Hiring demand vs supply?

[lostav8r]

I've looked at the TC numbers released recently and it seems supply is way up!



Over the past few years it seems the number of ATPL's issued yearly has nearly doubled, CPL's issued has seen a huge amount of growth as well. Obviously the demand side of the article isn't published but my gut feeling is 705 demand is probably flat and at this point, is 500-600 a year a realistic number?

This feels like a bad sign going forward, has the music stopped?

Source: https://tc.canada.ca/en/aviation/licens ... statistics

[Daniel Cooper]

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Could it be because of an increase in the population?

[lostav8r]

1753651911797322.jpg

Could it be because of an increase in the population?

I don’t think it is, but the reason is irrelevant.

My question is are my assumptions about the demand of supply correct?

[safetyfirst123]

The issuance of ATPL's has increased roughly 50%, not nearly doubled, but it's a valid question. There is definitely an overall increase in demand for pilots due to more flights, plenty of retirements, and also because of the duty rules introduced a few years ago. Wages have a long way to go, but they have increased in the last few years, and perhaps that's having a positive impact on the supply of pilots. If anything, I believe the pilot shortage is over, and we will likely continue to be in a relatively stable environment where finding that first job and building experience is the hardest part.

[goingnowherefast]

1753651911797322.jpg

Could it be because of an increase in the population?

I don’t think it is, but the reason is irrelevant.

My question is are my assumptions about the demand of supply correct?

Increased population means an increase in the number of passengers as well. That means a higher number of pilots is required. Has the ratio of pilots to population changed?

Great, we have more pilots, but is there are more passengers to move as well.

The historical average is about 600 new ATPLs a year. That means about 700 more ATPLs in the last 3 years than historical norms. 2020 and 2021 were about 200 less than normal, so we're only at 400 more new ATPLs than normal over the last 3 years.

Porter and AC are taking that and more just in growth. Some of ACs new hires will be Porter ATPL pilots, so there's duplicates. We're still short ATPL pilots.

We're probably about where the industry needs to be with fresh 250hr CPL pilots, if not a little too many. Also, a lot of those new CPLs will be overseas students, so maybe just about right for fresh CPLs staying in Canada.

[scdriver]

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Interesting and fairly predictable numbers when it’s broken down by citizenship for license issuance. Now what I’d be interested to know is how many of the foreign citizens that are issued ATPLs are staying in Canada vs maybe using our fairly easy ATPL requirements to convert to other countries and then leaving. Depending on how many are leaving, the number of new ATPLs that are staying in the Canadian market may be more constant than you’d think by looking at overall numbers.

[lostav8r]

IMG_0942.png

Interesting and fairly predictable numbers when it’s broken down by citizenship for license issuance. Now what I’d be interested to know is how many of the foreign citizens that are issued ATPLs are staying in Canada vs maybe using our fairly easy ATPL requirements to convert to other countries and then leaving. Depending on how many are leaving, the number of new ATPLs that are staying in the Canadian market may be more constant than you’d think by looking at overall numbers.

I’m not super well informed, but I understand getting your CPL here and then moving back home, but don’t most countries either have a very low number of hours to fly at the equivalent of a 705, or want experience on type in other cases in which case having an ATPL is still not really any better than just leaving after CPL?

[scdriver]

IMG_0942.png

Interesting and fairly predictable numbers when it’s broken down by citizenship for license issuance. Now what I’d be interested to know is how many of the foreign citizens that are issued ATPLs are staying in Canada vs maybe using our fairly easy ATPL requirements to convert to other countries and then leaving. Depending on how many are leaving, the number of new ATPLs that are staying in the Canadian market may be more constant than you’d think by looking at overall numbers.

I’m not super well informed, but I understand getting your CPL here and then moving back home, but don’t most countries either have a very low number of hours to fly at the equivalent of a 705, or want experience on type in other cases in which case having an ATPL is still not really any better than just leaving after CPL?

That’s definitely true, except for maybe the states if there’s folks using it to get there? Certainly possible most of these folks stay in Canada, I’m just posturing. I think everybody knows there’s hundreds of foreigners getting CPLs who are leaving the next day.

[Red_Comet]

Asking around anecdotally, it's pretty clear that the hiring at all levels (FTU/703/704/705) has slowed to a trickle. The population surge can only do so much, as disposable income for the middle class has been rapidly diminishing over the past decade. The only cohort that is travelling much now are the pre-covid asset bubble surfers.

[dustyroads]

Asking around anecdotally, it's pretty clear that the hiring at all levels (FTU/703/704/705) has slowed to a trickle. The population surge can only do so much, as disposable income for the middle class has been rapidly diminishing over the past decade. The only cohort that is travelling much now are the pre-covid asset bubble surfers.

How did the crew shortage evaporate pretty much overnight? Just in the spring for example Encore was looking to hire temporary foreign crews for Captains, did a bunch of their First Officers get upgraded recently? Are airlines parking aircraft now?

[champcamp]

This may just be rumour, but heard from a buddy of mine (flies corporate) that AC is taking a bunch of FOs from Jazz pretty soon. Not sure if it’s just legit or not though, I’d have to hear it from someone actually at AC to buy it.

[lostav8r]

This may just be rumour, but heard from a buddy of mine (flies corporate) that AC is taking a bunch of FOs from Jazz pretty soon. Not sure if it’s just legit or not though, I’d have to hear it from someone actually at AC to buy it.

Nobody I know at AC has heard this, and wouldn't it make sense to take the captians instead?

[champcamp]

This may just be rumour, but heard from a buddy of mine (flies corporate) that AC is taking a bunch of FOs from Jazz pretty soon. Not sure if it’s just legit or not though, I’d have to hear it from someone actually at AC to buy it.

Nobody I know at AC has heard this, and wouldn't it make sense to take the captians instead?

Haha yeah that would make more sense. That’s what I get for listening to the rumor mill lol.

[philaviate]

This may just be rumour, but heard from a buddy of mine (flies corporate) that AC is taking a bunch of FOs from Jazz pretty soon. Not sure if it’s just legit or not though, I’d have to hear it from someone actually at AC to buy it.

Nobody I know at AC has heard this, and wouldn't it make sense to take the captians instead?

Not necessarily. Aren't jazz and encore etc struggling to have enough captains, but generally have plenty of FO. And lots of those FO don't have the requirements to upgrade?
So moving some stuck FO into mainline FO positions could make good business sense.

[lostav8r]

This may just be rumour, but heard from a buddy of mine (flies corporate) that AC is taking a bunch of FOs from Jazz pretty soon. Not sure if it’s just legit or not though, I’d have to hear it from someone actually at AC to buy it.

Nobody I know at AC has heard this, and wouldn't it make sense to take the captians instead?

Not necessarily. Aren't jazz and encore etc struggling to have enough captains, but generally have plenty of FO. And lots of those FO don't have the requirements to upgrade?
So moving some stuck FO into mainline FO positions could make good business sense.

The way I had it explained to me was that Air Canada hires, future captains! If you’re a captain at jazz, you’ve worked in the hardest airports on the busiest routes, etc.

They (AC) don’t want to have a glut of FOs who can never upgrade

[leafs95]

Nobody I know at AC has heard this, and wouldn't it make sense to take the captians instead?

Not necessarily. Aren't jazz and encore etc struggling to have enough captains, but generally have plenty of FO. And lots of those FO don't have the requirements to upgrade?
So moving some stuck FO into mainline FO positions could make good business sense.

The way I had it explained to me was that Air Canada hires, future captains! If you’re a captain at jazz, you’ve worked in the hardest airports on the busiest routes, etc.

They (AC) don’t want to have a glut of FOs who can never upgrade

philaviate and lostav8r, I'm under the impression both of you don't realize you require an ATPL to even apply for a pilot position at AC.

[lostav8r]

Not necessarily. Aren't jazz and encore etc struggling to have enough captains, but generally have plenty of FO. And lots of those FO don't have the requirements to upgrade?
So moving some stuck FO into mainline FO positions could make good business sense.

The way I had it explained to me was that Air Canada hires, future captains! If you’re a captain at jazz, you’ve worked in the hardest airports on the busiest routes, etc.

They (AC) don’t want to have a glut of FOs who can never upgrade

philaviate and lostav8r, I'm under the impression both of you don't realize you require an ATPL to even apply for a pilot position at AC.

As someone who will never make a dollar from flying, Guilty lmao

[Red_Comet]

Asking around anecdotally, it's pretty clear that the hiring at all levels (FTU/703/704/705) has slowed to a trickle. The population surge can only do so much, as disposable income for the middle class has been rapidly diminishing over the past decade. The only cohort that is travelling much now are the pre-covid asset bubble surfers.

How did the crew shortage evaporate pretty much overnight? Just in the spring for example Encore was looking to hire temporary foreign crews for Captains, did a bunch of their First Officers get upgraded recently? Are airlines parking aircraft now?

The "shortage" was the same shortage we all have: a shortage of private jets, Ferraris and mansions. If you don't want to pay the asking price, there's a shortage of pretty much everything, including commercial pilots. Ask airline pilots what regionals were paying a decade ago. Now that salaries have gone up, bright eyed young'ins are going into debt getting their ratings only to be stuck with 200 hrs and nothing but ramp jobs.

It doesn't take long to train pilots, and we don't have a 1500 hour rule so the barrier to entry is non-existent. The post covid years were the only time you could be a 250 hr pilot going straight to a regional airline. We're back to the old grind from what I'm hearing.

It's the same all across Canada, flooding the market with the world's poor with no jobs in sight. Sure it'll end well.

[lostav8r]

Asking around anecdotally, it's pretty clear that the hiring at all levels (FTU/703/704/705) has slowed to a trickle. The population surge can only do so much, as disposable income for the middle class has been rapidly diminishing over the past decade. The only cohort that is travelling much now are the pre-covid asset bubble surfers.

How did the crew shortage evaporate pretty much overnight? Just in the spring for example Encore was looking to hire temporary foreign crews for Captains, did a bunch of their First Officers get upgraded recently? Are airlines parking aircraft now?

The "shortage" was the same shortage we all have: a shortage of private jets, Ferraris and mansions. If you don't want to pay the asking price, there's a shortage of pretty much everything, including commercial pilots. Ask airline pilots what regionals were paying a decade ago. Now that salaries have gone up, bright eyed young'ins are going into debt getting their ratings only to be stuck with 200 hrs and nothing but ramp jobs.

It doesn't take long to train pilots, and we don't have a 1500 hour rule so the barrier to entry is non-existent. The post covid years were the only time you could be a 250 hr pilot going straight to a regional airline. We're back to the old grind from what I'm hearing.

It's the same all across Canada, flooding the market with the world's poor with no jobs in sight. Sure it'll end well.

2 years of ramping to get minimum wage (or less) flying a clapped out king air for the chance to make half the living wage at Jazz in our biggest cities after who knows how long up north?

[goldeneagle]

How did the crew shortage evaporate pretty much overnight? Just in the spring for example Encore was looking to hire temporary foreign crews for Captains, did a bunch of their First Officers get upgraded recently? Are airlines parking aircraft now?

Same thing that's been happening in the fall for as long as I can remember. Fly in lodges start to close up for the winter, float drivers end up out of work. They take up any available positions while the 200 hour wonders sit on the outside looking in.

Histrorically, hiring in aviation outside of the major airlines has always been seasonal. In the spring, northern operators are ramping up for the season, lodge operations are ramping up, etc etc. Then when fall arrives, there is an equivalent amount of 'ramping down', which puts a bunch of folks with hours in the book into the job market again, which in turn basically excludes any green new pilots from getting a job till spring hiring starts up again.

Aviation has always been cyclical. The short term cycle revolves around the seasonal stuff, then the longer term cycle revolves around the ups and downs of the economy. Hiring at the airline level ebbs and flows with the longer term cycles, hiring at the entry and mid levels revolves around the seasonal cycle.

Right now, in the late fall of 2025 we are at the low point of the seasonal cycle, and to many eyes, on the downswing for the longer term cycle. This is in start contrast to spring a couple years back where both cycles were at the peak at the same time.

[philaviate]

Not necessarily. Aren't jazz and encore etc struggling to have enough captains, but generally have plenty of FO. And lots of those FO don't have the requirements to upgrade?
So moving some stuck FO into mainline FO positions could make good business sense.

The way I had it explained to me was that Air Canada hires, future captains! If you’re a captain at jazz, you’ve worked in the hardest airports on the busiest routes, etc.

They (AC) don’t want to have a glut of FOs who can never upgrade

philaviate and lostav8r, I'm under the impression both of you don't realize you require an ATPL to even apply for a pilot position at AC.

Fair point.
But equally they could waive that for flow positions if it suited their business.

[jpilot77]

The way I had it explained to me was that Air Canada hires, future captains! If you’re a captain at jazz, you’ve worked in the hardest airports on the busiest routes, etc.

They (AC) don’t want to have a glut of FOs who can never upgrade

philaviate and lostav8r, I'm under the impression both of you don't realize you require an ATPL to even apply for a pilot position at AC.

Fair point.
But equally they could waive that for flow positions if it suited their business.

They require a ATPL and 2000 TT I don’t see AC waiving either of those to hire Jazz FOs (not to mention passing over higher seniority captains at Jazz which would contravene the PML).

[goingnowherefast]

philaviate and lostav8r, I'm under the impression both of you don't realize you require an ATPL to even apply for a pilot position at AC.

Fair point.
But equally they could waive that for flow positions if it suited their business.

They require a ATPL and 2000 TT I don’t see AC waiving either of those to hire Jazz FOs (not to mention passing over higher seniority captains at Jazz which would contravene the PML).

2000hrs and an ATPL, but doesn't want to upgrade at Jazz, or didn't make it through the upgrade process. Would AC be interested in those types of FOs, with no command experience?

[jpilot77]

Fair point.
But equally they could waive that for flow positions if it suited their business.

They require a ATPL and 2000 TT I don’t see AC waiving either of those to hire Jazz FOs (not to mention passing over higher seniority captains at Jazz which would contravene the PML).

2000hrs and an ATPL, but doesn't want to upgrade at Jazz, or didn't make it through the upgrade process. Would AC be interested in those types of FOs, with no command experience?

Another of the stipulations of the PML are that you work at Jazz for a minimum of two years. I know of several that passed on the upgrade because they were getting close to two years and didn’t want to do an upgrade for 3-4 months and then start another course when they got to AC.

[Me262]

philaviate and lostav8r, I'm under the impression both of you don't realize you require an ATPL to even apply for a pilot position at AC.

Fair point.
But equally they could waive that for flow positions if it suited their business.

They require a ATPL and 2000 TT I don’t see AC waiving either of those to hire Jazz FOs (not to mention passing over higher seniority captains at Jazz which would contravene the PML).

HA! Haven't you learned anything yet? AC always gets its way. See Jazz, CIRB, etc. If they see that non-upgradable FO's from Jazz make sense, they will do it. Encore lowered their requirements down to 250 before upping them back up to 750, no reason why AC can't do the same. Porter doesn't require an ATPL. What stops AC from doing it if they see it fit. (I would say or WJ, but with their Sunwing glut, it will be a while)