rudder wrote: ↑Tue Mar 15, 2022 10:28 am
That sums up exactly why the TRZ shares are trading at $4.60 today (market capitalization of C$175MM). Denial. Alternate reality. Hope. Recall this is a corporation with 2019 revenues of C$2.9B. AC shares were also worth more than zero the day it filed on April Fool’s Day 2003.
TRZ has already been forced to abandon a planned reorganization with AC. And to date, no other suitor has stepped forward with an acceptable plan to replace AC. Probably because nobody else can bring to the table what AC can bring.
So whether it is a Plan of Reorganization (outside of CCAA) or a Plan of Arrangement (inside of CCAA protection) - TRZ needs a plan.
I hope they find one. I hope it works out. I hope that everyone keeps their job. And I hope nobody suffers a reduction in WAWCON. But the landscape coming out of COVID looks quite a bit different than it did going in. And the TRZ balance sheet has since been tilted in the wrong direction.
Your assessments seem fairly accurate. Here are some additional thoughts for those that can entertain it.
By all accounts, Transat is the last remaining of the original charter airlines, Royal, Skyservice, Canada 3000, all of which have gone bankrupt. Transat too narrowly avoided bankruptcy in 2001 due to sudden collapse of Canada 3000 and the Quebec factor as said. It wasn’t that it was run or managed better than the others, in fact Canada 3000 and Skyservice were much better run.
Due to this long life and the factors you mentioned above, Transat has priced itself out of the market in which it operates and its survival will depend on its acceptance of that fact and working to correct its revenue stream creatively or modify their expectations or a combination. Merging with a legacy carrier to potentially access its higher revenue structure would have been one way. CCAA will likely provide another avenue, but so too will the willingness of its labour force, particularly skilled labour, to accept and acknowledge it in concrete ways.
One such concrete way was the approach of American Airlines’ labour unions to U.S Airways prior to their merger when they made clear their expectations and aspirations which in fact were aligned with U.S Airways’ and facilitated the merger. Some of the ways Transat pilots for instance can do that, is to have an open discussion amongst themselves about what they are willing to accept and then approach potential buyers’ union ahead of a deal to make that known. If the glaring alternative is bankruptcy, would they be willing to merge BOTL with position freeze, or 1 to x for YOS? There are many creative ways to get actively involved in their own destiny by being realistic. Whatever the case, Transat’s challenges are deeper to be solved, or even delayed, by a politician, a very arrogant and unpopular one at that!
rudder wrote: ↑Tue Mar 15, 2022 10:28 am
That sums up exactly why the TRZ shares are trading at $4.60 today (market capitalization of C$175MM). Denial. Alternate reality. Hope. Recall this is a corporation with 2019 revenues of C$2.9B. AC shares were also worth more than zero the day it filed on April Fool’s Day 2003.
TRZ has already been forced to abandon a planned reorganization with AC. And to date, no other suitor has stepped forward with an acceptable plan to replace AC. Probably because nobody else can bring to the table what AC can bring.
So whether it is a Plan of Reorganization (outside of CCAA) or a Plan of Arrangement (inside of CCAA protection) - TRZ needs a plan.
I hope they find one. I hope it works out. I hope that everyone keeps their job. And I hope nobody suffers a reduction in WAWCON. But the landscape coming out of COVID looks quite a bit different than it did going in. And the TRZ balance sheet has since been tilted in the wrong direction.
Your assessments seem fairly accurate. Here are some additional thoughts for those that can entertain it.
By all accounts, Transat is the last remaining of the original charter airlines, Royal, Skyservice, Canada 3000, all of which have gone bankrupt. Transat too narrowly avoided bankruptcy in 2001 due to sudden collapse of Canada 3000 and the Quebec factor as said. It wasn’t that it was run or managed better than the others, in fact Canada 3000 and Skyservice were much better run.
Due to this long life and the factors you mentioned above, Transat has priced itself out of the market in which it operates and its survival will depend on its acceptance of that fact and working to correct its revenue stream creatively or modify their expectations or a combination. Merging with a legacy carrier to potentially access its higher revenue structure would have been one way. CCAA will likely provide another avenue, but so too will the willingness of its labour force, particularly skilled labour, to accept and acknowledge it in concrete ways.
One such concrete way was the approach of American Airlines’ labour unions to U.S Airways prior to their merger when they made clear their expectations and aspirations which in fact were aligned with U.S Airways’ and facilitated the merger. Some of the ways Transat pilots for instance can do that, is to have an open discussion amongst themselves about what they are willing to accept and then approach potential buyers’ union ahead of a deal to make that known. If the glaring alternative is bankruptcy, would they be willing to merge BOTL with position freeze, or 1 to x for YOS? There are many creative ways to get actively involved in their own destiny by being realistic. Whatever the case, Transat’s challenges are deeper to be solved, or even delayed, by a politician, a very arrogant and unpopular one at that!
I will say that Canada 3000 was better, right up until they were made to take on Michel LeBlanc. That sewered them from the get go, 9/11 was the dager took it out. Skyservice, well just like AC with Sky Regional when the Thomas Cook contract was awarded out of the company they no longer existed. Basing all your apples on one client is generally not a good business practice.
TS's model of tour operator first has now caught up with it, which the new guard is actively changing however is it to little to late. No company can afford to have wide bodies parked routinely between trips at different airports. You have to fly them 12+ hours a day for them to make money and to often the old guard had them parked at how many benjamins a day. Hopefully Annick can change the model quick as she seems to be doing, but as a current TS pilot I have my doubts.
rudder wrote: ↑Tue Mar 15, 2022 10:28 am
That sums up exactly why the TRZ shares are trading at $4.60 today (market capitalization of C$175MM). Denial. Alternate reality. Hope. Recall this is a corporation with 2019 revenues of C$2.9B. AC shares were also worth more than zero the day it filed on April Fool’s Day 2003.
TRZ has already been forced to abandon a planned reorganization with AC. And to date, no other suitor has stepped forward with an acceptable plan to replace AC. Probably because nobody else can bring to the table what AC can bring.
So whether it is a Plan of Reorganization (outside of CCAA) or a Plan of Arrangement (inside of CCAA protection) - TRZ needs a plan.
I hope they find one. I hope it works out. I hope that everyone keeps their job. And I hope nobody suffers a reduction in WAWCON. But the landscape coming out of COVID looks quite a bit different than it did going in. And the TRZ balance sheet has since been tilted in the wrong direction.
Your assessments seem fairly accurate. Here are some additional thoughts for those that can entertain it.
By all accounts, Transat is the last remaining of the original charter airlines, Royal, Skyservice, Canada 3000, all of which have gone bankrupt. Transat too narrowly avoided bankruptcy in 2001 due to sudden collapse of Canada 3000 and the Quebec factor as said. It wasn’t that it was run or managed better than the others, in fact Canada 3000 and Skyservice were much better run.
Due to this long life and the factors you mentioned above, Transat has priced itself out of the market in which it operates and its survival will depend on its acceptance of that fact and working to correct its revenue stream creatively or modify their expectations or a combination. Merging with a legacy carrier to potentially access its higher revenue structure would have been one way. CCAA will likely provide another avenue, but so too will the willingness of its labour force, particularly skilled labour, to accept and acknowledge it in concrete ways.
One such concrete way was the approach of American Airlines’ labour unions to U.S Airways prior to their merger when they made clear their expectations and aspirations which in fact were aligned with U.S Airways’ and facilitated the merger. Some of the ways Transat pilots for instance can do that, is to have an open discussion amongst themselves about what they are willing to accept and then approach potential buyers’ union ahead of a deal to make that known. If the glaring alternative is bankruptcy, would they be willing to merge BOTL with position freeze, or 1 to x for YOS? There are many creative ways to get actively involved in their own destiny by being realistic. Whatever the case, Transat’s challenges are deeper to be solved, or even delayed, by a politician, a very arrogant and unpopular one at that!
I will say that Canada 3000 was better, right up until they were made to take on Michel LeBlanc. That sewered them from the get go, 9/11 was the dager took it out. Skyservice, well just like AC with Sky Regional when the Thomas Cook contract was awarded out of the company they no longer existed. Basing all your apples on one client is generally not a good business practice.
TS's model of tour operator first has now caught up with it, which the new guard is actively changing however is it to little to late. No company can afford to have wide bodies parked routinely between trips at different airports. You have to fly them 12+ hours a day for them to make money and to often the old guard had them parked at how many benjamins a day. Hopefully Annick can change the model quick as she seems to be doing, but as a current TS pilot I have my doubts.
If I remember correctly the 330’s that transat has leased are almost all on a sweetheart power by the hour deal so when they are sitting idle it actually doesn’t cost them anything
fish4life wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 8:10 am
If I remember correctly the 330’s that transat has leased are almost all on a sweetheart power by the hour deal so when they are sitting idle it actually doesn’t cost them anything
If Flair is successful in getting the foreign ownership regs effectively neutered Transat could be a terrific vehicle for a foreign PE or airline looking to get a ready made high efficiency fleet with full Canadian market penetration and established work force for next to nothing. They could pivot to a LCC model like Norwegian or just leverage the Canadian labour cost savings to carry US pax over the Atlantic like Delta does with their AeroMexico sub going south.
I don’t think Transats final chapter is written yet.
Transat is a great company/airline. Hope onex makes an offer them. They’d instantly have a domestic/international airline with the largest vacation company in Canada. Hooked in with TUI.
I’m not arrogant enough to tell the TS pilots they should be bottom of any list. I hated saying elite on the radio. We were far from it.
hithere wrote: ↑Sun Apr 24, 2022 1:38 pm
Pay increase? Do you mean you have an increase in your monthly flying and therefore more money or that you somehow got an hourly pay rate increase?
Hourly pay rate increase and everyone back at 80hrs credit. Top captain pay scale around 258K a year now.
Maybe by the end of the year .. but not in the short term. Unless a bunch of junior guys jump to AC .. time will tell.
Lots of junior pilots have already left and are flying at other jobs. They've kept their place at AT in case their new jobs don't work out well enough. The company won't know they've left until they get a recall and deny it.
I know a few who recently resigned to go DEC at Swoop. Many have been recently called by AC for an interview; once job offers will be sent in a few weeks or months Air Transat will have a hard time; and the management is well aware of this problem pending…
They only lost ~10 pilots since the beginning of the pandemic, including 1 or 2 that retired if I'm not mistaken.
There's around 60 pilots left to recall, should be within the next month or 2. Most of the pilots on layoff or LOA are flying at a temporary job and will come back to Transat (training bond, waiting for other recalls so they have better seniority, etc.)
The only threat to TS is AC hiring, the rest is not an issue.
hithere wrote: ↑Sun Apr 24, 2022 1:38 pm
Pay increase? Do you mean you have an increase in your monthly flying and therefore more money or that you somehow got an hourly pay rate increase?
Hourly pay rate increase and everyone back at 80hrs credit. Top captain pay scale around 258K a year now.
The union just negotiated a 3 year contract extension with pay increases of 3%, 3% and 2.5%. The deal needs to be ratified still, should voted on in May.
Latitude wrote: ↑Mon Apr 25, 2022 5:57 am
Top captain pay scale around 258K a year now.
Brutal
Holy christ. 258k is brutal. Get your head outta the sand. If that’s brutal you’ve clearly made some wrong life choices cause I know 100s who would line up for that in any industry.
Latitude wrote: ↑Mon Apr 25, 2022 5:57 am
Top captain pay scale around 258K a year now.
Brutal
Holy christ. 258k is brutal. Get your head outta the sand. If that’s brutal you’ve clearly made some wrong life choices cause I know 100s who would line up for that in any industry.
Holy christ. 258k is brutal. Get your head outta the sand. If that’s brutal you’ve clearly made some wrong life choices cause I know 100s who would line up for that in any industry.
Mr. "Offthecuff", who's head is in the sand?
I guess I do. Working an average of 10-12 days a month is certainly worth an additional 50K. Lets not forget, literally a month before the pandemic Transat boosted ALL Captain pay by an average of (if memory serves) 27%. First year Narrow Body Capt went from 103 up what it is now of $149. Not to bad for during a Pandemic. Wide Body also went way up, and lets not forget now that 321 pilots are NOT narrowbody pay therefore every single pilot on the TS property gets Widebody pay.
With this bump and the situation at TS, I don't think anyone expected to have a bump in pay at all.
Latitude wrote: ↑Mon Apr 25, 2022 5:57 am
Top captain pay scale around 258K a year now.
Brutal
Holy christ. 258k is brutal. Get your head outta the sand. If that’s brutal you’ve clearly made some wrong life choices cause I know 100s who would line up for that in any industry.
That's less than A YEAR ONE A220 CA AT DELTA MAKES. In a country where you can live without state tax and buy a very nice home in some of the most expensive cities for less than a condo in Vancouver or Toronto. RAISE YOUR EXPECTATIONS.
Yeesh. Who cares how many people would sell their soul for that kind of cheddar. Still remains, that we are significantly underpaid compared to our global and North American peers.
Holy christ. 258k is brutal. Get your head outta the sand. If that’s brutal you’ve clearly made some wrong life choices cause I know 100s who would line up for that in any industry.
That's less than A YEAR ONE A220 CA AT DELTA MAKES. In a country where you can live without state tax and buy a very nice home in some of the most expensive cities for less than a condo in Vancouver or Toronto. RAISE YOUR EXPECTATIONS.
Yeesh. Who cares how many people would sell their soul for that kind of cheddar. Still remains, that we are significantly underpaid compared to our global and North American peers.
Welcome to Canada. Let me know the last time any lawyer/arbitrator cared what a US company makes. Hell even Allegiant pays a year one Capt $158K US.
They lasted for 10-15 years?
