What's up with AC?

[DanWEC]

According to AC, they're adding 80 tails in the next 5 years. Is that just posturing or incuding options on top of firm orders? I don't know how the demand is there for an almost 40% increase, but I'm not an analyst.

[Dias]

It was 25% growth over 20 years until the smart high paid people got rid of almost of that for some reason. Because of a virus with 99.98% survival rate I imagine.

[CaptDukeNukem]

Fleet by year.

2006 199
2007 207
2008 200
2009 202
2010 205
2011 205
2012 205
2013 193
2014 200
2015 210
2016 213
2017 224
2018 237
2019 252
2020 208
2021 214
2022 231

2024 211
2025 228

Not really growing. 10% over 20 years. Data 2006-2022 from annual reports.

The arrow points generally up I guess. What I’m really curious about is how the regional market connects to their mainline.

[goingnowherefast]

There's a definite change in trajectory in 2015. Pretty stagnant at ~200 fins until then. Sure there's a bump in 2020, but that applies to every airline. The other question is seat count. The 195s that disappeared in 2020 were sorta replaced by A220, meaning more seats. More capacity means more growth in the airline despite the fin count not changing as dramatically. Important too, is those pilots are more productive, pay rates are higher (although still way too low).

Sure they might be adding 80 planes, but I'm sure they're retiring some too. There's some really old A320s around, the 777s are about as old as the dinosaurs they're burning. If they're adding 80 new planes, some will be growth, some will be replacements.

[TheStig]

Fleet by year.

2006 199
2007 207
2008 200
2009 202
2010 205
2011 205
2012 205
2013 193
2014 200
2015 210
2016 213
2017 224
2018 237
2019 252
2020 208
2021 214
2022 231

2024 211
2025 228

Not really growing. 10% over 20 years. Data 2006-2022 from annual reports.

Not sure why you wouldn't include the 40 tails at rouge?

2023 243
2024 251
2025 268

The 2025 planned fleet shows 1 787-10 and 3 A321XLR deliveries.18 787-10's and 30 A321XLR's are on order. I'm not sure why anyone would think the 777's are leaving anytime soon? The original aircraft are all owned, burn 7 tons an hour and carry 400 people, their replacement isn't in service and are listed for $350 million a piece. The first 8 A330's are older than the 777's and closer in range and capacity to the 787-10. The A220's are a logical replacement for the A319's once the engine issues are resolved. The XLR order is to fill the gap in the fleet left when the 767 was retired. Older A320's will be retired, although the airline seems to have a very liberal idea of what 'older' is than we do.

The airline will have a huge amount of potential capacity in the coming years and the flexibility to retire aircraft should the market dictate. What's important for everyone to remember is that the next pilot contract will not impact the airlines growth plans either way. The sky isn't falling, nor is the fleet going to double in the next decade. We need to ensure that every pilot is properly compensated with a contract that recognises the value and experience they bring regardless of the fleet projections.

[fish4life]

2 big factors to consider is roughly 1/2 our list has been hired in the last 10 years and in general are younger pilots so you can’t look at the trajectory of a pilot hired 5 years ago and expect the same for someone hired tomorrow.

Next factor is the economy, it’s no secret Canada is in a tight spot right now and interest rate cuts in Canada that move quicker than the US will hurt our loonie. This will make every transaction AC does cost more money because pretty much everything from fuel to aircraft and ground equipment are bought in USD. On top of that Canada can’t try save the mortgage market by slashing interest rates because they aren’t only based on the Canadian dollar, if the US doesn’t drop rates much then mortgages won’t drop nearly as much as the Bank of Canada is adjusting.

[cjp]

ALPAs job, and thus flight crew need not burden themselves with economy excuses to give management an out. ALPAs job is to build the best contract possible regardless of short term economy.

Air Canada will grow, and yes short term financial strain is apart of the game, but at NO point should flight crew make the excuse, "Well economy is down, better hack off 20% to keep the flying", because when times are good, that 20% ain't magically coming back.

Put it on the management to reconsider if they are going to take a bonus because the pilots are finally paid their appropriate value, and not the inverse.

Guaranteed the economists at AC have factored for a worst case, and the growth model is good with pilots well paid AND short term market shocks factored.

[Dockjock]

TheStig the reason I didn’t include rouge was because I was lazy, and only used data I collected myself 2006-2022. Which I cited. And then I took JoeyBarton at his word with the 2024 and 2025 numbers.

Regardless, I think it’s useful to look in hindsight at the trend and note that OBVIOUSLY the main factor influencing fleet growth is the economy. Oh wow, the fleet was stagnant for 5 years post GFC and during the pension crisis. Then it grew as the economy boomed. We signed the 10-yr framework and there is a strong argument for us having been sandbagged big time vis a vis growth benchmarks since they hadn’t added a single fin in 5 years prior.

Then the economy boomed until Covid, shrunk, and now it’s recovered and growth has resumed. What the pilots make or don’t make has had almost no bearing on any of it. Our country’s population in 2006 was 32M, it is now 42M, and the flag carrier has added a few dozen fins.

We are exceptionally pennywise, and have grown (annualized) the fleet at around 1.5%PA. Aside from blips here and there or a drastic change in strategy I hesitate to see how that will change or why we would expect it to.

In the meantime, we need to make sure the jobs we do have are appropriately paid.