Jet stream down

[pdw]

The “wet snow flakes” impacting rwy surface “ at -15” C are solid on contact and even a thin coat stiffer snow is affecting ground acceleration / IAS. After “longer” liftoff would be forced to shallow climb in northwest direction when “inversion” air above is from S/SE direction. (Referencing from gfa-archive 01/23 1200Z valid at the time and YPY/YBE metars wunderground wx hist data).

One system of a meteorological COL (2HI 2LO) could have stronger/strongest circulation over the other three, in this case/time the SW corner is a LO ( from the gfa it appears that the COL saddle (middle where ridge&trough intersect) is centred approx over YSM at the time) which was an opportunity there for associated stronger counterclockwise s/se circulation of warmer inversion air with altitude in the area of this airport. At the time, prior to departure, the light surface/takeoff component, a very cold 5 KTS out of the northwest, favoured the chosen rwy 30 takeoff direction perfectly (historic metars).

[Hysteria]

Do we still not know the cause from the TSB?

[JL]

There was an update back in April...

https://www.tsb.gc.ca/eng/enquetes-inve ... W0008.html

[JL]

There was an update back in April...

https://www.tsb.gc.ca/eng/enquetes-inve ... W0008.html

[Justjohn]

Bump

It’s coming up on a year ago now and I sure would like some answers.

[cncpc]

Bump

It’s coming up on a year ago now and I sure would like some answers.

Nothing mechanical. TSB has found nothing to support that. Defaulting to pilot error likely. Some voices on the box but content can't be determined.

It was a bad pairing of crew that flight. There is history leading up to this. Not sure if the TSB even has that evidence. This cries out for a coroner's inquest.

[Dry Guy]

What do you mean? Like the crew hated each other? Just tell the story in one go. What are you, George R. R. Martin?

[medi-whacked]

Bump

It’s coming up on a year ago now and I sure would like some answers.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/fo ... -1.7438844

[pelmet]

It was a bad pairing of crew that flight. There is history leading up to this. Not sure if the TSB even has that evidence. This cries out for a coroner's inquest.

If there is something you feel the TSB should be aware of, keep in mind that there is at least one investigator that I have communicated with on this board that reads what is said on here. Perhaps the time has come to go beyond hints.

[JL]

Another TSB update:

https://www.tsb.gc.ca/eng/enquetes-inve ... w0008.html

[shamrock104]

Interesting that they are now concentrating on the Human performance aspect having discounted weather and aircraft performance at this particular time. Like most investigations it appears very thorough.

[pdw]

I don’t read in there ‘weather ruled out’ ...

My information is that at 6:30, in the town, there was wet snow falling with very large flakes. That is odd at -15, other than with an inversion…..

IMO it might be worth checking out what are ‘low level inversion eddies’ … (ie saw somewhere NVU Lyndon Campus had a published diagram) will try to find it again. Earlier rwy tkof direction (component) was opposite, seeing the earlier metars; it hints a low level (inversion) shear-zone possible within first few hundred AGL.


(Edit: found it again .. “eddy formation along a shearzone” (Apollo .nvu.vsc.edu)

[oldncold]

I would urge those to re read my original post on page 1 of this topic. . A year later i say icing not a factor . The pilot error. Of a high time capt and a qualified f/0 though possible. I have my doubts .

Pilot medical incapacitaion. Of the capt. And first officer who only weighs a buck 40 unable to move capt Away from the controls at a critical point in the takeoff sequence . . Is the highest of my list of probables due to the age of the capt involved. Along with fact that the aircraft impacted only 1600 ft from departure end of runway. . The standard requirement of all 704 aircraft to meet the standard climb gradient and be min 35ft above the runway. Suggest it went horribly wrong early
However. We must give the process time ro finish.

[TeePeeCreeper]

I would urge those to re read my original post on page 1 of this topic. . A year later i say icing not a factor . The pilot error. Of a high time capt and a qualified f/0 though possible. I have my doubts .

Pilot medical incapacitaion. Of the capt. And first officer who only weighs a buck 40 unable to move capt Away from the controls at a critical point in the takeoff sequence . . Is the highest of my list of probables due to the age of the capt involved. Along with fact that the aircraft impacted only 1600 ft from departure end of runway. . The standard requirement of all 704 aircraft to meet the standard climb gradient and be min 35ft above the runway. Suggest it went horribly wrong early
However. We must give the process time ro finish.

Hold up! Did I understand you correctly? You are saying there is a far lot more to the story and from what you posted are making some pretty serious and wild claims.

Strangely in the same post of yours you feel the need to remain stoic while preaching to others «give the process time ro finish ».

Do you realize how convoluted your post is Oldncold?

TPC

[Nauclerus]

A year later and the identity of the Captain has still not been released or reported. Why ? Someone on this forum must know.

[tons-o-fun]

I don’t read in there ‘weather ruled out’ ...

My information is that at 6:30, in the town, there was wet snow falling with very large flakes. That is odd at -15, other than with an inversion…..

IMO it might be worth checking out what are ‘low level inversion eddies’ … (ie saw somewhere NVU Lyndon Campus had a published diagram) will try to find it again. Earlier rwy tkof direction (component) was opposite, seeing the earlier metars; it hints a low level (inversion) shear-zone possible within first few hundred AGL.

Dude, What?

[pdw]

A29.75 (1007) given 15min after accident (metar supplied on first page from 14.01Z). This “warmest” air (warm inversion) circulation originates from S/SE direction, so along same 1007 isobar in from ne/se (just inside the Lo system at SW corner of the COL’s centre ); to estimate speed above airport requires a pressure reading (history) close enough southeast (uranium city no data).

[BTD]

[quote=pdw post_id=<a href="tel:1330653">1330653</a> time=<a href="tel:1737850110">1737850110</a> user_id=37034]
I don’t read in there ‘weather ruled out’ ...

[quote=cncpc post_id=<a href="tel:1296722">1296722</a> time=<a href="tel:1706144561">1706144561</a> user_id=32952] My information is that at 6:30, in the town, there was wet snow falling with very large flakes. That is odd at -15, other than with an inversion…..

IMO it might be worth checking out what are ‘low level inversion eddies’ … (ie saw somewhere NVU Lyndon Campus had a published diagram) will try to find it again. Earlier rwy tkof direction (component) was opposite, seeing the earlier metars; it hints a low level (inversion) shear-zone possible within first few hundred AGL.
[/quote]

Dude, What?
[/quote]

You must be unfamiliar with pdw’s posts. The winds have forced him underground for many years now, but as they let up he has surfaced again to explain all accidents as a result of tailwinds.

(I’m just messing with you pdw)

[Nauclerus]

Ah yes the dreaded Arctic low level inversion eddies. I can't remember how many times I almost bought the farm after encountering the sudden 1 knot airspeed loss on departure.

[rookiepilot]

It was a bad pairing of crew that flight. There is history leading up to this. Not sure if the TSB even has that evidence. This cries out for a coroner's inquest.

If there is something you feel the TSB should be aware of, keep in mind that there is at least one investigator that I have communicated with on this board that reads what is said on here. Perhaps the time has come to go beyond hints.

Yeah. Out with it.

[cncpc]

[quote=pdw post_id=<a href="tel:1330653">1330653</a> time=<a href="tel:1737850110">1737850110</a> user_id=37034]
I don’t read in there ‘weather ruled out’ ...

[quote=cncpc post_id=<a href="tel:1296722">1296722</a> time=<a href="tel:1706144561">1706144561</a> user_id=32952] My information is that at 6:30, in the town, there was wet snow falling with very large flakes. That is odd at -15, other than with an inversion…..

IMO it might be worth checking out what are ‘low level inversion eddies’ … (ie saw somewhere NVU Lyndon Campus had a published diagram) will try to find it again. Earlier rwy tkof direction (component) was opposite, seeing the earlier metars; it hints a low level (inversion) shear-zone possible within first few hundred AGL.

Dude, What?
[/quote]

You must be unfamiliar with pdw’s posts. The winds have forced him underground for many years now, but as they let up he has surfaced again to explain all accidents as a result of tailwinds.

(I’m just messing with you pdw)
[/quote]

PDW is ok.

[Justjohn]

Bump


Been 2 years. What are you waiting for TSB?

[Canoehead]

Next steps
This accident investigation is ongoing and is currently in the report writing phase. The initial draft report is going through the TSB’s internal review process prior to the confidential draft report review process.

This was from the update in January 2025.

My guess is that the "confidential draft report review" is mired down with legal counsel. The TSB knows what happened and there's a report ready to go. Would be nice if the TSB dispensed with "feelings" (risks and lessons) and would report on "facts" (probable cause). The facts have been ready for reporting for a long time. They're stuck on the feelings right now.

[cncpc]

As some of you know, I do have some insights into NWAL and have been discussing this with others who have worked there. I know a small bit more about the investigation than has been officially released.

There were no mechanical faults found that could have caused the accident. The CVR does have voices in the final seconds, but as far as I know, it was not possible to determine what the words were or who was speaking. I expect it was both pilots and that continuing efforts to get a clear transcript may be part of the delay.

I am sure that the cause ultimately traces back to the failure on the part of Transport Canada to properly oversee flight operations. That is not to say that it was some cowboy gong show. It certainly wasn't. Kids came in, did their time in ops, moved up to right seat, and in a whole lot of cases, went to the left side and on to the majors, where they did quite well. If you go 50 years without a serious accident, you have to be doing a whole lot of things well. Excellent maintenance was part of that. But, there were individual gaps in certain necessary performances. And, very occasionally, unsuitable people in pilots seats.

The TSB determines cause. It does not assign blame. I believe NWAL knows it is to blame for a failing within flight ops. Those failings have been known for a long time. The Transport Canada principal ops inspector was called and a message left about risks at that company. The call was never returned.
As the TSB does not have a remit to assign blame, it won't. This accident probably can't be explained to the public, and particularly the families of the victims, without assigning blame. As someone said above, its in the hands of lawyers at the TSB.