EXPECTED NUMBER OF RETIREES AT AC.

[ASSAM]

Good day everyone,

Kindly wanted to ask what is the rough number of AC pilots expected to retire annually.

Don't ask why I care... Just curious if AC hiring is MAINLY due to expansion or expected retirement.

Thanks in advance!

[BTD]

Why do you care?

[CaptDukeNukem]

+1

The fact that you said “don’t ask why I care” makes me wonder why you care.

You definitely should tell us why you care before someone gives you false information on this subject. Then you can use the info to make important life decisions.

[JHR]

500

[yhz41]

500

Per day?

[ZBBYLW]

Over the next 50 years I'd gather the answer to be close to 100%

[Xander]

It’s been approx. 100-120/yr for the past few years. You can expect that number to remain the same until the last boomer retires in the next 5 years or so.

[ASSAM]

+1

The fact that you said “don’t ask why I care” makes me wonder why you care.

You definitely should tell us why you care before someone gives you false information on this subject. Then you can use the info to make important life decisions.

Thanks CaptDukeNukem and everyone that responded.

While I did mention "don't ask why I care" in the post, I did also mention that I wanted to know what was the reason behind the massive hiring by AC i.e. is it because of the expected number of retirees or expansion. It definitely is both retirements and possible expansion but I wanted to have an idea of which one is most of the two.

Reason behind my question is just to have an idea of one's future progression if they decide to move to AC at this point given most of the hiring is completed (over 900 hired this year and over 600 expected to be hired next year or so)

Any further information will be greatly appreciated.

[ASSAM]

It’s been approx. 100-120/yr for the past few years. You can expect that number to remain the same until the last boomer retires in the next 5 years or so.

Thanks Xander for your response.
I'd imagine it'll slow down a bit after that since most by then will be relatively younger i.e. low average age than what it currently at. Would you say so as well?

Thanks again.

[vanislepilot]

are you trying to time your number in?
That’s what i’m seeing by this post.
I think a lot of it depends on how old you are. 55? 45? 30? 24?
If you can get in young enough I feel like you will rise to the top of list in due time.
I feel like if your under 30 no problemo at all

[alkaseltzer]

Good day everyone,

Kindly wanted to ask what is the rough number of AC pilots expected to retire annually.

Don't ask why I care... Just curious if AC hiring is MAINLY due to expansion or expected retirement.

Thanks in advance!

You sound literate. Quarterly financial reports.

[Co-Joe Exotic]

Code: Select all

Year
Count Total

2023
77

2024
55

2025
69

2026
77

2027
111

2028
109

2029
146

2030
143

2031
145

2032
138

2033
136

2034
102

2035
143

2036
124

2037
143

[alkaseltzer]

Code: Select all

Year
Count Total

2023
77

2024
55

2025
69

2026
77

2027
111

2028
109

2029
146

2030
143

2031
145

2032
138

2033
136

2034
102

2035
143

2036
124

2037
143

And there's your answer. That's ONLY like 6 months of hiring at the current rate. Drop in the bucket. Not counting guys who move elsewhere, go on disability, etc.

[Canpilot7]

An important discussion. When people talk about their career advancement at AC they need to keep in mind that outside this hiring boom (which will slow before long here), the advancement doesn't happen quick when 100 people retire out of 5 or 6 thousand.

Going to unfortunately be eye opening for some that didn't do the math, but these discussions are the only way to ensure people aren't dissapointed!

[alkaseltzer]

An important discussion. When people talk about their career advancement at AC they need to keep in mind that outside this hiring boom (which will slow before long here), the advancement doesn't happen quick when 100 people retire out of 5 or 6 thousand.

Going to unfortunately be eye opening for some that didn't do the math, but these discussions are the only way to ensure people aren't dissapointed!

People who will be disappointed first are KD's interviewee clients and ex-Jazz RJ captains.

[rudder]

It is all about hiring ‘waves.

1978/1979 wave hires are all gone. No hiring 1980-1984 (except a few ex CP Air 1980).

There were early-outs in the 2021 retirement incentive initiative which reduces 2022-2027 retirement projections.

I think that pilots are hoping that AC age 65 attrition mirrors the US projected age 65 attrition (boomer retirements). It does not.

[DanWEC]

Has there been any recent discussion around the 67 retirement age? I half assume between shortage of pilots, in-flight technology, and health improvements that by the time I retire in a few decades it'll have been changed.

[Upgradeable]

Edited

[Canpilot7]

An important discussion. When people talk about their career advancement at AC they need to keep in mind that outside this hiring boom (which will slow before long here), the advancement doesn't happen quick when 100 people retire out of 5 or 6 thousand.

Going to unfortunately be eye opening for some that didn't do the math, but these discussions are the only way to ensure people aren't dissapointed!

This might be difficult to answer, but let's say a candidate gets hired at the start of 2025 when this hiring boom should slow down, how many years could they expect to put in before they make left seat on a widebody?

Obviously it would depend on the base and aircraft, but what would be a reasonable estimate to make captain on a widebody? And then subsequently be able to hold good seniority as a widebody captain?

I think unless something drastic changes and the airline has to expand rapidly in the future (with the way aircraft manufacturers are going, doesn't seem like we'll be adding back flight engineers any time soon lol), that's only going to happen if the candidate is younger than all the pilots that have been hired in this wave. And they've been hired pretty young. If the candidate is in fact younger, then they'd have their seniority skyrocket for their last two or three years when the post covid hires retire. If the candidate is older, well then math is math.

[Upgradeable]

Edited

[Col. Panic]

This might be difficult to answer, but let's say a candidate gets hired at the start of 2025 when this hiring boom should slow down, how many years could they expect to put in before they make left seat on a widebody?

Obviously it would depend on the base and aircraft, but what would be a reasonable estimate to make captain on a widebody? And then subsequently be able to hold good seniority as a widebody captain?

I think unless something drastic changes and the airline has to expand rapidly in the future (with the way aircraft manufacturers are going, doesn't seem like we'll be adding back flight engineers any time soon lol), that's only going to happen if the candidate is younger than all the pilots that have been hired in this wave. And they've been hired pretty young. If the candidate is in fact younger, then they'd have their seniority skyrocket for their last two or three years when the post covid hires retire. If the candidate is older, well then math is math.

Would a candidate who was hired after this boom reasonably expect to make captain on a widebody if they were 30 years old at the time of hiring? If yes, how long would you say it would take to achieve that?

Edit: sorry if I'm pestering you with questions. I'm just trying to figure out what direction I'd like to take my career.

There are 767 captains right now with 6 years of seniority. That is a bit of an outlier as the freighter went very junior for various reasons, and those guys are being reduced… but I think it’s fair to assume that it is possible for a 30 year old new hire to be a WB captain in 20-25 years.

[Upgradeable]

Edited

[flying4dollars]

I think unless something drastic changes and the airline has to expand rapidly in the future (with the way aircraft manufacturers are going, doesn't seem like we'll be adding back flight engineers any time soon lol), that's only going to happen if the candidate is younger than all the pilots that have been hired in this wave. And they've been hired pretty young. If the candidate is in fact younger, then they'd have their seniority skyrocket for their last two or three years when the post covid hires retire. If the candidate is older, well then math is math.

Would a candidate who was hired after this boom reasonably expect to make captain on a widebody if they were 30 years old at the time of hiring? If yes, how long would you say it would take to achieve that?

Edit: sorry if I'm pestering you with questions. I'm just trying to figure out what direction I'd like to take my career.

There are 767 captains right now with 6 years of seniority. That is a bit of an outlier as the freighter went very junior for various reasons, and those guys are being reduced… but I think it’s fair to assume that it is possible for a 30 year old new hire to be a WB captain in 20-25 years.

Holding it is one thing, but is he upgradeable?




...I'll show myself out

[Upgradeable]

Edited

[yowflyer23]

When were the last few hiring booms at AC?