Timing the cycle

[PositiveRate27]

Hey accountant,

You’re on record saying WS should get 4%, nothing more. They ended up with 6x that. What were the reasons they got such a high # (by your assessment) and why were you so far off?

[twa22]

Westjet doesn't fly the same quantity or quality internationally as Air Canada in that they do not cater to business or first class passengers. Westjet also has been pulling service out of Eastern Canada, with both wide and narrowbody traffic reductions. Yes, domestic and transborder market capacity is saturated by service providers, but internationally Air Canada has no equals in Canada - and operates on a very favorourable cost advantage.

You sure about that?

https://simpleflying.com/westjet-7-boei ... an-routes/

Some of the routes they pulled are coming back, and they are introducing 2 new ones... If I were to guess, if AC continues to pull out of various routes, Westjet will pick up the slack

2/3 of AC revenue comes from international flying. I think that is where the distinction is being made.

On one hand AC management insist AC pilots should only be compared to other Canadian pilots. But the majority of AC pilots are employed to compete with companies outside the Canadian boarder.

The Canadian comparison thing is simply a strategy to keep Canadian pilot wages dislodged from the global pilot market. But it goes even further. To keep Canadian pilot wages dislodged from historical norms even within Canada. A strategy to use CCAA from 20 years ago to lock in cheap pilot labour going forward.

Right, in full agreement with you. AC needs to be compared to airlines outside of Canada as on the whole, they are competing with the outside world for the most part.

But with that said, if people want to compare AC to Canada only and say there is no competition, hence pilots have no where to go, and so there is no higher bar to be set, well, when WS comes in and pulls the rug from under AC by introducing more and more international routes, who's to say there can't be a new player in Canada on the international level?

I don't have all the details but from what I've read and heard in the past, WS tried to compete on the international level, but that didn't go so well, hence the cancellation of the remaining 787s they had on order and last year pulling out of the eastern routes to Europe in favour of concentrating on their network out of Calgary... It seems this latest news about reintroducing 5 routes cut in 2022, and adding 2 new routes (well 1 new eastern route), would indicate that the abandoning of eastern routes was short lived. On the whole, one would think this should help increase the competition going forward, and in turn helps AC negotiations going forward. I know this is a small example and might not be meaningful right now, but I would hope that for those who want to compare AC to Canada only, that this is an indication of what's to come in the future

[cjp]

Yourre right. No competition. 0. No one at all. AC is the only airline in Canada /s
What’s your deal dude?
You think there aren’t pilots who want to work for AC but won’t due to the wages? You think everyone wants to commute to crashpads on expensive passes and crummy flat pay?
Does a WJ 737 fly in a different environment than a AC 737?

Westjet doesn't fly the same quantity or quality internationally as Air Canada in that they do not cater to business or first class passengers. Westjet also has been pulling service out of Eastern Canada, with both wide and narrowbody traffic reductions. Yes, domestic and transborder market capacity is saturated by service providers, but internationally Air Canada has no equals in Canada - and operates on a very favorourable cost advantage.

You sure about that?

https://simpleflying.com/westjet-7-boei ... an-routes/

Some of the routes they pulled are coming back, and they are introducing 2 new ones... If I were to guess, if AC continues to pull out of various routes, Westjet will pick up the slack

I'm sure about that.

Calgary or Halifax to the U.K or Iceland using a 737 Max doesn't scream Air Canada competition. That's more Air Transat competition.

Increasing service out of YYZ , YVR or YUL using the 787 to destinations like Hong Kong, Delhi, Dubai, Frankfurt, Paris, or Sydney (I skipped naming places in South America) is more along the lines of expansion that I would consider comparable to Air Canada's high value routes.

[twa22]

Westjet doesn't fly the same quantity or quality internationally as Air Canada in that they do not cater to business or first class passengers. Westjet also has been pulling service out of Eastern Canada, with both wide and narrowbody traffic reductions. Yes, domestic and transborder market capacity is saturated by service providers, but internationally Air Canada has no equals in Canada - and operates on a very favorourable cost advantage.

You sure about that?

https://simpleflying.com/westjet-7-boei ... an-routes/

Some of the routes they pulled are coming back, and they are introducing 2 new ones... If I were to guess, if AC continues to pull out of various routes, Westjet will pick up the slack

I'm sure about that.

Calgary or Halifax to the U.K or Iceland using a 737 Max doesn't scream Air Canada competition. That's more Air Transat competition.

Increasing service out of YYZ , YVR or YUL using the 787 to destinations like Hong Kong, Delhi, Dubai, Frankfurt, Paris, or Sydney (I skipped naming places in South America) is more along the lines of expansion that I would consider comparable to Air Canada's high value routes.

My post was more directly aimed at the pulling out of Eastern routes, which was true until recently. Regarding other international routes, you are right, but who's to say things can't change (like I mentioned in my last post quoting fanblade)

[cjp]

You sure about that?

https://simpleflying.com/westjet-7-boei ... an-routes/

Some of the routes they pulled are coming back, and they are introducing 2 new ones... If I were to guess, if AC continues to pull out of various routes, Westjet will pick up the slack

I'm sure about that.

Calgary or Halifax to the U.K or Iceland using a 737 Max doesn't scream Air Canada competition. That's more Air Transat competition.

Increasing service out of YYZ , YVR or YUL using the 787 to destinations like Hong Kong, Delhi, Dubai, Frankfurt, Paris, or Sydney (I skipped naming places in South America) is more along the lines of expansion that I would consider comparable to Air Canada's high value routes.

My post was more directly aimed at the pulling out of Eastern routes, which was true until recently. Regarding other international routes, you are right, but who's to say things can't change (like I mentioned in my last post quoting fanblade)

I can't wait and hope to see Westjet transfer from Southwest 1.5 to an industry leading company with their restructuring.

[twa22]

I'm sure about that.

Calgary or Halifax to the U.K or Iceland using a 737 Max doesn't scream Air Canada competition. That's more Air Transat competition.

Increasing service out of YYZ , YVR or YUL using the 787 to destinations like Hong Kong, Delhi, Dubai, Frankfurt, Paris, or Sydney (I skipped naming places in South America) is more along the lines of expansion that I would consider comparable to Air Canada's high value routes.

My post was more directly aimed at the pulling out of Eastern routes, which was true until recently. Regarding other international routes, you are right, but who's to say things can't change (like I mentioned in my last post quoting fanblade)

I can't wait and hope to see Westjet transfer from Southwest 1.5 to an industry leading company with their restructuring.

I think WS is a bit past southwest 1.5, but let's not digress and thread drift

[Ash Ketchum]

It is absolutely incredible that you are able to lead a normal life on strike pay. I have the utmost respect for you and all those that have that sort of financial intelligence as we have seen how easy it is to grow accustomed to each pay bump along the road.

That being said, I am absolutely disgusted that many Air Canada pilots are willing to go on strike because it will increase their take home pay. I just vomited in my mouth a little reading that!

Please help me understand, maybe my truths do not align with reality. I have come to understand that the free market may not be perfect but we do live in a society governed by Capitalism. I have also come to understand that the happiest of people have aligned their expectations with the reality of the situation. The fundamentals of capitalism, which our entire economy is driven by, is based on supply and demand. This is not an argument but rather a reality we must face.

The flying out of Calgary is a great example. Correct me if I’m wrong but doesn’t Jazz play a large role in AC structure as they fly Air Canada routes? So WestJet and Porter show up all delivering financial incentives far superior to Jazz and all of a sudden jazz is parking planes due to lack of pilots because they have all gone to fly the same plane for double the pay

Let’s try a different perspective. Notice when anything relating to the pilot shortage is mentioned we jump to the conclusion that this is great for our wages? As pilots, we are merely numbers. Yes we do drive the boat but for every pilot who will hold the line we have a pilot who thinks it’s a great idea to fly cargo for 10% less.

So what % of pilots left AC for another job offer in the last 5 years?

How many pilots were willing and will continue to accept pay cuts for flat pay if it does not change?

Let’s say the unbelievable happens and you only get WestJet contact, what will you do if it is to be accepted? What other options do you have?

I have flown with multiple people who have come to AC this year on the assumption that we will be getting a world class contract in the next 4-8 months. A lot of them commute from YYC. They are adamant that if this contract is substandard they will be off to team teal. Not only does the contract have to be a vast improvement from where we are, but it also has to blow the doors off of WS because AC not only has to offset the cost of commuting, it also has to offset the cost of extra time away from home.

Pilots leaving AC is a real eventuality depending on the result of this contract. The membership has indicated via internal polling that a not insignificant number of pilots will be leaving if this contract is not to their satisfaction. This is a first in AC’s history and actually supports the supply and demand argument.

AC can play chicken with the contract if they want, but they are already losing market share at an alarming rate. This all while people are still coming here hoping the contract is world class.

How does the saying go? “F*ck around and find out.”

Exactly, I am in this boat as well. With a wife, kids, and a mortgage unless we can get 120K+ for a year 1/2 flat pay pilot I'm gone. It's a pilots market so lots of opportunities to make good money if AC isn't willing to pay.

[accountant]

My post was more directly aimed at the pulling out of Eastern routes, which was true until recently. Regarding other international routes, you are right, but who's to say things can't change (like I mentioned in my last post quoting fanblade)

I can't wait and hope to see Westjet transfer from Southwest 1.5 to an industry leading company with their restructuring.

I think WS is a bit past southwest 1.5, but let's not digress and thread drift

Pretty sure they tried to not be this when they added the 787s and pushed for expansion.... then they retreated, cut quality on the premium products and literally have just been back to Greyhound 2.0. If anything it's been a step back with the changes, not forward.

[accountant]

Exactly, I am in this boat as well. With a wife, kids, and a mortgage unless we can get 120K+ for a year 1/2 flat pay pilot I'm gone. It's a pilots market so lots of opportunities to make good money if AC isn't willing to pay.

Do you still think that's the case with the retreat on freight volumes affecting air cargo carriers? Cargojet has sold off some frames. Fedex volumes dropping. You name it. I don't think we see the full impact of this for a year, but it's already out there....

[Fanblade]

This is why you won't get the contract you think you deserve. You're too worried about my comments than negotiating.

And yes - I still believe Unifor is useless. LOL

Not worried about you at all. Just making sure everyone knows what they are dealing with.

In fact you have brought in a lot of insight which is of value to anyone who hasn’t gone through this process with management.

The first thing that pops right out of your writing is your insistence that you get to dictate our value. I know why management does this. It won’t work here.

The next thing that pops out is your lack of respect for the profession. It’s palpable.

How many strikes have you endured? That in itself is revealing.

You can just sense the anxiety skyrocketing in your posts as unions take control. Not even your employees doing it. We only get control once every few years. Management has trouble with loss of control. Everyone else is the idiot. Right?

Last but not least. You were wrong about WJ. Way wrong.

[lostaviator]

This is why you won't get the contract you think you deserve. You're too worried about my comments than negotiating.

And yes - I still believe Unifor is useless. LOL

Not worried about you at all. Just making sure everyone knows what they are dealing with.

In fact you have brought in a lot of insight which is of value to anyone who hasn’t gone through this process with management.

The first thing that pops right out of your writing is your insistence that you get to dictate our value. I know why management does this. It won’t work here.

The next thing that pops out is your lack of respect for the profession. It’s palpable.

How many strikes have you endured? That in itself is revealing.

You can just sense the anxiety skyrocketing in your posts as unions take control. Not even your employees doing it. We only get control once every few years. Management has trouble with loss of control. Everyone else is the idiot. Right?

Last but not least. You were wrong about WJ. Way wrong.

I almost feel bad for the person behind accountants keyboard. Imagine getting so involved in something that “doesn’t affect them” (except his/her management bonus that is). Sad way to waste time.

[Ash Ketchum]

Exactly, I am in this boat as well. With a wife, kids, and a mortgage unless we can get 120K+ for a year 1/2 flat pay pilot I'm gone. It's a pilots market so lots of opportunities to make good money if AC isn't willing to pay.

Do you still think that's the case with the retreat on freight volumes affecting air cargo carriers? Cargojet has sold off some frames. Fedex volumes dropping. You name it. I don't think we see the full impact of this for a year, but it's already out there....

There's a job ad on here for 703 King Air captains in Manitoba making 200K. Not to mention corporate, medivac, Transport Canada, and international airline jobs which I get recruiter emails from on a weekly basis. Won't be hard to get a better paying position if AC doesn't pan out.

[accountant]

Exactly, I am in this boat as well. With a wife, kids, and a mortgage unless we can get 120K+ for a year 1/2 flat pay pilot I'm gone. It's a pilots market so lots of opportunities to make good money if AC isn't willing to pay.

Do you still think that's the case with the retreat on freight volumes affecting air cargo carriers? Cargojet has sold off some frames. Fedex volumes dropping. You name it. I don't think we see the full impact of this for a year, but it's already out there....

There's a job ad on here for 703 King Air captains in Manitoba making 200K. Not to mention corporate, medivac, Transport Canada, and international airline jobs which I get recruiter emails from on a weekly basis. Won't be hard to get a better paying position if AC doesn't pan out.

That’s not what I was asking. I’m actually curious if any of you think the freight situation will get worse and whether you think this might affect passenger travel which we probably won’t notice for a while.

[altiplano]

Really you have it backwards, passenger volumes and capacity affect cargo, not the other way around.

Much of the drop you see at these dedicated cargo carriers is a shift in volumes as more belly capacity moves into passenger aircraft.

What you also see is a retreat in yield. 3 years ago cargo prices were through the roof. There wasn't enough lift because of all the passenger capacity removed during covid, and all the freight shifted into dedicated cargo carriers. Not so much anymore, there's more capacity and competition and prices have normalized.

With Cargojet in particular you also see an effect from Air Canada's competitive response in this market. Following the discontinuation of the ill advised cargo feed deal that ACPA allowed between AC / CJ in ~2016, CJ was shown the way and kept many of AC's clients out of South America and other routes. Now with their own freighters, AC has taken back much of that and we are seeing a corresponding retraction at CJ.

[Fanblade]

That’s not what I was asking. I’m actually curious if any of you think the freight situation will get worse and whether you think this might affect passenger travel which we probably won’t notice for a while.

Prior to the 777 most long haul aircraft had difficulty doing it all. All the pax. All the fuel. All the cargo. Passenger carriers couldn’t guarantee freight lift and didn’t go after freight contracts in a meaningful way.

Then came the 777. After it the 787 and 350. These aircraft could do it all. Passengers, cargo and fuel. Every passenger airline became a belly lift freighter. The sudden supply increase caused yields to drop. They stayed that way for a decade or more. Dedicated freighter operations disappeared at most passenger airlines. The successful Cargo companies developed into point to point delivery.

Then came covid and with it, the supply chain disruption. Doubling the problem overnight passenger belly lift gone. Cargo yields took off. Cargo expanded.

Then Covid ended. Passenger belly lift returned. Supply chains started to mend. Yield dropped. Cargo companies feel the pain and retreat as supply chains start to normalize.

As for AC. They have a few long time lucrative routes. Mostly South America and others to Europe and Asia that are time of year dependent. They may be able to effectively utilize the smaller 767, and smaller fleet size, to complement the larger overall belly lift operation. I doubt we will see an expansion. There is higher probability of a retreat from dedicated freighters if they start sending more Widebody aircraft into South American destinations.

But overall. Freight is just normalizing after Covid. I’m actually at a loss as to why some people thought Covid freight yields were the new normal. Or why their return to pre COVID levels wasn’t to be expected.

Your question makes me wonder how much you understand the aviation industry in Canada. On the other hand someone on the regional side might not be familiar. It could also be that you know this and are just trying to create fear by trying to suggest an aviation cliff is on the horizon.

[PositiveRate27]

That’s not what I was asking. I’m actually curious if any of you think the freight situation will get worse and whether you think this might affect passenger travel which we probably won’t notice for a while.

Prior to the 777 most long haul aircraft had difficulty doing it all. All the pax. All the fuel. All the cargo. Passenger carriers couldn’t guarantee freight lift and didn’t go after freight contracts in a meaningful way.

Then came the 777. After it the 787 and 350. These aircraft could do it all. Passengers, cargo and fuel. Every passenger airline became a belly lift freighter. The sudden supply increase caused yields to drop. They stayed that way for a decade or more. Dedicated freighter operations disappeared at most passenger airlines. The successful Cargo companies developed into point to point delivery.

Then came covid and with it, the supply chain disruption. Doubling the problem overnight passenger belly lift gone. Cargo yields took off. Cargo expanded.

Then Covid ended. Passenger belly lift returned. Supply chains started to mend. Yield dropped. Cargo companies feel the pain and retreat as supply chains start to normalize.

As for AC. They have a few long time lucrative routes. Mostly South America and others to Europe and Asia that are time of year dependent. They may be able to effectively utilize the smaller 767, and smaller fleet size, to complement the larger overall belly lift operation. I doubt we will see an expansion. There is higher probability of a retreat from dedicated freighters if they start sending more Widebody aircraft into South American destinations.

But overall. Freight is just normalizing after Covid. I’m actually at a loss as to why some people thought Covid freight yields were the new normal. Or why their return to pre COVID levels wasn’t to be expected.

Your question makes me wonder how much you understand the aviation industry in Canada. On the other hand someone on the regional side might not be familiar. It could also be that you know this and are just trying to create fear by trying to suggest an aviation cliff is on the horizon.

I suspect his goal is the final sentence of your post. It won’t work.

[Ash Ketchum]

Exactly, he is trying to make us scared so we accept a crappy deal. Not sure if he is a troll or an actual manager at an airline. This tactic won't work, it's a pilots market so if AC doesn't pay someone else will. Experienced ATPL pilots are in short supply globally so we have no shortage of places to go if AC doesn't pay us what we are worth.

[JHR]

Where exactly would you go if AC doesn't up the pay?

[vanislepilot]

Where exactly would you go if AC doesn't up the pay?

Costco

Next question please

[canadian_aviator_4]

Where exactly would you go if AC doesn't up the pay?

Costco

Next question please

I was thinking OF. We all have feet.

[Curiousflyer]

That’s not what I was asking. I’m actually curious if any of you think the freight situation will get worse and whether you think this might affect passenger travel which we probably won’t notice for a while.

Freight will absolutely get worse, it was a terrible initiative made even worse by letting go the only guy who knew what they were doing with freight, Jason Berry.

The freight issue is just another management misstep in this poorly run company that investors are getting sick of dealing with. Air Canada posted massive revenues, not because it’s well run, but because travel demand outpaces supply, of which AC is drastically losing market share. Air Canada is 20% smaller today than it was in 2018, with 20% more outstanding shares than 2018. The only reason the stock price hasn’t cratered to $1 is because AC is the only game in town.

It’s is no longer the pilots job to fix the mismanagement at AC, the majority (DC pension) of pilots at AC no longer care if Air Canada goes bankrupt. It doesn’t matter to me at all, I don’t lose my pension, I’ll be back to work for whomever picks up the pieces of the broken airline (for the same rates or I’ll go somewhere else).

AC management is dealing with a pilot group that they’ve never dealt with before, one that will absolutely bankrupt the company if need be. Legislate back to work? No thanks, here’s my letter of resignation, I’ll work for the new company that cleans out AC after bankruptcy thanks.

[JHR]

Lots of tough talk but when it comes down to it very few will quit and very few would not go back to work if legislated back. Just the way it is. People saying they will quit and go somewhere else. Honest question...where would you go?

[Blueontop]

Lots of tough talk but when it comes down to it very few will quit and very few would not go back to work if legislated back. Just the way it is. People saying they will quit and go somewhere else. Honest question...where would you go?

Watch ME get legislated back to work. I will go overseas or the US or even back to my previous gig. Really JHR? Are you just another accountant in disguise profile

[JHR]

No. Just honestly curious

[digits_]

Lots of tough talk but when it comes down to it very few will quit and very few would not go back to work if legislated back. Just the way it is. People saying they will quit and go somewhere else. Honest question...where would you go?

Watch ME get legislated back to work. I will go overseas or the US or even back to my previous gig. Really JHR? Are you just another accountant in disguise profile

The real question is: what do you expect the majority of your colleagues to do?

And the even harder question: how can you convince them to not do what they will likely do?