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[jetflightinstructor]

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[Epsilon]

The future of the aviation industry is hard to predict. We can only hope the economic slowdown does not affect the current pilot shortage.

[jetflightinstructor]

*

[North Shore]

At the beginning of every decade that I can remember: 70's, 80's, 90's, 00's (also the 60's from what I've been told) there has been a recession and there have been either layoffs or hiring freezes.

Add into the mix the ramifications of 'Peak Oil', possible outcomes of Greenhouse gas reduction strategies, and the huge financial hole that our friends down south have dug for themselves.... what makes you think that the 10's will be any different than the past decades?

Hope for the best, and plan for the worst.

[LuckyPilot]

Northshore,your bang on! In my 30 odd years in this business, I've seen time and time again. The first half of the decade is in the toilet, and the second is great. Over the decades, retirements and expansion seem to occur at the same time. Even I will admit there is a bit of a difference this time around, for AC we have enough retirements for the future not to have to let people go, things may stagnant for the next two or three years as far as movement, but laying off pilots is not in the cards. They have a hard enough time keeping the staffing levels up as it is. Just an experienced observation, hardly scientific.

[Stinky]

I think the economy will collapse next October, we'll see layoffs start no later than February. Most will never be called back and thousands of airplanes will be mothballed forever.

We can bring this thread back at that time and you can all tell me what a genious I was for predicting it, hopefully we'll still have the internet then.

[wanderer]

I think that despite the economy is slowing down, the aviation field will continue to expand.

This slow down is not to be compared with the last one (11-2001).

What do you think?

I think you're being somewhat optimistic.

Historically, economic slow-downs affect the transportation sector more than other industries. A decrease in trucking activity is looked at as one of the first real indicators of a slow-down in action. Conversely, an increase in trucking activity is one of the first indications of economic recovery.

Aviation has many different segments. Some of which (northern travel, medevac, government) will be unaffected by an economic downturn, but most (cargo, passenger, corporate) will be negatively affected.

During the initial stages of a national or global recession, discretionary spending is immediately affected. Households and business go into conservation mode. Kind of like a squirrel hoarding nuts at the end of the bountiful summertime in anticipation of a long and cold winter, the participants in the economy will curtail spending so as to maintain cash reserves during the upcoming dry season. In terms of aviation, this means that you're going to think twice before committing to next winter's Mexican vacation or going to visit the in-laws this summer. It also means that the sales and marketing trip might get put off because your client is concerned that because the Q2 results are expected to be down, the Q3 expansion will be put on hold. As the recession actually does take hold of the economy, GDP and production are down and companies lay off employees. Sales and manufacturing slump. Transportation continues to be faced with less cargo and passengers. Less demand = fewer flights. Fewer flight = ? yup, fewer pilots.

Eventually (months? years later?), the economy begins to turn itself around and slowly business takes hold and those who are willing to stick their necks out and take a risk will do well. It will be a slow process that takes a number of months before everyone (the national workforce) returns to production. The nation will still be somewhat gun shy about engaging in discretionary spending again. Therefore while aviation will be one of the first industries to be affected by a recession, it will also be one of the last to recover.

The good news - you might not have to see the inlaws for a couple of years.

Economic slowdowns are a typical part of the business cycle. 9/11 was a different event. It certainly affected aviation, but the economy as a whole was not widely hit. It has been quite some time since the last recession. Just about a generation. It does seem that it is about to happen. Pilots may see the affects mitigated to some extent if they have a few hours under their belts due to attrition at Air Canada. I believe that less experienced pilots will find advancement more difficult than 3-4000 hour pilots.

[Rubberbiscuit]

I think the economy will collapse next October, we'll see layoffs start no later than February. Most will never be called back and thousands of airplanes will be mothballed forever.

We can bring this thread back at that time and you can all tell me what a genious I was for predicting it, hopefully we'll still have the internet then.

Wow! Isn't that a positive outlook!? You know.... if we sit around and wait long enough mother earth is bound to get hit by a giant asteroid and we will all be extinct. I do agree however that the North American economy is in a very unpredictable state right now. That said, in places like China and India the economy is stronger and growing faster than ever. The world economy does no longer revolve solely around the U.S of A. I would not want to be a junior airline pilot in the states right now but the aviation industry is thriving and I predict it will continue to thrive and grow fast in many other parts of the world.

[Alex YCV]

Canada is pretty luck at this point to have an economy that is churning hard on oil and other natural resources. With a push to reduce greenhouse gasses and such, it won't be surprising if one or more hydro electric projects end up in progress within a couple of years, and the continued demand for resources will keep things moving in the north.

A "made in America" recession isn't all bad. With the shift of the US / Canadian exchange rate, it is much cheaper now for Canadians to vacation in the US. It is also cheaper to buy things from the US, which means the cargo levels are going up. Things that use to have a 50% premium because of the exchange rate are now good bargains (as an example, even with shipping costs, it is still 10 - 20% cheaper to buy tires for my car in the US than it is to get them at my local dealer).

The January 2008 NavCan report shows an increase in movements of about 10% over the same month last year, so there continues to be a strong demand for air services.

[THEICEMAN]

I think the economy will collapse next October, we'll see layoffs start no later than February. Most will never be called back and thousands of airplanes will be mothballed forever.

That's the same panic attitude that causes crashes. As the economy takes a slight downturn, Panic! Panic! Panic!

Relax, have a drink! The economy will be just fine in the long run.

[Hoov]

Canada is pretty luck at this point to have an economy that is churning hard on oil and other natural resources. With a push to reduce greenhouse gasses and such, it won't be surprising if one or more hydro electric projects end up in progress within a couple of years, and the continued demand for resources will keep things moving in the north.

A "made in America" recession isn't all bad. With the shift of the US / Canadian exchange rate, it is much cheaper now for Canadians to vacation in the US. It is also cheaper to buy things from the US, which means the cargo levels are going up. Things that use to have a 50% premium because of the exchange rate are now good bargains (as an example, even with shipping costs, it is still 10 - 20% cheaper to buy tires for my car in the US than it is to get them at my local dealer).

The January 2008 NavCan report shows an increase in movements of about 10% over the same month last year, so there continues to be a strong demand for air services.

I do hope you buy local whenever you can though.

[North Shore]

The economy will be just fine in the long run.

Perhaps. I always wonder how the economists explain away the logical impossibility of continued, sustained growth in a finite system, though?

[V2-OMG!]

I tend to think of economics as the romance of the truth through measurement.

A couple of days ago I was listening to a Professor Anthony Pearl from Simon Fraser University who predicted some "romantic" prophesies about the aviation industry. For example:
the airline industry will digress back to our parents or grandparents time - an elitist mode of travel because of the scarcity of fossil fuels - and predicted the return of the dirigible! Oh, the humanity.

[Alex YCV]

Canada is pretty luck at this point to have an economy that is churning hard on oil and other natural resources. With a push to reduce greenhouse gasses and such, it won't be surprising if one or more hydro electric projects end up in progress within a couple of years, and the continued demand for resources will keep things moving in the north.

A "made in America" recession isn't all bad. With the shift of the US / Canadian exchange rate, it is much cheaper now for Canadians to vacation in the US. It is also cheaper to buy things from the US, which means the cargo levels are going up. Things that use to have a 50% premium because of the exchange rate are now good bargains (as an example, even with shipping costs, it is still 10 - 20% cheaper to buy tires for my car in the US than it is to get them at my local dealer).

The January 2008 NavCan report shows an increase in movements of about 10% over the same month last year, so there continues to be a strong demand for air services.

I do hope you buy local whenever you can though.

Yes, but I don't buy local at a large premium. When I am looking at a car tire that is retail price in Canada around $300 a piece being listed in the US at $175, it makes it hard to be a homer. A few dollars won't kill me, but on a set of four the money is significant to my personal bottom line

[Hoov]

Canada is pretty luck at this point to have an economy that is churning hard on oil and other natural resources. With a push to reduce greenhouse gasses and such, it won't be surprising if one or more hydro electric projects end up in progress within a couple of years, and the continued demand for resources will keep things moving in the north.

A "made in America" recession isn't all bad. With the shift of the US / Canadian exchange rate, it is much cheaper now for Canadians to vacation in the US. It is also cheaper to buy things from the US, which means the cargo levels are going up. Things that use to have a 50% premium because of the exchange rate are now good bargains (as an example, even with shipping costs, it is still 10 - 20% cheaper to buy tires for my car in the US than it is to get them at my local dealer).

The January 2008 NavCan report shows an increase in movements of about 10% over the same month last year, so there continues to be a strong demand for air services.

I do hope you buy local whenever you can though.

Yes, but I don't buy local at a large premium. When I am looking at a car tire that is retail price in Canada around $300 a piece being listed in the US at $175, it makes it hard to be a homer. A few dollars won't kill me, but on a set of four the money is significant to my personal bottom line

No I wouldnt expect you to, I just cant stand people that will shop over the border to save 2 or 3 dollars.

['effin hippie]

North Shore, I'll bite.

The physical system we live in is finite, yes, but growth is also a matter of increasing value. There is no reason to believe that we cannot continue with economic growth by doing increasingly valuable things with those finite resources.

An example is education: creates a lot of value for not much material cost.

A better example might be 1000 lbs of aluminum: you could make a couple thousand bats out of it, or cheap cookware, or you could make an airframe, which is much more valuable.

ef

[xsbank]

Economics is not called "the dismal science" for nothing.

[oldncold]

there once was a man who sold hamburgers for 10 Cents a piece

then there was a depression and every body was going broke
people told him about it and they said he should close up shop
and save what he had.

he thought about that for a while but figured that he was doing ok so he opened some more hamburger shops

the COMPANY WAS AND IS MCDONALD'S RESTAURANTS.