Middle East conflicts affecting Canada?

[digits_]

How are the troubles in the Middle East affecting Canadian airlines?

Emirates is operating near emptry flights. Any major issues for Canadians? Fuel price could have disastrous economic consequences, any other airline specific threats out there?

[prop2jet]

You have already stated the obvious, increased fuel prices. That will get passed down to the consumer level. Keep in mind that these increased fuel prices will have an impact on all consumer goods. You may see reduced travel demand as costs soar. A long and protracted war will have a disastrous effect on the global economy. Your worse case scenario is world global economic depression. Markets will tank, mass layoffs and bankruptcies.

The so called "genious" at the Oval Office who has bankrupted 6 businesses in the past, including an effing CASINO will get to go down as the guy who managed to bankrupt the world economy.

How the Iran War will cause a global economic crisis:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xPhV5bc8d6Q

[Eric Janson]

Let's not forget that more areas of the World are increasingly "no fly" zones.

Even in 'safe' airspace GPS jamming and spoofing are serious issues. I've had multiple first hand experiences.

Jeppesen FD Pro shows these regions in red and blue - a real eye opener.

This may require long re-routes and make some routes uneconomical.

Insurance may not cover certain routes or areas.

Increased fuel prices will increase ticket prices making it too expensive for people to fly.


Huge Economic shock incoming imho. Not clear how things will play out.

Going to get really bad imho.

[BigQ]

Just in the last 48 hours, in retaliation for Israel bombing the South Fars gas field in Iran, LNG installations in Qatar and the UAE, and oil refineries in Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, KSA, Kuwait and Israel have been hit. Estimates range from 2 to 5 years to get all those critical pieces of infrastructure back up and running.

This happened after Iran made a statement of "don't hit our energy facilities, we won't hit yours". But Israel couldn't take the possibility of the war ending without complete destruction of Iran and it coming to a peaceful conclusion.

Estimates are of ~1 month's worth of bombs and offensive missiles in all NATO countries and allies, 2 weeks of defensive missiles in GCC and Israel, and over 6 months left of offensive missiles and drones in Iran.

Every day this extends, costs USD $1B in military costs alone. Iran is getting pummeled, but so are Tel-Aviv and all US bases in the gulf. 2 US aircraft carriers damaged, rumours of a few sunk US Navy ships. One amphib assault ship dispatched, and now this morning another 3 are being deployed from US mainland. All to grab an oil terminal island by Kuwait - not even to open Hormuz. Oil is trading over $150/barrel in Asia, $112 in US, and rising.

$200 barrel by the end of the summer is now a near certainty. B U C K L E U P

[piedpiper]

If only Canada had more LNG export terminals ready and the shit was being pulled out of the ground with haste. We could take huge advantage of this right now, but the weak leadership for the last 10 years on this topic says otherwise.

[TG]

If only Canada had more LNG export terminals ready and the shit was being pulled out of the ground with haste. We could take huge advantage of this right now, but the weak leadership for the last 10 years on this topic says otherwise.

Yeah, well…
“Strong” leadership can lead to chaos as demonstrated by Trump

The trick probably lies somewhere in the middle.

[BigQ]

Leadership by vibes?

[goldeneagle]

If only Canada had more LNG export terminals ready and the shit was being pulled out of the ground with haste. We could take huge advantage of this right now, but the weak leadership for the last 10 years on this topic says otherwise.

ofc it's easy to blame 'leadership' when you dont know what the real factors are / were.

FYI, the LNG plant in Kitimat is running full steam. Some of the other plants that have been proposed, for the most part, never got past the proposal stage because the economics dont make sense. Even with the current kafuffle in the middle east and a bunch of the Qatar sourced LNG now gone for some time, the price for LNG has not really moved significantly, unlike the price of oil. The reason, there is abundant supply still. A year ago, LNG was trading in the vicinity of 3.95, today it's in the vicinity of 3.10, and that is with the gulf supply essentially stopped for the short term, and roughly 20% of the gulf supply for the longer term if you tally up the strikes on the Iranian and Qatar facilities.

At these prices, it doesn't make sense to bring more supply on line, and other than a short period at the onset of the Ukraine war, it hasn't made economic sense for a long time.

So yes, you can go on blaming 'leadership', but the reality of why there isn't more LNG on the west coast is different. It's not there because none of the companies that deal with that market were willing to invest in a billion dollar plant that will provide yet more supply to a market already over supplied.

[pelmet]

If only Canada had more LNG export terminals ready and the shit was being pulled out of the ground with haste. We could take huge advantage of this right now, but the weak leadership for the last 10 years on this topic says otherwise.

ofc it's easy to blame 'leadership' when you dont know what the real factors are / were.

FYI, the LNG plant in Kitimat is running full steam. Some of the other plants that have been proposed, for the most part, never got past the proposal stage because the economics dont make sense. Even with the current kafuffle in the middle east and a bunch of the Qatar sourced LNG now gone for some time, the price for LNG has not really moved significantly, unlike the price of oil. The reason, there is abundant supply still. A year ago, LNG was trading in the vicinity of 3.95, today it's in the vicinity of 3.10, and that is with the gulf supply essentially stopped for the short term, and roughly 20% of the gulf supply for the longer term if you tally up the strikes on the Iranian and Qatar facilities.

At these prices, it doesn't make sense to bring more supply on line, and other than a short period at the onset of the Ukraine war, it hasn't made economic sense for a long time.

So yes, you can go on blaming 'leadership', but the reality of why there isn't more LNG on the west coast is different. It's not there because none of the companies that deal with that market were willing to invest in a billion dollar plant that will provide yet more supply to a market already over supplied.

With regard to gas prices not rising, perhaps looking at EU gas prices over the last month might enlighten one to reality versus US natgas prices. Even if gas prices are not skyrocketing yet like they did after the Ukraine invasion, Europe and others want reliable gas sources. That can been hundreds of thousands of jobs building the infrastructure for contracts of natural gas around the world. At a time when so few new good jobs are available, common sense conservative planning can massively help our economy, instead of letting the greenscammers continue to slowly impoverish you(many of whom made their now safe life investment pumping out carbon) over the last decade, the Trudeau government missed countless opportunities to reduce Canada’s heavy reliance on the United States and instead introduced regulatory hurdles that hindered our energy sector and limited access to new markets. To unleash Canada’s oil and gas sector, the next government must reverse a whole set of harmful energy policies.

For example, the Northern Gateway pipeline designed to transport crude oil from Alberta to British Columbia’s coast. In 2016, one year after taking office, the Trudeau government cancelled this previously approved $7.9 billion project, which would have greatly expanded Canada’s access to Asian markets.

Then there’s the Energy East and Eastern Mainline pipelines from Alberta and Saskatchewan to the east coast. The Trudeau government effectively made the project economically unfeasible by introducing new regulatory hurdles, ultimately forcing the TransCanada energy company to withdraw from the project, which would have expanded access to European markets.

The record is equally bleak for liquified natural gas (LNG) export facilities, which could open access to overseas markets. Regulatory barriers and long approval timelines under the Trudeau government significantly hindered the development of the Énergie Saguenay LNG project in Quebec, the Repsol LNG plant in New Brunswick and the Pacific NorthWest LNG facility in B.C.

"....and when opportunity knocked to diversify our trading partners, the government failed to seize it. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, political leaders from Latvia, Ukraine, Germany, Greece and Poland turned to Canada seeking new LNG supply, but Trudeau insisted there was “no business case for LNG” and missed the chance to open new markets.

Finally, the Trudeau government's Bill C-69 created massive uncertainty in project reviews and approvals by introducing vague assessment criteria including "gender implications" for major energy projects including pipelines and LNG export facilities. In fact, according to a recent report, which analyzed 25 major projects that entered the federal government’s review process between 2019 and 2023, almost every project submission remained stuck in the early stages (phase 1 or 2) of the four-phase process, underscoring the inefficiency of the review process.

Meanwhile, the Trudeau government’s Bill C-48 restricts Canadian exports to Asia by banning large oil tankers from B.C.'s northern coast. And its targeted emissions cap, which requires only the oil and gas sector to cut greenhouse gases by 35 per cent below 2019 levels by 2030, is designed to curtail energy production, further limiting Canada’s ability to meet global energy demands."

By the way....intelligent people know that the wisest time to invest in oil and natural gas energy is when prices are low. Usually, that is when construction costs are low(due to excess manpower because prices are low in a recession) and when the projects come on-line, there is a much higher likelihood of prices being at a cyclical high.

[piedpiper]

https://www.uniper.energy/news/germanys ... -operation

9 months from planning to fully operational LNG terminal in Germany.

One could only DREAM of something like that in Canada. Sure we have Kitimat now. How many years did that take again?

[Eric Janson]

https://www.uniper.energy/news/germanys ... -operation

9 months from planning to fully operational LNG terminal in Germany.

One could only DREAM of something like that in Canada. Sure we have Kitimat now. How many years did that take again?

The same country that closed its Nuclear Power Plants - Economic suicide imho.

[pelmet]

The same country that closed its Nuclear Power Plants - Economic suicide imho.

That is what the greenscammers represent. Many of them are naive fools with no concept of reality that are being led down the garden path of economic suicide by a smaller percentage of intentionally malicious actors with an unmentioned, separate agenda.

[‘Bob’]

Oil and gas receives FOUR TIMES as many subsidies as renewable energy worldwide.

We have seen 50-60 cent jumps at the pump for gas that was entirely made out of Canadian crude refined in Canada.

Whats the scam again?

Can’t wait to take advantage of the EV rebate this year.

[lostav8r]

The same country that closed its Nuclear Power Plants - Economic suicide imho.

That is what the greenscammers represent. Many of them are naive fools with no concept of reality that are being led down the garden path of economic suicide by a smaller percentage of intentionally malicious actors with an unmentioned, separate agenda.

The reason they got rid of Nuclear was they didn't feel confident in the whole storage situation. They assumed natural gas was a safe bet as even in the height of the cold war the Russians didn't mess around with their natural gas contracts, so why would Putin do anything differently?

[goldeneagle]

https://www.uniper.energy/news/germanys ... -operation

9 months from planning to fully operational LNG terminal in Germany.

One could only DREAM of something like that in Canada. Sure we have Kitimat now. How many years did that take again?

You are confusing an offload terminal, with one that liquifies and loads LNG. There is a world of difference. Just look at the one in Qatar that was recently hit, they say it'll take 5 years to repair, and that's in an area that has no environmental rules at all

[piedpiper]

Fair enough I don't know much about LNG.

That said even on that note, we can still do much better when it comes to fast tracking major public projects. We allow too many individual groups and lobbies too much power in Canada. There needs to be a balance of doing the proper studies, but also not dragging things out and letting certain groups stop/hold up progress because we are too worried as a country/government of the optics.

Energy East is a perfect example of this. There are ways for the Canadian Government to force it through Quebec, but no one is willing to be the one to make it happen. Even (off topic ish) the Indian Act falls under this type of issue. It is long overdue to be ammended or removed but no politician is going to be the one to committ political suicide.

[‘Bob’]

Fair enough I don't know much about LNG.

That said even on that note, we can still do much better when it comes to fast tracking major public projects. We allow too many individual groups and lobbies too much power in Canada. There needs to be a balance of doing the proper studies, but also not dragging things out and letting certain groups stop/hold up progress because we are too worried as a country/government of the optics.

Energy East is a perfect example of this. There are ways for the Canadian Government to force it through Quebec, but no one is willing to be the one to make it happen. Even (off topic ish) the Indian Act falls under this type of issue. It is long overdue to be ammended or removed but no politician is going to be the one to committ political suicide.

Well it’s all about those pesky barriers to federalism.

Same ones that allow Alberta to keep oil and gas wealth that other provinces don’t benefit from (and if you say equalization, you failed your social studies classes) rather than Canada nationalizing it like it probably should.

[Eric Janson]

Don't be Australia.

This is what happens when you elect useless people to represent you over and over again.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... uel-crisis

[pelmet]

Oil and gas receives FOUR TIMES as many subsidies as renewable energy worldwide.

While not a direct response to your claim, I suspect that Bob is once again.....making a fraud argument:

"From a tax perspective, opponents of the oil and gas industry often claim that the sector receives subsidies that should be stopped. That is a convenient misunderstanding of how Canada’s tax system works.

The commonly cited provisions — Canadian Exploration Expense, Canadian Development Expense and Canadian Oil and Gas Property Expense — are not government handouts. To benefit from these deductions, companies must first incur cash outlays on qualifying activities such as exploration, development or property acquisition. The tax rules then allow these companies to recover portions of their costs through calculated deductions.

To be clear, these deductions do not exempt companies from paying tax on their profits; they are simply timing differences, not transfers of government funds.

The ability to deduct legitimate business expenses is not unique to the oil and gas industry; it is a fundamental principle of the Canadian tax system that applies to all businesses: they must be incurred for the purpose of gaining or producing income, must be reasonable in the circumstances and not be personal or capital in nature.

Singling out oil and gas companies for criticism is a selective narrative, not a principled tax policy argument.

Tax policy shapes behaviour in very real ways. Governments introducing uncertainty, complexity or targeted hostility are met by investors quietly delaying decisions or moving capital elsewhere.

One example is the layering of an industrial carbon tax on top of an already high-cost, highly regulated industry. Oil is a globally traded commodity priced on global supply and demand, not on the carbon intensity of a particular barrel. Is there a premium market for decarbonized oil? No."

https://financialpost.com/commodities/e ... tax-breaks

"AI Overview
Canada offers substantial green energy tax subsidies, primarily through refundable Clean Economy Investment Tax Credits (ITCs), including a 30% credit for clean technology (solar, wind, storage) and up to 40% for hydrogen. These credits, along with accelerated depreciation (CCA), aim to boost net-zero investments, requiring specific labour standards.

Key Federal Green Tax Incentives (2024–2034)
- Clean Technology ITC: 30% refundable tax credit on capital costs for renewable energy (wind, solar, water), stationary storage, and heat pumps, available until 2033 (reducing in 2034).
- Clean Hydrogen ITC: Up to 40% for investments in clean hydrogen production.
- Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) ITC: Up to 60% for direct air capture and 37.5% for transport/storage.
- Clean Technology Manufacturing ITC: 30% for manufacturing equipment related to clean tech, including critical minerals.
- Accelerated Capital Cost Allowance (CCA): Classes 43.1 and 43.2 allow for faster depreciation (up to 100% in the first year) on qualifying clean energy equipment. "

[pelmet]

Just reading another article.It appears that you are being intentionally mislead by the people using oil subsidies as part of their argument(funny how in that argument, they follow it with a statement about waiting for their green subsidy).

"Today, our federal government, having earmarked up to $31.4 billion subsidizing Canada’s struggling electric vehicle sector — with another $21.1 billion coming from the provinces — is confronting the reality of U.S. President Donald Trump scrapping former president Joe Biden’s subsidies for the EV sector in the U.S."

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/politics ... r-AA1ZoKGj

[pelmet]

Fair enough I don't know much about LNG.

That said even on that note, we can still do much better when it comes to fast tracking major public projects. We allow too many individual groups and lobbies too much power in Canada. There needs to be a balance of doing the proper studies, but also not dragging things out and letting certain groups stop/hold up progress because we are too worried as a country/government of the optics.

Energy East is a perfect example of this. There are ways for the Canadian Government to force it through Quebec, but no one is willing to be the one to make it happen. Even (off topic ish) the Indian Act falls under this type of issue. It is long overdue to be ammended or removed but no politician is going to be the one to committ political suicide.

Well it’s all about those pesky barriers to federalism.

Same ones that allow Alberta to keep oil and gas wealth that other provinces don’t benefit from (and if you say equalization, you failed your social studies classes) rather than Canada nationalizing it like it probably should.

Why do these people lie?…..


https://mastermindquotes.com/quebec-tak ... pipelines/

[7ECA]

In the meantime, China continues to be a leader in carbon-free energy, while the US under Trump continues to deal with the price shocks of their Middle Eastern adventurism.

From the Council on Foreign Relations:

China’s blueprint for expanding its commanding lead in carbon-free energy sources sharply contrasts with the Trump administration’s short-sighted approach that relies on fossil fuels...

and

China’s national legislature has approved a blueprint for building on its commanding lead in the carbon-free energy sources that are increasingly vital worldwide as the climate warms. It sharply contrasts with the Trump administration’s short-sighted approach that relies on fossil fuels.

https://www.cfr.org/articles/china-is-p ... yNewsBrief