How Will Canadian Airlines Be Affected by The Trade War

[pelmet]

It sounds like it is a 75% drop in bookings to the US.

How does that affect....

AC
WJ
Porter
Flair
AT
Anyone else?

I guess the least we can do is use Canadian carriers if we fly down there instead of UA, AA, DL, etc.

[fish4life]

It sounds like it is a 75% drop in bookings to the US.

How does that affect....

AC
WJ
Porter
Flair
AT
Anyone else?

I guess the least we can do is use Canadian carriers if we fly down there instead of UA, AA, DL, etc.

AC - Long haul flying will probably be stronger going forward
Domestic stronger
CAN - US will be weaker and lead to reductions but US connecting to international network shouldn’t be effected much.

WJ - US summer flying will be hit hard as most us CAN - US not 6th degree travellers. Pivot to more international destinations and even added southern flying for summer. Winter will most likely see a reduction of US flying swapped in for increased south (good thing for SWG acquisition now) and I wouldn’t be surprised if some European 737 flying remains over the winter

Porter - probably among the hardest hit as most of the expansion is to the US and doesn’t have international flying to help people pivot to. Winter may be a bigger issue with less domestic flying if demand is still down

Flair - similar issues to porter

AT - probably the least effected and may actually result in stronger overall demand for their product as US flying is barely existent during the summer and I can see a shift of reduced US flying for more southern flying in the winter .

[altiplano]

I heard that the word 70% number is vastly overstated.

[Dry Guy]

They're all going to be decimated because Canadians won't be able to afford to travel by air.

[C-GGGQ]

I heard that the word 70% number is vastly overstated.

Yes. 6.8% is what we’re being told.

[Blackdog0301]

They're all going to be decimated because Canadians won't be able to afford to travel by air.

Easy there Dry Guy.

[CpnCrunch]

I heard that the word 70% number is vastly overstated.

Yes. 6.8% is what we’re being told.

There seem to be various figures, but they may be for different data. Air Canada says bookings for the "routes" are down 10%. But that isn't Canada to US, it's bookings in both directions. US tourists visiting Canada might be up, which would balance out the route. The original story was specifically for Canadian bookings to the US.

TBH I don't really understand why anyone would voluntarily go to the US right now.

[Launchpad1]

They're all going to be decimated because Canadians won't be able to afford to travel by air.

My understanding of what Carney just announced is that the Canadian tax payer will pay money to the American auto industry to make sure it keeps building in Canada. So in effect the Canadian tax payer will be paying money to the US government.

If that's the case, and they do the same for other industries, then all that will happen is Canada will just become more indebted and people will keep their jobs.

[DanWEC]

Looks like the market is reacting to TRZ's lack of US exposure. Up almost 10% today among a sea of red. Time will tell if recessionary conditions develop putting downward pressure on overall leisure demand however.

[Dry Guy]

Oof $1.67. Remember that guy bragging that they bought at $12?

[‘Bob’]

They won’t be for the most part.

First is the inelasticity of demand. Our two countries are highly dependent on each other. So those who have to go to the USA still will regardless.

Second is a pivot to Europe and Asia and Latin America for business and travel.

Barring the increasing likelihood of a GOP supermajority to veto Trump’s tariffs or articles of impeachment followed by a successful conviction and hopefully bi-partisan bills to change and ratify the US Constitution so this type of thing never happens again…. we will simply go elsewhere.

Canadians still want to travel and do business, and other countries will be eager to replace as much American business as they can with ours.