It's Time

[CaptDukeNukem]

We have 70 folks on the roster looking for 20 openings every skate. And 5 goalies. We could always use more goalies. No different anywhere these days. The group have been skating together now since 2012. Thankfully, the founders of the group always get first dibs. We've gassed a few ex NHL'rs, including a US born 50 goal scorer on that basis. Gotta be loyal to the core group. Sound familiar?

The naivitee on display here is epic.

Do you really believe AC had me in their sites? The guy with a staff of 5, mostly handling real estate, in a company with 3,000 people, who, by 2000, had moved 500 miles from Calgary and was in the office, at most, 2 days a week?

Yesiree. I was the big prize!! I am flattered.

Or perhaps they were more interested in someone else?

And why did Calin R, brilliant lawyer, and AC's future CEO resign on April 8th 2004. Coincidence?

The armchair revisionist historians, not to mention the obfuscators, are a busy bunch these days.

Remind me again how any of this relates to Porter's slack and unprofitable E2 operation in 2024, going into 2025?

Holy fack dude. For some guy who claims to be a big shot airline guy you sure spend an obscene amount of time on a pilot website. Instead of comparing your willy with some pilots, why don't you go actually run whatever company you work for and make them some money.

News flash, dude. Airlines, (or at least one of them), work for me.

And here's something that might surprise you.

The airline has never operated an ASM in Canada and has no plans or need to do so.

As of year end 2019, I have zero skin in the game in Canada.

I'm just a keen observer who's been around long enough to know how to make a dollar or two in the airline business.

When I see a business plan I like, in a geographic region that I understand, (and in 29 years, that's a total of 4), I'm an investor at the founders level. Three have gone public, one's probably 12-18 months away.

To be sure, there's been money made trading stocks over the years in various established airlines, but the risk / reward is so much more appealing with start ups / new entrants.

These sorts of forums can be a very good source of proprietary info, whether it's posted publicly, or provided via private messaging or via emails sent by folks who communicate via other social media platforms. Combine all the sources and they paint a pretty good picture.

As I've said countless times before, if Porter looked like something that was investable with the chance of a liquidity event and an exit strategy of some sort, there's no reason at all why I and other chronic airline entrepreneur types wouldn't dump 7 figures into it.

Alas, as I've repeatedly pointed out, and backed by data, very little makes sense about Porter. I wish it did. As you can imagine, investors really dislike stagnant, illiquid investments, let alone those that actively destroy capital.

Nothing personal folks.

Man you are fucking boring. Litterally just scrolled past like 24 of your posts on this thread cuz you have little dick syndrome and need to pump yourself about CASM and fleet utilization. I bet your wife loves you.

[Realitychex]

Another post chock full of hard information and cagy insight.

And people wonder why pilots have so rarely occupied executive positions at any airlines.

Here’s a thought. I bet you could get your OTP to 100% if you cut utilization by another 20%.

And whilst your at it, why not lower your unit costs by another 10% by increasing your asl by another 150 miles !

[cjp]

Another post chock full of hard information and cagy insight.

And people wonder why pilots have so rarely occupied executive positions at any airlines.

Here’s a thought. I bet you could get your OTP to 100% if you cut utilization by another 20%.

And whilst your ar it, why not lower your unit costs by another 10% by increasing your asl by another 150 miles !

I'm always curious watching your posts to see what information I can review, but realistically you said it best; very few pilots make it to the C-suite.

That means this forum, you quite literally are having zero impact with all your statistics because we, as pilots, have zero control over how the fleet is used except as an end user by sticking to cost index, and reducing track miles, when possible. We are scheduled for a flight, we go and fly it. Me pilot, me fly plane.

A lot of what you are posting should be communicated to the Porter C-suite who can give you more insight on the 'Why'. When the stock goes public, you can short the shit out of it.

No one here is interested in fear mongering Porter's collapse, or creating a self fulfilling prophecy where people are scared to come to this operation because Porter isn't running their jets to the most economical ASL.

We like the jet, we like our colleagues, we like our destinations. We're payed decently (more is better), we have safe policies in place. Our goal is to get all Dash 8 guys onto the jet as soon as possible. There's minor grumblings that need to be sorted. Good news, there are still another 28 jets to arrive in the original order. If you remember what Bob says on Day 1, its 100+ E2s. Possibly bigger types and new long range routes after 2028.

That's what this forum is about.

CASM, ASL are statistics the vast majority of pilots do not live by.

We live by types, what would you guys like to see as a long range widebody order? 787, A350, 777? Perhaps Embraer has something theyre going to announce to go head to head with Boeing and Airbus.

[Realitychex]

Pay attention to the macro economics and you’ll be far more educated and in control of your future.

One of the chaps I skate with is a Delta A330 check captain; an original NWA guy.

Nothing surprises him because he’s completely on top of how the industry functions.

Knowledge is power.

[cjp]

Pay attention to the macro economics and you’ll be far more educated and in control of your future.

One of the chaps I skate with is a Delta A330 check captain; an original NWA guy.

Nothing surprises him because he’s completely on top of how the industry functions.

Knowledge is power.

I agree Mark. Delta 330 Captain is likely wanting for nothing - and the understanding of the macro economy is key to life.

[Realitychex]

Your point is taken.

Extensive Xmas travels hither and yon commence this am so the collective desire for “less filling, but tastes great” posts for roughly the next month will be satisfied.

It’ll be interesting to see what utilization does over the holiday season and then in the subsequent dog days of Jan and early February.

It’s not the loads, though they matter. It’s the yields.

[Ozinater]

It was fun to watch you dance around the notion that operating an aircraft that, by almost every known metric, has significantly higher operating costs (on the order of 25-45%), but 57 more seats (all filled with happy low-yield pax), is a better ploy than PD’s E2.

Embraer posted a video boosting Porter in which they state that the per-seat cost of the E2 is 4% higher than a MAX 8: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEot_6eBaEM, at 0:45. That's an official source, with the words coming straight out of Michael Deluce's mouth. Note that he described the seat costs as "aggressive" to try to put a positive spin on the graphic displayed at the same time which shows the E2 as being more expensive. Sure, the total trip cost is lower, but that's because it's a smaller aircraft; the total trip cost on a Beech 1900 is lower too, but that doesn't mean it would be economical to operate it in competition with a MAX. The video also shows that the trip cost is 19% lower, but it holds 25% fewer passengers than AC's MAX, and 27% fewer than WestJet's new 180-seat configuration, which means that it can't generate nearly the kinds of revenues that their competitors do. Trip costs are lower, but so are revenues, so does the cost advantage allow enough of a benefit to override the loss of revenue in order to earn a profit? With a higher per-seat cost, I suspect not.

I've never flown on Porter and I don't intend to ever work there, so I have no skin in the game, but from the outside it all seems very suspect. The constant boosting on here, and the recruitment efforts being made by the people I know who have gone there, not to mention all the Porter pilots I pass in the terminal who tell me to apply, reminds me of an MLM company. Everyone there needs the growth to continue for the plans to come to fruition, and that means bringing in as many new pilots as possible, so every critique is attacked or dismissed. All airlines have flaws and weaknesses, and if you immediately dismiss those being made about your employer without considering their veracity then maybe you're just putting your head in the sand.

The profitability comparison being made earlier on was between Flair (Y189) and Porter’s E2 (Y132). If you’d like to compare against competing NB aircraft at AC and WestJet, all of which have a J class cabin (or what WestJet likes to pass off as J), go ahead. 4% higher per seat is a far cry from the 30% claimed by the poster I quoted. Hence the skepticism.

I have also come across a number of bright-eyed bushy tailed PD folks you speak of (you can always tell who was hired post-COVID), pretty much all on the E2. Self-proclaimed pioneers and trailblazers (not like PD existed prior to the E2 or anything \s), between sips of koolaid you hear about how the operation is humming along perfectly, the passengers love it, the pay raises, yada yada yada. It’s a good product, that’s generally been well-received by the flying public as far as I can tell. It’s not the concorde though. There are lots of happy folks making a career out of Porter, but like any company it’s not perfect and they certainly have their issues (light a candle for the long-forgotten topic of this thread: to unionize or not to unionize?)

At the end of the day no one is forcing you to work there. If you’ve been dreaming of being a dash captain or E2 FO, fill your boots. Like any place, assess the pros/cons and risks, and make an informed decision. If working at Porter presents an unacceptable amount of risk, don’t bother.

I wouldn’t call it an MLM scheme (and I have had someone on an airplane seated next to me try to get me in on one of those). The koolaid is still pretty strong just like it was at WestJet at one point in time. If anything the greatest “sell job” I have noticed/experienced in the industry is folks trying to convince people they needed to be at AC last week (particularly pilots of a certain age group).

[dontcallmeshirley]

This topic no longer has relevance to Porter.

[goingnowherefast]

An A350 will have a lower seat cost than any 737. I guess every 737 operator should go broke any day now.

4% per-seat cost more than a Max 8 is still probably a lower seat cost than a -700 NG. Hell, I bet its still lower than a -900 NG.

[Mac08]

This topic no longer has relevance to Porter.

It really doesn’t, but it is quite comical watching a former executive of the competition seethe like a child on a pilots forum.

[Realitychex]

Seething? Or observing?

After a couple weeks of increased utilization over the peak holiday season, (or at least the last time I looked which was about a week before Christmas), with utilization peaking at summer like 8hrs 25mins, Porter has drifted back down to early Dec levels, with peak days in the low to mid 7hr range with off-peak utilization in the low 6hr range.

ASL’s continue to be in excess of 1,400 miles.

Friends are heading back to Toronto from SAN, PSP and PHX tomorrow and Tues on myID bookings.

Def no issues securing seats on Porter. The collective l/f from these three markets back to YYZ is currently under 40% according to the Stafftraveler screen shots they sent me.

Porter’s Saturday PHX-YYZ is at 48%, making it a good option for a circuitous routing to SJU.

[Ozinater]

Seething? Or observing?

After a couple weeks of increased utilization over the peak holiday season, (or at least the last time I looked which was about a week before Christmas), with utilization peaking at summer like 8hrs 25mins, Porter has drifted back down to early Dec levels, with peak days in the low to mid 7hr range with off-peak utilization in the low 6hr range.

ASL’s continue to be in excess of 1,400 miles.

Friends are heading back to Toronto from SAN, PSP and PHX tomorrow and Tues on myID bookings.

Def no issues securing seats on Porter. The collective l/f from these three markets back to YYZ is currently under 40% according to the Stafftraveler screen shots they sent me.

Porter’s Saturday PHX-YYZ is at 48%, making it a good option for a circuitous routing to SJU.

Definitely seething considering that you're resurrecting a thread that died a month ago, polluting it with even more off topic drivel.

Good thing you're a Porter executive who has the inside scoop on absolutely everything. \s

If you're bent out of shape because the place the place hasn't gone belly up yet, then maybe it's time to find a new unhealthy obsession.

It's a great time to be a standby passenger now that the loads fell off a cliff. A couple friends with January vacation have been taking trips on United and AC with lots of space. I requested WestJet loads for a few flights my relatives were taking the last few days- wide open. Porter is not special in that regard.

[Realitychex]

I see the Nathan Sturm-like defensiveness is alive and well in 2025.

I was hopeful that utilization could have been maintained during the busy winter sun season.

Your point is taken, though. My friends won’t have a problem flying back to YYZ on AC either. Looks like a tough January.

Greta won’t be at all happy but it’s far easier to get to SJU / the Caribbean from PHX via Toronto than on US carriers over any of their hubs.

A vivid example of capacity discipline.

[Mac08]

It's been a month since the last post, you're pathetic.

[Realitychex]

It's been a month since the last post, you're pathetic.

Keeping an eye on the forest is never a bad strategy.

I’m sure there are folks at countless operations over the decades who wished they’d paid a little more attention to the larger picture instead of being “shocked” when things suddenly didn’t turn out the way they’d assumed they would.

Utilization at both the spill carriers is way, way down. One would assume a 20% airborne hours reduction from an off peak day during a peak period to an off peak day during an off peak period would be a safe and prudent bet. But 35.6%?

Flair is way worse with a 55.4% reduction.They must be in a world of hurt as they hurtle towards the end of Feb. That’s potential good news for Porter as there is a degree of network overlap now which increases dramatically in the summer months.

Long time observers of the industry will recall that the end of Feb was not kind to both Jetsgo and Lynx.