Negotiations

[PostmasterGeneral]

Perhaps once they have a bid laid out on paper, they will realize how screwed they are and pay us appropriately.

We are still short over 100 captains (probably closer to 200) with that growing each day. We also lost a lot to other companies in January, which wouldn't yet be reflected on that list either.

I think Jazz is counting on parking a few airplanes as the flying gets consolidated at mainline.

[cdnavater]

The way I still see it, two ways to stop the bleeding.
Significant raise for all Jazz pilots which would not have been contemplated when Jazz signed the new CPA, so the money has to come from profit(is there any?)
The other is a purchase by AC but the key here is, a guaranteed path to the mothership has to be defined in that.
What that looks like is anyone’s guess, at this point the cheapest and easiest for AC is a merger, bring it all in house and let the pilots fight over the list.
Cheers

[truedude]

With China opening, mainline will be busy wouthout having to try an pick up the slack. Shrinking and cutting routes isn't a solid long term business plan. All it does is allow the competition to step in.

So many routes being cut or disappearing, all which used to be full.

Merging all the flying into one pot might solve some issues long term, but it took a long time before AC and CDN crews were blended, so buying Jazz with the intention of merging wouldn't solve the issue for at least a year, and leave both sides hating each other.

[cdnavater]

Perhaps once they have a bid laid out on paper, they will realize how screwed they are and pay us appropriately.

We are still short over 100 captains (probably closer to 200) with that growing each day. We also lost a lot to other companies in January, which wouldn't yet be reflected on that list either.

I think Jazz is counting on parking a few airplanes as the flying gets consolidated at mainline.

What would make you think that?
Parked airplanes are a liability on the balance sheet, I would think parked airplanes cost more than addressing the issues of pay.
More likely they are counting on an event to bail them out of the situation, either see my comments above or the likely recession.
Banks are sounding the alarm that if the BOC increases the lending rate again, the amount of mortgage defaults will be significant.
Saw a story yesterday that a couples biweekly mortgage payment last year was 987, now 1487. They are struggling to put food on the table and will have to choose. Selling will likely be difficult in the current environment, so default is an option.

[truedude]

Any recession will likely be shallow. And even a crash in housing will only impact those that bought in the last few years... essentially since 2020. Follow ronthemortgageguy on Twitter, he explains he market the best. Banks will work out almost any option to avoid having to place a client into default.

With China opening up, the demand for travel will sore. And if they are betting on a recession to fix the pilot problem, then they are really screwed. And stupid. It would also only be a short term fix, as there just aren't enough people learning to fly anymore.

[rudder]

The way I still see it, two ways to stop the bleeding.
Significant raise for all Jazz pilots which would not have been contemplated when Jazz signed the new CPA, so the money has to come from profit(is there any?)
The other is a purchase by AC but the key here is, a guaranteed path to the mothership has to be defined in that.
What that looks like is anyone’s guess, at this point the cheapest and easiest for AC is a merger, bring it all in house and let the pilots fight over the list.
Cheers

ACPA consent required for employer (AC) to take a position supporting a common employer declaration. ACPA has a de facto veto. For a TRZ acquisition consent would have been given. For Jazz, likely not.

[cdnavater]

The way I still see it, two ways to stop the bleeding.
Significant raise for all Jazz pilots which would not have been contemplated when Jazz signed the new CPA, so the money has to come from profit(is there any?)
The other is a purchase by AC but the key here is, a guaranteed path to the mothership has to be defined in that.
What that looks like is anyone’s guess, at this point the cheapest and easiest for AC is a merger, bring it all in house and let the pilots fight over the list.
Cheers

ACPA consent required for employer (AC) to take a position supporting a common employer declaration. ACPA has a de facto veto. For a TRZ acquisition consent would have been given. For Jazz, likely not.

I suppose I don’t have the same understanding as you regarding this possibility.
I’m not talking separate companies, I’m thinking a merger.
AC has had the CRJ and E175 on their OC in the past, obviously not the Q400 but it’s not without precedent.
If they were to buy any airline with the intent of merging it in, what does that have to do with common employer?
I understand if they keep a separate OC and run it as a separate entity but merging two together is a different situation, legally, is it not?
If I were the CEO, I’d be looking at this pretty seriously right now, the ensuing negotiations for the pay table might carve out the Q400 operation to a new CPA provider or not.
Obviously, no one knows anything at this point but I have watched Chorus stock steadily increasing over the few weeks.

[CaptDukeNukem]

The way I still see it, two ways to stop the bleeding.
Significant raise for all Jazz pilots which would not have been contemplated when Jazz signed the new CPA, so the money has to come from profit(is there any?)
The other is a purchase by AC but the key here is, a guaranteed path to the mothership has to be defined in that.
What that looks like is anyone’s guess, at this point the cheapest and easiest for AC is a merger, bring it all in house and let the pilots fight over the list.
Cheers

ACPA consent required for employer (AC) to take a position supporting a common employer declaration. ACPA has a de facto veto. For a TRZ acquisition consent would have been given. For Jazz, likely not.

I suppose I don’t have the same understanding as you regarding this possibility.
I’m not talking separate companies, I’m thinking a merger.
AC has had the CRJ and E175 on their OC in the past, obviously not the Q400 but it’s not without precedent.
If they were to buy any airline with the intent of merging it in, what does that have to do with common employer?
I understand if they keep a separate OC and run it as a separate entity but merging two together is a different situation, legally, is it not?
If I were the CEO, I’d be looking at this pretty seriously right now, the ensuing negotiations for the pay table might carve out the Q400 operation to a new CPA provider or not.
Obviously, no one knows anything at this point but I have watched Chorus stock steadily increasing over the few weeks.

You’re not wrong…

Mergers historically have always been tricky. Especially with different union groups. Frankly, I’m curious as to sunwing and WestJet integration…. Might be a precedence, especially in the eyes of an arbitrator. Thoughts?

[truedude]

So it appears they have chosen to keep shrinking instead of paying more. Wonder how small they are prepared to get? Because I am prepared to see it shrink to zero if they are this stubborn on paying pilots more.

[canadian_aviator_4]

So it appears they have chosen to keep shrinking instead of paying more. Wonder how small they are prepared to get? Because I am prepared to see it shrink to zero if they are this stubborn on paying pilots more.

I wonder what Chorus’ end game with Jazz is?

[PostmasterGeneral]

So it appears they have chosen to keep shrinking instead of paying more. Wonder how small they are prepared to get? Because I am prepared to see it shrink to zero if they are this stubborn on paying pilots more.

I wonder what Chorus’ end game with Jazz is?

Probably to sell it off and focus on their leasing, and maintenance/ overhaul services.

[truedude]

There is no master plan. Everything about this screams of inept management at AC, Jazz and Chours. They are so repulsed by the idea that pilots can actually demand what we are actually worth they would rather shrink than admit they need us.

It is pretty sad really, and shows you the absolute contempt management has for our profession.

[teacher]

Any pilot wage increases are not coming from Jazz but AC. AC wanted bargain basement CPA costs and forced it onto Jazz through a co-ordinated and methodical plan. Now they’re reaping what they sowed. Jazz’s CPA income and profit margins are not roomy enough for a large raise. AC is gonna have to pony up or come up with a new plan.

[PostmasterGeneral]

Any pilot wage increases are not coming from Jazz but AC. AC wanted bargain basement CPA costs and forced it onto Jazz through a co-ordinated and methodical plan. Now they’re reaping what they sowed. Jazz’s CPA income and profit margins are not roomy enough for a large raise. AC is gonna have to pony up or come up with a new plan.

AC doesn’t care about Jazz’ costs. That’s a Jazz problem. AC can just hire their pilots, repatriate the flying to mainline, and it still gets done.

[teacher]

Any pilot wage increases are not coming from Jazz but AC. AC wanted bargain basement CPA costs and forced it onto Jazz through a co-ordinated and methodical plan. Now they’re reaping what they sowed. Jazz’s CPA income and profit margins are not roomy enough for a large raise. AC is gonna have to pony up or come up with a new plan.

AC doesn’t care about Jazz’ costs. That’s a Jazz problem. AC can just hire their pilots, repatriate the flying to mainline, and it still gets done.

They sure do care or they wouldn’t have gone through a decade long mission to split, whip saw and then amalgamate all their CPA flying. AC will not repatriate what they’ve already farmed out if they can help it. Raising their CPA costs a bit is peanuts compared to bringing the flying in-house.

Not to mention that the AC pilots will more than likely threaten to strike or work to rule next near for substantial raises. This will only make bringing regional flying in house flying more expensive.

Full disclosure, I’m a former Jazz pilot Now at AC but I’m looking at it and speaking as if I was an AC manager type.

If AC chooses not to pay more for Jazz’s services to cover pilot retention I think the odds of a purchase and operated as a separate company but with a guarantied path to AC is more likely. They’ll screen their pilots at the Jazz level and remove the PML and have a proper flow through. How this works with the AC pilot contract I am not sure but anything is negotiable.

[Loon-A-Tic]

If Jazz wants a couple of tasty carrots to "attract & retain" it would be an industry leading wage and pension plan combined with a AC seniority number. The wages and pension are Chorus/AC to determine, the seniority number is for AC/ACPA to determine.

[rudder]

I guess some answers will be forthcoming if there is a January equipment bid. The 2022 equipment bid listed 1357 flying positions.

Bid 2023-01 shows 1326 flying positions with 1151 current active line pilots (training dept pilots are excluded).

This was with a described “average 14% decrease in Block hours system-wide compared to the Block hours provided in 2022” per the JAZ MEC CRC bulletin.

Math doesn’t add up. Bid 2022-01 1357 x 0.86 = 1167

Doesn’t sound like there is a clear picture of what 2023 will look like. Jazz will be smaller. Just waiting to find out how much smaller. If 20-40 pilots per month continue to resign/retire, keeping up with attrition will be nearly impossible.

By way of contrast, a Skywest pilot hired in May 2022 has already moved up 1500 numbers. Jazz is not alone in watching pilots move on. But Jazz is doing the least to improve WAWCON to assist in retention and recruitment.

[Inverted2]

Any pilot wage increases are not coming from Jazz but AC. AC wanted bargain basement CPA costs and forced it onto Jazz through a co-ordinated and methodical plan. Now they’re reaping what they sowed. Jazz’s CPA income and profit margins are not roomy enough for a large raise. AC is gonna have to pony up or come up with a new plan.

AC doesn’t care about Jazz’ costs. That’s a Jazz problem. AC can just hire their pilots, repatriate the flying to mainline, and it still gets done.

They sure do care or they wouldn’t have gone through a decade long mission to split, whip saw and then amalgamate all their CPA flying. AC will not repatriate what they’ve already farmed out if they can help it. Raising their CPA costs a bit is peanuts compared to bringing the flying in-house.

Not to mention that the AC pilots will more than likely threaten to strike or work to rule next near for substantial raises. This will only make bringing regional flying in house flying more expensive.

Full disclosure, I’m a former Jazz pilot Now at AC but I’m looking at it and speaking as if I was an AC manager type.

If AC chooses not to pay more for Jazz’s services to cover pilot retention I think the odds of a purchase and operated as a separate company but with a guarantied path to AC is more likely. They’ll screen their pilots at the Jazz level and remove the PML and have a proper flow through. How this works with the AC pilot contract I am not sure but anything is negotiable.

No you’re making way too much sense to be speaking as an AC manager type.

[Fanblade]

Any pilot wage increases are not coming from Jazz but AC. AC wanted bargain basement CPA costs and forced it onto Jazz through a co-ordinated and methodical plan. Now they’re reaping what they sowed. Jazz’s CPA income and profit margins are not roomy enough for a large raise. AC is gonna have to pony up or come up with a new plan.

AC doesn’t care about Jazz’ costs. That’s a Jazz problem. AC can just hire their pilots, repatriate the flying to mainline, and it still gets done.

Yes they do. AC could repatriate some flying to mainline for certain. However Canada is not high density like Europe or the eastern seaboard and AC can not operate a sub 110 seat aircraft on their cost structure. AC needs, and will continue to need, a separate regional, with a lower cost structure, no matter how this all plays out.

Merging Jazz into AC simply means having to start another regional airline. Not a likely outcome.

The likely outcome, and this applies to all North American regionals, is shrinking do to repatriation as replacement metal arrives at mainline. It does not mean however regionals are no longer required. All that is happening is wage increases are adjusting the metrics that go into fleet composition

[Nick678]

Any new info on the flow situation? Getting screwed to keep jazz planes flying can’t be sitting well with the pilot group.

[rudder]

Any pilot wage increases are not coming from Jazz but AC. AC wanted bargain basement CPA costs and forced it onto Jazz through a co-ordinated and methodical plan. Now they’re reaping what they sowed. Jazz’s CPA income and profit margins are not roomy enough for a large raise. AC is gonna have to pony up or come up with a new plan.

AC doesn’t care about Jazz’ costs. That’s a Jazz problem. AC can just hire their pilots, repatriate the flying to mainline, and it still gets done.

Yes they do. AC could repatriate some flying to mainline for certain. However Canada is not high density like Europe or the eastern seaboard and AC can not operate a sub 110 seat aircraft on their cost structure. AC needs, and will continue to need, a separate regional, with a lower cost structure, no matter how this all plays out.

Merging Jazz into AC simply means having to start another regional airline. Not a likely outcome.

The likely outcome, and this applies to all North American regionals, is shrinking do to repatriation as replacement metal arrives at mainline. It does not mean however regionals are no longer required. All that is happening is wage increases are adjusting the metrics that go into fleet composition

AC also has to deal with ‘slot’ issues (typically US eastern seaboard/NYC). They are “use it or lose it” slots.

If AC upguages, that means A220’s every hour 0600-2000 weekdays. That is double the seating capacity currently offered by AC. Not sure that aligns with demand.

Jazz/Express is getting smaller (block hours). That was always the plan (reduced fleet post-2025). It is just happening sooner than planned.

[truedude]

Any new info on the flow situation? Getting screwed to keep jazz planes flying can’t be sitting well with the pilot group.

They have resumed hiring, but have said nothing official beyond that.

But they have already tipped their hand and shown that they will do whatever they want, and ignore the agreement when it works in their benefit. In short, if Air Canada is your goal, Jazz is not the best or fastest path to it. Sentiments our union has echoed as well.

Our flying for this year is %14 less than last year, but I suspect even that won't be doable unless they decide to pay more.

[rudder]

Our flying for this year is %14 less than last year, but I suspect even that won't be doable unless they decide to pay more.

And remember that is 14% measured off of 2022 flying levels that were not even close to 2019 flying levels (pre COVID).

Express is now a consolidation of SKY and Jazz (and former GGN) block hours. 2023 vs 2019 will likely be significantly greater than a 14% reduction.

[Fanblade]

Our flying for this year is %14 less than last year, but I suspect even that won't be doable unless they decide to pay more.

And remember that is 14% measured off of 2022 flying levels that were not even close to 2019 flying levels (pre COVID).

Express is now a consolidation of SKY and Jazz (and former GGN) block hours. 2023 vs 2019 will likely be significantly greater than a 14% reduction.

That reduction is also coming with sacrifice for AC and opportunity for the competition. Its not just the routes or capacity AC no longer offers at the regional level. Its also the mainline routes dropped to cover what once was a Jazz route.

Shrinking isn't a viable go forward strategy for shareholders. It's written in stone for summer 2023 because it is too late to be prepared regardless of pay. Summer 2024 needs to be solved. Our current CEO cant keep taking operational hits and last.

[newlygrounded]

Any pilot wage increases are not coming from Jazz but AC. AC wanted bargain basement CPA costs and forced it onto Jazz through a co-ordinated and methodical plan. Now they’re reaping what they sowed. Jazz’s CPA income and profit margins are not roomy enough for a large raise. AC is gonna have to pony up or come up with a new plan.

AC doesn’t care about Jazz’ costs. That’s a Jazz problem. AC can just hire their pilots, repatriate the flying to mainline, and it still gets done.

Yes and no. I believe AC pays most of the fees including deice and fuel. An A220 carries more people than a CRJ and the fuel per passenger is lower, even compared to a q400.