Canadian Survey Plane Accident Albany, NY

[cncpc]

I am curious to know how anybody has been able to eliminate the possibility that the trim was not at full aft setting for takeoff.

It may not be a normal place for it but it could have been moved there for some reason.

As soon as the elevator became effective, the nose would have risen and continued to rise. The aircraft took off and flew over 6000 feet in level flight down the runway without any problems that would have been very evident almost immediately if that were the true scenario.

For that to happen, full nose up trim would have to have been applied in the previous landing. Generally, the Navajo does not require that, as a number of Navajo pilots have stated on here.

Full nose up trim does not cause "barrel rolls".

Would that not be exactly what you'd expect? Plane accelerates, wants to nose up. Pilot holds it down, tries to build up speed to avoid stalling, while wondering what is going on. As the speed increases, the force become too big to handle, plane climbs, noses up, stalls, VMC rolls and crashes?

I think this has been pretty well canvassed on here, but...

She has reached 50 knots on the runway, and the nose rises. Unexpectedly. Most likely she trims, rather than tries to hold it down. Problem solved. If she is still "...wondering what's going on", she pulls the throttles back. She has a mile and a half to roll out.

All of this happened within a vertical area between 200 and 800 feet AGL. This is a VMC roll.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vTQwkKameLg

One VMC roll and its all over. You don't climb back up after a VMC roll, You don't recover from one at 200 feet. That's the height of the last observed barrel roll.You don't recover from one at 800 feet.

[digits_]

I think this has been pretty well canvassed on here, but...

She has reached 50 knots on the runway, and the nose rises. Unexpectedly. Most likely she trims, rather than tries to hold it down. Problem solved. If she is still "...wondering what's going on", she pulls the throttles back. She has a mile and a half to roll out.

That's what's supposed to happen, yes. But planes aren't supposed to crash either. So something did go wrong. I don't think this rules out a trim issue, or a miss trim completely. You might not notice a trim issue at 50kts. Could easily be interpreted as 'oh, looks like I'm a bit nose/tail heavier than expected'. Perhaps the trim was stuck, losing another few seconds while deciding what to do. Perhaps by that time she was airborne and didn't think a landing was possible without an overrun. If, by that time, she was airborne and needed both hands to push the plane down, it's very hard to let go to manipulate other controls, especially if the trim is suck for example.

It's not necessarily the most likely scenario, but there's not enough evidence to rule it out either.

Was the gear still down when she crashed? If the gear was up, it would likely invalidate the above scenario, as it would mean she was able to control the plane with one hand.

All of this happened within a vertical area between 200 and 800 feet AGL. This is a VMC roll.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vTQwkKameLg

One VMC roll and its all over. You don't climb back up after a VMC roll, You don't recover from one at 200 feet. That's the height of the last observed barrel roll.You don't recover from one at 800 feet.

Agreed, and trim issues can lead to stalls/vmc rolls.

[cncpc]

I'm thinking the gear is up from that video, but it's a very short view.

[digits_]

Google showed up this link:

https://www.baaa-acro.com/crash/crash-p ... y-1-killed

The pilot departed runway 19 at Albany International Airport on a ferry flight to Montreal. After takeoff, while climbing, the pilot informed ATC about engine trouble and was able to climb to an altitude of about 800 feet when the airplane entered a left descending turn. It later gained a little altitude then entered an uncontrolled descent and crashed in a residential area, bursting into flames. The airplane was destroyed and the pilot, sole on board, was killed. The airplane was en route to Montreal-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport.

Not sure if there's an official source to confirm that?

[digits_]

Split flaps is another possibility around that altitude, if they were used on take off. If I recall correctly, some navajos had a relatively weird flap system that was a bit prone to split flaps.

[cncpc]

Yes, I vaguely recall that too. Not sure if that was modded out.

https://www.beechtalk.com/forums/viewto ... 8&start=15

Some discussion there. Seems it was the left flap that blew up, or didn't go down. AD by serial numbers, applicable to earlier models. There was also a placarded 25 restriction. I sort of do remember that.

I don't recall use of flaps on takeoff. Or anywhere in her short flight. The problem wasn't uncommanded deployment.

[pelmet]

You guys have no clue and are just desperately grabbing at straws.

[Old fella]

Guess the “ final straw” would be the official NTSB report and won’t see that til a year if not longer. Just saying!

[Squaretail]

You guys have no clue and are just desperately grabbing at straws.

How much navajo time do you have?

Here's a little secret. Ive taken off with a mistrimmed navajo before. A couple of times for that matter, each time because maintenance was fucking with stuff and a weak point in the system is the navajos indicators for trim are electrically driven. They're not super precise either. So i can say with some experience that a mis set trim should be a non event for any pilot worth their salt, and if they were supremely terrible and the pilot couldnt figure it out, the crash would have happened a lot sooner.

Now because the trim indicators are a weak item that ive seen fail at least a dozen times - almost every time they @#$! with the throttle quadrant theyre going to bump those stupid wires - its unwise to @#$! with the trim setting it to full anywhere outside of its initial release from maintenance. Nor does the poh call for a daily check of the full travel of the trim. So if you're messing around with this in some made up walk around procedure, there is no reason for it to be in this position for take off.

Now ive also delivered dual instruction in the navajo, and wrote 702 training syllabuses for the damned thing. In most cases i write procedures to minimize putting the airplane between flights in conditions outside normal flight parameters. To avoid shit like mis trimmed airplanes. I know that in commercial ops, stuff happens, people get in a rush, so keep shit as simple as you can.

I will also say that the Navajo seats and its locking mechanism is pretty robust. Its way better designed than the Cessna seat designs which can be deathtraps without the inertal real. The spar behind you in the navajo prevents a large travel. It only has about 8" from full forward to full aft position. Probably less now that i think about it. Unlike some of the twin Cessnas with a completely flat foor behind you where if you came loose, you'll end up with the bags in the back. Not to msntion that the relatively level attitude of the Navajo climb doesnt give you as much impetus as say a 185's steep slope. So while a seat unlock is possible, it should be unlikely. Pulling on the yoke when you fall backwards would also result in auto rolling nose down to fight you. Lastly, if the seat is going to unlock, the most likely place is on initial application of power. Ask me how i know.

Now having trained pilots in both 702 and terrifyingly in light twins , i have seen lots of pilots engage auto almost immediately after rotation. Ive seen some really high time guys who have experience in 703, 704, and 705 do that when they come back down to GA aircraft. This pilot came back to 702 from Borek, a different kind of operation than 702 survey. If they're following the same path of every other Borek right seater, they found a 702 outfit to get some PIC so they can go back and be captains. So Im going to make a guess and say they had a lot of right seat time, if they did survey for a season prior to this they will have had about 400 hours PIC. Hopefully most of it in the navajo, but possibly split between navajos, KASI on their site has 7 different navajos, both regular and chieftains. Whats the chance they all have the same autopilot model?

[pelmet]

You guys have no clue and are just desperately grabbing at straws.

How much navajo time do you have?

Still say that you guys are just making wildass guesses as to how the trim got to its final position with no evidence to back it up. Just because something happened to you is not a guarantee that it happened in this accident.

If we find out that there was maintenance on the aircraft prior to the flight involving moving the trim, THEN, certain theories may have more credibility.

[Squaretail]

You guys have no clue and are just desperately grabbing at straws.

How much navajo time do you have?

Still say that you guys are just making wildass guesses as to how the trim got to its final position with no evidence to back it up. Just because something happened to you is not a guarantee that it happened in this accident.

No its not, but i have a large enough sample size of experience with a lot of possibilities, to put probabilities on each of them depending on a wide variety of scenarios. Its possible that its something totally different. Yes, i dont know for sure, but assuming the pilot was competent, didnt have some wierd pre flight routine, and the evidence we do have, i think we can discount some of the postulated theories. I think a mis set trim is a low probability. I think the seat issue is a low probability. I think an auto issue is a high probability. The last because there are many issues that can have the result we have seen, while the first two have a very narrow chain of failure to cause the results we have seen.

[pelmet]

How much navajo time do you have?

Still say that you guys are just making wildass guesses as to how the trim got to its final position with no evidence to back it up. Just because something happened to you is not a guarantee that it happened in this accident.

No its not, but i have a large enough sample size of experience with a lot of possibilities, to put probabilities on each of them depending on a wide variety of scenarios. Its possible that its something totally different. Yes, i dont know for sure, but assuming the pilot was competent, didnt have some wierd pre flight routine, and the evidence we do have, i think we can discount some of the postulated theories. I think a mis set trim is a low probability. I think the seat issue is a low probability. I think an auto issue is a high probability. The last because there are many issues that can have the result we have seen, while the first two have a very narrow chain of failure to cause the results we have seen.

Confirmation bias. Doesn’t mean that you won’t turn out to be right, although I wouldn’t be surprised if the Actual Evidence leads to a conclusion that there is not enough evidence to come to a conclusion. It would be entertaining if it turned out that there was no autopilot on board but perhaps most, if not all survey companies like to have autopilots.

[cncpc]

Confirmation bias. Doesn’t mean that you won’t turn out to be right, although I wouldn’t be surprised if the Actual Evidence leads to a conclusion that there is not enough evidence to come to a conclusion. It would be entertaining if it turned out that there was no autopilot on board but perhaps most, if not all survey companies like to have autopilots.

Entertaining? The pilot of this aircraft was one of ourselves. She is dead. Do you think this is entertainment?

Have a look at this photo. Click to enlarge.



Do you see that box with all the black bumpy things on it below the throttle quadrant? That is an autopilot.

I've used an autopilot in light winds to fly a line, which shows up on that screen above the throttles. Set the heading bug and altitude hold,and make minor corrections with the pedals, yaw back to the line. In my time, 2008, you couldn't bank above 9 degrees in the reversal turns as the high wing might blank out some satellites on the horizon, and you'd lose your link with them and have to go back to the airport to initialize. However, most operators serving LIDAR customers are on tight schedules as the gear is usually rented, and they have to more from place to placed to reposition in all weather. It's single pilot IFR, hence the autopilot. Do they like them? I don't know. They need them.

[cncpc]

Here's another photo that gives some insights.



Squaretail, is there anything you see that might assist this discussion?

[rookiepilot]

Confirmation bias. Doesn’t mean that you won’t turn out to be right, although I wouldn’t be surprised if the Actual Evidence leads to a conclusion that there is not enough evidence to come to a conclusion. It would be entertaining if it turned out that there was no autopilot on board but perhaps most, if not all survey companies like to have autopilots.

Entertaining? The pilot of this aircraft was one of ourselves. She is dead. Do you think this is entertainment?

[I WAS Pez]

Confirmation bias. Doesn’t mean that you won’t turn out to be right, although I wouldn’t be surprised if the Actual Evidence leads to a conclusion that there is not enough evidence to come to a conclusion. It would be entertaining if it turned out that there was no autopilot on board but perhaps most, if not all survey companies like to have autopilots.

Entertaining? The pilot of this aircraft was one of ourselves. She is dead. Do you think this is entertainment?

Have a look at this photo. Click to enlarge.



Do you see that box with all the black bumpy things on it below the throttle quadrant? That is an autopilot.

I've used an autopilot in light winds to fly a line, which shows up on that screen above the throttles. Set the heading bug and altitude hold,and make minor corrections with the pedals, yaw back to the line. In my time, 2008, you couldn't bank above 9 degrees in the reversal turns as the high wing might blank out some satellites on the horizon, and you'd lose your link with them and have to go back to the airport to initialize. However, most operators serving LIDAR customers are on tight schedules as the gear is usually rented, and they have to more from place to placed to reposition in all weather. It's single pilot IFR, hence the autopilot. Do they like them? I don't know. They need them.

Agreed on first point.

On AP use and survey... In my experience these days, bank limitation off line is 20 deg, and usually 5 deg on line. Usually no AP used on line, as it's a fairly narrow box to remain in, and wings level. From what I've seen, many survey planes (but not all) do have APs, but they're pretty much all very old, very analog models (like the one pictured), which aren't usually particularly reliable, and are getting harder to support. Like all old APs in light airplanes, they do periodically have a go at killing you.

Both AP and standalone electric trim seem to me to be likely culprits for the trim being found where it was. Hopefully NTSB will be able to determine with a higher degree of certainty. Worth noting it could as easily have been a bad elec trim switch... she trims a touch after takeoff, and it keeps running.... Really sh*tty accident, but a good reminder about the importance of trim and knowing how to disconnect/shut off elec trim systems or APs if they're not doing what you want.

[pelmet]

Confirmation bias. Doesn’t mean that you won’t turn out to be right, although I wouldn’t be surprised if the Actual Evidence leads to a conclusion that there is not enough evidence to come to a conclusion. It would be entertaining if it turned out that there was no autopilot on board but perhaps most, if not all survey companies like to have autopilots.

Entertaining? The pilot of this aircraft was one of ourselves. She is dead. Do you think this is entertainment?

Stupid response. Stop the fake emotional attack when I suggest you are speculating with no evidence.

[Squaretail]

Here's another photo that gives some insights.



Squaretail, is there anything you see that might assist this discussion?

By the photo it looks like that aircraft had the panther mod, which among other things, has vgs which make its low speed handling better. If one did have an engine out, the bigger engines make this navajo the best one to have it in. It also makes the plane's stall very definite. The navajo shakes like a wet cat when it stalls and is unmistakeable. Though one could assume its an engine failure if you have never seen it before.

In regards to 702 ops, its possible to have no autopilot, if they remain vfr. This crimps some operations though, so is kind of silly. Regardless of whether their OC is IFR, lots of survey is procedurely IFR, at least the navcan controllers treat you that way, so unless the survey is low level stuff, the pilots should be trained IFR competent. Im not sure of how KASI' s operation is set up. But the other purpose of having a Panther is being able to do higher altitude work, so it seems likely the pilot and plane were - or at least normally should have been capable. The pictures provided show what i believe is the old autopilot that came with the aircraft, which i think was standard on navajos, though i could be wrong.

Whether you fly lines with auto depends on operational need. For example if you got to be slow with flap out for lidar, most autos wont be able to handle this configuration and start to porpoise. Lots of times the turns will be hand flown to minimize the end turn time. Long lines are really nice to have auto. For those who havent done survey, think of flying a 100 mile ILS. If the company is doing the latter, having auto is a must. That is to say if you're really interested in the bottom line.

So while its possible KASI doesnt have autopilots in their airplanes ( at least functional ones) assuming the fleet size is an indicator of their not being a fly by night outfit, its a reasonable assumption the accident aircraft was at least equipped.

So here's a bit of speculation on my part, take it for what its worth. If maybe you're looking to not have this happen to you. Here's a list of swiss cheese holes.

a) different but similar equipment types - training.
b) stall recognition - training/pilot skill
c) snag recording - operational culture
d) preflight/between flight procedures - training/ operational culture
e) use of automation -training/ pilot skill

Now from the above a few of those may have lined up. Maybe not. What do i know.

[cncpc]

You know a whole lot bud.

Blow that photo up. Have a look at the seat back.

[cncpc]

I don't know if this happens to anybody else here, but when I make a reply or reply in a quote, and hit Submit, it says I have to log in to do that. I'm already logged in. My reply disappears and can't be found.

What the...? Is it time to go exclusively to PPRune?

There is some fairly key new info.

[Squaretail]

You know a whole lot bud.

Blow that photo up. Have a look at the seat back.

I never noticed that before, i didnt zoom in. However, the seat backs in the navajo pilot seats do not recline. If i was to guess, though is too hard to tell from the photo, thats a seat sitting in there not installed. Hence the angle that the back appears, its how it would look to me if you were about to try to get it on the rails. Maybe its just me but the seats in the navajo were pretty over engineered. Its one thing imho piper has done better than Cessna for the most part. Removing the seats is common for the navajo maintenance, if you need to do anything in the panel they got to come out. They just normally dont give you a lot of room or travel to work around them. Now its possible that a navajo with the pilot door seat does that with a certain mod, but i cant see why it would need to. The whole point of the pilot door is so you can stuff the rest of it full , there is no reason to need to load through the pilot door, hence no reason tobhave the extra fail point of a seat that folds backwards.

Was that what you were looking for?

[Squaretail]

I don't know if this happens to anybody else here, but when I make a reply or reply in a quote, and hit Submit, it says I have to log in to do that. I'm already logged in. My reply disappears and can't be found.

What the...? Is it time to go exclusively to PPRune?

There is some fairly key new info.

Avcan kicks you out if you take too long to post, unless you click that box that says keep me logged in when you log in. Avcan is terrible on mobile devices.

[cncpc]

You know a whole lot bud.

Blow that photo up. Have a look at the seat back.

I never noticed that before, i didnt zoom in. However, the seat backs in the navajo pilot seats do not recline. If i was to guess, though is too hard to tell from the photo, thats a seat sitting in there not installed. Hence the angle that the back appears, its how it would look to me if you were about to try to get it on the rails. Maybe its just me but the seats in the navajo were pretty over engineered. Its one thing imho piper has done better than Cessna for the most part. Removing the seats is common for the navajo maintenance, if you need to do anything in the panel they got to come out. They just normally dont give you a lot of room or travel to work around them. Now its possible that a navajo with the pilot door seat does that with a certain mod, but i cant see why it would need to. The whole point of the pilot door is so you can stuff the rest of it full , there is no reason to need to load through the pilot door, hence no reason tobhave the extra fail point of a seat that folds backwards.

Was that what you were looking for?

If the seat was upright, ST, it probably interferes with your butt descending into the seat. I can see the seat back cog and bar system in the photo of natalie, right behind the swivel nut for the right armrest. So, getting out, seat goes back. Get in, maybe stepping on it, then bring it back up. Every flight.

The airplane was in perfectly normal flight until 400 feet, then it did absurd things.

[rookiepilot]

You know a whole lot bud.

Blow that photo up. Have a look at the seat back.

I never noticed that before, i didnt zoom in. However, the seat backs in the navajo pilot seats do not recline. If i was to guess, though is too hard to tell from the photo, thats a seat sitting in there not installed. Hence the angle that the back appears, its how it would look to me if you were about to try to get it on the rails. Maybe its just me but the seats in the navajo were pretty over engineered. Its one thing imho piper has done better than Cessna for the most part. Removing the seats is common for the navajo maintenance, if you need to do anything in the panel they got to come out. They just normally dont give you a lot of room or travel to work around them. Now its possible that a navajo with the pilot door seat does that with a certain mod, but i cant see why it would need to. The whole point of the pilot door is so you can stuff the rest of it full , there is no reason to need to load through the pilot door, hence no reason tobhave the extra fail point of a seat that folds backwards.

Was that what you were looking for?

If the seat was upright, ST, it probably interferes with your butt descending into the seat. I can see the seat back cog and bar system in the photo of natalie, right behind the swivel nut for the right armrest. So, getting out, seat goes back. Get in, maybe stepping on it, then bring it back up. Every flight.

The airplane was in perfectly normal flight until 400 feet, then it did absurd things.

Autopilot malfunction seems most suspicious outcome to me. So sad in any respect.

[cncpc]

I never noticed that before, i didnt zoom in. However, the seat backs in the navajo pilot seats do not recline. If i was to guess, though is too hard to tell from the photo, thats a seat sitting in there not installed. Hence the angle that the back appears, its how it would look to me if you were about to try to get it on the rails. Maybe its just me but the seats in the navajo were pretty over engineered. Its one thing imho piper has done better than Cessna for the most part. Removing the seats is common for the navajo maintenance, if you need to do anything in the panel they got to come out. They just normally dont give you a lot of room or travel to work around them. Now its possible that a navajo with the pilot door seat does that with a certain mod, but i cant see why it would need to. The whole point of the pilot door is so you can stuff the rest of it full , there is no reason to need to load through the pilot door, hence no reason tobhave the extra fail point of a seat that folds backwards.

Was that what you were looking for?

If the seat was upright, ST, it probably interferes with your butt descending into the seat. I can see the seat back cog and bar system in the photo of natalie, right behind the swivel nut for the right armrest. So, getting out, seat goes back. Get in, maybe stepping on it, then bring it back up. Every flight.

The airplane was in perfectly normal flight until 400 feet, then it did absurd things.

Autopilot malfunction seems most suspicious outcome to me. So sad in any respect.EE

Very unlikely this was the autopilot. You can turn a malfunctioning autopilot off.
Explaining the full nose up trim will likely take the NTSB.