How long until layoffs due to Tariffs?

[Dronepiper]

What is everyone's thoughts? My guess is things will slow down by Christmas.

[daedalusx]

Depends on how long it'll last.

It's not impossible that the Americans are in for the long haul and want to pressure their businesses bring back manufacturing. For example, Honda has already signalled that they'll be producing their next gen Civic in the USA.
Perhaps we should have done the same instead of running this bullshit economy of services build on printing money and running billions in deficits.

Or maybe they want to renegotiate the nafta/usmca to their advantage ...

Either way it's going to hurt.

[Arnie Pye]

It's been in their advantage from the start

Nearly
Always
Favours
The
Americans

[daedalusx]

Here we go
https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/qu ... mp-tariffs

[fish4life]

I don’t know if it’s as much of a how long as a how deep will they go.
Do the tariffs result in enough economic harm that the housing market can’t support it causing country wide chaos?
In that case we could be looking at airlines chopping 25% of their work force or more.

[Justjohn]

How long until we’re going to work every day using traditional navaids only because the U.S. government selectively shuts off GPS over Canadian airspace in an escalating trade war? Been a long time since I’ve done a DME Arc or the NDB A into anywhere.

[digits_]

How long until we’re going to work every day using traditional navaids only because the U.S. government selectively shuts off GPS over Canadian airspace in an escalating trade war? Been a long time since I’ve done a DME Arc or the NDB A into anywhere.

Shamattawa will become the hotspot of the north!

On a more serious note, I'm hopeful the reciprocal tariffs will encourage people to start producing some of the stuff locally.

[cdnavater]

How long until we’re going to work every day using traditional navaids only because the U.S. government selectively shuts off GPS over Canadian airspace in an escalating trade war? Been a long time since I’ve done a DME Arc or the NDB A into anywhere.

Shamattawa will become the hotspot of the north!

On a more serious note, I'm hopeful the reciprocal tariffs will encourage people to start producing some of the stuff locally.

Trump sent out a social media post about, “if Canada responds” he will impose further tariffs in the same amount, seemingly to indicate they will always be 25% ahead in the tariffs!
Buckle up people, this could get extremely contentious and have severe consequences on both economies!
The US market is the least of our concerns if no one can afford to travel anywhere!

[BigQ]

It all depends how long it takes Douggie and Malarkey to figure out that we do not hold great cards.

US market is about to boom, they just passed no tax on tips and no tax on overtime in the house and senate. 50c CADUSD by 2026!

[lownslow]

US market is about to boom, they just passed no tax on tips and no tax on overtime in the house and senate. 50c CADUSD by 2026!

It’s funny because that’s probably really to keep bribes off the books. Last year it was established in the US that it’s allowable to tip politicians and judges as thanks for their services.

[digits_]

How long until we’re going to work every day using traditional navaids only because the U.S. government selectively shuts off GPS over Canadian airspace in an escalating trade war? Been a long time since I’ve done a DME Arc or the NDB A into anywhere.

Shamattawa will become the hotspot of the north!

On a more serious note, I'm hopeful the reciprocal tariffs will encourage people to start producing some of the stuff locally.

Trump sent out a social media post about, “if Canada responds” he will impose further tariffs in the same amount, seemingly to indicate they will always be 25% ahead in the tariffs!
Buckle up people, this could get extremely contentious and have severe consequences on both economies!
The US market is the least of our concerns if no one can afford to travel anywhere!

Possibly, but just because Canada has 25% tariffs doesn't mean the price of those goods will actually increase by 25%. In an ideal world, nobody would be paying those tariffs, because the products are sourced from elsewhere. Which is precisely the point of the tariffs.

The 100 dollar car part would now cost 125 if ordered from the US, but perhaps it would now be worth it to pay the shipping from Europe and 'only' pay 105 dollars. I'm sure recent events would make Europe and likely even China more amenable to tariff free trade.

What stuff does Canada need from the US that can not relatively easy be sourced elsewhere?

[Dias]

What stuff does Canada need from the US that can not relatively easy be sourced elsewhere?

Easy to source? There's a lot we rely on them for. People seem pretty naive right now. To answer OP's question, there will be layoffs today.

[fish4life]

What stuff does Canada need from the US that can not relatively easy be sourced elsewhere?

Easy to source? There's a lot we rely on them for. People seem pretty naive right now. To answer OP's question, there will be layoffs today.

I’m assuming they mean in aviation

[Me262]

It's been in their advantage from the start

Nearly
Always
Favours
The
Americans

They are the powerhouse so why not

[digits_]

What stuff does Canada need from the US that can not relatively easy be sourced elsewhere?

Easy to source? There's a lot we rely on them for.

Yes, hence my question: what do we need from the US that we can not easily source somewhere else?

[BigQ]

US market is about to boom, they just passed no tax on tips and no tax on overtime in the house and senate. 50c CADUSD by 2026!

It’s funny because that’s probably really to keep bribes off the books. Last year it was established in the US that it’s allowable to tip politicians and judges as thanks for their services.

Possibly? Still think it's a very dumb idea to bet against the US market and US dollar right now. Capital inflows to the US, now appearing to be the "shining beacon on the hill" of investments, are massive. Canada, not so much. Definitely betting against.

[7ECA]

US markets closed down today, erasing all gains seen since the November election. So, the markets are betting against this being a "shining" example of economic brilliance.

It's going to negatively affect both countries, but the idea that US consumers and corporations will not feel any pain from tariffs is simply idiotic.

[digits_]

I hope we dial down our border patrolling again. If it's not being appreciated, we might as well save the money.

[Daniel Cooper]

I wouldn't say we hold no cards. We have a pair of 2's.

[WickeDolphin]

Sorry everyone, its my fault. Just got offered my first flying job up north.

[cdnavater]

I hope we dial down our border patrolling again. If it's not being appreciated, we might as well save the money.

Right from get go I thought it was a ridiculous notion that WE are to prevent drugs crossing THEIR border, beef up you own god damn border!
We need to prevent humans and whatever they want to bring North across our border, if I were patrolling and saw someone going south, I would say giver buddy, just don’t try and come back this way!

[Jean-Pierre]

Sorry everyone, its my fault. Just got offered my first flying job up north.

Jobs serving the reserves are pretty recession proof, epidemic proof, terrorism proof, etc

[Victory]

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[SE7EN]

How long until we’re going to work every day using traditional navaids only because the U.S. government selectively shuts off GPS over Canadian airspace in an escalating trade war? Been a long time since I’ve done a DME Arc or the NDB A into anywhere.

How exactly would they do that? The signal only requires a receiver. If they used a jammer it could interfere with their northern states.

Not to mention we could work something out with one of the 4 other GNSS systems like Galileo…

[fliter]

How long until we’re going to work every day using traditional navaids only because the U.S. government selectively shuts off GPS over Canadian airspace in an escalating trade war? Been a long time since I’ve done a DME Arc or the NDB A into anywhere.

How exactly would they do that? The signal only requires a receiver. If they used a jammer it could interfere with their northern states.

Repositioning some satellite orbits a couple of years back placed YHZ on the fringes of WAAS coverage. They can't cut off the service right at the border, but they can definitely significantly reduce accuracy and reliability in large chunks of Canada that are not close to the U.S.

Not to mention we could work something out with one of the 4 other GNSS systems like Galileo…

Oh yeah, that'll work just amazing, considering how quick and nimble the industry is when it comes to massive regulatory and technical changes like switching to a completely different GNSS system. /s

Just for reference, our company began updating the FMSs to the latest version, and now our RNP approaches are broken, updates have stopped, and tails that received the updates aren't allowed to fly RNPs anymore. This has been dragging on since December, and will continue for a few more months, no doubt. And that's with the established GNSS system for what should have been a relatively minor operational FMS update... I can just imagine how smoothly and quickly (not!) the switch to Galileo is going to happen!