phenix wrote: ↑Sat Oct 12, 2024 8:04 am
Is it though? Or is it a no brainer only for those who want to fly WB? Or more exactly, those who want to fly WB as Captains?
Let's ask the numbers
Paul and Jen are hired today, Paul at AC, Jen at WJ.
Paul upgrades on the 737 after completing 2 years as an FO, Jen upgrades on the 737 after completing 9 years as an FO.
They work for 25 years, what is going to be the difference in their total income? 16%.
I used October 2024 numbers, that should be at the advantage at AC. And an upgrade 737 after 2 years for someone hired today sounds optimistic as well. 16% is not nothing, but it is not the abysmal difference that some think it is.
I will not be arguing about "yes but this scenario or that scenario and what if Paul becomes 777 Captain after 6 months and he flies only at night until his death". The finest pilots of North America are probably able to use excel.
The problem with these sorts of planning scenarios is that the possible futures rapidly outnumber anything that a person can imagine. What if Gerry goes crazy and sells off to some 3rd rate group who mismanages the company into the ground? What if the feds open the boarder with the US and Southwest moves in and beats Westjet into oblivion, what if the feds open the border to the world and Emirates comes in and takes 90% of AC's international market, what if there's another global financial crash, what if there's a war?
What if something happens tomorrow or what if it happens in 10 years? It's impossible to predict with any certainty at all what will happen and which company might be the better choice - you won't know until you retire and, of course, by then it's too late.
From a purely QoL POV a person with a young family might want to maximize time at home and the ability to control their schedule - sacrifice earnings to get this. Sounds good until you realize you didn't have the financial resources to save for their kids education and don't have it now to pay-as-you-go. The other choice would be to go to the place that gets an upgrade ASAP - sacrifice some ability to control schedule but earn more.
Taking your scenario imagine some crisis or industry meltdown in 10 years; by that time Jen has 1 year of earnings as a Capt and Paul has had 8 so who's ahead? Of course maybe nothing happens or maybe something happens that only negatively affects AC in which case Jen pulls ahead.
The point is that you can't just take a snapshot of the present and extend it into the future expecting a linear pregression to get there. This doesn't even account for the possibilty that one group out negotiates the other or what possible fleet changes might happen. In 30 years the 737 is long gone - what replaces it and which company moves ahead?
Personally I'd take AC over Westjet in almost every scenario. The extra flexibility of a fleet with more types, more base choices, it being a larger company that's publically traded and the current faster upgrades win out over QoL. Let's be honest the most important kind of QoL is a bigger paycheque.
One other thing I can tell you is that after 20 years of NB flying virtually everyone comes to the same conclusion; they want to try out the WB. And, when they do, they all say exactly the same thing - why did I wait so long to do this? Even if the pay was exactly the same another layover in Edmonton vs a layover in London? Come on, be serious.