Will the shortage return?

[pitottubey]

Will the shortage/hiring return and if so when, and how long do people think it will last. I realize no one has a crystal ball but I wanted to get a sense of where peoples heads are at.

[qwe221sd]

I don't think there was a shortage in the world, not to mention post covid19

[Ash Ketchum]

I think around 2025 we will see increased hiring similar to what we saw from 2016-2019.

[montado]

While airlines in America are hiring new pilots, some Canadian airlines are offering new rounds of early retirement. Good luck with a “shortage” of pilots.

[digits_]

I would guess about 3 years after the covid travel restrictions are gone.

[Gear Jerker]

Has there been a fundamental change in travel demand?

My crystal ball, which is informed by a variety of analyst reports and forecasts, suggests that certain markets will recover rapidly to pre pandemic levels once restrictions are lifted and government rhetoric changes - for instance, North America leisure travel. Meanwhile, certain markets will not recover immediately; ie business travel between North America and Asia.

Meanwhile, the reality of baby boomer retirements not changed, as that age clock continues ticking. AC's retirement wave has been underway for several years, while WestJet's is still a few years away.

So given those assumptions, I say yes, but it will be a few years down the road. Anywhere between 2023 and 2025 sound plausible to me, with 2025 pilot shortages the more likely scenario.

My 2 cents

[scdriver]

With absolutely no special information my best guess would be that hiring could be back to pre COVID levels in the next 3-5 years. As has been said above its likely that leisure travel will return and I bet it will return in a big way. This won’t take 3-5 years to materialize but getting back to the crazy movement probably will.

[C-GGGQ]

Has there been a fundamental change in travel demand?

My crystal ball, which is informed by a variety of analyst reports and forecasts, suggests that certain markets will recover rapidly to pre pandemic levels once restrictions are lifted and government rhetoric changes - for instance, North America leisure travel. Meanwhile, certain markets will not recover immediately; ie business travel between North America and Asia.

Meanwhile, the reality of baby boomer retirements not changed, as that age clock continues ticking. AC's retirement wave has been underway for several years, while WestJet's is still a few years away.

So given those assumptions, I say yes, but it will be a few years down the road. Anywhere between 2023 and 2025 sound plausible to me, with 2025 pilot shortages the more likely scenario.

My 2 cents

Exactly. If anything all these early retirement packages will accelerate the shortage that was already evident pre covid. I’ll be more optimistic even summer 2022 flights will be back to pre covid levels. Hiring…. Well thats more dependant on the HR machine being able to actually pump people through.

[challenger_nami]

.

Yes,
.some kind of pilot shortage will come back in a couple of years ....
. then the new pilots will be in demand for a couple of years and everyone is gonna be happy
. Until the next CRISIS hits and then everything gets fu**ed up for all of us for a couple of years.

That is Aviation’s boom-bust cycle for you.... it keeps repeating as it has for the last couple of decades.

.

[pitottubey]

but not every crisis has to mean everyones laid off right (like covid)? just less hiring especially if theres an underlying shortage

[Julian.B]

Hard to judge really. If you ask your family members and friends you'll probably find out that most of us are suffering from a sever form of "Cabin fever". Most of us can't wait to travel. While many will face some sort of financial hardship, there are lots of people that have saved a good chunk of change (me included) as a result of not being able to travel. My family and I normally spend around $10,000 a year on travel. I haven't spent a penny in that regard since we were not really allowed to go anywhere worth our time. Our next vacation will be somewhere in Italy and I will spare no expense. I can't wait.

Like one the the members said above, business travel will see a permanent decline. This pandemic has proven to many companies that people can work from home and business meetings can be made online via platforms such as ZOOM. Sure, some will still travel, but nowhere near at the levels of the pre pandemic world.

[valleyboy]

some Canadian airlines are offering new rounds of early retirement

That's a cost cutting tactic that has been going on for years. All airlines like to get rid of their top wage earners.

The industry will always be cyclic and while covid caused almost a vertical drop from the crest is the trough any deeper than the last time it bottomed out.

Trends take time to appear and another factor in "pilot shortage" is the number of people who bailed on the idea of being a career pilot. When school enrolment drops it eventually has an impact and adds to shortages.

With retirements and upgrades one of the main questions should be "how long to a money seat" that also should be a factor in deciding if you want to ride the tail of the dragon.

The other daunting question, in my mind, "when will jobs be lost to automation" - if you are starting now and looking ahead 20 to 25 years (which could only be half you career potential) will jobs be fewer and pay less due to this slowly advancing tech in aviation.

[Big Pistons Forever]

Well there are 5 positive indicators

1) in December of 2019 Air Canada was 800 pilots short and the industry cumulative shortage for 704/705 operators was easily over 2000.

2) Due to the new flight and duty time rules 705 operators will need about 10% more pilots to fly the same schedule than was traditionally the case

3) There has been an unprecedented wave of early retirements

4) There are young FO’s in the regionals that went straight from a C 172 to Dash or RJ. Many have started a new career and are not looking at getting back on the junior FO roller coaster. I know of 2 who told me they been there done that with airline flying and are making way more in their current non aviation gig. When the airline phones they are taking a hard pass

5) There have been many downturns in the flying game. Personally this time is the 4th time in my flying career that the industry cratered, however every time it eventually came back bigger than it was.

Given the above I see a major pilot shortage as inevitable. The only question is when and personally I think it is going to happen sooner than most prognostications. I think there is going to be crazy hiring by late 2022.

[tsgarp]

Given the rising inflation rate and the recession it is going to cause don’t look for another hiring binge for another 5 to 10 years. Assuming we don’t wind up in a civil war or complete economic collapse.

[Bug_Stomper_01]

Hard to judge really. If you ask your family members and friends you'll probably find out that most of us are suffering from a sever form of "Cabin fever". Most of us can't wait to travel. While many will face some sort of financial hardship, there are lots of people that have saved a good chunk of change (me included) as a result of not being able to travel. My family and I normally spend around $10,000 a year on travel. I haven't spent a penny in that regard since we were not really allowed to go anywhere worth our time. Our next vacation will be somewhere in Italy and I will spare no expense. I can't wait.

Like one the the members said above, business travel will see a permanent decline. This pandemic has proven to many companies that people can work from home and business meetings can be made online via platforms such as ZOOM. Sure, some will still travel, but nowhere near at the levels of the pre pandemic world.

I agree, business travel itself is a farce with today’s technology it’s not even required. Advances in remote communication technology will replace a large amount of business flight. That being said most business travel for the last 20 years has pretty much been a matter of luxury vacation travel over necessity. The crystal ball I have is very much cloudy but one thing is for certain, those that want to travel for “business” will and those that used to “have to” won’t any longer. Very much a double edged sword this situation is. As a whole it will be down to 60ish percent of its height capacity in 2019 with the post COVID19 recovery I think. Analytical companies like WingX have predicted that percentage for the USA, and as for Canada’s business flight group being 1/50 of USA’s or less I wouldn’t be surprised if more machines flip to N registration with Canada’s much stricter travel restrictions which have no indications of letting up any time soon.

[Bug_Stomper_01]

Well there are 5 positive indicators

1) in December of 2019 Air Canada was 800 pilots short and the industry cumulative shortage for 704/705 operators was easily over 2000.

2) Due to the new flight and duty time rules 705 operators will need about 10% more pilots to fly the same schedule than was traditionally the case

3) There has been an unprecedented wave of early retirements

4) There are young FO’s in the regionals that went straight from a C 172 to Dash or RJ. Many have started a new career and are not looking at getting back on the junior FO roller coaster. I know of 2 who told me they been there done that with airline flying and are making way more in their current non aviation gig. When the airline phones they are taking a hard pass

5) There have been many downturns in the flying game. Personally this time is the 4th time in my flying career that the industry cratered, however every time it eventually came back bigger than it was.

Given the above I see a major pilot shortage as inevitable. The only question is when and personally I think it is going to happen sooner than most prognostications. I think there is going to be crazy hiring by late 2022.

I certainly hope you’re right, however seeing how slow the reparations to the populations restrictions are with mutations of this virus it’s not likely going to rebound before 2026

[CL-Skadoo!]

I think aviation will recover, it is dynamic and always does. However, there is one variable that I am curious about regarding the timing. Has anyone tried to buy grown up toys lately? RVs, trailers, boats, motorcycles, snowmobiles and provincial vacation properties are very difficult to get. There is a group of people that have adapted their leisure time away from long distance travel and allocated their funds accordingly. This is the group that concerns me. will they be the ones lined up at YYZ three hours early to board a cramped aircraft and have pretzels thrown at them by a scowl faced FA? Unlikely. They have found their escapes eslewhere. What portion of the population this represents is difficult to measure but it can’t be ignored.

It will be up to aviation to adapt to win people like this back and I believe it can be done, it may just take some time. I think we’ll have solid answers by the fall when vaccinated people start to feel winter bearing down on them once again.

[newlygrounded]

Well there are 5 positive indicators

1) in December of 2019 Air Canada was 800 pilots short and the industry cumulative shortage for 704/705 operators was easily over 2000.

2) Due to the new flight and duty time rules 705 operators will need about 10% more pilots to fly the same schedule than was traditionally the case

3) There has been an unprecedented wave of early retirements

4) There are young FO’s in the regionals that went straight from a C 172 to Dash or RJ. Many have started a new career and are not looking at getting back on the junior FO roller coaster. I know of 2 who told me they been there done that with airline flying and are making way more in their current non aviation gig. When the airline phones they are taking a hard pass

5) There have been many downturns in the flying game. Personally this time is the 4th time in my flying career that the industry cratered, however every time it eventually came back bigger than it was.

Given the above I see a major pilot shortage as inevitable. The only question is when and personally I think it is going to happen sooner than most prognostications. I think there is going to be crazy hiring by late 2022.

Honestly, with this bullshit 14 day quarantine and the government giving impossible numbers to get rid of it (75% 2nd dose vaccine uptake which nobody has accomplished) we'd be lucky even be at 50% capacity in 2022

[fish4life]

The big issue is the pilots with the least experience are the ones that are laid off and not gaining any so when it turns around they will be no closer to upgradable than they were 1.5 years ago

[digits_]

The big issue is the pilots with the least experience are the ones that are laid off and not gaining any so when it turns around they will be no closer to upgradable than they were 1.5 years ago

Not necessarily. The northern grocery/medevac operators are doing ok. Those new pilots are gaining experience. The new hires at the airlines aren't gaining experience, but they are usually protected by some collective agreement with regards to recall rights.

[Kosiw]

Protected unless you were one of the unlucky ones who's hiring and course date got torpedoed by COVID last year..gotta be at least a few hundred affected if you add up all the airlines that stopped hiring in 2020.

[W5]

No idea about their interest but a fair assessment:

AFTER COVID-19, AVIATION FACES A PILOT SHORTAGE

https://www.oliverwyman.com/our-experti ... rtage.html

For the past few years, securing a pipeline of new pilots has been a primary concern for airlines around the world. In a 2019 Oliver Wyman poll of flight operations leaders, 62 percent listed a shortage of qualified pilots as a key risk. The root cause of the coming shortage varies by region: In the United States, it’s an aging workforce facing mandatory retirement, fewer pilots exiting the military, and barriers to entry, including the cost of training. In China and other regions where a burgeoning middle class is demanding air travel, the struggle is to expand capacity fast enough.

The impact also depends on the class of carrier, with 83 percent of regional carriers finding it challenging to recruit talent compared with 22 percent of low-cost carriers. Despite these differences, there were few regions in the world that weren’t dealing with how to secure enough pilots to fuel future growth.

Nearly overnight, with the outbreak of COVID-19, the conversation shifted from shortage to surplus. For carriers that were struggling with pilot supply, this has provided a momentary reprieve. It will not last, and decisions taken today to survive the coronavirus pandemic may threaten the ability of airlines in some regions to recover and grow in the future.

The return of demand

A major question facing the aviation industry is when demand will return. For passenger recovery, estimates range from early 2022 to 2024 and beyond. For pilots, however, demand is driven by aircraft departures and utilization rather than passengers. The global in-service fleet has already recovered in size to 76 percent of pre-COVID levels. In China, where the outbreak was earlier and better controlled, the in-service fleet is already at 99 percent. While utilization and resulting block hours still lag historic levels globally, we expect the demand for pilots to proceed the recovery of passenger growth by two to three quarters.

In recent years, airlines have provided a more direct path to the cockpit for new pilots, expanding cadet training programs and providing financing. With COVID, many of the airline pipeline levers have come under pressure. Faced with mounting costs and a pilot surplus, cadet programs are being trimmed. Some of the banks that have supported the financing are reconsidering the risk profile of a new pilot cadet. Finally, the attraction of a stable and lucrative career path now looks much less secure.

These trends have created a supply shock. Pilot candidates will think twice about entering such a cyclical industry. Many furloughed pilots will return, but some may pursue other opportunities. Finally, airlines in some regions have relied heavily on early retirements to reduce costs, which will permanently decrease the supply. Looking at past crises such as 9/11 and the global financial crisis, new pilot certifications fell 30 to 40 percent during the five years after the initial shock. With the global nature of this shock, we believe 25,000 to 35,000 current and future pilots may choose alternative career paths over the next decade.

Emergence of the pilot shortage

The most important question is not whether a pilot shortage will reemerge, but when it will occur and how large the gap will be between supply and demand. Based on a modest recovery scenario, we believe a global pilot shortage will emerge in certain regions no later than 2023 and most probably before. However, with a more rapid recovery and greater supply shocks, this could be felt as early as late this year. Regarding magnitude, in our most likely scenarios, there is a global gap of 34,000 pilots by 2025. This could be as high as 50,000 in the most extreme scenarios. Eventually, the impact of furloughs, retirements, and defections will create very real challenges for even some of the biggest carriers. One cushion airlines have created consists of 100,000 pilots still on payroll but flying reduced schedules or on voluntary company leave. In the US, such programs have been very popular and will provide the airline some flexibility once the industry begins to recover.

Perhaps more important than the global view are the regional projections. Recovery is not expected to be uniform across the globe and each region has its own demographic considerations. In our analysis, North American, Asia Pacific, and the Middle East are likely to see the largest shortages while Europe, Africa, and Latin America remain closer to equilibrium. In North America, with an aging pilot population and heavy use of early retirements, the shortage reemerges quickly and is projected to reach over 12,000 pilots by 2023 — 13 percent of total demand. However, Asia Pacific, with a faster growth trajectory will surpass this by the end of the decade with a projected shortage of 23,000 pilots by 2029. This can have real implications on the timing and depth of regional shortages as pilots migrate to areas of opportunity, potentially accelerating or deepening shortages in other regions.

In Europe, the supply and demand of pilots are expected to be balanced over the next three to four years. A few European airlines even suspended training and recommended to pilots in training that they abandon the profession altogether. Our view is not so radical since these very candidates will be necessary in the longer term in Europe and could provide valuable service elsewhere across the globe, particularly in Asia.


What airlines can do

For airlines who are currently struggling to right size the operation and remain solvent, the idea of a pilot shortage is far from top of mind. However, it has the real potential to limit their ability to regrow and rebuild their operation in the coming years. There are three main areas where airlines can help to reduce the impact of future pilot shortages:

Reduce pilot demand: Take the opportunity to rethink crew operations and improve crew productivity, thereby reducing the total pilots required, while driving down costs in the process
Reinforce the pipeline: Continue to invest in training programs and pilot recruitment, including resolving emerging financing challenges
Engage the workforce: Recognize the likelihood of increased competition, particularly for furloughed pilots, and actively engage to improve retention
How quickly airlines can regrow their operation will be guided by how quickly they can regrow their pilot ranks. Those that take action now increase the agility of the airline to capture demand as it recovers.

[notwhoyouthinkIam]

The issue here is that airline recovery is being dictated by the government.

Our governments are controlling the taps. At first it was for the better, but we've reached a point where it's as awkward as someone breast feeding a six year old.

[acpaleaks]

Well Trudeau said no election until the pandemic is "over" so IMO, if we do see a fall election we will see the border open up. Would be hypocritical otherwise to have an election with the country still locked off from the rest of the world when all of parliament agreed no election until it's over.

[Inverted2]

Well Trudeau said no election until the pandemic is "over" so IMO, if we do see a fall election we will see the border open up. Would be hypocritical otherwise to have an election with the country still locked off from the rest of the world when all of parliament agreed no election until it's over.

If he keeps the plandemic alive and calls an election he could allow mail in ballots though. Look at the can of worms that opened south of the border. Don’t under estimate the Turd.