No pilot recalls until Spring 2023???

[Tdicommuter]

Let's see if someone can explain these numbers to me.

Pre-covid we needed approx 5000 pilots. We were approx 1000 short at the time. 600 got laid off.

So from pre-covid to current day in effect we are down 1600. 5000-1600=3400. As a percentage 1600÷5000= .32 aka 32 percent of the pilots were laid off.

If our fleet plan is 200 down from 250 that is a 20 percent reduction in aircraft. Even if you discount all the future retirements there is approx a 12 percent discrepancy. Guess what 12 percent of 5000 is.... 600.

If the real short term plan was further reduction then the smart move would be a reduction of old expensive pilots and bring in the flat pay guys to pick up the slack. Since we have not seen anything close to an actual attempt at an ERIP that means the company clearly needs the guys around.

Anyone have a way of explaining this without using rhetoric, or theories?

[Lt. Daniel Kaffee]

The 800-900 positions were never hired...they weren't laid off...they never existed except on a bid. Your premise is entirely wrong.

AC had 4200 pilots on property in Spring 2020. 600 have been furloughed.

That's 14%.

[Sharklasers]

If the real short term plan was further reduction then the smart move would be a reduction of old expensive pilots and bring in the flat pay guys to pick up the slack. Since we have not seen anything close to an actual attempt at an ERIP that means the company clearly needs the guys around.

ERIP’s make a lot less sense when you have a 12 year pay scale with R-L YoS compared to Jazzs 20 year scale because everytime you package off a highly paid guy an equally highly paid guy takes his place. I am sure the company would love to “fix” that.

[ToolShed]

The 800-900 positions were never hired...they weren't laid off...they never existed except on a bid. Your premise is entirely wrong.

AC had 4200 pilots on property in Spring 2020. 600 have been furloughed.

That's 14%.

AC Pilots were flying OT and VO to make up for the unstaffed positions.

So YES, they were technically hired. Just without benefits and extra training costs.

[TheStig]

The 800-900 positions were never hired...they weren't laid off...they never existed except on a bid. Your premise is entirely wrong.

AC had 4200 pilots on property in Spring 2020. 600 have been furloughed.

That's 14%.

AC Pilots were flying OT and VO to make up for the unstaffed positions.

So YES, they were technically hired. Just without benefits and extra training costs.

That's incorrect, the vacancies were for the projected flying requirements 9-12 months in the future. That future obviously didn't happen and those vacancies weren't filled.

Crew planning uses the projected block hours provided from the Commercial (revenue) Department to assess pilot requirements. Their assessment includes the contractual aspects, projected sick day usage, vacation allotments, the CARS and historical data on the number of pilots on disability. The airline wasn't simply hoping for a bunch of pilots working OT to cover 800 vacant positions, the hiring is designed to follow the crew planning guidance.

The training that is taking place now is for where the airline sees itself positioned next summer (2022) based on the plan and bid last May, with a tweak added to account for freighter flying.

When the furloughed pilots are recalled it will be well after they're awarded positions on a bid, unfortunately they aren't paid until they start training.

[walkabout]

American said in a filing earlier this month that it expects its second-quarter capacity to be down 20% to 25% from 2019, while United Airlines said it expects its capacity to be down about 46% and Delta forecast a 32% decline versus 2019. Meanwhile, Southwest Airlines forecast its July capacity to be off just 3% from 2019, down from a 7% decline this month.

A few yank co's back close to 2019 levels and some not so close but American is getting caught off guard on the speed of recovery and has canceled 123 flights on Saturday and 180 flights on Sunday due to staffing and other issues. WTF American can't even take advantage of a recovery underway lol, this will probably continue to happen throughout the summer I gather.

Source:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/21/america ... ssues.html

[EPR]

Yazz is recalling because domestic travel is in recovery, just as it has been for the last few months in the States... (and you all (should) know that we here in Chinada..follow the States, but always one to two years later!)

[co-joe]

Jazz is being forced to recall twice as many pilots as they actually need.

Because they don't have the ability to train their pilots on the ERJ, they need to recall SkyRegional pilots who are less senior than those at the top of the recall list. For every pilot they recall out of order, they must recall an additional pilot from the top of the recall list.

What's involved in being able to do initials on the ERJ that they can't do, but they can do recurrents? The SKR people will need a good 3 sessions and a ride to catch up at this point. So are they using the Sky AOC somehow to get rolling? I guess Jazz has to add a whole new type to the OC which I'm told can take 18 months from the word go, or are there some shortcuts because it's Express?

[rudder]

Jazz is being forced to recall twice as many pilots as they actually need.

Because they don't have the ability to train their pilots on the ERJ, they need to recall SkyRegional pilots who are less senior than those at the top of the recall list. For every pilot they recall out of order, they must recall an additional pilot from the top of the recall list.

What's involved in being able to do initials on the ERJ that they can't do, but they can do recurrents? The SKR people will need a good 3 sessions and a ride to catch up at this point. So are they using the Sky AOC somehow to get rolling? I guess Jazz has to add a whole new type to the OC which I'm told can take 18 months from the word go, or are there some shortcuts because it's Express?

Jazz previously added a 757 to the AOC in just a matter of months. E175 was added to Jazz AOC is a matter of weeks.

All manuals are now Jazz manuals and are approved by TC.

It ain’t rocket science.

[co-joe]

Jazz is being forced to recall twice as many pilots as they actually need.

Because they don't have the ability to train their pilots on the ERJ, they need to recall SkyRegional pilots who are less senior than those at the top of the recall list. For every pilot they recall out of order, they must recall an additional pilot from the top of the recall list.

What's involved in being able to do initials on the ERJ that they can't do, but they can do recurrents? The SKR people will need a good 3 sessions and a ride to catch up at this point. So are they using the Sky AOC somehow to get rolling? I guess Jazz has to add a whole new type to the OC which I'm told can take 18 months from the word go, or are there some shortcuts because it's Express?

Jazz previously added a 757 to the AOC in just a matter of months. E175 was added to Jazz AOC is a matter of weeks.

All manuals are now Jazz manuals and are approved by TC.

It ain’t rocket science.

So why did notwhoyouthink he is say that Jazz lacks the ability to train ERJ pilots? Are we just talking the time it takes to run an initial and line indoc captains?

[47north]

What's involved in being able to do initials on the ERJ that they can't do, but they can do recurrents? The SKR people will need a good 3 sessions and a ride to catch up at this point. So are they using the Sky AOC somehow to get rolling? I guess Jazz has to add a whole new type to the OC which I'm told can take 18 months from the word go, or are there some shortcuts because it's Express?

Jazz previously added a 757 to the AOC in just a matter of months. E175 was added to Jazz AOC is a matter of weeks.

All manuals are now Jazz manuals and are approved by TC.

It ain’t rocket science.

So why did notwhoyouthink he is say that Jazz lacks the ability to train ERJ pilots? Are we just talking the time it takes to run an initial and line indoc captains?

It's not correct that Jazz doesn't have the ability to train E175 crews. For the tight timelines for the E175 start-up, a recurrent training program was set-up to transition former Sky pilots over. An initial course wasn't required initially, but I believe that has been approved, or will be shortly, and will be ready to go when the next equipment comes along. On that bid, there will in all likelihood be 'original' Jazz pilots that require a full course.

[twa22]

meanwhile in the US....

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 021-06-21/

Time to find out how to get a green card and move down south...

[montado]

Ontario’s stage 3 is just as restrictive as last summer 2020. They also don’t have a plan for after stage 3. Small businesses literally have zero footprint or timeline to plan when they can operate as normal and not limited capacity at places such as restaurants. But on the bright side stage 2 is happening two days early! Completely idiotic.

39520ECB-55E8-4163-8CE3-DE3A1B2A7E64.jpeg (79.54 KiB) Viewed 4368 times

[The Hammer]

American said in a filing earlier this month that it expects its second-quarter capacity to be down 20% to 25% from 2019, while United Airlines said it expects its capacity to be down about 46% and Delta forecast a 32% decline versus 2019. Meanwhile, Southwest Airlines forecast its July capacity to be off just 3% from 2019, down from a 7% decline this month.

A few yank co's back close to 2019 levels and some not so close but American is getting caught off guard on the speed of recovery and has canceled 123 flights on Saturday and 180 flights on Sunday due to staffing and other issues. WTF American can't even take advantage of a recovery underway lol, this will probably continue to happen throughout the summer I gather.

Source:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/21/america ... ssues.html

This reflects exactly what was stated before. It's a domestic recovery only so far. That's why Southwest is back to near normal ops and United is down 46%. Very different markets with very different recovery times. Domestic travel is recovering like a Vegas Knights home game. Only the coaches and the back up goalies are wearing a mask.

[Tdicommuter]

https://pilotcareercentre.com/Aviation- ... l-rebounds


United has HIRED 300 more pilots than they had before Covid.

[sanjet]

meanwhile in the US....

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 021-06-21/

Time to find out how to get a green card and move down south...

Meanwhile there was a doctor on CTV calling pre-emptively for another lockdown in parts of canada for the virus variants before fall season.

[RRJetPilot]

meanwhile in the US....

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 021-06-21/

Time to find out how to get a green card and move down south...

Meanwhile there was a doctor on CTV calling pre-emptively for another lockdown in parts of canada for the virus variants before fall season.

CTV is has gone downhill lately. Almost as bad as CBC.

[McKinley]

meanwhile in the US....

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 021-06-21/

Time to find out how to get a green card and move down south...

Meanwhile there was a doctor on CTV calling pre-emptively for another lockdown in parts of canada for the virus variants before fall season.

Here’s an idea for the healthcare plautocrats ( the ones who are erasing businesses, jobs and mental health) each time they open their mouths .. meanwhile virtue signaling to anyone opposes their health dictatorship … they can collectively pay incomes of those who have lost their careers and or businesses.. fair is fair right?

They should check their privilege before calling people who are legitimately concerned for their survival narcissists. Or, maybe it’s healthy narcissism?

Nobody is wanting to hold that perspective …

[Inverted2]

meanwhile in the US....

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 021-06-21/

Time to find out how to get a green card and move down south...

Meanwhile there was a doctor on CTV calling pre-emptively for another lockdown in parts of canada for the virus variants before fall season.

CTV is has gone downhill lately. Almost as bad as CBC.

It’s just as bad. All the major media outlets are these days.

[Babar350]

They don't give a shit having us being "traumatized" or "strongly affirming whatever you want to call it".

As long as it gives them another 4 years in the office, why should they care about 500k people while with another brainwashed lockdown they can get as much as 75% of the population voting for them?

It is all about politics.
Happy New Years! We'll see you in 2025.

[Tdicommuter]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/29/business ... index.html


Doesn't look like United has a concern about the short to medium term future

[rudder]

Heard a reasonably credible rumour that there will be an August Bid that will show increases in 777 CA and need for recalls in 2022.

Hope that is the case for those on layoff.

[alkaseltzer]

Heard a reasonably credible rumour that there will be an August Bid that will show increases in 777 CA and need for recalls in 2022.

Hope that is the case for those on layoff.

+1

Good part of the pilot body will have to be taken offline for recall rights.

[rudder]

Heard a reasonably credible rumour that there will be an August Bid that will show increases in 777 CA and need for recalls in 2022.

Hope that is the case for those on layoff.

+1

Good part of the pilot body will have to be taken offline for recall rights.

Are GDIIP pilots eligible to bid?

[TheStig]

Heard a reasonably credible rumour that there will be an August Bid that will show increases in 777 CA and need for recalls in 2022.

Hope that is the case for those on layoff.

+1

Good part of the pilot body will have to be taken offline for recall rights.

Are GDIIP pilots eligible to bid?

Pilots on disability are moved to inactive status and don't bid for positions like managers, some union reps and others.

When AC was forecasting a requirement for over 5000 pilots there were over 225 777 Captains positions being awarded, the last bid was less than 150. The fleet of 25 tails hasn't changed as far as any financial documents show. With rockbottom loads and block hours obviously the airline wasn't too keen on flying its most expensive aircraft or awarding positions which would trigger 'Pay Activation' dates for pilot restocking positions that they had just paid early retirement packages to vacate. FOPS has, by and large stood by it's crew plan from May 2020, hopefully the Commercial side of the airline has indicated a rebound.