It's Time

[evilgravy]

Lynx was entirely controlled from a head office a few miles west of where I am, and let’s just say that it’s a place that sees very little rain and has never seen a snowflake other than occasionally on the peak of an iconic nearby hiking trail.

Every decision of consequence, be it the decision to hire a CEO who hadn’t a clue and had already run one airline into the ground, and her subsequent decisions, be it to use Australian based crew planners rather than long experienced Canadian ones who understood the practicalities of operating in the Canadian market, or route planners that wouldn’t be able to find Kelowna on a map and countless other idiotic decisions can all be traced back to the outfit that was calling all the shots.

The outfit calling the shots - you mean the BOD, including "checked-out" TM?

All of those decisions you mention had board approval, or were made by the board. what's your point? You can pin this on MM all you want while you ride off on DN's coattails counting your cash, but please don't absolve TM of any fault with Y9's failure.

Anyway, back to the PD stats...

[Realitychex]

You'd be tremendously naive to believe anyone but the folks on Camelback Road controlled every decision of any significance when it came to all things Lynx.

Same with Florida controlling everything at Flair, though that is changing. You will note Flair's current CFO lives in a suburb of Atlanta.....

It wouldn't be the first time a BoD was utterly dominated by one personality. I can definitely think of a couple other aviation related examples in Canada, (both private and public), over the past 30 years.

He who has the gold makes the rules.

[Mac08]

Lynx was entirely controlled from a head office a few miles west of where I am, and let’s just say that it’s a place that sees very little rain and has never seen a snowflake other than occasionally on the peak of an iconic nearby hiking trail.

Every decision of consequence, be it the decision to hire a CEO who hadn’t a clue and had already run one airline into the ground, and her subsequent decisions, be it to use Australian based crew planners rather than long experienced Canadian ones who understood the practicalities of operating in the Canadian market, or route planners that wouldn’t be able to find Kelowna on a map and countless other idiotic decisions can all be traced back to the outfit that was calling all the shots.

The outfit calling the shots - you mean the BOD, including "checked-out" TM?

All of those decisions you mention had board approval, or were made by the board. what's your point? You can pin this on MM all you want while you ride off on DN's coattails counting your cash, but please don't absolve TM of any fault with Y9's failure.

Anyway, back to the PD stats...

It's hilarious how hurt his ego is getting

Don't worry guys, Porter is shutting'er down any day now...

[evilgravy]

You'd be tremendously naive to believe anyone but the folks on Camelback Road controlled every decision of any significance when it came to all things Lynx.

Same with Florida controlling everything at Flair, though that is changing. You will note Flair's current CFO lives in a suburb of Atlanta.....

It wouldn't be the first time a BoD was utterly dominated by one personality. I can definitely think of a couple other aviation related examples in Canada, (both private and public), over the past 30 years.

He who has the gold makes the rules.

exactly - so why are you blaming the failure of Lynx on Merren exactly? You keep talking in circles and not really answering questions.

[Realitychex]

Lynx was entirely controlled from a head office a few miles west of where I am, and let’s just say that it’s a place that sees very little rain and has never seen a snowflake other than occasionally on the peak of an iconic nearby hiking trail.

Every decision of consequence, be it the decision to hire a CEO who hadn’t a clue and had already run one airline into the ground, and her subsequent decisions, be it to use Australian based crew planners rather than long experienced Canadian ones who understood the practicalities of operating in the Canadian market, or route planners that wouldn’t be able to find Kelowna on a map and countless other idiotic decisions can all be traced back to the outfit that was calling all the shots.

The outfit calling the shots - you mean the BOD, including "checked-out" TM?

All of those decisions you mention had board approval, or were made by the board. what's your point? You can pin this on MM all you want while you ride off on DN's coattails counting your cash, but please don't absolve TM of any fault with Y9's failure.

Anyway, back to the PD stats...

It's hilarious how hurt his ego is getting

Don't worry guys, Porter is shutting'er down any day now...

And what data can you proffer that would suggest Porter's E2 operation is sustainable on a P&L basis?

I've yet to see anything,and there's a ton of evidence to the contrary, but I'm ready and willing able to incorporate any verifiable data that would suggest the current operating can continue in perpetuity into my assessment.

Belly up to the bar with the goods, folks. Otherwise, it's just noise.

[Mac08]

The outfit calling the shots - you mean the BOD, including "checked-out" TM?

All of those decisions you mention had board approval, or were made by the board. what's your point? You can pin this on MM all you want while you ride off on DN's coattails counting your cash, but please don't absolve TM of any fault with Y9's failure.

Anyway, back to the PD stats...

It's hilarious how hurt his ego is getting

Don't worry guys, Porter is shutting'er down any day now...

And what data can you proffer that would suggest Porter's E2 operation is sustainable on a P&L basis?

I've yet to see anything,and there's a ton of evidence to the contrary, but I'm ready and willing able to incorporate any verifiable data that would suggest the current operating can continue in perpetuity into my assessment.

Belly up to the bar with the goods, folks. Otherwise, it's just noise.

So you've brought the goods and yet Porter is still around after your failed prediction 15+ years ago, why should anyone believe you? Looks like your daily posts are just "noise".

[Realitychex]

exactly - so why are you blaming the failure of Lynx on Merren exactly? You keep talking in circles and not really answering questions.
[/quote]

Merren made a number of very ill advised tactical decisions, with ultimately the full support and approval of the BoD.

There's no point detailing them; the events of 26 Feb are evidence enough. Most are aware that other than the name, (Lynx), I didn't think much of the concept from day it became obvious what the plan was.

It was the same MO as her tenure at Tiger Air Australia. She's up there with Mike the White when it comes to being a CEO of failed airlines, though by most accounts, she's no dummy. She was in way over head as an airline CEO though; perhaps another example of misguided DEI thinking.

Reading comprehension is not one of the skills often on display here; but there certainly is more than enough "hindsight is 20/20".

Hands up all those folks in 2006 who knew that Porter was going to sell the $50m terminal they hadn't built yet at YTZ to Nieuport Aviation Infrastructure Partners GP in January 2015 for something north of $700m, and use the proceeds to underwrite the ongoing losses of the Q400 operation?

[Mac08]

exactly - so why are you blaming the failure of Lynx on Merren exactly? You keep talking in circles and not really answering questions.

Merren made a number of very ill advised tactical decisions, with ultimately the full support and approval of the BoD.

There's no point detailing them; the events of 26 Feb are evidence enough. Most are aware that other than the name, (Lynx), I didn't think much of the concept from day it became obvious what the plan was.

It was the same MO as her tenure at Tiger Air Australia. She's up there with Mike the White when it comes to being a CEO of failed airlines, though by most accounts, she's no dummy. She was in way over head as an airline CEO though; perhaps another example of misguided DEI thinking.

Reading comprehension is not one of the skills often on display here; but there certainly is more than enough "hindsight is 20/20".

Hands up all those folks in 2006 who knew that Porter was going to sell the $50m terminal they hadn't built yet at YTZ to Nieuport Aviation Infrastructure Partners GP in January 2015 for something north of $700m, and use the proceeds to underwrite the ongoing losses of the Q400 operation?


[/quote]

Wait, you don't know everything and everything you should post should be taken with a grain of salt? Wow who knew...

Commenting on reading comprehension yet maybe everyone is just doing what you do, cherry pick through a post?

For a failed executive who got caught like an idiot, I'll repost what I said - You need a hobby, or a life at this point.

[evilgravy]

Merren made a number of very ill advised tactical decisions...

Pretty rich, coming from you...

Hands up to all those at PD now who may think they'll do the same with YHU...

[Mac08]

Merren made a number of very ill advised tactical decisions...

Pretty rich, coming from you...

Hands up to all those at PD now who may think they'll do the same with YHU...

I'll say this is beyond a tactical failure... https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report- ... le1111290/

[Realitychex]

Neither was the $70m pumped into the failed attempt to come up with a proprietary replacement for Open Skies, the millions pumped into the dual bridge concept, the entire 767 fiasco, the botched Sabre cutover. There are many, many others.

Good grief.

That was 20+ years and 4 airlines ago.

And only 1/2 of a story at that, judging by all the non-disclosure agreements executed by all parties, suggesting that perhaps the full details of all the goings on were better off left buried for ever.

An odd decision for sure, especially by the complainant. Why settle and bury it if you figure you’ve got ‘em dead to rights?

Maybe it’s best to settle on the courthouse steps before the judge issues a contempt of court for relentless delays in the court ordered release of documents pertaining to a
rather interesting counter suit with a large donation to CB’s charity of choice and move on, eh?

Everyone else has. I can’t think of anyone involved in the situation who isn’t fully enjoying life, if not comfortably retired with generous flight privileges, including on Porter.

That is, of course, except a few armchair experts who are incapable of formulating a coherent counter argument when presented with a data that strongly suggests an alternative reality to the sunshine and lollipops scenario they’ve bought into.

Instead, they inevitably resort to non sequitor commentary that may feel satisfying, but doesn’t make their case any stronger.

It is so predictable and amusing to those who actually pay attention to, and profit from figuring out the details.

Remind me again which employee group have created any windfall, life changing wealth off Porter in the past 20 years?

That’s the name of the game here, folks.

The rest is just noise to be enjoyed on a sunny afternoon in Arizona.

[Realitychex]

Merren made a number of very ill advised tactical decisions...

Pretty rich, coming from you...

Hands up to all those at PD now who may think they'll do the same with YHU...

I’m pretty sure that’s the plan. From what I hear, it’s certainly the scenario they were circulating on their last low pass through the canyons of Wall Street earlier this fall.

Porter aren’t the only airline attempting to raise capital these days.

[nosferatank]

You'd be tremendously naive to believe anyone but the folks on Camelback Road controlled every decision of any significance when it came to all things Lynx.

Same with Florida controlling everything at Flair, though that is changing. You will note Flair's current CFO lives in a suburb of Atlanta.....

It wouldn't be the first time a BoD was utterly dominated by one personality. I can definitely think of a couple other aviation related examples in Canada, (both private and public), over the past 30 years.

He who has the gold makes the rules.

Flair catching strays even in a Porter thread

[evilgravy]

The rest is just noise to be enjoyed on a sunny afternoon in Arizona.

Enjoy the warm weather. Maybe try a movie?

[Realitychex]

The rest is just noise to be enjoyed on a sunny afternoon in Arizona.

Enjoy the warm weather. Maybe try a movie?

Actually, the hockey is very good here, 3x weekly, early afternoon weekday ice times heading right into happy hour at the onsite bar, very competitive, but clean and a great bunch of guys.

We’re always looking for goalies…..

[evilgravy]

What, you mean people aren’t lining up to play team sports with you? I wish I could say I’m surprised.

[Mac08]

More yapping about how “Clive made me do it”. Still haven’t grown up enough to accept responsibility I see.

If I was a porter employee I’d take pride in knowing that my company is making one of the competition founding executives (Mark Hill for those curious) seethe over a pilots forum because he was wrong so many years ago. I would think most retired executives would have other hobbies but I guess ones with a life do other things.

Any day Porter will be shutting’er down!

[Realitychex]

What, you mean people aren’t lining up to play team sports with you? I wish I could say I’m surprised.

We have 70 folks on the roster looking for 20 openings every skate. And 5 goalies. We could always use more goalies. No different anywhere these days. The group have been skating together now since 2012. Thankfully, the founders of the group always get first dibs. We've gassed a few ex NHL'rs, including a US born 50 goal scorer on that basis. Gotta be loyal to the core group. Sound familiar?

The naivitee on display here is epic.

Do you really believe AC had me in their sites? The guy with a staff of 5, mostly handling real estate, in a company with 3,000 people, who, by 2000, had moved 500 miles from Calgary and was in the office, at most, 2 days a week?

Yesiree. I was the big prize!! I am flattered.

Or perhaps they were more interested in someone else?

And why did Calin R, brilliant lawyer, and AC's future CEO resign on April 8th 2004. Coincidence?

The armchair revisionist historians, not to mention the obfuscators, are a busy bunch these days.

Remind me again how any of this relates to Porter's slack and unprofitable E2 operation in 2024, going into 2025?

[Mac08]

What, you mean people aren’t lining up to play team sports with you? I wish I could say I’m surprised.

The naivitee on display here is epic.

Do you really believe AC had me in their sites? The guy with a staff of 5, mostly handling real estate, in a company with 3,000 people, who, by 2000, had moved 500 miles from Calgary and was in the office, at most, 2 days a week?

Yesiree. I was the big prize!! I am flattered.

Or perhaps they were more interested in someone else?

The armchair revisionist historians, not to mention the obfuscators, are a busy bunch these days.

Remind me again how any of this relates to Porter's slack and unprofitable E2 operation in 2024, going into 2025?

So you were just dumb enough to get caught. Makes sense.

Remind me again what you said about Porter not surviving and here we are in 2024.

[flyinhigh]

What, you mean people aren’t lining up to play team sports with you? I wish I could say I’m surprised.

We have 70 folks on the roster looking for 20 openings every skate. And 5 goalies. We could always use more goalies. No different anywhere these days. The group have been skating together now since 2012. Thankfully, the founders of the group always get first dibs. We've gassed a few ex NHL'rs, including a US born 50 goal scorer on that basis. Gotta be loyal to the core group. Sound familiar?

The naivitee on display here is epic.

Do you really believe AC had me in their sites? The guy with a staff of 5, mostly handling real estate, in a company with 3,000 people, who, by 2000, had moved 500 miles from Calgary and was in the office, at most, 2 days a week?

Yesiree. I was the big prize!! I am flattered.

Or perhaps they were more interested in someone else?

And why did Calin R, brilliant lawyer, and AC's future CEO resign on April 8th 2004. Coincidence?

The armchair revisionist historians, not to mention the obfuscators, are a busy bunch these days.

Remind me again how any of this relates to Porter's slack and unprofitable E2 operation in 2024, going into 2025?

Holy fack dude. For some guy who claims to be a big shot airline guy you sure spend an obscene amount of time on a pilot website. Instead of comparing your willy with some pilots, why don't you go actually run whatever company you work for and make them some money.

[Diadem]

It was fun to watch you dance around the notion that operating an aircraft that, by almost every known metric, has significantly higher operating costs (on the order of 25-45%), but 57 more seats (all filled with happy low-yield pax), is a better ploy than PD’s E2.

Embraer posted a video boosting Porter in which they state that the per-seat cost of the E2 is 4% higher than a MAX 8: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEot_6eBaEM, at 0:45. That's an official source, with the words coming straight out of Michael Deluce's mouth. Note that he described the seat costs as "aggressive" to try to put a positive spin on the graphic displayed at the same time which shows the E2 as being more expensive. Sure, the total trip cost is lower, but that's because it's a smaller aircraft; the total trip cost on a Beech 1900 is lower too, but that doesn't mean it would be economical to operate it in competition with a MAX. The video also shows that the trip cost is 19% lower, but it holds 25% fewer passengers than AC's MAX, and 27% fewer than WestJet's new 180-seat configuration, which means that it can't generate nearly the kinds of revenues that their competitors do. Trip costs are lower, but so are revenues, so does the cost advantage allow enough of a benefit to override the loss of revenue in order to earn a profit? With a higher per-seat cost, I suspect not.

I've never flown on Porter and I don't intend to ever work there, so I have no skin in the game, but from the outside it all seems very suspect. The constant boosting on here, and the recruitment efforts being made by the people I know who have gone there, not to mention all the Porter pilots I pass in the terminal who tell me to apply, reminds me of an MLM company. Everyone there needs the growth to continue for the plans to come to fruition, and that means bringing in as many new pilots as possible, so every critique is attacked or dismissed. All airlines have flaws and weaknesses, and if you immediately dismiss those being made about your employer without considering their veracity then maybe you're just putting your head in the sand.

[SPR]

So you've brought the goods and yet Porter is still around after your failed prediction 15+ years ago, why should anyone believe you? Looks like your daily posts are just "noise".

Maybe not 15 years ago, but they nearly went out of business in 2018. From the lawsuit with Nieuport: https://www.canlii.org/en/on/onsc/doc/2 ... ultIndex=1

55. Nevertheless, in an effort to support its largest customer, between December 2018 and May
2019, Nieuport entered into without prejudice discussions to attempt to address Porter Airlines’
concerns surrounding the economics of the Terminal Fees at the Airport, as well as the Slot
Relinquishment Dispute. As part of those discussions, Porter Airlines disclosed that it was having
liquidity issues and would be insolvent without immediate relief. [Emphasis mine]
56. As a result, on or around January 14, 2019, Nieuport and Porter Holdings entered into an
agreement (the “Cash Flow Agreement”), where Nieuport made certain financial concessions
(further described in paragraphs 94 to 96, below), to assist Porter through its period of financial
strain.

Further: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busines ... os-island/

Porter's CEO apparently told Nieuport's CEO back in 2018 that Porter's forecasted a loss of $40 million for that fiscal year, and that Pearson’s yearly fees would amount to $50-million less than those of Nieuport.

They survived on the generosity of their suppliers and cash injections from their investors. One cannot run an airline forever on investment money alone.

[Realitychex]

What, you mean people aren’t lining up to play team sports with you? I wish I could say I’m surprised.

We have 70 folks on the roster looking for 20 openings every skate. And 5 goalies. We could always use more goalies. No different anywhere these days. The group have been skating together now since 2012. Thankfully, the founders of the group always get first dibs. We've gassed a few ex NHL'rs, including a US born 50 goal scorer on that basis. Gotta be loyal to the core group. Sound familiar?

The naivitee on display here is epic.

Do you really believe AC had me in their sites? The guy with a staff of 5, mostly handling real estate, in a company with 3,000 people, who, by 2000, had moved 500 miles from Calgary and was in the office, at most, 2 days a week?

Yesiree. I was the big prize!! I am flattered.

Or perhaps they were more interested in someone else?

And why did Calin R, brilliant lawyer, and AC's future CEO resign on April 8th 2004. Coincidence?

The armchair revisionist historians, not to mention the obfuscators, are a busy bunch these days.

Remind me again how any of this relates to Porter's slack and unprofitable E2 operation in 2024, going into 2025?

Holy fack dude. For some guy who claims to be a big shot airline guy you sure spend an obscene amount of time on a pilot website. Instead of comparing your willy with some pilots, why don't you go actually run whatever company you work for and make them some money.

News flash, dude. Airlines, (or at least one of them), work for me.

And here's something that might surprise you.

The airline has never operated an ASM in Canada and has no plans or need to do so.

As of year end 2019, I have zero skin in the game in Canada.

I'm just a keen observer who's been around long enough to know how to make a dollar or two in the airline business.

When I see a business plan I like, in a geographic region that I understand, (and in 29 years, that's a total of 4), I'm an investor at the founders level. Three have gone public, one's probably 12-18 months away.

To be sure, there's been money made trading stocks over the years in various established airlines, but the risk / reward is so much more appealing with start ups / new entrants.

These sorts of forums can be a very good source of proprietary info, whether it's posted publicly, or provided via private messaging or via emails sent by folks who communicate via other social media platforms. Combine all the sources and they paint a pretty good picture.

As I've said countless times before, if Porter looked like something that was investable with the chance of a liquidity event and an exit strategy of some sort, there's no reason at all why I and other chronic airline entrepreneur types wouldn't dump 7 figures into it.

Alas, as I've repeatedly pointed out, and backed by data, very little makes sense about Porter. I wish it did. As you can imagine, investors really dislike stagnant, illiquid investments, let alone those that actively destroy capital.

Nothing personal folks.

[khedrei]

So you've brought the goods and yet Porter is still around after your failed prediction 15+ years ago, why should anyone believe you? Looks like your daily posts are just "noise".

Maybe not 15 years ago, but they nearly went out of business in 2018. From the lawsuit with Nieuport: https://www.canlii.org/en/on/onsc/doc/2 ... ultIndex=1

55. Nevertheless, in an effort to support its largest customer, between December 2018 and May
2019, Nieuport entered into without prejudice discussions to attempt to address Porter Airlines’
concerns surrounding the economics of the Terminal Fees at the Airport, as well as the Slot
Relinquishment Dispute. As part of those discussions, Porter Airlines disclosed that it was having
liquidity issues and would be insolvent without immediate relief. [Emphasis mine]
56. As a result, on or around January 14, 2019, Nieuport and Porter Holdings entered into an
agreement (the “Cash Flow Agreement”), where Nieuport made certain financial concessions
(further described in paragraphs 94 to 96, below), to assist Porter through its period of financial
strain.

Further: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busines ... os-island/

Porter's CEO apparently told Nieuport's CEO back in 2018 that Porter's forecasted a loss of $40 million for that fiscal year, and that Pearson’s yearly fees would amount to $50-million less than those of Nieuport.

They survived on the generosity of their suppliers and cash injections from their investors. One cannot run an airline forever on investment money alone.

nevermind in 2020 when they simply refused to pay rent, just shut down operations and claimed they weren't required to fulfill obligations.

Aparently they settled. Who knows for how much. The relationship would have been pretty sour going forward having to continue operations I guess if they didn't come to some kind of agreement.

[Realitychex]

Some more interesting hard data.

On Thurs Dec 12:

Porter's fleet of 42 132 seat E2's generated a total of 101 sectors flown with an ASL of 1,378 miles and fleet utilization of 7hrs 21 mins per tail airtime. Porter generated 437,335 asm's per tail with a total of 13,332 seats in the market. Each tail operated an average of 2.4 sectors. OTP was 92.1%

WestJet's sub-fleet of 36 130 seat 737-700's generated a total of 127 sectors flown with an asl of 1,108 miles and fleet utilization of 8hrs 49 mins per tail airtime. The WS 737-700 sub fleet generated 507,914 asm's per tail with a total of 16,510 seats in the market. Each tail operated an average of 3.5 sectors. OTP was 86.6%.

Once again, Porter's utilization, and therefore revenue generation potential, remains anemic.

This is going to have to change pronto to stem the flow of red ink.

Porter's E2 fully allocated current annualized expenses are easily in excess of $3m a day / $1b a year. P&L's can spiral out of control very quickly with even a single digit negative operating margins.

They'll be the usual 3 week seasonal bounce beginning in earnest on Dec 18th and continuing until Jan 5th, but then things will go uncomfortably quiet on the earned revenue front for about 7 weeks.

Investors will have to get used to the idea of shoveling more cash into the operation with hope of achieving one of the fasted airline maturations in the history of the business.

I wouldn't want to be the CFO over the next while.

As my good friend DGN once told me, "if you don't come to work scared shipless every morning, there's something wrong with you".

Sage advice.