Canadian Survey Plane Accident Albany, NY

[Squaretail]

I can accept that a seat malfunction, or mishandling may contribute, but if it did we should have seen auto roll the wheel to full nose down if she didnt let go of the yoke.

The auto doesnt need to malfunction to get a bad aircraft state, and yes it can be turned off, you would be surprised at how many pilots Ive seen not do that until it gets scary.

I'll agree to disagree.

[pelmet]

If the seat was upright, ST, it probably interferes with your butt descending into the seat. I can see the seat back cog and bar system in the photo of natalie, right behind the swivel nut for the right armrest. So, getting out, seat goes back. Get in, maybe stepping on it, then bring it back up. Every flight.

The airplane was in perfectly normal flight until 400 feet, then it did absurd things.

Autopilot malfunction seems most suspicious outcome to me. So sad in any respect.EE

Very unlikely this was the autopilot. You can turn a malfunctioning autopilot off.
Explaining the full nose up trim will likely take the NTSB.

Did someone(me) mention wildass guesses based on nothing(only to be accused of openly mocking a death - in a now deleted post)?

[rookiepilot]

The airplane was in perfectly normal flight until 400 feet, then it did absurd things.

Guess this makes me suspect a wonky AP…….will find out in time. Thinking, How did the full nose up trim get there, after a normal climb to 400 feet?

[Dias]

There is also the human factors. In an emergency situation a human can have a panic response that will cause them to take their hands off the controls. I've seen this personally in training of Air Cadets. The person basically freezes up.

[CpnCrunch]

There is also the human factors. In an emergency situation a human can have a panic response that will cause them to take their hands off the controls. I've seen this personally in training of Air Cadets. The person basically freezes up.

Ok, now we are straying into inappropriate speculation. There's a big difference between someone who has never flown before or had a handful of training flights, and a commercial pilot.

[FishermanIvan]

and frankly lack of muscle… .

Definitely not an issue with Nat, she was Fucking STRONG. She made a living hauling packs around the Arctic before she got into flying and always carried the heavier stuff when we went camping together.

No way she couldn’t outmuscle a Navajo.

[FishermanIvan]

There is also the human factors. In an emergency situation a human can have a panic response that will cause them to take their hands off the controls. I've seen this personally in training of Air Cadets. The person basically freezes up.

GTFO here with this shit. I knew her as well as anyone ever could, and she never panicked about ANYTHING.

No way.

[cncpc]

and frankly lack of muscle… .

Definitely not an issue with Nat, she was Fucking STRONG. She made a living hauling packs around the Arctic before she got into flying and always carried the heavier stuff when we went camping together.

No way she couldn’t outmuscle a Navajo.

Ivan, great credit to you for standing up for a pilot who can't defend herself.

I'm looking at that photo of her in the cockpit. She seems to have that seat as far forward as it will go. Was she a small woman?

[cncpc]

I've been having a close look at the ADSB data. As I have said a few posts back, there was nothing wrong with the aircraft on the roll, at rotation at 100 kts., and in a 640 fpm climb to 400 feet. Textbook. Something happened then.

Here are three key profile shots with the critical info shown. Double click to enlarge.








It is seven seconds from the first, normal, hit, and the second at the bottom of the dive.

[cncpc]

This is the 310 my friend did the metallurgy on.
https://smartpilot.ca/49-maintenance/m ... at-failure

[cncpc]

Squaretail, I blew this up for you and added the slope line. I think this seat has been modded to get it out of the way for entry through the pilot door. I don't think it was shot in the middle of maintenance. It's parked on a ramp, not in a hangar. The airstair isn't down.

[Squaretail]

Squaretail, I blew this up for you and added the slope line. I think this seat has been modded to get it out of the way for entry through the pilot door. I don't think it was shot in the middle of maintenance. It's parked on a ramp, not in a hangar. The airstair isn't down.

I saw what you are talking about. A seat back malfunction doesnt explain the trim though. I have had two seat breaks in my career, that werent just it reclining more, but the entire seat back coming off. If the airplane is trimmed in flight its a nasty surprise, but you can fly through that if you keep your wits about you. If it happens on the roll its way more disasterous. But the airplane clibed normally. If it was a seat back malfunction for a reasonably skilled pilot, you just let go of the yoke, if its trimmed, the airplane just flies itself. If this was a 100 200 or 400 series Cessna, i would consider the seat fail more. Im not sure why the airplane in the photo looks like it does. Even with the pilot door mod i dont think you need to recline the seat to get in. Slide it back on its rails yes. If you can find a picture of a modded seat in detail, maybe one could find a reason for a more specific malfunction.

I will say that both my seat back failure also happened in privately owned aircraft where the owner knew about the problem and failed to disclose it. Words were said. But a Commercially registered aircraft? This is something that seems would have an AWD like the navajo baggage door associated with it, which i havent come across for the PA-31, but may be out there. If it wasnt a failure, then the pilot somehow mishandled it. Seat backs, unlike seat rail slides are a bit harder to set so its just balanced right. Again, this should have manifested in the initial roll rather than at 400'.

Edit: a check of KSY's awd list reveals none that have do with the seat. However, there is one for the aspen which one would assume is integrated into the AP.

[Squaretail]

and frankly lack of muscle… .

No way she couldn’t outmuscle a Navajo.

No one can handle the airplane at full trim forever and have a hand free. I dont care how big or strong you think you are. Go try it next time you're flying, trim it full and see how long you can keep it level. Now try to take a hand off the yoke.

Edit: make sure you got lots of altitude when you do this. So we dont read about you too.

[FishermanIvan]

and frankly lack of muscle… .

Definitely not an issue with Nat, she was Fucking STRONG. She made a living hauling packs around the Arctic before she got into flying and always carried the heavier stuff when we went camping together.

No way she couldn’t outmuscle a Navajo.

Ivan, great credit to you for standing up for a pilot who can't defend herself.

I'm looking at that photo of her in the cockpit. She seems to have that seat as far forward as it will go. Was she a small woman?

No. She was maybe 2 inches shorter than I am, and I’m 5’11”

[cncpc]

Squaretail, I blew this up for you and added the slope line. I think this seat has been modded to get it out of the way for entry through the pilot door. I don't think it was shot in the middle of maintenance. It's parked on a ramp, not in a hangar. The airstair isn't down.

I saw what you are talking about. A seat back malfunction doesnt explain the trim though. I have had two seat breaks in my career, that werent just it reclining more, but the entire seat back coming off. If the airplane is trimmed in flight its a nasty surprise, but you can fly through that if you keep your wits about you. If it happens on the roll its way more disasterous. But the airplane clibed normally. If it was a seat back malfunction for a reasonably skilled pilot, you just let go of the yoke, if its trimmed, the airplane just flies itself. If this was a 100 200 or 400 series Cessna, i would consider the seat fail more. Im not sure why the airplane in the photo looks like it does. Even with the pilot door mod i dont think you need to recline the seat to get in. Slide it back on its rails yes. If you can find a picture of a modded seat in detail, maybe one could find a reason for a more specific malfunction.

I will say that both my seat back failure also happened in privately owned aircraft where the owner knew about the problem and failed to disclose it. Words were said. But a Commercially registered aircraft? This is something that seems would have an AWD like the navajo baggage door associated with it, which i havent come across for the PA-31, but may be out there. If it wasn't a failure, then the pilot somehow mishandled it. Seat backs, unlike seat rail slides are a bit harder to set so its just balanced right. Again, this should have manifested in the initial roll rather than at 400'.

Edit: a check of KSY's awd list reveals none that have do with the seat. However, there is one for the aspen which one would assume is integrated into the AP.

With the addition of this new information from the ADSB, the seat is still in the mix. But now, so is trim runaway, and autopilot. It should be said that no one should mistake the lines on those graphs as representing a representation of the aircraft's vertical path. They are graphed metrics for altitude and airspeed. There is no evidence that the aircraft stalled. It certainly isn't in the video. It's doing 97 knots. It seems to be absolute evidence that there was not full nose up trim at that point. If there was, the aircraft is basically at the same speed it would be at on approach. The nose would be pitching up.

The aircraft seems to be in one piece, but has gone through some significant short term rates of climb and descent, but in a quite small vertical envelope, between 200 feet and 800 feet. It looks to be easily flyable and saveable if someone was at the controls in the video.

It is more likely that someone might turn on the autopilot at 400 feet than at 200 feet, but there is no evidence that the autopilot even works, and that if it did, that it was turned on. What mode would be set?

If full nose up trim was input, it almost had to be taking place in those last seconds we see in the video. And that did not move the nose up.

It is possible that cable stretch wound the actuator to full nose up in the crash sequence. The NTSB preliminary does mention significant cable breakages, but not for the trim. And, one of the cables, the nose down cable, has to be broken before cable stretch would account for nose up.

Whatever it was, it happened just before or after 400 feet, and Natalie would have been in the normal pilot position when it did. She would have intended to go to and pass through 800 feet. How come that happened in 7 seconds? Could it even have happened if the seat back gave way?

[cncpc]

Definitely not an issue with Nat, she was Fucking STRONG. She made a living hauling packs around the Arctic before she got into flying and always carried the heavier stuff when we went camping together.

No way she couldn’t outmuscle a Navajo.

Ivan, great credit to you for standing up for a pilot who can't defend herself.

I'm looking at that photo of her in the cockpit. She seems to have that seat as far forward as it will go. Was she a small woman?

No. She was maybe 2 inches shorter than I am, and I’m 5’11”

She looks small in that photo. Did you fly with her?

[FishermanIvan]

Ivan, great credit to you for standing up for a pilot who can't defend herself.

I'm looking at that photo of her in the cockpit. She seems to have that seat as far forward as it will go. Was she a small woman?

No. She was maybe 2 inches shorter than I am, and I’m 5’11”

She looks small in that photo. Did you fly with her?

I dated her.

We flew together a few times when she was working on her IFR.

[cncpc]

I can accept that a seat malfunction, or mishandling may contribute, but if it did we should have seen auto roll the wheel to full nose down if she didnt let go of the yoke.

The auto doesnt need to malfunction to get a bad aircraft state, and yes it can be turned off, you would be surprised at how many pilots Ive seen not do that until it gets scary.

I'll agree to disagree.

You presume the autopilot was on. Maybe a 777 in the clag, but a Ho on clear day?

[CaptDukeNukem]

and frankly lack of muscle… .

Definitely not an issue with Nat, she was Fucking STRONG. She made a living hauling packs around the Arctic before she got into flying and always carried the heavier stuff when we went camping together.

No way she couldn’t outmuscle a Navajo.

Didn’t say SHE couldn’t. I’m saying many of us would lose strength. Just cuz you were “dating”, you don’t need to be insulted by us commenting on what we think it is.

I think it’s mistrimmed. You try fighting a startle factor or helmet fire with 100+ lbs of force for extended lengths of time with no one beside you to snap you back into frame of mind. Lemme know how it goes. I shall reserve further comments on this discussion.

[Squaretail]

You presume the autopilot was on. Maybe a 777 in the clag, but a Ho on clear day?

The other option would be then that the pilot rolled the trim in. That would indicate supreme incompetence. There exists fhe possibility the pilot had a lapse in attention, stalled the airplane, didnt recognize the stall, tried rolling in all the trim in a futile attempt to keep pulling up to avoid the inevitable if they didnt know what was going on. In the video the aircraft is clearly stalled.

At this moment though im going to give them the benefit of the doubt and imagine they were either fighting a malfunctioning autopilot, a faulty electric trim, or some combination with possible error... errors which are easy to make. Hell, who hasnt hit the wrong button on the panel with an inconvinient bump of turb? Knowing now that the aircraft was equipped with an aspen display, i personally hate those things with random errors. Imagine if you were flying on auto and that kicked off on you - had this happen not long ago at altitude - you better be quick if you're not going to lose a couple hundred feet.

And why would you use auto on a clear day? I dont know, though i see people do it all the time. From what i know, she has spent more time in airplanes bigger than the navajo than smaller. Maybe that's something she picked up from a captain at Borek. Who knows, but i bet if we took a random sampling of pilots with 70x experience we'll get a few who fly auto 99% of the flight... and thats not wrong in lots of cases. Doing a lot of survey hops in a day can be tiring, so i get it.

[Old fella]

No. She was maybe 2 inches shorter than I am, and I’m 5’11”

She looks small in that photo. Did you fly with her?

I dated her.

We flew together a few times when she was working on her IFR.

So very sorry for your loss. Certainly appears you were in the company of an extraordinary young lady.

[FishermanIvan]

She looks small in that photo. Did you fly with her?

I dated her.

We flew together a few times when she was working on her IFR.

So very sorry for your loss. Certainly appears you were in the company of an extraordinary young lady.

Well beyond anything I ever deserved. Not enough space on this page to describe how incredible she was.

[airway]

The preliminary report is out:

Albany PA-31 accident.pdf

(718.67 KiB) Downloaded 113 times

Looks like either a nose up trim runaway or she took off with the trim in the full nose up position for some reason.

I remember a Metroliner pilot telling me about a similar situation he had. Trim runaway full nose up right after take off. At least one of the pilots had to put their feet on the control column and push to prevent the airplane from going vertical. Knowing they couldn't fly the plane like that, they started experimenting by pulling the power back. When they got the throttles about half way back the airplane became somewhat controllable and they landed ASAP.





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[airway]

ooops, that came out 3 months ago