Timing the cycle

[androids]

I think we might be missing the cycle here. Economic cracks are appearing everywhere, including travel and leisure. GDP has flatlined and credit tightening rapidly. Any economic downturn going into contract talks will only serve to seriously undermine the bargaining power pilots might of otherwise had given recent quarterly earnings. We are one of the last legacies on the continent to begin the process and will likely be negotiating into a recession, unfortunate timing imo. AC knows this.. most pilots don't.

[jpilot77]

Are contract was supposed to run into next year, we opted out early. No other way around that.

[androids]

Of course, these details aren't lost on anybody - it's unfortunate / bad luck out of the pilots control.

It still doesn't change the main point here. Periods immediately preceding end of cycles and consolidation have always been marked with strong, if not record setting, quarterly performance. The lifetime dollar cost average earnings of a pilot in Canada has now dropped well below most blue collar trade workers.

We need to see minimum gains of 60%+ across the board to bring us back anywhere close to par, and this is without factoring unknown inflation through 2025. I'm not as optimistic as I was a year ago going into this.

[Flatpay58]

I would suggest that this current lack of GDP growth has a strong likelihood of being short. It is a direct result of the Bank of Canada setting interest rates high to curb inflation. This outcome has been engineered by this government policy. The high rates leave a ton of slack to reverse course if there is any thought of a deepening or longer recession. Aiming for zero growth as an inflation policy is a very tough target to hit with precision. But here we are. I think the chance of further rate hikes is now diminished. Lower rates are likely to come. Growth should return barring any additional outside shocks.

From the airline perspective, U.S. growth is 4.9% right now which is pushing our currency low. This will drive international travellers to AC. It will also make our relative fuel costs higher in the short run. Travel outlook is strong. Forward bookings are strong.The business case for lowballing a unified and underpaid labour group due to a short-lived period of zero growth is very soft in my opinion.

More inflation is my worry rather than the economic growth. AC pilots will get a wage increase - any recession fears should be minimal by the new year. It’s that the reaction will be further rate cuts and a return to heavy investments in our already limited housing supply in the cities we are based in.

[flyingcanuck]

the economic cycles don't matter in this current climate for us, though the company will definitely make the sob story in their favour.

and really, its down turning because costs have skyrocketed (housing), which means the employees need to earn a living. Weve all given enough to these companies and their profits, its time for some back in return.

[yowflyer23]

Might not be as bleak as you’re saying. Aviation always lags too.

Hi Walter, it’s Mark here. On the booking curve, it’s in line with expectations. We see relatively strong demand for Q4 in almost every single geography that we operate in, almost every single segment that we operate in. There is a lot of additional market capacity, so that is one variable; but in terms of demand, it’s quite stable, in line with expectations, and we’re not seeing any major slowdown at this point in time. The diversification of our network gives us a lot of options to move capacity around if we do see a slowdown in one particular geography.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/464507 ... transcript

[digits_]

Might not be as bleak as you’re saying. Aviation always lags too.

Hi Walter, it’s Mark here. On the booking curve, it’s in line with expectations. We see relatively strong demand for Q4 in almost every single geography that we operate in, almost every single segment that we operate in. There is a lot of additional market capacity, so that is one variable; but in terms of demand, it’s quite stable, in line with expectations, and we’re not seeing any major slowdown at this point in time. The diversification of our network gives us a lot of options to move capacity around if we do see a slowdown in one particular geography.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/464507 ... transcript

Then again, has any executive ever said they are expecting a major slowdown before the slowdown actually happens?

[Mr. North]

Don't let the prospect of headwinds deter you from reaching the destination. We will get there.

US pilots didn't achieve these record contracts overnight. They fought for them over the course of 10+ years, little by little, through good times and bad. The UAW just broke the shackles of Regan era union busting. We're about to witness a revival of organised labour as Joe Lunchbox everywhere has realized nothing "trickles down" unless you fight for it. The Ontario education workers, the longshoremen in BC and St. Lawrence, and countless other local unions everywhere are striking and winning. My question now is how long will these clueless execs continue to use an outdated playbook? How many companies will get burned trying to hardball their workforce? MR is championing new inflight omelets while staring down a crippling pilot strike. Dragging his feet in negots to issue a subpar offer > lockout and look to the feds for help. He's setting AC up for some massive losses, we aren't f*cking around. We're all feeling the squeeze here and will gladly set the park brake.

I hope he wakes up, pays us what we're worth, and sets the airline on a prosperous course of growth and dependability. Not holding my breath though!

[7ECA]

We're about to witness a revival of organised labour as Joe Lunchbox everywhere has realized nothing "trickles down" unless you fight for it. The Ontario education workers, the longshoremen in BC and St. Lawrence, and countless other local unions everywhere are striking and winning. My question now is how long will these clueless execs continue to use an outdated playbook? How many companies will get burned trying to hardball their workforce?

I wouldn't count on unionism suddenly regaining traction continent-wide, there's been such a concerted effort to destroy unions and denigrate the ideal of collective bargaining that it will be a tough sell going forward. Really, there's still no actual disadvantage for an employer to try and bust unions or display anti-union behaviour; because no government out there can be bothered to stamp out that behaviour - with companies having so much lobbying power they're essentially operating outside the law.

This "pro" union stance will last until new administrations are elected, both in Canada and in the US. A Federal Conservative win in Canada will quite likely see the return of the back to work legislation playbook from the Harper era - regardless of its constitutionality. If the Republicans get their act together and stop the cycle of cutting off their proverbial noses to spite themselves... then the "Free Market" era Reganonics crap will return as well - although with the Trumpian fascination for trade wars, tariffs, and protectionism.

The Federal Liberals have always toed a fine line with unions, wooing their support for votes but never really going full bore on the pro labour pro union stance either - so as to not "alienate" the Laurentian business elite. The Federal NDP on the other hand, absolutely swings towards the union/labour camp; which is quite likely why the Trudeau Liberals have continued to maintain a more hands-off approach to major labour unrest and push mediation rather than legislation.

[GeoffPilot]

I think we might be missing the cycle here. Economic cracks are appearing everywhere, including travel and leisure. GDP has flatlined and credit tightening rapidly. Any economic downturn going into contract talks will only serve to seriously undermine the bargaining power pilots might of otherwise had given recent quarterly earnings. We are one of the last legacies on the continent to begin the process and will likely be negotiating into a recession, unfortunate timing imo. AC knows this.. most pilots don't.

Do you ask yourself, what is the point of my post?

Like, what am I trying to accomplish?

Propagating fear based on economics beyond our control is a useless exercise

Focus on the incredible unity demonstrated this past week in Calgary & Montreal

The government has been very clear in not getting involved in labor disputes

Stay the course & stop with this useless fear.

Total waste of time

[Ash Ketchum]

I agree that there may be a slow down in travel sometime next year. Most people I know are living cheque to cheque and eventually luxuries such as travel will need to be sacrificed. I'm just hoping the union gets all the contract clauses out soon and we finalize the deal or strike before leverage is lost.

[Donald]

Honest question:

Have AC pilots EVER negotiated when the economy wasn't in a downturn?

[RippleRock]

I think we might be missing the cycle here. Economic cracks are appearing everywhere, including travel and leisure. GDP has flatlined and credit tightening rapidly. Any economic downturn going into contract talks will only serve to seriously undermine the bargaining power pilots might of otherwise had given recent quarterly earnings. We are one of the last legacies on the continent to begin the process and will likely be negotiating into a recession, unfortunate timing imo. AC knows this.. most pilots don't.

Do you ask yourself, what is the point of my post?

Like, what am I trying to accomplish?

Propagating fear based on economics beyond our control is a useless exercise

Focus on the incredible unity demonstrated this past week in Calgary & Montreal

The government has been very clear in not getting involved in labor disputes

Stay the course & stop with this useless fear.

Total waste of time

The guys got 7 posts and some people are wondering why he's posting "doom and gloom" scenarios. Really?

Management troll alert. You're going to hear plenty more.

You know what though? If the price of fuel rises, they will pay it. If the price of an engine overhaul rises, they will pay it. If the landing fees rise, they will pay it. If the cost of a new tug rises, they will pay it. I could go on forever.

The Company has billions, and will continue to have and make billions more. They will happily pay every expense but YOU. Don't buy the mantra. Ignore the Management trolls as they're just getting spooled up.

HOLD THE LINE.

[tbayav8er]

Personally, my expectations are basically the United contract. Anything less, and we're selling ourselves short.

[JHR]

Personally, my expectations are basically the United contract. Anything less, and we're selling ourselves short.

Hahahahahaha that is the funniest thing I have read all day. I predict WJ numbers plus 5-10%. I really hope I am wrong

[Blueontop]

United contract or planes don’t fly. Simple as that. We hold the cards not them.

Hold. The. Line.

[RippleRock]

Personally, my expectations are basically the United contract. Anything less, and we're selling ourselves short.

Hahahahahaha that is the funniest thing I have read all day. I predict WJ numbers plus 5-10%. I really hope I am wrong

I really hope you're a management schill, my bet is you are. If not, we don't need your weakness within 10km of the picket line.

Anyway, good luck in your future endevours outside aviation. If your expectations are this low for what will likely be the most important contract of ones career, you'll need all the luck you can possibly get going forward.

[JHR]

Lol I don't work for AC.
I don't think the pilots have the resolve to hold out for such an improvement. And I think the government will get involved if there is a prolonged work stoppage.
I wish you guys the best and hope I am proved wrong!

[Blueontop]

I have the resolve. I will walk the picket line as long as it takes. Short term pain for long term gain. The very mental logic most had to convince themselves and their family to go to AC to be begin with.

[teacher]

You just need to ask yourself. Has management or any office staff for that matter taken a pay cut or reduced their raises in a down turn, slower economic growth or to “capture the flying”?

We all know the answer to that question and the pilot group has had ENOUGH which is why I’m confident this time WILL be different.

[DanWEC]

As it's been said, the pilots have no bearing on the company's financial position. The company has to pay market rate, end of story.

Using simple numbers from AC's reports, I get a rough estimate to give every single pilot on the roster a $50,000 a year raise at a cost of 6 bucks a ticket. That's roughly a 1.5% increase of the average ticket price. I'm sure ALPA has more accurate figures down to the penny but I'd bet they're in the same ballpark if not even less.

Peanuts, so don't think asking for more is a hardship for the company.

[accountant]

Personally, my expectations are basically the United contract. Anything less, and we're selling ourselves short.

Hahahahahaha that is the funniest thing I have read all day. I predict WJ numbers plus 5-10%. I really hope I am wrong

You’ll be higher than that but no where near united.

[RippleRock]

Personally, my expectations are basically the United contract. Anything less, and we're selling ourselves short.

Hahahahahaha that is the funniest thing I have read all day. I predict WJ numbers plus 5-10%. I really hope I am wrong

You’ll be higher than that but no where near united.

We'll see schill.

[‘Bob’]

United might not even be United if they negotiate today with Fedex starting to implode. What goes around is all around.

[tbayav8er]

We're worth what the labour market demands. No different than fuel, airport slot prices, etc. Currently that market demands United wages.