OT opportunities?

[Daigo]

Hello. I'm considering AC vs some other options. I was initially leaning towards AC but now have become doubtful due to just how far back they are in terms of pay vs every one else and how much one would have to struggle the first year. The only way i see surviving on $58k in a big city is picking up OT. So my question is how much of an opportunity is there right now for OT? And for what types?

Thanks!

[billybgone345]

Hello. I'm considering AC vs some other options. I was initially leaning towards AC but now have become doubtful due to just how far back they are in terms of pay vs every one else and how much one would have to struggle the first year. The only way i see surviving on $58k in a big city is picking up OT. So my question is how much of an opportunity is there right now for OT? And for what types?

Thanks!

During contract negotiations it's looked unfavourable picking up OT because you are helping the company drag it's heels and not feel pressure in getting negotiations done. Yes there are a few bad apples doing it but the large majority are not.
I'd be more concerned about your seniority. 5300 pilots with the last 1800 hired after 2021- that means a lot of fresh faced pilots senior to you for the rest of your career. The bottom third of NB captains are already late 20's/ early 30's who will sit there for 20 years before upgrading to WB captains. Now imagine all the young FOs who will eventually join them before you.
If you have a realistic career expecting a slow grind then great! If you expect to upgrade in 2 years or less that ship almost guaranteed to have sailed already

[Man_in_the_sky]

If you rely on OT to make your month, look somewhere else.

As billy said, it's not a good look to take OT specially on flat pay because that's the group that will benefits the most quickly of a better contract.

[thepoors]

Hello. I'm considering AC vs some other options. I was initially leaning towards AC but now have become doubtful due to just how far back they are in terms of pay vs every one else and how much one would have to struggle the first year. The only way i see surviving on $58k in a big city is picking up OT. So my question is how much of an opportunity is there right now for OT? And for what types?

Thanks!

During contract negotiations it's looked unfavourable picking up OT because you are helping the company drag it's heels and not feel pressure in getting negotiations done. Yes there are a few bad apples doing it but the large majority are not.
I'd be more concerned about your seniority. 5300 pilots with the last 1800 hired after 2021- that means a lot of fresh faced pilots senior to you for the rest of your career. The bottom third of NB captains are already late 20's/ early 30's who will sit there for 20 years before upgrading to WB captains. Now imagine all the young FOs who will eventually join them before you.
If you have a realistic career expecting a slow grind then great! If you expect to upgrade in 2 years or less that ship almost guaranteed to have sailed already

Isn't the plan to add at least another 1200 by 2025? I see your point if WB CA is your ultimate goal, but if you're getting hired now you will still climb in seniority pretty quickly. Plus if the new contract is solid, WB pay shouldn't matter that much in the long run.

[Daigo]

I didn't know picking it up was looked down upon right now. I agree that helping out the pilot group at this time is more worthwhile than short-term gain. Hopefully the new contract would be enough that one wouldn't need OT or picking up a 2nd job to get by

Isn't the plan to add at least another 1200 by 2025? I see your point if WB CA is your ultimate goal, but if you're getting hired now you will still climb in seniority pretty quickly. Plus if the new contract is solid, WB pay shouldn't matter that much in the long run.

Okay that's pretty decent to hear. Do you know any details from the new contract? I tried looking around and cant find anything on it

[bcflyer]

We are still in negotiations. The company is dragging their feet. There is some progress being made but it’s very very slow. The general consensus is that if it’s not a significant improvement it will get voted down and honestly a strike is a very real possibility. (Although the company would likely lock us out first.)

[vanislepilot]

Hello. I'm considering AC vs some other options. I was initially leaning towards AC but now have become doubtful due to just how far back they are in terms of pay vs every one else and how much one would have to struggle the first year. The only way i see surviving on $58k in a big city is picking up OT. So my question is how much of an opportunity is there right now for OT? And for what types?

Thanks!

I'd be more concerned about your seniority. 5300 pilots with the last 1800 hired after 2021- that means a lot of fresh faced pilots senior to you for the rest of your career. The bottom third of NB captains are already late 20's/ early 30's who will sit there for 20 years before upgrading to WB captains. Now imagine all the young FOs who will eventually join them before you.
If you have a realistic career expecting a slow grind then great! If you expect to upgrade in 2 years or less that ship almost guaranteed to have sailed already

I wouldn’t be too too sure about that… the reality is you or I don’t know.
Is hiring going to slow down from peak 2023, yeah probably, buts it’s not gonna stop. I think AC is close to the 5400 mark. The numbers floating around are 7000 by end of 2026 and 8000 by 2030. How long is OP planning to stay here? 5 years or 40?
With a new good contract, I could see AC continually making record profits and with some good leadership the airline could continue expanding. Aviation will only become more accessible and affordable in the coming decades, I don’t see anything coming to a screeching halt (unless of course we get a covid 20, in which case we will bounce back again)
OP, if you are young, it doesn’t really matter which path you take

[rudder]

Hello. I'm considering AC vs some other options. I was initially leaning towards AC but now have become doubtful due to just how far back they are in terms of pay vs every one else and how much one would have to struggle the first year. The only way i see surviving on $58k in a big city is picking up OT. So my question is how much of an opportunity is there right now for OT? And for what types?

Thanks!

I'd be more concerned about your seniority. 5300 pilots with the last 1800 hired after 2021- that means a lot of fresh faced pilots senior to you for the rest of your career. The bottom third of NB captains are already late 20's/ early 30's who will sit there for 20 years before upgrading to WB captains. Now imagine all the young FOs who will eventually join them before you.
If you have a realistic career expecting a slow grind then great! If you expect to upgrade in 2 years or less that ship almost guaranteed to have sailed already

I wouldn’t be too too sure about that… the reality is you or I don’t know.
Is hiring going to slow down from peak 2023, yeah probably, buts it’s not gonna stop. I think AC is close to the 5400 mark. The numbers floating around are 7000 by end of 2026 and 8000 by 2030. How long is OP planning to stay here? 5 years or 40?
With a new good contract, I could see AC continually making record profits and with some good leadership the airline could continue expanding. Aviation will only become more accessible and affordable in the coming decades, I don’t see anything coming to a screeching halt (unless of course we get a covid 20, in which case we will bounce back again)
OP, if you are young, it doesn’t really matter which path you take

7000? 8000?

Those numbers have never come up in any reality based conversation, unless you are taking within the context of a TS or WJ merger with AC.

12/2025 6200-6300

[billybgone345]

Hello. I'm considering AC vs some other options. I was initially leaning towards AC but now have become doubtful due to just how far back they are in terms of pay vs every one else and how much one would have to struggle the first year. The only way i see surviving on $58k in a big city is picking up OT. So my question is how much of an opportunity is there right now for OT? And for what types?

Thanks!

I'd be more concerned about your seniority. 5300 pilots with the last 1800 hired after 2021- that means a lot of fresh faced pilots senior to you for the rest of your career. The bottom third of NB captains are already late 20's/ early 30's who will sit there for 20 years before upgrading to WB captains. Now imagine all the young FOs who will eventually join them before you.
If you have a realistic career expecting a slow grind then great! If you expect to upgrade in 2 years or less that ship almost guaranteed to have sailed already

I wouldn’t be too too sure about that… the reality is you or I don’t know.
Is hiring going to slow down from peak 2023, yeah probably, buts it’s not gonna stop. I think AC is close to the 5400 mark. The numbers floating around are 7000 by end of 2026 and 8000 by 2030. How long is OP planning to stay here? 5 years or 40?
With a new good contract, I could see AC continually making record profits and with some good leadership the airline could continue expanding. Aviation will only become more accessible and affordable in the coming decades, I don’t see anything coming to a screeching halt (unless of course we get a covid 20, in which case we will bounce back again)
OP, if you are young, it doesn’t really matter which path you take

Managers love telling PIT classes high numbers to make themselves feel good about themselves or something. They said to my friend 7000 by the end of 2024 to which I say good luck.

Pre COVID I believe there was around 3600 members, feel free to correct me if I'm a bit off- but regardless, let's stop and ask ourselves what would double the fleet? Is that even possible?

Pros: New Fatigue Rules (minimum 500+ pilots according to Murray), new aircraft orders/options might become growth, a few new routes in the coming years (Nigeria, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Philippines, Vietnam, Western France, etc sourced from leaked travel presentation)

Cons: lost 15 Rouge fins (10 767 cargo coming back), according to CFO the 18 787-10 are replacing 330/777-200LR not growth and the 321XLR some of the overseas flying is replacing Rouge not growth (eg Prague, Budapest, Porto, etc sourced from the leaked travel agency presentation)

Seems a bit extreme for doubling but what do I know. Like you said it is speculation but based on the current evidence it seems a bit extreme maybe there is some new points that will appear to change the formula either way.

[Inverted2]

Plus the economy is starting to slow. Sooner or later bookings and demand will start to drop off. Can only put everything on credit for so long. And those variable rate mortgages...... are coming up for renewal soon.

[Old fella]

Plus the economy is starting to slow. Sooner or later bookings and demand will start to drop off. Can only put everything on credit for so long. And those variable rate mortgages...... are coming up for renewal soon.

True. However from what I see and hear( through associations) travellers will always find the funds to roam about, especially older ones as they have the “ time” but “ time” isn’t always on their side .

PS. This doesn’t really have anything to do with the topic posted on OT at AC because folks like us don’t care and has nothing to do with us. We strive for dependability which of course AC has. But you opened the door Inverted hence my post.

Cheers

[DBC]

I'd be more concerned about your seniority. 5300 pilots with the last 1800 hired after 2021- that means a lot of fresh faced pilots senior to you for the rest of your career. The bottom third of NB captains are already late 20's/ early 30's who will sit there for 20 years before upgrading to WB captains. Now imagine all the young FOs who will eventually join them before you.
If you have a realistic career expecting a slow grind then great! If you expect to upgrade in 2 years or less that ship almost guaranteed to have sailed already

I wouldn’t be too too sure about that… the reality is you or I don’t know.
Is hiring going to slow down from peak 2023, yeah probably, buts it’s not gonna stop. I think AC is close to the 5400 mark. The numbers floating around are 7000 by end of 2026 and 8000 by 2030. How long is OP planning to stay here? 5 years or 40?
With a new good contract, I could see AC continually making record profits and with some good leadership the airline could continue expanding. Aviation will only become more accessible and affordable in the coming decades, I don’t see anything coming to a screeching halt (unless of course we get a covid 20, in which case we will bounce back again)
OP, if you are young, it doesn’t really matter which path you take

Managers love telling PIT classes high numbers to make themselves feel good about themselves or something. They said to my friend 7000 by the end of 2024 to which I say good luck.

Pre COVID I believe there was around 3600 members, feel free to correct me if I'm a bit off- but regardless, let's stop and ask ourselves what would double the fleet? Is that even possible?

Pros: New Fatigue Rules (minimum 500+ pilots according to Murray), new aircraft orders/options might become growth, a few new routes in the coming years (Nigeria, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Philippines, Vietnam, Western France, etc sourced from leaked travel presentation)

Cons: lost 15 Rouge fins (10 767 cargo coming back), according to CFO the 18 787-10 are replacing 330/777-200LR not growth and the 321XLR some of the overseas flying is replacing Rouge not growth (eg Prague, Budapest, Porto, etc sourced from the leaked travel agency presentation)

Seems a bit extreme for doubling but what do I know. Like you said it is speculation but based on the current evidence it seems a bit extreme maybe there is some new points that will appear to change the formula either way.

Last bid in 2019 had 4906 required pilots with 4043 active.

[Inverted2]

Plus the economy is starting to slow. Sooner or later bookings and demand will start to drop off. Can only put everything on credit for so long. And those variable rate mortgages...... are coming up for renewal soon.

True. However from what I see and hear( through associations) travellers will always find the funds to roam about, especially older ones as they have the “ time” but “ time” isn’t always on their side .

PS. This doesn’t really have anything to do with the topic posted on OT at AC because folks like us don’t care and has nothing to do with us. We strive for dependability which of course AC has. But you opened the door Inverted hence my post.

Cheers

No, I understand. I’m just relating passenger demand can affect pilot numbers. A lot of people forget that 2 years ago hundreds of AC pilots were still laid off.