Is the music stopping?

[intel]

Is it time to grab a good seat now?

Judging from the slowdown of jobs on this website, I think the music is slowly stopping!!!
or is it just a slow month in February?

what would be considered a good seat to grab if the economy goes pearshaped?

any opinions from the armchair gang?

[Four1oh]

not stopping, but maybe changing once again to a slow dance.

[ScudRunner]

Im going to hold my official opinion until March, Febuary is typicaly slower but I assume as Jazz calls more people for interviews and evals here in Febuary. Pilots will be moving on in March, combine that with the typical hiring for the seasonal jobs and then you'll have your answer.

But If I had to guess just a lull before a storm.

[Four1oh]

if there is a shit-storm, the saving grace will be demographics, once again, with the retirements en masse of the baby boomers.

[SQ]

Judging from the slowdown of jobs on this website, I think the music is slowly stopping!!!
or is it just a slow month in February?:

no its not
just seasonal slow down it seems, and kee applying

[Kelowna Pilot]

Well, I'm a big believer in cycles.

That said, for pilot hiring it will be interesting to see to what extent retiring baby boomers have in offsetting the economic catastrophe that is unfolding in the United States right now.

Canada generally lags a year or two behind the US, so things might be okay for a bit yet.

But no one really knows for sure.

[Cat Driver]

The US may hang in financially until after the election.

[intel]

So jazz is still hiring..

Thats good to hear. So jazz might just be the saviour for us for a while then.

will that mean layoffs with certain companies when the s@#t hits the fan at full speed.
or will they just stop hiring?

Cat why will the economy go down hill after the election?
didnt bush do enough damage to the US?
A different President might make things better for the world!!

[Uncle Leo]

Not only is the music stopping, but I have major hemmorhoids and would prefer not sit down at the moment.

Jazz looks like an uncomfortable chair anyway.

[Cat Driver]

I think the Republicans will keep throwing money at the problem in a vain attempt to get re-elected.

But I don't think the economy will go anywhere but down...Hope I'm wrong.

[Northern Skies]

In my little corner of the industry, I think it's absolutely Booming. I have never seen so many float ads this early in the season...... I remember maybe one or two for otter drivers or something coming out in January, but people looking for Beaver and 185 guys en masse at this time of year? I never noticed that. It was never until March. I had to hurry to get all of my info updated just to keep up! Here's my point of view, if anyone cares to compare:
_______________
2005: Sent out about 90 applications. Drove an 8000km road trip from YQT to follow up in person to about 40 of them. Eventually came up with one offer, for a pretty hardcore dockhand job. Either I've grown accustomed to it now, or that summer was the toughest 5 months of my life. I think only 2 of them were advertising, those were the scheduled interviews. Sealed the deal in early april.

2006: Tried 40-50 float operators, 3 or 4 had postings up. Insurance mins were high everywhere. Ended up on a 206 on wheels, I showed up in a plane to apply in person and had time on type. The offer came in April.

2007: Mailed packages out to 30 operators for entry-level float work, phone follow-ups for all. There were about 8 with postings, this was all in March. Had 6 offers, most were for dock/part-time 180 or 185. Ended up getting one that was to fly full time, had room/board, and a decent salary and cool boss. Would definitely go back, but I'd love a Beaver and they don't have one. Sealed the deal mid-march.

2008: Shocked to see all the ads. Scrambled to throw a few emails together. Sent 13 emails out, 12 of which are for Beaver jobs. They all have posts up on avcanada. No follow-ups as yet and there are already inquiries coming back right away, all from good reputable operations with bigger planes for many subsequent seasons. Nice! I'ts definitely a pilot's market, but I'm not going to blow it by being cocky.
________________
Yeah I know I'm more marketable now, etc, even though I'd say I'm still a low-timer....... but this seems disproportionate. From my point of view, the music is at full volume. Perhaps it's slowing down for the higher tier of jobs, but the movement has finally filtered down to my level. This also may be because floats are less feasible to start out in now than before, with all the insurance requirements for entry-level positions that did not exist previously. Perhaps the hiring pool is smaller due to that. I think there are less float drivers out there who are just "putting in their dues for a while" to move up, and more of us are the ones who want to do it.

But like was said before, unless pilot jobs become like alberta trucker jobs or doctor jobs, I would never say there is a pilot shortage! There is just a reduction of surplus candidates.

[Kelowna Pilot]

Cat's assessment is right.

Instead of letting the economy take a natural dip (recessions are a very natural part of the cycle), the Fed is denying reality and trying vainly to stop history by throwing band-aids at the problem, which ultimately will just make the fall all that much harder.

See here:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/30/news/in ... /index.htm

As for pilot hiring, ask the old-timers on the board who have lived through the cycles... what historically happens to pilots during recessions? It's rarely pretty.

[alpha1]

Jim Rogers (see the CNN link above provided by Kelowna Pilot) is an investing genius. If he were a pilot, he'd be Billy Bishop, Bob Hoover, Neil Armstrong, Sean D. Tucker et al....all rolled up into one. The man is unbelievably skilled and knowledgeable.

He says we're heading into the worst recession since WWII.

Look out below.

[Kelowna Pilot]

Actually Jim Rogers is probably more of a Cat driver: He's a bit of sh*t disturber who doesn't drink from anyone's Kool-Aid.

But he's one of the most wealthy, most successful investors in the world, so his words do count. He's not just some nutter.

He does however advocate investing in airlines in Asia... I don't quite know about that one...

[SQ]

good for you northern
allways good to hear positive things
what is your hours breakdonw please, we'll be abble to judge about non official requirements
thanks

[auto4]

I am mostly worried for the outfiter and float operator. the dollar being equal to the U.S. currency, I can see many americans staying home this year...

[Northern Skies]

Although it would definitely hurt, I'm not sure if a downturn would be extremely drastic on the float side, seeing how nearly all of their customers are multiple repeats. There are a great deal of fishermen who have used "x" cabin on "y" lake as their family cottage for the past 10, 15, even 25 years and although cost is an issue to them, most are going to keep coming if the raise in price is justified. The emotional factor skews the supply/demand curve a bit.

There are a large combination of factors hurting the fly-in fishing business. I talked to many people last summer who say they cannot return once the passport restrictions come into effect, because they can't get a passport. Fuel costs are another, you tend to burn a lot of gas when you're taking off that often. Insurance costs are incredible. When people tell me what they are paying to have me insured, it takes me a while to even believe it. Luckily a few things aren't causing problems ie. an R985 doen't cost much more than a 6cyl continental to have done over the winter.

I think it may be the final nail in the coffin for a company who is just hanging by a thread. Other lodges may park/sell the cessna or some other plane from their fleet, they're not the biggest money makers out there for someone who can put most of the camp checks into one big beaver run, and send two small groups out to adjacent lakes on the same run. If the fixed costs are relatively similar and the operating costs are directly proportionate to the payload, the larger one is more profitable. New guys starting out would have a very hard time. That wouldn't affect the hiring pool all that bad, because of the lack of pilot movement to the IFR side. The drivers who have been around for a while and are fairly happy where they are (considering the circumstances) wouldn't be in such a bad place for a recession, compared to some other parts of the industry.

Make sure you take my observations with a grain of salt, I just fly and don't run a business. Perhaps I don't know what i'm talking about.


to SQ: It's about 1000tt, 600 float. Low timer.

[Cat Driver]

SQ your analysis is fairly accurate.

[intel]

OK will that mean operators will put up Hiring Mins and new pilots will go back to working the Ramp for a year or two?

So this was anunblievable hiring cycle, It lasted for what 2 and a half years?
where employers just couldn't hold on to pilots due to AC and Jazz hiring. This will be a big sigh of relief, this downturn in a way.



what will be the magic number of hours to ensure that you get a look in for most jobs advertised on AvCanada.
Will someone who has 3000 hours, 1000 multi still be considered for most jobs out there?

[Kelowna Pilot]

This will be a big sigh of relief, this downturn in a way.

Economic downturns usually reek havok on the airline industry. I doubt the airlines are hoping for a downturn so they can simply retain pilots because retaining pilots will be the last of their problems.

If you want to know what the industry looks like in a downturn, read the history books and read old forum threads from the last downturn.

I remember when the downturn started in Canada after the Air Canada-Canadian merger, and then it came to a real head after 9-11.

You had instructors starving... instructors who were seriously underemployed... flying schools were closing down... people were leaving the industry en masse... you had guys "lurking" for long periods of time just so they could get a job on the ramp if they were lucky... guys paying to work (Jetsgo)... guys working for free...at the higher levels you had a pool of highly experienced pilots who just seemed to float from one failed start-up to the next (think Roots, Greyhound, etc) ...

There was always a little bit of movement here and there, but generally speaking it didn't matter how much time you had. Being related to the boss was more important. You could have Space Shuttle time, but if the movement stopped and there was no opening, you were stuck.

That's why the term "Feast and Famine" is used to describe the cycles of pilot hiring.

Sorry, you asked

[THEICEMAN]

Jim Rogers (see the CNN link above provided by Kelowna Pilot) is an investing genius. If he were a pilot, he'd be Billy Bishop, Bob Hoover, Neil Armstrong, Sean D. Tucker et al....all rolled up into one. The man is unbelievably skilled and knowledgeable.

He says we're heading into the worst recession since WWII.

Look out below.

Why does everybody think that a recession is imminent?
Jim Rodgers maybe very intelligent, but he is bear!

The Federal reserve only started dropping interest rates last summer. It always takes about a year for the market to adjust to monetary changes.

There will be a slow down in 2008.....that's for certain, but recession????

Craig Alaxenader, who is the Chief economist at TD, believes that the market should pick by the end of 2008.
http://biz.yahoo.com/cnw/071213/td_econ ... .html?.v=1

"The bottom line is that the Canadian economy is on the cusp of several quarters of weak economic growth, but conditions should improve once credit markets normalize and the U.S. housing correction has run its course," concluded Alexander."

The thought of recession may seem distressing to most of you, but remember that it is not for certain.
There is no need to panic & assume that the industry is gonna go south!

the Fed is denying reality and trying vainly to stop history by throwing band-aids at the problem, which ultimately will just make the fall all that much harder.

If your worried about inflation, we won't be facing that problem in Canada anytime soon! The big thing to worry about is, if our dollar keeps going up, then it will deter many U.S consumers away from Canadian markets in the east! The West......welll.....they'll be ok swimmin in tar oil

[Kelowna Pilot]

The thought of recession may seem distressing to most of you, but remember that it is not for certain.

Jim Rogers and anyone who does not have a vested interest in selling stocks, real estate, flight training, or whatever, would say that we've regularly had recessions every 6 or 7 years for the last 1000 years.

The point is that recessions are natural, we've always had them and always will, and in many ways they're even good things.

Jim Rogers would also say that to try to delay a recession (which is what the US is trying to do), will only make the recession that much worse.

It's like a forest fire in a way.... the forest gets burnt down, some homes get lost (not nice things), but forest fires are good for the soil, so you can get new, healthier trees growing in place of the old trees, and people can build new, better houses.

Recessions are not 100 percent bad things.

As for Alberta: Who knows. Alberta will probably fair better than the other provinces... but it's anyone's guess. Alberta has had two bust cycles before, so it's not like it can't happen again.

[THEICEMAN]

whatever, would say that we've regularly had recessions every 6 or 7 years for the last 1000 years.

If your referring to the 8 year Business cycle....technically we are not there yet. Since the last recession, the economy started to pick up around 2003/2004......so we would need a couple of years.
Though....9/11 has changed things! It created a deeper recession then anticipated, 7 years ago.
Check out the link below for more info:
http://www.angelfire.com/or/truthfinder/index4.html

If you want to talk about cycles, what about the Kondratieff cycle. He predicted that every 60 years, there would be a big market crash! He even predicted the market crash of 1929, 1843 & 1790. Are we not due for one? Or has the world changed?
http://www.angelfire.com/or/truthfinder/index22.html

every 6 or 7 years for the last 1000 years.

That's not true! The Business cycle has been a recent trend since WWII. After the crash of 1929, government intervention (through fiscal & monetary methods) has played a big role in the economy. The keynesian theory of spending during times of recession & saving during a boom, has brought stability to the markets. This was not the case before 1929.
Also, we haven't been recording this info for a 1000 years. We only started in the mid 15th century.

[Kelowna Pilot]

That's not true! The Business cycle has been a recent trend since WWII.

What!

Recessions been have recorded as far back as ancient Roman times.

Here's a list of recessions in recent times:


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recession

As mentioned, recessions are not necessarily a bad thing. If you have lots of cash you can make a lot of money. It's the wage-slave class who gets hurt the most unfortunately, which is usually the way it goes.

[Northern Skies]

recessions every 6 or 7 years for the last 1000 years.

I know you're trying to get a point across and I'm sorry to nitpick here, but if there was a cycle of anything in the past, it would have been over a far longer scale than today. It also would have been localized.

Information simply did not move at a real rate back then. What we can find out in seconds, it took people years to communicate, and even that information was not disseminated en masse. There is more information in a single modern newspaper than the amount of info someone would be fed in their entire lives 600 years ago.