Demand for flight instructors

[lidi]

Hello aviators, with the so called shortage of pilots today is there a shortage of flight instructors at the training schools or are there a lot of them getting their class 4
And looking for work.

Thank you

[TalkingPie]

Just one data point, but asking at my local FTU about two weeks ago I was told that there was still a glut of laid off pilots which meant that there was little movement of instructors. The guy I spoke to was a fresh Class 4 who counted himself lucky to get a job at the school he got his rating from.

I suspect that things could change rather quickly, though.

[qwe221sd]

Do you really believe there's a pilot shortage? People have been talking for 30 years.

[Bede]

Do you really believe there's a pilot shortage? People have been talking for 30 years.

There's a shortage of experienced pilots willing to work for paltry wages. Everyone else? Not so much.

[qwe221sd]

Do you really believe there's a pilot shortage? People have been talking for 30 years.

There's a shortage of experienced pilots willing to work for paltry wages. Everyone else? Not so much.

If there are zero experienced pilots in the field , the companies will choose end of operation or lower requirement?
It's chicken and egg question.

[digits_]

Do you really believe there's a pilot shortage? People have been talking for 30 years.

There's a shortage of experienced pilots willing to work for paltry wages. Everyone else? Not so much.

If there are zero experienced pilots in the field , the companies will choose end of operation or lower requirement?
It's chicken and egg question.

Reguirements have been going down for almost a decade. They are hitting the 1500 hour ATPL requirement and some medevac contract requirements limits for captains.

[Conflicting Traffic]

Just one data point, but asking at my local FTU about two weeks ago I was told that there was still a glut of laid off pilots which meant that there was little movement of instructors. The guy I spoke to was a fresh Class 4 who counted himself lucky to get a job at the school he got his rating from.

I suspect that things could change rather quickly, though.

This. The recovery is ongoing, but not complete. Give it 6 months, maybe 12 if things go more slowly than I expect -- assuming, of course, that nothing else bad happens to slow down (or reverse) the recovery.

Do you really believe there's a pilot shortage? People have been talking for 30 years.

Also this. Don't confuse a healthy job market (which we almost had pre-COVID and will likely have in 6-12 months) with a shortage.

[goingmissed]

I remember my $14,000 first year of instructing and my $22,000 second year.

[Big Pistons Forever]

If history is any guide there will be a sudden and dramatic loss of instructors as the training backlog of laid off pilots is worked through and major new hiring occurs. Jazz for example looks like they are going to hire over 400 new pilots in the next year.

In 1988 I was the junior new hire class 4 at a school with 8 instructors. A year later I was the only one left. In 2019 there was a dramatic reduction in Class 4 instructors applying for the upgrade to a class 3 as most were moving up before working long enough to qualify for the upgrade.

I predict in by next spring there will be a severe shortage of instructors.

[rookiepilot]

If history is any guide there will be a sudden and dramatic loss of instructors as the training backlog of laid off pilots is worked through and major new hiring occurs. Jazz for example looks like they are going to hire over 400 new pilots in the next year.

In 1988 I was the junior new hire class 4 at a school with 8 instructors. A year later I was the only one left. In 2019 there was a dramatic reduction in Class 4 instructors applying for the upgrade to a class 3 as most were moving up before working long enough to qualify for the upgrade.

I predict in by next spring there will be a severe shortage of instructors.

I’ll take the other side of that bet. Want to put some $$$$ up?

[Conflicting Traffic]

If history is any guide there will be a sudden and dramatic loss of instructors as the training backlog of laid off pilots is worked through and major new hiring occurs. Jazz for example looks like they are going to hire over 400 new pilots in the next year.

In 1988 I was the junior new hire class 4 at a school with 8 instructors. A year later I was the only one left. In 2019 there was a dramatic reduction in Class 4 instructors applying for the upgrade to a class 3 as most were moving up before working long enough to qualify for the upgrade.

I predict in by next spring there will be a severe shortage of instructors.

I’ll take the other side of that bet. Want to put some $$$$ up?

I'm curious as to your reasoning. Assuming the post-COVID recovery continues, BPF is almost certainly right. Do you expect the recovery not to continue?

[digits_]

Flight training is expensive.
Airline tickets are also relatively expensive.

High inflation, stationary wages, high fuel prices will likely cause more expensive airline tickets and less disposable income to pay for them.

I doubt the airline growth will last much longer.

[Squaretail]

BPF is correct, those of you betting against him are operating on the assumption that instructors in Canada are training people for the Canadian aviation job market, which they aren’t. Nor has this been the primary objective of The Canadian flight training industry for a while. Covid has created a substantial back log of training requirements, and schools are already winding up the puppy mills.

[digits_]

BPF is correct, those of you betting against him are operating on the assumption that instructors in Canada are training people for the Canadian aviation job market, which they aren’t. Nor has this been the primary objective of The Canadian flight training industry for a while. Covid has created a substantial back log of training requirements, and schools are already winding up the puppy mills.

Fair enough. But that's only part of it. If the Canadian airline growth stops, the instructors will have nowhere to go, and thus there won't be a shortage.

[Squaretail]

BPF is correct, those of you betting against him are operating on the assumption that instructors in Canada are training people for the Canadian aviation job market, which they aren’t. Nor has this been the primary objective of The Canadian flight training industry for a while. Covid has created a substantial back log of training requirements, and schools are already winding up the puppy mills.

Fair enough. But that's only part of it. If the Canadian airline growth stops, the instructors will have nowhere to go, and thus there won't be a shortage.

You are again thinking in a limited fashion. First data point is that most students in Canada now, aren’t destined for a Canadian airline seat. They are hoping to get cheap training here, get that initial experience here, then get a seat abroad. Since they will have probably a dual citizenship of some sort, there is a ramping demand for warm bodies in seats. In spite of a perceived high cost of living here, Canada is still, and will remain the cheapest pilot training place on the planet. Side note, there are big dollars to be made in recruiting foreign students, and I have spoke to brokers (for lack of a better term) who’s cut per recruit is anywhere between 10 to 40k. Per student.

The second data point is that there are increasingly jobs for both those students and instructors to go to. Just not airline ones, because in spite of the limited imagination of most of this forum, there is more to aviation than just airlines. A current driving force on the increased price of small airplanes is not only schools trying to grab up every last legacy Cessna to throw into the training meatgrinder, but there is a rising demand for such platforms for data acquisition. If you got an old 172 you want to sell, now is the time. The rest of the survey ready, and maybe more importantly, low-time-Pilot-friendly aircraft are in demand, do not stay on the market for long. 182s and 206s with holes are in the ads maybe for a month tops. These jobs are big appeals for fresh pilots, instructor qualified or otherwise, and my prediction is you will start to see more 1000 hour newbies, than 250 hour newbies. The bottleneck will be these guys looking to move into a right seat somewhere, and my experience with pilots says that once guys figure they’re in the market for that next job, they won’t go back down the ladder. My last resume net was indicative of that, guys doing non flying jobs for more money, rather than going back to instructing or another year of pilot slaving gathering data.

Lastly, every school I know is increasing their capacity, and already they have a revolving door of instructors. Lots of planes being bought, and even schools opening in places that have almost no local market, but they have free reign of an airstrip, and cheap local accommodations for foreign students. There’s a flight school in Claresholme for Pete’s sake.

So just because there’s not a seat at teal or red to shoot for, doesn’t mean there isn’t a perception that a pilot career is a good choice. If anything the market is better than ever, and only going to get better if you are a fresh license holder looking for that first job to get hours. And when you get your thousand hours and get disillusioned with the whole thing, there will be someone who wants to take your place and roll their own dice on making it to a seat in the big iron.

[rookiepilot]

If history is any guide there will be a sudden and dramatic loss of instructors as the training backlog of laid off pilots is worked through and major new hiring occurs. Jazz for example looks like they are going to hire over 400 new pilots in the next year.

In 1988 I was the junior new hire class 4 at a school with 8 instructors. A year later I was the only one left. In 2019 there was a dramatic reduction in Class 4 instructors applying for the upgrade to a class 3 as most were moving up before working long enough to qualify for the upgrade.

I predict in by next spring there will be a severe shortage of instructors.

I’ll take the other side of that bet. Want to put some $$$$ up?

I'm curious as to your reasoning. Assuming the post-COVID recovery continues, BPF is almost certainly right. Do you expect the recovery not to continue?

You really wouldn't like the answer to that question.

[Conflicting Traffic]

I’ll take the other side of that bet. Want to put some $$$$ up?

I'm curious as to your reasoning. Assuming the post-COVID recovery continues, BPF is almost certainly right. Do you expect the recovery not to continue?

You really wouldn't like the answer to that question.

I really would, actually. More/better information is always good. This is especially true in bad times when advance knowledge of a problem can help mitigate the damage.

[digits_]

BPF is correct, those of you betting against him are operating on the assumption that instructors in Canada are training people for the Canadian aviation job market, which they aren’t. Nor has this been the primary objective of The Canadian flight training industry for a while. Covid has created a substantial back log of training requirements, and schools are already winding up the puppy mills.

Fair enough. But that's only part of it. If the Canadian airline growth stops, the instructors will have nowhere to go, and thus there won't be a shortage.

You are again thinking in a limited fashion. First data point is that most students in Canada now, aren’t destined for a Canadian airline seat. They are hoping to get cheap training here, get that initial experience here, then get a seat abroad. Since they will have probably a dual citizenship of some sort, there is a ramping demand for warm bodies in seats. In spite of a perceived high cost of living here, Canada is still, and will remain the cheapest pilot training place on the planet. Side note, there are big dollars to be made in recruiting foreign students, and I have spoke to brokers (for lack of a better term) who’s cut per recruit is anywhere between 10 to 40k. Per student.

The second data point is that there are increasingly jobs for both those students and instructors to go to. Just not airline ones, because in spite of the limited imagination of most of this forum, there is more to aviation than just airlines. A current driving force on the increased price of small airplanes is not only schools trying to grab up every last legacy Cessna to throw into the training meatgrinder, but there is a rising demand for such platforms for data acquisition. If you got an old 172 you want to sell, now is the time. The rest of the survey ready, and maybe more importantly, low-time-Pilot-friendly aircraft are in demand, do not stay on the market for long. 182s and 206s with holes are in the ads maybe for a month tops. These jobs are big appeals for fresh pilots, instructor qualified or otherwise, and my prediction is you will start to see more 1000 hour newbies, than 250 hour newbies. The bottleneck will be these guys looking to move into a right seat somewhere, and my experience with pilots says that once guys figure they’re in the market for that next job, they won’t go back down the ladder. My last resume net was indicative of that, guys doing non flying jobs for more money, rather than going back to instructing or another year of pilot slaving gathering data.

Lastly, every school I know is increasing their capacity, and already they have a revolving door of instructors. Lots of planes being bought, and even schools opening in places that have almost no local market, but they have free reign of an airstrip, and cheap local accommodations for foreign students. There’s a flight school in Claresholme for Pete’s sake.

So just because there’s not a seat at teal or red to shoot for, doesn’t mean there isn’t a perception that a pilot career is a good choice. If anything the market is better than ever, and only going to get better if you are a fresh license holder looking for that first job to get hours. And when you get your thousand hours and get disillusioned with the whole thing, there will be someone who wants to take your place and roll their own dice on making it to a seat in the big iron.

I accept your premise, I reject your conclusion.

Yes, the demand for training is there. Yes it's driven by international students. Yes, FTUs might be increasing their capacity.
Yes, there is a perception that a pilot career is a good choice.
Sure, pilots might not move back towards an instructor job.

However, the majority of employees in Canadian FTUs are still Canadians (or immigrants planning on staying in Canada). When they move on to other jobs, FI spots open up. If things slow down a bit, I anticipate there will be more of a FTU/703 - 704 - 705 progression. Meaning 703 spots only open up when 704 spots open up, when 705 spots open up. You -and a lot of pilots- might be happy in a 703 or 704 spot, most of them still end up in a 705 operation.

If the airline flying slows down -which I think it will when people run out of disposable income-, no 703 or 704 pilot will move on, and the instructors will have nowhere to go.

From our premises we can conclude that a lot of people are training to be a pilot, and some of them will want to be an instructor. So an increase in instructor supply with a forecasted reduced need of instructors once the 705 ops stop hiring, will result in a surplus of instructors.


I hope I'm wrong, really. But I would predict that by 2024 we're back to a 'nobody is hiring' situation due to a lack of demand for flying.

[rookiepilot]

I'm curious as to your reasoning. Assuming the post-COVID recovery continues, BPF is almost certainly right. Do you expect the recovery not to continue?

You really wouldn't like the answer to that question.

I really would, actually. More/better information is always good. This is especially true in bad times when advance knowledge of a problem can help mitigate the damage.

Recession risks are rising. Fast.

[Squaretail]

You’re not reading what I’m saying. There is an increase in need for 702 pilots, which is going to change perceptions about how reasonable it may seem to get started in a flying career. This means that a lot of folks who might otherwise think that getting an instructor rating is the ticket up, now have another option. So do instructors for that matter, who are looking to have a resume that is perceived as being more desirable. In some cases it won’t even be 702 since depending on the method of data acquisition, it may not be necessary. This is going to be an unfortunate trend in the market for new pilots since I feel it’s going to drive down wages, or rather has already, if one has run into some of the 172 swarms floating around the country. The point being that while the demand for upper seats may diminish, I don’t think the demand for cheap Canadian training will in the near future, and the increasing availability of low time openings is going to increase which will fuel the appeal of training here.

In short, don’t underestimate the sales pitch of a quick thousand hours.

However, the majority of employees in Canadian FTUs are still Canadians (or immigrants planning on staying in Canada).

I don’t think you are correct in this assumption. Especially the latter part. Whenever I talk to a new applicant who is eyeing an airline career, they never talk about teal or red. Most schools I see are almost entirely staffed by immigrants of some sort of stage in their citizenship process, and none of them are married to Canada. A job back home is most of the time the aspiration. Or some place they feel is prestigious or pays well. Most covet a job with Emirates or Cathay.

[digits_]

You’re not reading what I’m saying. There is an increase in need for 702 pilots, which is going to change perceptions about how reasonable it may seem to get started in a flying career. This means that a lot of folks who might otherwise think that getting an instructor rating is the ticket up, now have another option. So do instructors for that matter, who are looking to have a resume that is perceived as being more desirable. In some cases it won’t even be 702 since depending on the method of data acquisition, it may not be necessary. This is going to be an unfortunate trend in the market for new pilots since I feel it’s going to drive down wages, or rather has already, if one has run into some of the 172 swarms floating around the country. The point being that while the demand for upper seats may diminish, I don’t think the demand for cheap Canadian training will in the near future, and the increasing availability of low time openings is going to increase which will fuel the appeal of training here.

What makes you think the 702 market is growing so much? I don't think the lack of available aircraft for sale is a good indicator. Planes are just getting old and reaching the end of their life, be it due to crashes, lack of spare parts or just too old to fix.

Even if the 702 were growing, doubling a 702 market would probably not even compensate for 10% reduction in airline flying.

In short, don’t underestimate the sales pitch of a quick thousand hours.

Who is making this sales pitch, to whom? Not sure what you're getting at.

[Squaretail]

The sales pitch to student pilots. The point I feel you are missing is selling flight training does’t have to be connected to an actual demand for airline pilots. Never has. There only has to be a perceived demand for pilots, which the increase in 702 operation fuels. Not sure how your career started, but I know younger me would have jumped on all the flying opportunities that exist for starting pilots (and present me would probably be aghast at how little younger me would be being paid). You need to step into the shoes of a neophyte looking to invest in this career, opposed to the current jaded pilot you might be.

As per my outlook on 702, I’m trying to price out planes as we speak. I get offers to buy our airplanes. Seeing more ads with guys wanting airplanes. Not just here. Travelling the country I see more and more companies doing some sort of 702 work, which used to be kind of insular. Not that long ago I knew of every competitor we had and their planes. Not anymore. I’m even too busy, there is more work being tendered, all the time. My busiest years were during Covid, and this year is getting more so. The technology of the sensors is increasing in leaps and bounds, and what used to need a larger platform, now can be accomplished with smaller, cheaper and perhaps most importantly easier to crew platforms. Drones may eventually take over a lot of this field (and there are niches where they might be the preferred platform) but for the near future little airplanes with cheap pilots are extremely cost effective.

For example, meter reading is increasingly done by aircraft. A 172 can do the work in one day that a fleet of cars can do in a week. Now think of how many 172s are going to be needed to get coverage needed for every township and county in Canada. And that’s only one aspect of the increase in demand. I get that as an airline guy you may not be on the ground to see this, but from what I see, there are going to be a lot more little airplanes buzzing around this country.

[digits_]

The sales pitch to student pilots. The point I feel you are missing is selling flight training does’t have to be connected to an actual demand for airline pilots. Never has. There only has to be a perceived demand for pilots, which the increase in 702 operation fuels. Not sure how your career started, but I know younger me would have jumped on all the flying opportunities that exist for starting pilots (and present me would probably be aghast at how little younger me would be being paid). You need to step into the shoes of a neophyte looking to invest in this career, opposed to the current jaded pilot you might be.

I already agreed with you that the training capacity for FTUs will likely increase. I'll quote myself:

Yes, the demand for training is there. Yes it's driven by international students. Yes, FTUs might be increasing their capacity.
Yes, there is a perception that a pilot career is a good choice.

Even if the demand goes up by 10%, if the airlines stop hiring, instructors will not be able to move on. Which means there will be no shortage of instructors. FTUs are making more instructors than they will need to compensate for the training demand.

Even if this is offset by a growing 702 market segment, I don't think it will be enough to compensate for lost pilot jobs if airline growth stops.

[Squaretail]

That reasoning is only predicated on Canadian airline growth though. I think the story is different in other parts of the world, where the demand is increasing, and in spite of downturns in global demands for air travel in short term, are banking on long term steady growth in demand. The growth might slow, but it will still be growth.

The increase in 702 is just more of an incentive for an even larger share of the training demand to come to Canada. Not only will it be cheap to train pilots, but will be able to produce cheap semi trained pilots. There will always be a turn over of instructors, regardless of whether there is a path up for them. Now there will be an increasing reason to leave instruction. If they really needed it. There aren’t many career instructors, or at least people willing to stick it out much over the thousand hour mark. Like I said, seeing lots of people leaving instructing, probably because of the perennially bad wages in the bad economy, but that doesn’t mean no one will want to fill their shoes.

[photofly]

I’m fascinated by the supposed increase in 702 operations.

Just meter reading is enough to make a dent in the pilot employment market?