Whats the deal with the western bases?

KAG · Post by **KAG** » Mon Dec 19, 2005 1:52 pm

If I was offered Jazz and I got a YYC base would I be stuck rotting on a reserve block for years or would I be able to hold a block in short time? Is it even a good idea to look at the western bases in terms of flying or should one look east for faster company advancement?

Also, there are rummors abound about fast upgrades (2-3 years) if the expansion happens as planned? how can that be, wouldn't the company have to double in pilot numbers for that to happen?

Is there any chance that this expansion could be reduced or cancelled all together down the road? Im just wondering about stability as Jazz does have a habbit of hiring and laying off.

Cheers.

cyyz · Post by **cyyz** » Mon Dec 19, 2005 3:00 pm

King Air Guy wrote:Is there any chance that this expansion could be reduced or cancelled all together down the road?

Im just wondering about stability as Jazz does have a habbit of hiring and laying off.

You just answered your own question.

Bede · Post by **Bede** » Mon Dec 19, 2005 3:27 pm

I wouldn't hold my breath for the fast upgrades. I asked about this and got laughed at.

KAG · Post by **KAG** » Mon Dec 19, 2005 7:53 pm

thought so, but what about the western bases? Perminent reserve or will you actually get a block.

Canus Chinookus · Post by **Canus Chinookus** » Mon Dec 19, 2005 7:59 pm

how about counting the baby boomers at each base?!

giligan · Post by **giligan** » Tue Dec 20, 2005 12:11 am

Do they have a habit of hiring and laying off? Does the last down turn count as they found themselves merging 4 companies overnight?

If you do the math, very optimistically. They are set to hire 250 in the next 6 months. On the last 2 AC courses there was I believe 4 and 7 Jazz guys (an average of 5.5 per month). So taking just that alone and saying they have 1500 ish pilots now here goes.

In 2 years they will have hired 1000 pilots and lost 132 to mainline so that is 2368 pilots. Not counting any attrition and only 5 per month to mainline. So in that world number 1200 would be Captain in 2 years.

I think it is plausible if Jazz and Mainline keep hiring AT THE RATE THEY ARE NOW for 2 years that 2 to 3 year upgrades could happen but that said, I don't think it will. I don't know the expansion plans for ACE and how Jazz fits in but that is a lot of expansion.

From what I understand the next 250 will just fill the empty spots now. Does anyone have any insight into expansion or will this all trickle off in a year or so?
giligan

pilotbzh · Post by **pilotbzh** » Tue Dec 20, 2005 5:27 am

1389 pilots @ Jazz as per 15 dec... most junior capt as a seniority of 907.
I'm a new hire and my seniority went up 7 numbers in the last month. for a total of about 35 in 4 month.

Kosiw · Post by **Kosiw** » Tue Dec 20, 2005 6:17 am

How are you guys finding living in Toronto on first year wages....there must be stories of creative ways of making a go of it in the Big Smoke.

balls · Post by **balls** » Tue Dec 20, 2005 8:55 am

giligan wrote:Do they have a habit of hiring and laying off? Does the last down turn count as they found themselves merging 4 companies overnight?

If you do the math, very optimistically. They are set to hire 250 in the next 6 months. On the last 2 AC courses there was I believe 4 and 7 Jazz guys (an average of 5.5 per month). So taking just that alone and saying they have 1500 ish pilots now here goes.

In 2 years they will have hired 1000 pilots and lost 132 to mainline so that is 2368 pilots. Not counting any attrition and only 5 per month to mainline. So in that world number 1200 would be Captain in 2 years.

I think it is plausible if Jazz and Mainline keep hiring AT THE RATE THEY ARE NOW for 2 years that 2 to 3 year upgrades could happen but that said, I don't think it will. I don't know the expansion plans for ACE and how Jazz fits in but that is a lot of expansion.

From what I understand the next 250 will just fill the empty spots now. Does anyone have any insight into expansion or will this all trickle off in a year or so?
giligan

Always remember that aviation is cyclical. When things look the best, prepare for the downturn. We are still on the way up - for now - but it is not a straight line, so some of your assumptions don't work. Lots of flying schools are closing, too costly to learn, the return is not there as the money is not in the industry any more, so the pool of pilots is shrinking I believe. That, in the end may force the cyclical nature of the pay, and pilot status, advancement ahead faster than anything else, imo.

When you hear 20 year old flight attendants talk about their stock portfolios, get out of the market -- or when you hear them say something stupid like "oh good, only 5 people on this flight", you know that they have never seen the downturn, prepare yourself - and they will be the ones crying about furlough within 6 months or less.

giligan · Post by **giligan** » Tue Dec 20, 2005 10:52 pm

I realize they don't work. That is just the numbers as they are today given what has happened in the last couple of months and yes if expansion keeps up at this rate fast upgrades will happen. I've been driving the same aircraft for coming up 6 years, I was fortunate not to get laid off. It's a tough decision to move on into "greener pastures" when the market you serve now is 99 % non-dependant on the economy.
Is avian flu a reality in Canada? Or, will Jazz be getting all the domestic routes... Who is to say. but its nice to finally see some movement.

PS. Anyone have any insight on KAG's post re holding a block in YYC / YVR.
giligan
Happy non-denominational winter season - SNL

Dizzy · Post by **Dizzy** » Wed Dec 21, 2005 6:16 am

Without consulting a phsycic, I'd say you'll probably be sitting on reserve at YYC. I haven't seen what the new bid says for out west, but the last bid had most of the expansion at Toronto, and then Montreal. There's a rumour the next bid might have more western expansion, but who knows for certain?

mattski52 · Post by **mattski52** » Mon Dec 26, 2005 11:47 am

Hey KAG, whats wrong with reserve anyway???? I heard yesterday that the bid coming up in Jan should have plenty of expansion out west, probably mostly CRJ flying but I know there is long term plans for expansion in the west...I heard that right from the big guys mouth. Hows things anyway?? Give me a call if you want.

Matt

KAG · Post by **KAG** » Thu Dec 29, 2005 9:06 pm

Sounds good. Any idea how many spots are still available in YYC?
Did the medecal today, hope to hear soon.

Cheers.

motherfokker · Post by **motherfokker** » Fri Dec 30, 2005 8:00 pm

There's no equip/base bid for Jan but I think there will probably be about another dozen slots open up in yyc in March /April.

TeeKay · Post by **TeeKay** » Tue Jan 03, 2006 9:54 am

MotherF-

Curious wht "Category" rumour this is about more YYC Jazz slots opening up. Any more info would be appreciated.

motherfokker · Post by **motherfokker** » Tue Jan 03, 2006 11:01 am

We'll see in Feb, right now it's probably low/or magenta as the US state dep says.
But there's many reasons to justify expanding the YYC and YVR bases, new routes and the us-air deal down South. And of course sticking it to our good buddies Spyjet in their back yard.

TeeKay · Post by **TeeKay** » Tue Jan 03, 2006 9:25 pm

MotherF-

Thank you for the heads-up

So, can anybody fill me in on the "us-air deal down South"? I suppose I can look it up, but tonite I am just too lazy...

flyer 1492 · Post by **flyer 1492** » Tue Jan 03, 2006 10:32 pm

TeeKay,

When Milton invested 75 millon in the US Air/ America West merger he negotiated that ACE would be able to do some flying for the NEW company. Jazz has first choice on the flying being offered. It remains to be seen what will come of it. We will probally know more after Jazz's IPO comes out some time this month.

Flyer

Whats the deal with the western bases?

Whats the deal with the western bases?

Re: Whats the deal with the western bases?