Air Canada: the numbers came back, but did the company?

[90210]

I wrote a long analysis on Air Canada after the Van der Werff announcement.

The basic idea is simple: Air Canada has rebuilt a lot since COVID. Revenue came back. Free cash flow came back. Buybacks came back. The network is operating again.

But the margin did not come back the same way.

In 2019, Air Canada kept about 8.6 cents of operating income for every dollar of revenue. In 2025, it kept about 4.1 cents.

To me, that gap is not only financial. It also shows up in labour relations, regional flying, pilot flow, Jazz, PAL, Porter, and the question of whether Air Canada Express still feels like part of the same airline.

The article looks at Rousseau, Rovinescu, Van der Werff, Jazz, Porter, the Deluce history, and the regional system underneath Air Canada.

Curious what people here think, especially on the pilot pipeline and regional side.

https://cundilldeepvalue.substack.com/p ... ck-the-83b

[flieslikeachicken]

Comparing the pre-Covid 2019 boom to the ElbowsUp era is not apples to apples.

Costs are way up but people are not spending as much, so it makes sense that the profit is down.

[350driver]

I wrote a long analysis on Air Canada after the Van der Werff announcement.

The basic idea is simple: Air Canada has rebuilt a lot since COVID. Revenue came back. Free cash flow came back. Buybacks came back. The network is operating again.

But the margin did not come back the same way.

In 2019, Air Canada kept about 8.6 cents of operating income for every dollar of revenue. In 2025, it kept about 4.1 cents.

To me, that gap is not only financial. It also shows up in labour relations, regional flying, pilot flow, Jazz, PAL, Porter, and the question of whether Air Canada Express still feels like part of the same airline.

The article looks at Rousseau, Rovinescu, Van der Werff, Jazz, Porter, the Deluce history, and the regional system underneath Air Canada.

Curious what people here think, especially on the pilot pipeline and regional side.

https://cundilldeepvalue.substack.com/p ... ck-the-83b

What a fantastic article this is. Great work.

How does everyone feel about the new CEO coming in?

[altiplano]

Simplistic.

There are many reasons Air Canada lags in those comparisons.

Lack of meaningful support during covid.
Poor planning and excessive operational layoffs in covid that still hasn't seen recovery.
They haven't rebuilt, they've ceded market share to domestic, US, and international competitors.
Key markets like YYC have seen service completely hollowed out.
They operate virtually every type: 220, 320, 330, 350, 737, 767, 787, 777...
Crown baggage, plus excess regulation, taxation, and interference from government.
Inept NavCanada and airport authorities with priorities outside if their core existence disproportionately drag on AC.
Then of course the Canadian economic decline, currency decline, political dysfunction.
And on and on...

Management has done a poor job over the last 5 years. I'm glad they brought from outside, but this guy has the aura of a stump and a background and track record as a henchman, 2 CEO positions, 2 bankruptcies, 2 gutted legacy brands, violated scope, slashed contracts.

I hope AC provides him a platform to do something else, maybe slash that legacy office staff and actually build an operation with immense possibility and a captured market. But that is likely wishful thinking... leopards/spots, frog/scorpion, etc. Probably Milton 2.0, new crisis incoming, spin off Rouge, Cargo, Aeroplan all over again... you know unlocking shareholder value. History repeats...

[mel gibson]

I read this the other day. Makes Sense…..$$$$$$$$


Brookfield Asset
Management is a primary stakeholder in the SAS
Group, holding a significant
32% stake through its control of the American investment fund, Castielake, L.P. This investment was finalized following SAS AB's successful exit from Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2024.

[FL030]

I can't help but feel we blew our chance.

[khedrei]

Simplistic.

There are many reasons Air Canada lags in those comparisons.

Lack of meaningful support during covid.
Poor planning and excessive operational layoffs in covid that still hasn't seen recovery.
They haven't rebuilt, they've ceded market share to domestic, US, and international competitors.
Key markets like YYC have seen service completely hollowed out.
They operate virtually every type: 220, 320, 330, 350, 737, 767, 787, 777...
Crown baggage, plus excess regulation, taxation, and interference from government.
Inept NavCanada and airport authorities with priorities outside if their core existence disproportionately drag on AC.
Then of course the Canadian economic decline, currency decline, political dysfunction.
And on and on...

Management has done a poor job over the last 5 years. I'm glad they brought from outside, but this guy has the aura of a stump and a background and track record as a henchman, 2 CEO positions, 2 bankruptcies, 2 gutted legacy brands, violated scope, slashed contracts.

I hope AC provides him a platform to do something else, maybe slash that legacy office staff and actually build an operation with immense possibility and a captured market. But that is likely wishful thinking... leopards/spots, frog/scorpion, etc. Probably Milton 2.0, new crisis incoming, spin off Rouge, Cargo, Aeroplan all over again... you know unlocking shareholder value. History repeats...

They dont have any 350's. But the rest sounds spot on.

[altiplano]

Simplistic.

There are many reasons Air Canada lags in those comparisons.

Lack of meaningful support during covid.
Poor planning and excessive operational layoffs in covid that still hasn't seen recovery.
They haven't rebuilt, they've ceded market share to domestic, US, and international competitors.
Key markets like YYC have seen service completely hollowed out.
They operate virtually every type: 220, 320, 330, 350, 737, 767, 787, 777...
Crown baggage, plus excess regulation, taxation, and interference from government.
Inept NavCanada and airport authorities with priorities outside if their core existence disproportionately drag on AC.
Then of course the Canadian economic decline, currency decline, political dysfunction.
And on and on...

Management has done a poor job over the last 5 years. I'm glad they brought from outside, but this guy has the aura of a stump and a background and track record as a henchman, 2 CEO positions, 2 bankruptcies, 2 gutted legacy brands, violated scope, slashed contracts.

I hope AC provides him a platform to do something else, maybe slash that legacy office staff and actually build an operation with immense possibility and a captured market. But that is likely wishful thinking... leopards/spots, frog/scorpion, etc. Probably Milton 2.0, new crisis incoming, spin off Rouge, Cargo, Aeroplan all over again... you know unlocking shareholder value. History repeats...

They dont have any 350's. But the rest sounds spot on.

The 350s are on order. Be here in a few years... another sim building expansion in the works to accommodated it.

[rudder]

Simplistic.

There are many reasons Air Canada lags in those comparisons.

Lack of meaningful support during covid.
Poor planning and excessive operational layoffs in covid that still hasn't seen recovery.
They haven't rebuilt, they've ceded market share to domestic, US, and international competitors.
Key markets like YYC have seen service completely hollowed out.
They operate virtually every type: 220, 320, 330, 350, 737, 767, 787, 777...
Crown baggage, plus excess regulation, taxation, and interference from government.
Inept NavCanada and airport authorities with priorities outside if their core existence disproportionately drag on AC.
Then of course the Canadian economic decline, currency decline, political dysfunction.
And on and on...

Management has done a poor job over the last 5 years. I'm glad they brought from outside, but this guy has the aura of a stump and a background and track record as a henchman, 2 CEO positions, 2 bankruptcies, 2 gutted legacy brands, violated scope, slashed contracts.

I hope AC provides him a platform to do something else, maybe slash that legacy office staff and actually build an operation with immense possibility and a captured market. But that is likely wishful thinking... leopards/spots, frog/scorpion, etc. Probably Milton 2.0, new crisis incoming, spin off Rouge, Cargo, Aeroplan all over again... you know unlocking shareholder value. History repeats...

They dont have any 350's. But the rest sounds spot on.

The 350s are on order. Be here in a few years... another sim building expansion in the works to accommodated it.

Plus Jazz is moving to the AC side of CAE YYZ. Already in the AC SIM building in YVR.

[Avcanada123]

Simplistic.

There are many reasons Air Canada lags in those comparisons.

Lack of meaningful support during covid.
Poor planning and excessive operational layoffs in covid that still hasn't seen recovery.
They haven't rebuilt, they've ceded market share to domestic, US, and international competitors.
Key markets like YYC have seen service completely hollowed out.
They operate virtually every type: 220, 320, 330, 350, 737, 767, 787, 777...
Crown baggage, plus excess regulation, taxation, and interference from government.
Inept NavCanada and airport authorities with priorities outside if their core existence disproportionately drag on AC.
Then of course the Canadian economic decline, currency decline, political dysfunction.
And on and on...

Management has done a poor job over the last 5 years. I'm glad they brought from outside, but this guy has the aura of a stump and a background and track record as a henchman, 2 CEO positions, 2 bankruptcies, 2 gutted legacy brands, violated scope, slashed contracts.

I hope AC provides him a platform to do something else, maybe slash that legacy office staff and actually build an operation with immense possibility and a captured market. But that is likely wishful thinking... leopards/spots, frog/scorpion, etc. Probably Milton 2.0, new crisis incoming, spin off Rouge, Cargo, Aeroplan all over again... you know unlocking shareholder value. History repeats...

They dont have any 350's. But the rest sounds spot on.

The 350s are on order. Be here in a few years... another sim building expansion in the works to accommodated it.

Sim expansion where? Yyz? Any other cities getting the expansion?