"Three possible Transat suitors say they are not interested in acquiring struggling airline"

[Sharklasers]

Is Air Transat a meme stock?

No, I bought them seriously. They are scheduled to start operations at the end of July, at which point I hope their stock will shoot upward.

Serious question though, pre covid and the AC merger and all the future debt obligations and smaller operation that all entails Transat was a $5 share company so it seems like a healthy recovery is already priced into the stock. Where do you see Transats stockprice going after covid? It seems that according to this morning reports even for a Canadian airline right now Transat is a very sick animal.

[notwhoyouthinkIam]

Is Air Transat a meme stock?

No, I bought them seriously. They are scheduled to start operations at the end of July, at which point I hope their stock will shoot upward.

Serious question though, pre covid and the AC merger and all the future debt obligations and smaller operation that all entails Transat was a $5 share company so it seems like a healthy recovery is already priced into the stock. Where do you see Transats stockprice going after covid? It seems that according to this morning reports even for a Canadian airline right now Transat is a very sick animal.

There is bound to be a rebound once the company has revenue again. Worst case scenario, I'm out a few hundred dollars.

[rudder]

It is either a ‘dead cat bounce’ or somebody knows something (or is a really good guesser).

Trading volume not particularly eye-catching.

Transat AT needs to be recapitalized. It will have to be a third party. I would still not rule out a court supervised restructuring or a voluntary restructuring.

[777Aviate]

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/t ... 67645.html

"While the availability of a vaccine makes it possible to hope for the resumption of operations at a certain level during 2021, the Corporation does not expect such level to reach the pre-pandemic level before 2023."

[rudder]

Strategic plan

The Corporation has developed its plan for future years, setting the following objectives:

During 2021, stabilize the business by streamlining operations and laying the foundations for a recovery that will ensure the Corporation's long-term viability after the pandemic;
During the 2022-2026 period, make the Corporation profitable again and complete its transformation to achieve a level of profitability that exceeds pre-pandemic levels, as well as grow in new markets;
After 2026: leverage those achievements to propel Transat toward a new growth phase.
To that end, Transat will implement or continue certain changes:

Refocus airline operations and redefine the network by ensuring a greater presence in Eastern Canada and Montréal and forging alliances to strengthen the network;
Reduce costs and increase flexibility, particularly by renegotiating some commitments (fleet, real estate, etc.), by refocusing on airline businesses (discontinuation of the hotel division) and a significant simplifying of the organization;
Optimize financing structure over the long term;
Increase efficiency by streamlining the fleet and bringing its average age down, around two types of Airbus aircraft, improving aircraft usage, reducing seasonal fluctuations and enhancing revenue management practices.

Discontinuation of the hotel division

On May 20, 2021, due to the decline in liquidity as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, and in line with the objectives of the new strategic plan, the Corporation's Board of Directors approved the discontinuation of the hotel division's operations.

[rudder]

https://www.transat.com/getmedia/c17604 ... 1.pdf.aspx

See page 18 - fleet.

Air Transat is going to be a much smaller airline.

[Cavalier44]

Discontinuation of the hotel division

On May 20, 2021, due to the decline in liquidity as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, and in line with the objectives of the new strategic plan, the Corporation's Board of Directors approved the discontinuation of the hotel division's operations.

It may not be widely known, but Sunwing Travel Group has been seeing a period of significant expansion over the last year, adding more hotels in Mexico and the Caribbean despite the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. I wonder if this will be an opportunity for them to snap up additional properties at a discount rate?

Given that Transat was the only competitor to Sunwing that also adopted the "vertical integration" model of owning both hotels and the airline itself, having Transat exit this market could leave Sunwing in a dominant position going forward in the Canadian leisure travel sector. AC/TRZ/WS may be able to compete by offering lower fares, but if they're flying their own guests down to Sunwing-owned properties, it's still a net benefit to SWG.

I'm curious about what exiting the hotel sector signals for the long-term strategy at TRZ; are they planning to pivot from Winter vacation travel to more of a low-cost long-haul model based around their A321LRs, serving more European destinations from Montreal and Eastern Canada? Interesting times ahead.

[notwhoyouthinkIam]

https://www.transat.com/getmedia/c17604 ... 1.pdf.aspx

See page 18 - fleet.

Air Transat is going to be a much smaller airline.

Until you factor in the 10 additional A321LRs that are incoming over the next two and a half years.

[rudder]

https://www.transat.com/getmedia/c17604 ... 1.pdf.aspx

See page 18 - fleet.

Air Transat is going to be a much smaller airline.

Until you factor in the 10 additional A321LRs that are incoming over the next two and a half years.

Don’t forget the further removals of 330’s….. see note on page 18 on the A330 line:

“ 2 aircraft matured at the end of the year and 3 early terminations signed at the end of summer; On-going efforts to reduce this number further”

[notwhoyouthinkIam]

https://www.transat.com/getmedia/c17604 ... 1.pdf.aspx

See page 18 - fleet.

Air Transat is going to be a much smaller airline.

Until you factor in the 10 additional A321LRs that are incoming over the next two and a half years.

Don’t forget the further removals of 330’s….. see note on page 18 on the A330 line:

“ 2 aircraft matured at the end of the year and 3 early terminations signed at the end of summer; On-going efforts to reduce this number further”

They make more money with sun destinations than their scheduled services to Europe. It's not surprising.

Hopefully they make a strong recovery and are able to expand once again.

[rudder]

Certainly appears from listening to the analyst call that the plan is to focus on being an airline based operation. Smaller operational fleet. Smaller gauge. Increased utilization. Less seasonality. No more subcontracted capacity.

Will be interesting to see how that turns out. There will be lots of competition out there.

[rudder]

Stock is up quite a bit over 7-14 days. Something is up.

I wonder if PKP is going to increase his offer?

Will still need much more to stabilize the balance sheet.

[Lucky Luke]

Multiple Transat aircraft where parked at the gates of the terminal at YUL today anyone know what they where doing?

[fish4life]

Stock is up quite a bit over 7-14 days. Something is up.

I wonder if PKP is going to increase his offer?

Will still need much more to stabilize the balance sheet.

There has been announcements of quarantine restrictions being lifted for fully vaxxed Canadians over the last week and a bit so that could be more related to it.

[sanjet]

Multiple Transat aircraft where parked at the gates of the terminal at YUL today anyone know what they where doing?

I would consider that a good sign for our colleagues at TRZ. I would imagine training ramping up and some potential touch n go’s to certify training captains.

[notwhoyouthinkIam]

Multiple Transat aircraft where parked at the gates of the terminal at YUL today anyone know what they where doing?

Transat is not operating scheduled service until at least July 31, but it's possible that they are still offering charter services.

[Kosiw]

Air Transat unveils its winter 2021-22 program

https://canadianaviationnews.wordpress. ... 2-program/

[FICU]

Abandoning flights south out of western Canada... interesting.

[330heavy]

Abandoning flights south out of western Canada... interesting.

Righting the inefficiencies of years past among others. Investors seem happy. Good future outlook, which Canadian aviation needs.

[sanjet]

Air Transat unveils its winter 2021-22 program

https://canadianaviationnews.wordpress. ... 2-program/

I’d imagine most pilots will get recalled in the coming months? That’s a good amount of flying.

[Localizer]

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/ ... 29408.html

I think most people will be happy this deal is quashed.

[rudder]

“As contemplated in its strategic plan, the outline of which was revealed publicly on June 10, Transat also intends to examine possibilities to optimize its financing structure, which could include the issuance of shares of its capital or bond financing on more favorable terms than those attached to a portion of the liquidities made available to Transat under the Large Employer Emergency Financing Facility (LEEFF).”

Easier said than done.

[chaster]

“As contemplated in its strategic plan, the outline of which was revealed publicly on June 10, Transat also intends to examine possibilities to optimize its financing structure, which could include the issuance of shares of its capital or bond financing on more favorable terms than those attached to a portion of the liquidities made available to Transat under the Large Employer Emergency Financing Facility (LEEFF).”

Easier said than done.

Don't Worry Rudder If worst comes to worst the QC Govt will kick In for Transat !AT are not going anywhere )

[rudder]

“As contemplated in its strategic plan, the outline of which was revealed publicly on June 10, Transat also intends to examine possibilities to optimize its financing structure, which could include the issuance of shares of its capital or bond financing on more favorable terms than those attached to a portion of the liquidities made available to Transat under the Large Employer Emergency Financing Facility (LEEFF).”

Easier said than done.

Don't Worry Rudder If worst comes to worst the QC Govt will kick In for Transat !AT are not going anywhere )

If there were a stock offering (let’s say fully subscribed by QC govt or an agency thereof) it would dilute the existing shareholder value.

Hence, today’s sell off.

[chaster]

“As contemplated in its strategic plan, the outline of which was revealed publicly on June 10, Transat also intends to examine possibilities to optimize its financing structure, which could include the issuance of shares of its capital or bond financing on more favorable terms than those attached to a portion of the liquidities made available to Transat under the Large Employer Emergency Financing Facility (LEEFF).”

Easier said than done.

Don't Worry Rudder If worst comes to worst the QC Govt will kick In for Transat !AT are not going anywhere )

If there were a stock offering (let’s say fully subscribed by QC govt or an agency thereof) it would dilute the existing shareholder value.

Hence, today’s sell off.
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