JetBlue's coming North

[Freetime]

Unless I am misunderstanding something the carbon tax will also have a huge benefit for any American airlines flying into Canada.

[thenoflyzone]

It will be interesting to see how Air Canada/WestJet react to this. JetBlue has a fantastic premium-class product on their A321s in their Mint class, with lie-flat seats and pods - nothing that either AC or WS currently offer on their narrow-body fleets are comparable. I'm predicting a bloodbath in the Canadian market over the next 1-2 years, as our domestic airlines will be on their back foot and struggling to pay off debt and return to profitability. Meanwhile, the American carriers, which have received substantial financial assistance from the US gov't, will be able to dump capacity into the Canadian market at a loss in order to capture market share.

Nothing comparable on AC or WS narrowbody fleet, no. But that is why AC used to send the Dreamliner on YVR-EWR, YYZ-LAX, etc and also partly why AC uses widebodies on domestic transcons. For the J product. It also helps with fleet utilization.

More importantly however, JetBlue, which currently has a fleet of around 270 aircraft, only has 36 aircraft equipped with the Mint product. YVR-JFK/BOS will cater for the leisure (mostly US) crowd, going on cruises out of YVR, etc. Which means Jetblue won’t be sending their mint A321s to Canada.

YVR-BOS/JFK will most likely be flown with the CSeries, which doesn’t have Mint.

There is also a chance the routes don’t materialize as well. Let’s not forget they only start in summer 2022. That’s a long way off. That being said, both those markets out of YVR are underserved, so should do well for B6.

Historically US carriers have struggled to serve YVR-JFK consistently year round. Let’s see how B6 does. The CSeries will help in that regard, especially during the slower winter months, by keeping the costs in check. BOS will be summer seasonal only, so should do fine.

[thenoflyzone]

It will be interesting if they expand to Toronto or Montreal, or to west coast destinations from YVR. That could be challenging for Canadian carriers.

There is a reason they chose YVR-JFK/BOS and not YUL/YYZ-Florida or New York. The YVR routes are underserved and therefore could command a nice premium for a non stop service. The YUL/YYZ routes, however, especially the ones to Florida, are very well served with trash yields.

Bottom line, you won’t be seeing Jetblue in YYZ or YUL.

[Cavalier44]

It will be interesting to see how Air Canada/WestJet react to this. JetBlue has a fantastic premium-class product on their A321s in their Mint class, with lie-flat seats and pods - nothing that either AC or WS currently offer on their narrow-body fleets are comparable. I'm predicting a bloodbath in the Canadian market over the next 1-2 years, as our domestic airlines will be on their back foot and struggling to pay off debt and return to profitability. Meanwhile, the American carriers, which have received substantial financial assistance from the US gov't, will be able to dump capacity into the Canadian market at a loss in order to capture market share.

Nothing comparable on AC or WS narrowbody fleet, no. But that is why AC used to send the Dreamliner on YVR-EWR, YYZ-LAX, etc and also partly why AC uses widebodies on domestic transcons. For the J product. It also helps with fleet utilization.

More importantly however, JetBlue, which currently has a fleet of around 270 aircraft, only has 36 aircraft equipped with the Mint product. YVR-JFK/BOS will cater for the leisure (mostly US) crowd, going on cruises out of YVR, etc. Which means Jetblue won’t be sending their mint A321s to Canada.

YVR-BOS/JFK will most likely be flown with the CSeries, which doesn’t have Mint.

There is also a chance the routes don’t materialize as well. Let’s not forget they only start in summer 2022. That’s a long way off. That being said, both those markets out of YVR are underserved, so should do well for B6.

Historically US carriers have struggled to serve YVR-JFK consistently year round. Let’s see how B6 does. The CSeries will help in that regard, especially during the slower winter months, by keeping the costs in check. BOS will be summer seasonal only, so should do fine.

I think you’re making a lot of assumptions about what JetBlue will or won’t do - as you said, these routes are a long way off, and a lot can change between now and 2022. For starters, JetBlue has deployed Mint on a number of routes which aren’t traditionally thought of as business-heavy routes, but on which premium yields are still high enough to justify deploying the Mint product (I.e. Aruba, Barbados, Liberia, St. Lucia, etc.). These are traditionally thought of as leisure destinations but there is enough premium demand on these routes to justify the use of the Mint-configured A321s.

I would argue that Vancouver falls into a similar niche - JetBlue can simultaneously attract the traditional economy passengers based on a competitive fare cost, but they will also be able to entice the conscientious business traveller who might elect to purchase a cheaper Mint fare to JFK than the comparable business class product on an Air Canada Dreamliner to EWR. As you said, JetBlue is starting to receive the CSeries as well, so I think the argument that Mint-configured A321s are too few in number is not justified - they will likely have surplus aircraft for the next few years as older models are replaced. JetBlue can easily reconfigure aircraft as appropriate and as demand dictates.

[thenoflyzone]

I think you’re making a lot of assumptions about what JetBlue will or won’t do - as you said, these routes are a long way off, and a lot can change between now and 2022. For starters, JetBlue has deployed Mint on a number of routes which aren’t traditionally thought of as business-heavy routes, but on which premium yields are still high enough to justify deploying the Mint product (I.e. Aruba, Barbados, Liberia, St. Lucia, etc.). These are traditionally thought of as leisure destinations but there is enough premium demand on these routes to justify the use of the Mint-configured A321s.

I would argue that Vancouver falls into a similar niche - JetBlue can simultaneously attract the traditional economy passengers based on a competitive fare cost, but they will also be able to entice the conscientious business traveller who might elect to purchase a cheaper Mint fare to JFK than the comparable business class product on an Air Canada Dreamliner to EWR. As you said, JetBlue is starting to receive the CSeries as well, so I think the argument that Mint-configured A321s are too few in number is not justified - they will likely have surplus aircraft for the next few years as older models are replaced. JetBlue can easily reconfigure aircraft as appropriate and as demand dictates.

Not assumptions. More like 1 educated guess based on facts.

1. We all know leisure travel will pick up ahead of business travel. That's a fact. All the industry experts agree, and all airline announcements lately support that fact.

2. All those new cities Jetblue announced a few days ago, are all mostly aimed for the leisure traveller. (PVR, MCI, SAP, MKE, etc)

3. With YVR-JFK being underserved all these years, how come B6 didn't launch the route before, especially if the route could support a mint equipped A321, as you claim?

4. None of the other US3 bring in their premium heavy narrowbodies into YVR, so why would B6 be any different?

5. From my readings on other forums about B6, seems like they don't have enough Mint equipped aircraft to go around right now. And the CSeries are replacing the 60 E190s they currently have, so there is very little net gain there.

5. Knowing all the 5 points above, it's pretty safe to conclude that none of these new B6 routes will get a Mint equipped A321 at all, or certainly not on a consistent basis.

Sure, YVR could get a Mint equipped A321 here and there, or maybe for the inaugural, but the routes will most likely be flown with a CSeries (or non-Mint equipped A320/A321) 90%+ of the time.

Fairly confident in my "assumptions". We'll know for sure in a few months, once booking becomes avlb.

[NotDirty!]

I wonder how much of a payload restriction they will have on a 321 doing BOS-YVR.... IIRC that’s getting near the max range on the standard 321; I’m not sure what they have regarding ACTs.

[thenoflyzone]

I wonder how much of a payload restriction they will have on a 321 doing BOS-YVR.... IIRC that’s getting near the max range on the standard 321; I’m not sure what they have regarding ACTs.

Jetblue bought the A321 with these longer transcon routes in mind, so I don't think there would be any restriction, really. They were also one of the first carriers to utilize the sharklet retrofit program, so most of their A321ceo's have sharklets, which boosts range. Their A321ceo's routinely do BOS-LAX, which is longer than BOS-YVR.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/b6387

Also, BOS-YVR will be a summer seasonal route, meaning no brutal near 200 kt winter headwinds.

BOS-LAX is 2269 nm
BOS-YVR is 2184 nm.
A321ceo with sharklet max range - 3200 nm

Even if they were to use an older CEO without sharklets, it should still be doable without restrictions. And let's not forget B6 has plenty of NEOs in their fleet (with a range of 3,500 nm) and orders for LR and XLR versions as well.

[Bug_Stomper_01]

Oh good! Making the dogshit rates even dog shittier for pilots and ames alike! Woohoo!

[NotDirty!]

I had a quick look at AirlinePilotCentral.... I wouldn't turn my nose up at their rates, especially given the USD exchange rate!

Code: Select all

JETBLUE AIRWAYS PAYSCALES
CAPTAIN PAY SCALE (Hourly)
Year	 	A320	A321	E190	E195	 	 
12	 	269	269	215	215	 	 
11	 	266	266	213	213	 	 
10	 	262	262	211	211	 	 
9	 	259	259	209	209	 	 
8	 	256	256	207	207	 	 
7	 	253	253	205	205	 	 
6	 	249	249	203	203	 	 
5	 	246	246	200	200	 	 
4	 	243	243	198	198	 	 
3	 	240	240	196	196	 	 
2	 	237	237	194	194	 	 
1	 	234	234	192	192	 	 
FIRST OFFICER PAY SCALE (Hourly)
Year	 	A320	A321	E190	E195	 	 
12	 	180	180	146	146	 	 
11	 	176	176	145	145	 	 
10	 	174	174	141	141	 	 
9	 	169	169	139	139	 	 
8	 	165	165	135	135	 	 
7	 	162	162	133	133	 	 
6	 	159	159	130	130	 	 
5	 	158	158	124	124	 	 
4	 	154	154	120	120	 	 
3	 	142	142	116	116	 	 
2	 	121	121	100	100	 	 
1	 	89	89	89	89

[Hangry]

Oh good! Making the dogshit rates even dog shittier for pilots and ames alike! Woohoo!

Completely ignorant comment. Look above.

[Bug_Stomper_01]

Oh good! Making the dogshit rates even dog shittier for pilots and ames alike! Woohoo!

Completely ignorant comment. Look above.

They going to hire locals and have a canadian aoc and amo or what? As far as I can tell they stay N registered

[Bug_Stomper_01]

Oh good! Making the dogshit rates even dog shittier for pilots and ames alike! Woohoo!

Completely ignorant comment. Look above.

If so then I digress but if not it’s bad news for Canada’s air operators

[FlyingLion]

Oh good! Making the dogshit rates even dog shittier for pilots and ames alike! Woohoo!

Completely ignorant comment. Look above.

They going to hire locals and have a canadian aoc and amo or what? As far as I can tell they stay N registered

Nope... And I hope that they never think about hiring Canadians, they have the tendency to have a s***** mentality. No wonder why the payscales for pilots in Canada are so ridiculous compared to the rest of the world.

[Bug_Stomper_01]

Completely ignorant comment. Look above.

They going to hire locals and have a canadian aoc and amo or what? As far as I can tell they stay N registered

Nope... And I hope that they never think about hiring Canadians, they have the tendency to have a s***** mentality. No wonder why the payscales for pilots in Canada are so ridiculous compared to the rest of the world.

That’s what I thought, so I guess it wasn’t a “ Completely ignorant comment”

[JBI]

One thing to keep in mind with regard to this announcement is that on the YVR-JFK route, there actually used to be additional direct "5th Freedom" flights from Cathay Pacific and Philippine Airlines. I've have taken both before (Cathay on passes and Philippine as a regular passenger). The times were awful, but the service was great! On Philippine we were able to get round trip business class for less than premium economy on AC.

Even before COVID, both airlines were stopping the route. So when you actually look at available capacity on that route, there are two less 777s on the route now. Great to have competition, but also need to remember that AC had their 787-8 on the YVR-EWR route, so there's definitely competition for the business class travellers already there.

[confusedalot]

sad indeed for canadian aviation. americans have to save the day. good for them, not a very good legacy for canadian aviation pioneers.

i firmly blame politicians for this situation. politicians are merely a reflection of the population.

canada was at least near the top, now they are near last. maybe a bit better than a handful of third world countries, but not by much.

been an interesting ride, not so sure i would do it again.

[Bug_Stomper_01]

sad indeed for canadian aviation. americans have to save the day. good for them, not a very good legacy for canadian aviation pioneers.

i firmly blame politicians for this situation. politicians are merely a reflection of the population.

canada was at least near the top, now they are near last. maybe a bit better than a handful of third world countries, but not by much.

been an interesting ride, not so sure i would do it again.

Canada’s government and many of its citizens have had a love hate relationship with commercial flying for a very long time. From the Diefenbaker / Avro arrow to both Trudeau’s and bombardier to Ward Air - Canadian - Air Canada to 911 to Trudeau and now COVID19 brick wall. Would I do it again knowing now what I didn’t know then? NO.... then again who knows what a 17 year old me with this knowledge would do all over again lol. Definitely no end in sight to the C registered parking lot nation wide. Should be an interesting next few years for sure.