First Max

[co-joe]

Jetsgo was a truly independent ULCC, but it was such an operational shit show it was doomed from day one.

...

I don't see their business model as having been in line with the successful ULCCs in the world at all. They had 2 aircraft types neither of which were on the cutting edge of efficiency for their time. They had 2 seat class fares which is not ULCC at all. Being a ULCC isn't just about cheap fares.

[Realitychex]

Anyone who’s been around the industry, and especially around startups world wide knows the perils of rapid expansion prior to achieving consistent profitability.

Jetsgo was the Canadian poster child for this strategy. When cash became tight, as it perpetually was at SG, they simply announced further expansion and used tomorrow’s advance booking dollars to pay today’s bills.

Come mid August, Flair will announce a slew of $39 fares from Canada to sun destinations that, even with ancillary revenue, don’t even cover the trans border fixed costs and fees charged by the US and Canadian governments. But that’s not the point. When they do it, it will be to generate an immediate surge of cash to pay today’s bills as they watch the post Labor Day bookings cliff develop.

Yet here we are in 2021 with another new entrant blazing away, expanding like a weed with no strategic vision other than to cover as much territory as possible with as few airframes as possible, charging fares that were unsustainable 25 years ago with $15 bbl oil and comp packages roughly 60% of today’s rates.

It’s basically a Ponzi scheme. It works until you run out of Grande Prairies with 189 seat jets, (recall WS operated 120 seats in the day...big difference), It’s all very predictable and rarely ends well.

Flair is nothing if not predictable.

As pointed out earlier, the game is to continuously announce expansion, using tomorrow’s revenues to pay today’s bills. Things will always look rosy when you have the expenses associated with X tails, but revenues flowing in on the basis of selling seats on 1.4X or more tails into new markets. It works on a cash flow basis as long as that ratio exists. But cash flow doesn’t translate to revenues exceeding expenses. Big difference, See Michel Leblanc and countless others for details.

Jetsgo did exactly the same thing in 2004 / 2005, trying to rely on those short bursts of “expansion excitement revenue” to underwrite massive over expansion without having developed a coherent, integrated and robust feed / flow network, not to mention the training, systems and infrastructure to ensure the operation was sustainable 7 days a week, 365 days a year. Flair is trying to accomplish in a year what it’s successful role models did operating in massively larger markets in 5-7 years.

It’s the universal mistake made by people who simply don’t understand the nuances of operating in the high tax Canadian marketplace with a market at least 1/12th the size of the US with far
more peculiar travel habits and patterns.

It amazes me that they think that following exactly the same predictable strategy as all the previous tombstone airlines in Canada and elsewhere will somehow result in a different outcome.

Enjoy the ride whilst it lasts.

There are no shortcuts in any aspect of this business. And that starts with a slick, easy to use on line booking engine. Trying to navigate Flairs website on an iPad is a joke.

[igorcanuck]

Anyone who’s been around the industry, and especially around startups world wide knows the perils of rapid expansion prior to achieving consistent profitability.

Jetsgo was the Canadian poster child for this strategy. When cash became tight, as it perpetually was at SG, they simply announced further expansion and used tomorrow’s advance booking dollars to pay today’s bills.

Come mid August, Flair will announce a slew of $39 fares from Canada to sun destinations that, even with ancillary revenue, don’t even cover the trans border fixed costs and fees charged by the US and Canadian governments. But that’s not the point. When they do it, it will be to generate an immediate surge of cash to pay today’s bills as they watch the post Labor Day bookings cliff develop.

Yet here we are in 2021 with another new entrant blazing away, expanding like a weed with no strategic vision other than to cover as much territory as possible with as few airframes as possible, charging fares that were unsustainable 25 years ago with $15 bbl oil and comp packages roughly 60% of today’s rates.

It’s basically a Ponzi scheme. It works until you run out of Grande Prairies with 189 seat jets, (recall WS operated 120 seats in the day...big difference), It’s all very predictable and rarely ends well.

Flair is nothing if not predictable.

As pointed out earlier, the game is to continuously announce expansion, using tomorrow’s revenues to pay today’s bills. Things will always look rosy when you have the expenses associated with X tails, but revenues flowing in on the basis of selling seats on 1.4X or more tails into new markets. It works on a cash flow basis as long as that ratio exists. But cash flow doesn’t translate to revenues exceeding expenses. Big difference, See Michel Leblanc and countless others for details.

Jetsgo did exactly the same thing in 2004 / 2005, trying to rely on those short bursts of “expansion excitement revenue” to underwrite massive over expansion without having developed a coherent, integrated and robust feed / flow network, not to mention the training, systems and infrastructure to ensure the operation was sustainable 7 days a week, 365 days a year. Flair is trying to accomplish in a year what it’s successful role models did operating in massively larger markets in 5-7 years.

It’s the universal mistake made by people who simply don’t understand the nuances of operating in the high tax Canadian marketplace with a market at least 1/12th the size of the US with far
more peculiar travel habits and patterns.

It amazes me that they think that following exactly the same predictable strategy as all the previous tombstone airlines in Canada and elsewhere will somehow result in a different outcome.

Enjoy the ride whilst it lasts.

There are no shortcuts in any aspect of this business. And that starts with a slick, easy to use on line booking engine. Trying to navigate Flairs website on an iPad is a joke.

Yeah… Flair’s CEO doesn’t know anything about this type of business… he’s new. Lol

[Soyer]

Anyone who’s been around the industry, and especially around startups world wide knows the perils of rapid expansion prior to achieving consistent profitability.

Jetsgo was the Canadian poster child for this strategy. When cash became tight, as it perpetually was at SG, they simply announced further expansion and used tomorrow’s advance booking dollars to pay today’s bills.

Come mid August, Flair will announce a slew of $39 fares from Canada to sun destinations that, even with ancillary revenue, don’t even cover the trans border fixed costs and fees charged by the US and Canadian governments. But that’s not the point. When they do it, it will be to generate an immediate surge of cash to pay today’s bills as they watch the post Labor Day bookings cliff develop.

Yet here we are in 2021 with another new entrant blazing away, expanding like a weed with no strategic vision other than to cover as much territory as possible with as few airframes as possible, charging fares that were unsustainable 25 years ago with $15 bbl oil and comp packages roughly 60% of today’s rates.

It’s basically a Ponzi scheme. It works until you run out of Grande Prairies with 189 seat jets, (recall WS operated 120 seats in the day...big difference), It’s all very predictable and rarely ends well.

Flair is nothing if not predictable.

As pointed out earlier, the game is to continuously announce expansion, using tomorrow’s revenues to pay today’s bills. Things will always look rosy when you have the expenses associated with X tails, but revenues flowing in on the basis of selling seats on 1.4X or more tails into new markets. It works on a cash flow basis as long as that ratio exists. But cash flow doesn’t translate to revenues exceeding expenses. Big difference, See Michel Leblanc and countless others for details.

Jetsgo did exactly the same thing in 2004 / 2005, trying to rely on those short bursts of “expansion excitement revenue” to underwrite massive over expansion without having developed a coherent, integrated and robust feed / flow network, not to mention the training, systems and infrastructure to ensure the operation was sustainable 7 days a week, 365 days a year. Flair is trying to accomplish in a year what it’s successful role models did operating in massively larger markets in 5-7 years.

It’s the universal mistake made by people who simply don’t understand the nuances of operating in the high tax Canadian marketplace with a market at least 1/12th the size of the US with far
more peculiar travel habits and patterns.

It amazes me that they think that following exactly the same predictable strategy as all the previous tombstone airlines in Canada and elsewhere will somehow result in a different outcome.

Enjoy the ride whilst it lasts.

There are no shortcuts in any aspect of this business. And that starts with a slick, easy to use on line booking engine. Trying to navigate Flairs website on an iPad is a joke.

Bullcrap. The aircraft are arriving and you need to place them on routes. The announcements are for the upcoming season (winter) which is no different than any other airline. You announce, open your schedule for purchase and off you go. In most cases, for most routes the early bookings are thin but you need them in the system. In Flair's case there are new routes as the Cdn summer routes decline and are shifted southerly.

[acpaleaks]

Anyone who’s been around the industry, and especially around startups world wide knows the perils of rapid expansion prior to achieving consistent profitability.

Jetsgo was the Canadian poster child for this strategy. When cash became tight, as it perpetually was at SG, they simply announced further expansion and used tomorrow’s advance booking dollars to pay today’s bills.

Come mid August, Flair will announce a slew of $39 fares from Canada to sun destinations that, even with ancillary revenue, don’t even cover the trans border fixed costs and fees charged by the US and Canadian governments. But that’s not the point. When they do it, it will be to generate an immediate surge of cash to pay today’s bills as they watch the post Labor Day bookings cliff develop.

Yet here we are in 2021 with another new entrant blazing away, expanding like a weed with no strategic vision other than to cover as much territory as possible with as few airframes as possible, charging fares that were unsustainable 25 years ago with $15 bbl oil and comp packages roughly 60% of today’s rates.

It’s basically a Ponzi scheme. It works until you run out of Grande Prairies with 189 seat jets, (recall WS operated 120 seats in the day...big difference), It’s all very predictable and rarely ends well.

Flair is nothing if not predictable.

As pointed out earlier, the game is to continuously announce expansion, using tomorrow’s revenues to pay today’s bills. Things will always look rosy when you have the expenses associated with X tails, but revenues flowing in on the basis of selling seats on 1.4X or more tails into new markets. It works on a cash flow basis as long as that ratio exists. But cash flow doesn’t translate to revenues exceeding expenses. Big difference, See Michel Leblanc and countless others for details.

Jetsgo did exactly the same thing in 2004 / 2005, trying to rely on those short bursts of “expansion excitement revenue” to underwrite massive over expansion without having developed a coherent, integrated and robust feed / flow network, not to mention the training, systems and infrastructure to ensure the operation was sustainable 7 days a week, 365 days a year. Flair is trying to accomplish in a year what it’s successful role models did operating in massively larger markets in 5-7 years.

It’s the universal mistake made by people who simply don’t understand the nuances of operating in the high tax Canadian marketplace with a market at least 1/12th the size of the US with far
more peculiar travel habits and patterns.

It amazes me that they think that following exactly the same predictable strategy as all the previous tombstone airlines in Canada and elsewhere will somehow result in a different outcome.

Enjoy the ride whilst it lasts.

There are no shortcuts in any aspect of this business. And that starts with a slick, easy to use on line booking engine. Trying to navigate Flairs website on an iPad is a joke.

Bullcrap. The aircraft are arriving and you need to place them on routes. The announcements are for the upcoming season (winter) which is no different than any other airline. You announce, open your schedule for purchase and off you go. In most cases, for most routes the early bookings are thin but you need them in the system. In Flair's case there are new routes as the Cdn summer routes decline and are shifted southerly.

Seems like it would make more sense to up the domestic frequency in Canada, no? More flights on the same routes... would help with IROPS as well when planes go mechanical. Not waiting 24 hours for the next flight etc... = pissed off passengers. The benefit AC and WJ have, is the route structure to be able to filter people to their destination when things go awry. Flair is going to have trouble. Sunwing was already notorious for this when flights to vacation destinations had issues. Sometimes people waiting up to 3 days to get to their vacation, cutting into their time at the beach.

Expanding like they are into what, 6 major American cities seems a bit ill conceived. Unless they can service all of them daily, it's going to probably cause more problems than they realize once they have to deal with delays, or crews timing out.

Flair has the perfect opportunity to be the Westjet of 2021+. Do what WJ used to do... fly to a number of Canadian cities regularly at low rates.

[Realitychex]

“Yeah… Flair’s CEO doesn’t know anything about this type of business… he’s new”

Well, Air New Zealand isn’t exactly a low cost operation, and Freedom Air is a distant memory, even at ANZ.

Wizz Air had, (and has), a massive sandbox to play in and enjoyed feasting off some pretty inept competition in its core geography. O&D is a no brainer in that sort of environment.

3 years at Wizz, 14 years after the heavy lifting was done is not as impressive a feat as if he’d been the guy who profitably took the company from startup to the first 20 tails.

Canada has 37m people, 6 time zones, and a lot of empty space. It’s not difficult to fill airplanes at compensatory rates without a network for about 140 days a year in Canada, but the other 225 days?

Good luck.

Therein lies the difference in Canada and the reason why there’s a very long list of failed airlines who tried to replicate a strategy that works when you can tap into a population of 350 million people with a massive collective propensity to travel for both business and leisure vs one that is 1/10th that size in a fundamentally destimulative high tax, high cost environment.

Without a core network with enough frequency to to attract higher yielding fares as well as generating feed, flow and through traffic to sustain the business during the 225 dog days of the year, rolled out in a comprehensive and systematic fashion, something Flair has vehemently avoided doing in favor of willy nilly expansion everywhere, the independent ULCC Flair model, in my opinion, is doomed.

[fish4life]

I don’t want to say realitychex was right but……

https://canadianaviator.com/flair-share ... dium=email

[notwhoyouthinkIam]

I don’t want to say realitychex was right but……

https://canadianaviator.com/flair-share ... dium=email

Cancelling the expansion would cripple the airline. I doubt a court will issue an injunction against Flair.

[fish4life]

I don’t want to say realitychex was right but……

https://canadianaviator.com/flair-share ... dium=email

Cancelling the expansion would cripple the airline. I doubt a court will issue an injunction against Flair.

Read the article linked in that one, they owe 140 mill at 18% interest

[FurHat]

The suit acknowledges they can't stop the expansion. The resolution requested is that the previous CEO be paid out for his shares.

[RRJetPilot]

Those loans are money mart rates.

[notwhoyouthinkIam]

Those loans are money mart rates.

LOL not quite. Apparently Money Mart charges 46.9% APR.

[fish4life]

Those loans are money mart rates.

LOL not quite. Apparently Money Mart charges 46.9% APR.

Still you can literally get credit cards with lower interest rates, I

[RRJetPilot]

Flair CEO was just on CKNW radio in Vancouver (Sunday morning) talking about how he will get foreign pilots with 20-25000 hours coming to work for him. I think he said from the US.

[Airbrake]

Flair CEO was just on CKNW radio in Vancouver (Sunday morning) talking about how he will get foreign pilots with 20-25000 hours coming to work for him. I think he said from the US.

He said that they are getting half their pilots from Canada and half from overseas. That most have 20-25 years experience and are mostly returning from overseas due to lack of work.
Didn’t mention US pilots or number of flying hours.

https://globalnews.ca/pages//audio-vault-cknw/
Discussion starts at around 8:17 on July 11

[GRK2]

Flair CEO was just on CKNW radio in Vancouver (Sunday morning) talking about how he will get foreign pilots with 20-25000 hours coming to work for him. I think he said from the US.

No, he didn't say foreign pilots. Listen carefully. Those pilots hired recently (plus more to come) are ALL CANADIANS. As another poster rightly says, they are coming home after work dried up overseas. Please get it right before you start a rumour with no basis in fact.

[Big Pistons Forever]

There is a huge pool of out of work Canadian pilots from China and the Middle East to draw from. What I have heard is every every new hire FO has had over 10 K hours with significant command time. They are obviously hiring future expansion Captains not FO's.

[rudder]

Flair CEO was just on CKNW radio in Vancouver (Sunday morning) talking about how he will get foreign pilots with 20-25000 hours coming to work for him. I think he said from the US.

He said that they are getting half their pilots from Canada and half from overseas. That most have 20-25 years experience and are mostly returning from overseas due to lack of work.
Didn’t mention US pilots or number of flying hours.

https://globalnews.ca/pages//audio-vault-cknw/
Discussion starts at around 8:17 on July 11

Most returning CDN experienced overseas pilots are looking for DEC opportunities.

I believe that currently the only two large aircraft operators that are hiring DEC is Cargojet and Flair.

[Airbrake]

Overall the interview felt more like an advertisement then a true interview.

I don’t know the host, but he sure seemed to be sending softball questions to me.

[RRJetPilot]

I think realitychex or whatever his name is was right.
They are using future ticket sales to pay for current operations and the loan at 18% which is insane. 18% think about that.

They literally have to expand to sell more seats to pay the loan.

I cant imagine with the profit margins in this industry you can afford those kind of loans AND operate Profitably.

I will be very impressed if this company is still around in 1 year. Good luck to all. Sincerely. We have it tough enough as pilots in this country. To keep starting over because the company is doing shady shit is very sad.

[acpaleaks]

There is a huge pool of out of work Canadian pilots from China and the Middle East to draw from. What I have heard is every every new hire FO has had over 10 K hours with significant command time. They are obviously hiring future expansion Captains not FO's.

I know three FOs hired within the last year all without any significant command time and one with zero 705 time.

So I'm not sure where you're getting your information from.

[boeingboy]

Of course Realitychecx is right....I've been saying the same thing. ULCC's will not work here, and a rapid expansion from nothing to everything will only bring you down that much faster. Flair has been through multiple owners and operation types since it started - never really finding a footing, very little money do do anything with and now they have a questionable investor that seems to be looking out for their own interests.

They may have been able to cobble through if they limited (slowed) and altered their Canadian expansion.....but full speed ahead and this US expansion just completely does them in I think.

[GRK2]

There is a huge pool of out of work Canadian pilots from China and the Middle East to draw from. What I have heard is every every new hire FO has had over 10 K hours with significant command time. They are obviously hiring future expansion Captains not FO's.

I know three FOs hired within the last year all without any significant command time and one with zero 705 time.

So I'm not sure where you're getting your information from.

They were hired before Covid when there was a shortage. If they're the ones I'm thinking of, I heard they didn't make the grade and were let go during training.

[acpaleaks]

There is a huge pool of out of work Canadian pilots from China and the Middle East to draw from. What I have heard is every every new hire FO has had over 10 K hours with significant command time. They are obviously hiring future expansion Captains not FO's.

I know three FOs hired within the last year all without any significant command time and one with zero 705 time.

So I'm not sure where you're getting your information from.

They were hired before Covid when there was a shortage. If they're the ones I'm thinking of, I heard they didn't make the grade and were let go during training.

Doesn't sound like the same people. One I know just returned to the line after the "layoffs" and is requalified now. The other two I haven't talked to in ages but I am pretty sure they are all still employed.

It's not really that hard to be a 737 FO... let's be honest.

[GRK2]

I know three FOs hired within the last year all without any significant command time and one with zero 705 time.

So I'm not sure where you're getting your information from.

They were hired before Covid when there was a shortage. If they're the ones I'm thinking of, I heard they didn't make the grade and were let go during training.

Doesn't sound like the same people. One I know just returned to the line after the "layoffs" and is requalified now. The other two I haven't talked to in ages but I am pretty sure they are all still employed.

It's not really that hard to be a 737 FO... let's be honest.

Sooooo. actually not hired in the last year. The last FO's that were hired (my source) all did groundschool a year ago March then were furloughed. Three didn't finish training after being recalled this spring. All hiring since then has been DEC positions. Your claim that being a 737 FO isn't hard depends purely on your attitude. Put in the work? Yes...try to mail it in? Not a hope.