid points. The recent reduction in demand has driven early retirements and career changes. The reduction in demand is temporary. When demand comes back airlines may struggle to crew aircraft to an even greater degree than they were in 2019.

There are always some valid points in those articles. And they over estimate the growth, underestimate the available pilot force, mix up a shortage of experienced pilots vs a shortage of new pilots.

The article predicts a shortage in north america by 2023. That would mean that people that start a pilot training course now, would have no trouble finding a job when they get their license. Do you think that's true? Would you recommend your children/friends to start pilot training now?

I truly hope I'm wrong, but I would not recommend anyone to start pilot training right now.

[ATC_Anstey]

I've heard that local flight schools in my area are expecting a pilot shortage, and thus more enrollment in the near future for similar reasons mentioned in the article. I didn't really buy it, but who knows. I guess we'll find out, that's what the schools are apparently prepping for.

[throwaway123]

All Covid did was delay the inevitable a few years. We were on the cusp of some pretty massive problems in Canada and the USA with pilot staffing.

Now, due to Covid if people decide to not pursue flying as a career that is going to exacerbate the problem come 3-5 years.

[shawnthesheep]

It's disgusting. And an indication that pilot shortage predictions are never accurate.

There are some very valid points. The recent reduction in demand has driven early retirements and career changes. The reduction in demand is temporary. When demand comes back airlines may struggle to crew aircraft to an even greater degree than they were in 2019.

There are always some valid points in those articles. And they over estimate the growth, underestimate the available pilot force, mix up a shortage of experienced pilots vs a shortage of new pilots.

The article predicts a shortage in north america by 2023. That would mean that people that start a pilot training course now, would have no trouble finding a job when they get their license. Do you think that's true? Would you recommend your children/friends to start pilot training now?

I truly hope I'm wrong, but I would not recommend anyone to start pilot training right now.

I feel like now is the best time to start. Give it a year or two to get your training done, hope that this bailout gets everyone recalled then go from there.

[TWSC]

Whether it is a good time to start or not, it would seem from my experience that a hell of a lot of people are indeed starting. Buddies at a few flight schools have said that they're all super busy and have long waitlists. Can't foresee many of those students having a job in the next couple of years but like others have said, I hope I'm wrong

[ahramin]

A friend of mine just told me today that the travel budget for his company next year is 150% of what it was in 2019. They need to get their business relationships back on track and those relationships are made on the golf course and at the restaurant, not on the other side of a screen. Interesting perspective.

[Bug_Stomper_01]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/02/perspect ... index.html

I feel like the authors are being paid by CAE haha.

Certainly is, they’ve been blabbing about imminent doom and gloom of boomer retirement and complete lack of pilots and ames for decades. Every flight school and college out there has been saying this to potential and enrolled students for obvious reasons.
The fact of the matter is there will never be a shortage, there never has been and never will be. What there is however is a lack of people wanting to work for the piss poor wage and working conditions in North America. It hasn’t changed and it never will. F’n sad

[Bug_Stomper_01]

There’s a shortage of slaves for every industry.

And a surplus of licences that get a taste of the industry and get out after another helping or two of how garbage it is. There is not, and never will be a shortage.

[tbaylx]

There’s a shortage of slaves for every industry.

And a surplus of licences that get a taste of the industry and get out after another helping or two of how garbage it is. There is not, and never will be a shortage.

I respectfully disagree and so would most 705 operators. The level of experience and overall quality of candidate in 2019 was much lower than it was a few years earlier. There were still bodies in the seats but the expe3rience levels were steadily dropping and it was starting to show up in training costs. I suspect we'll be right back there or worse by mid decade.

There won't be a shortage of 250 hour pilots but unless airlines invest in cadet type programs they aren't set up to take that level of experience here in Canada at least.

[Bug_Stomper_01]

There’s a shortage of slaves for every industry.

And a surplus of licences that get a taste of the industry and get out after another helping or two of how garbage it is. There is not, and never will be a shortage.

I respectfully disagree and so would most 705 operators. The level of experience and overall quality of candidate in 2019 was much lower than it was a few years earlier. There were still bodies in the seats but the expe3rience levels were steadily dropping and it was starting to show up in training costs. I suspect we'll be right back there or worse by mid decade.

There won't be a shortage of 250 hour pilots but unless airlines invest in cadet type programs they aren't set up to take that level of experience here in Canada at least.

I may not have conveyed the last post clearly, and properly as I intended. The skilled pilots are out there, they just don’t want to do it under the conditions as of 2019 let alone now. I know several pilots with >5000hrs experience that moved on to better paying jobs with better schedules and benefits outside of the industry. It’s partially due to a different generation that’s increasingly needed to fill these seats that are now up to bat as the last of the boomers near 60.
Flying is something that was really heavily a boomer passion, residual of interest following WW1 & WW2. The following generations after don’t see the industry in the same light and see it more and more as a paycheque, of course I’m speaking strictly from personal experience, others may see the situation differently. Again the talent is out there, the willingness to do it is waning. Times and people are changing and this is a direct symptom of that. It would be an interesting statistic to see how many insurable left seat CPL’s are active vs not (prior to March 2020).

[Bug_Stomper_01]

I've heard that local flight schools in my area are expecting a pilot shortage, and thus more enrollment in the near future for similar reasons mentioned in the article. I didn't really buy it, but who knows. I guess we'll find out, that's what the schools are apparently prepping for.

All flight schools cry impending pilot shortage, as do AMT colleges about impending technician shortage, they’re not going to say “lots of guys are available but most don’t like the pay and no schedule”

[Bug_Stomper_01]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/02/perspect ... index.html

I feel like the authors are being paid by CAE haha.

It’s an opinion and definitely not without bias. They never divulge the actual reason there’s no one willing to fly, maybe PAY?!?

[Bug_Stomper_01]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/02/perspect ... index.html

I feel like the authors are being paid by CAE haha.

It's disgusting. And an indication that pilot shortage predictions are never accurate.

REASON? -“I PAY $500”

[ShamrockPilot]

There is absolutely a pilot shortage being temporarily masked by a pandemic.

Flight school direct to Jazz Dash 8's and Sunwing 737s was happening in 2019 (fact) and will happen again, sooner than we think (opinion).

[Bug_Stomper_01]

There is absolutely a pilot shortage being temporarily masked by a pandemic.

Flight school direct to Jazz Dash 8's and Sunwing 737s was happening in 2019 (fact) and will happen again, sooner than we think (opinion).

uh huh, lots of newer licences advancing quicker at that time, there’s a reason for that.

[“Bob”]

There’s going to be a pilot shortage again.

Demographics haven’t changed and more people than ever are either leaving the industry or not entering it.

The pilot market ebbs and flows much like any markets do.

The people who will be the most successful are the ones who either settle in the good times or persist in the bad. Those who only waited for the last pilot boom probably saw their entire career progression erased last year unless they stayed away from the airlines.

[ATC_Anstey]

I've heard that local flight schools in my area are expecting a pilot shortage, and thus more enrollment in the near future for similar reasons mentioned in the article. I didn't really buy it, but who knows. I guess we'll find out, that's what the schools are apparently prepping for.

All flight schools cry impending pilot shortage, as do AMT colleges about impending technician shortage, they’re not going to say “lots of guys are available but most don’t like the pay and no schedule”

This isn't public speak I'm hearing. Obviously they wouldn't outwardly say that regardless of their internal plans. Just what I've heard from working at the tower where I am. For what it's worth their traffic levels are higher than ever, they're buying more airplanes and hiring more instructors than ever. I do know there's a bit of a backlog of students that were slowed by the pandemic so there's obviously going to be a lot of catch up. But it sounds like they're planning around having more traffic than ever before in the next 2 years.

[Bug_Stomper_01]

I've heard that local flight schools in my area are expecting a pilot shortage, and thus more enrollment in the near future for similar reasons mentioned in the article. I didn't really buy it, but who knows. I guess we'll find out, that's what the schools are apparently prepping for.

All flight schools cry impending pilot shortage, as do AMT colleges about impending technician shortage, they’re not going to say “lots of guys are available but most don’t like the pay and no schedule”

This isn't public speak I'm hearing. Obviously they wouldn't outwardly say that regardless of their internal plans. Just what I've heard from working at the tower where I am. For what it's worth their traffic levels are higher than ever, they're buying more airplanes and hiring more instructors than ever. I do know there's a bit of a backlog of students that were slowed by the pandemic so there's obviously going to be a lot of catch up. But it sounds like they're planning around having more traffic than ever before in the next 2 years.

For flight training I agree. I’ve seen that too.