Slowdown

[T dot]

With 5 US companies going bankrupt, and oil prices hitting 100$ a barrel, is the canadian aviation industry on a verge of a slowdown too?.. Hiring slowdown usually trickle down, so do you think more and more northern companies (Wasaya, thunder, Air bravo) are going to stop hiring? or is the baby boomer retirements going to offset the slowdown? What about S/o Positions for night freights???

[wallypilot]

For those with some experience, I don't think it will change too much. the last year or 2 has been extremely brisk on the employment front, but I see it slowing somewhat, but nowhere near as slow as '98-'04. I think we will settle into a healthy market where opportunity is around for experienced drivers. All majors are hiring for the foreseeable future, even if it is at a more moderate pace. this creates the big suction from the top that will always create movement below.

It might be slowing a bit, but I see the job market remaining healthy unless some major unforeseen event creates a massive world recession. And, no I don't think the ABCP crisis is enough to slow things significantly. Air travel has become a commodity, a staple of modern living and business practices. The leisure traveler may curb their vacation consumption a little, but overall, especially in Canada, the majors are pretty healthy right now.

What the hell do I know, though...

[Red Line]

Here's my opinion:

Nothing is gonna slow down without warning. As long as Air Canada and WestJet are hiring, there's always gonna be movement at Wasaya, Thunder, Air Bravo, etc. Remember when Air Canada started hiring how long it took to trickle all the way down to the smaller carriers? When they slow down or stop hiring it will likely take almost as long for the back-log to reach the bottom. So what, like 2 years? Remember a lot of these carriers (Wasaya, Thunder, Air Bravo, etc) are currently experiencing a crew shortage.

But that's just my opinion.

[XWIND]

I agree with both of the above

When Westjet and AC stop taking pilots expect things to slow down. If I am not mistaken AC has over one hundred pilots a year retiring for at least the next two years. They are also set to become the biggest 787 operator in North America, 58 aircraft come to mind. I

If this is true and nothing major, and I am not talking about a recession south of the boarder as being major, happens, then they simply must replace the lost pilots to stay at the capacity they are currently at, and add new ones to crew the new aircraft. Westjet is adding to its fleet yearly, I am not sure how many aircraft but I don’t see why that would slow down, they are an economically sound operation with an excellent business plan. The reason I am putting so much emphasis on the majors is because like I said when they stop hiring, and only when they stop hiring is it time to get comfortable where you are.

[Never Mind]

I clearly remember, as if it was yesterday, that hiring was extremely brisk until 2000. During those days I had a fresh Private license and was reading all the aviation magazines I could get my hands on. One of those magazines proudly reported how many new pilots were hired the previous month along with a breakdown of majors, regionals etc.

Almost overnight things changed(not talking about 9/11) and the optimism turned sour. Don't forget that we're living in a new era where oil supply has plateaued during the last three years despite increasing demand. Today oil for the first time passed through (U.S.)$113. Shortly aviation will definitely feel the pain.

[Wacko]

never mind...

[Never Mind]

never mind...

Yeah, what's up bud?

Never Mind

[Beater driver]

I think the market is slowing down big time. Just look at the load factors on the cross border flights and you will know the economy is not as good as it was a few months ago. Don't kid yourself... brace for a slow down.

[Wacko]

I wanted to see if you had an opinion on the topic

[Chuck Ellsworth]

When aviation starts a down turn it goes down faster than any other industry.

This one has all the ear marks of a real down turn.

If you have a job flying now before moving to another one remember that saying about the " grass always looks greener on the other side"

In aviation you will find it is was not grass at all it, when you got there you found out it was Astro Turf.

You will not like trying to eat Astro Turf.

[Never Mind]

If you have a job flying now before moving to another one remember that saying about the " grass always looks greener on the other side"

In aviation you will find it is was not grass at all it, when you got there you found out it was Astro Turf.

Wise words . .. I'd like to tell all my flying comrades that before abandoning their good company to work for Air Canada Jazz or something similar that they should remember that they're being hired on the tail end of this last cycle and that when the economy decisively heads south there will be some anxious times. Unforseen occurences befall us all, including myself, but my choice is to stay where I am.

Never Mind

[SQ]

there might be a slow down in the states but not in other countries.
for those thinking 2001 can occur again, just remind that 2 AC going in 1 tower each is not going to happen before a long time.......
concerning the 5 bankrupcy in US don't gorget that after 2001 in order to support this industry the US Gvt gave a lots of money to help them, creating an artificial health where in fact there is no good management and not good load factor but just artificially maintained companies.
there hasn't been any bankrupcy in Us since 2001 in aviation if I'm not wrong. this is just -we all hope - an adjustment in the us because you all know and read different and intelligent newspapers, that the subprime crisis is not concerning Canada whose $ hasn't been as strong as it is now, and still in a high demand for qualified people in every profession. there is no sign of a slowing down economy in canada.
just compare the numbers and stop listening to your angst.

[Chuck Ellsworth]

The big factor will be the cost of fuel, if things really go sideways in the middle east we could be in for a shock fuel wise....Canada is not immune to the cost of oil.

[jetflightinstructor]

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[jetflightinstructor]

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[Wacko]

... can anyone explain to me why most people are blaming the middle east for the cost of refined petroleum?

[husky]

... can anyone explain to me why most people are blaming the middle east for the cost of refined petroleum?

You can't blame anyone in particular for the price of oil. They/we got it, and therefore free-enterprise should dictate the price. If $113 a barrel is what people are willing to pay for oil, then so be it. Wishing it wasn't so isn't going to change reality.

[bombardierfixer]

I dunno I'm a AME and the industry isn't slowing down as far as I can tell. Oil prices do put a pressure on the game but traffic is still up and it isn't gonna slow down any, I think people are gonna be more inclined to fly then do that big drive just because they don't get that little reminder of how much fuel costs cause its hidden in their ticket. The US started a congressional committe last year to figure out how to get more people into aviation. Calgary lost Field aviation but AMO's in YYC are still looking for guys. I think if there is a slow down it may be localized, if you don't/can't move it is a lot tougher on you I realize that. I think aviation in general is gonna have a lot harder time getting people and keeping them then having too many people.

[V1]

I was talking with a lady at transport and she made a good point, she said "when have you seen it this good for this long"?
History always repeats itself and from my experience loads have been down in the oil patch since last year. Scheduled flights within canada remain busy, but now when i fly in the states there planes for 1/2 empty.
I am sure the american economics will have an effect on us eventually.

[Sea Trout]

Anyone who feels the price of fuel will not hurt the industry is out of touch with reality or simply a fool. As the US economy slows down ours follows, as that happens discretionary spending disappears, businesses teleconference rather than having "facetime", familys travel less. This will have an effect, the only question is how much and where do you want to be when the music stops.

[Wacko]

Keep in mind that by 2009 "IF" the Democrats take the White House prices of fuel WILL go down. What a lot of people don't realize is that the interruption in oil flow through one pipe pails in comparison to how much fuel is used for the invasion. Hopefully the troops will be puled out sooner rather than later.

Also, though it is OIL that is traded on the stock exchange... the reason oil prices are as high as they are is because there is no new investment in oil refineries. This is partly due to the fact that countries are tightening control in regards to the environment, and also due to the fact that it makes more business sense to make $40 on a refined unit of fuel vs. $5. (I think the profit margin is actually substantially higher but I don't want to exaggerate either)

[Sea Trout]

Wacko,
With all respect your presummption about fuel consumption for the "invasion" is bizarre. A few hundred thousand troops mostly being transported, not individual consumers are not a factor. What will be a factor is the instability that will ensue if and hopefully when the US pulls out. Expect oil prices to jump even further.

[beast]

The industry will slow down as AC finishes its massive growth of the past year (ish). WJ has helped this - their hiring, much like AC's WILL continue, but at a slowed pace - this will ensure there is always some movement within the industry

As opposed to years back, when there was nothing.

A few things are different with the upcoming slowdown, that haven't been factors before

1. The US is no longer the entire world's economy - Although they will hurt the rest of the world, pilot hiring abroad will continue, further tightening pilot supplies worldwide. Cathay, Emirates, Jet, etc. will all continue to hire.

2. The flight training industry in Canada is on its last legs - the smaller schools that haven't shut down already, only subsist by advertising the rapid movement currently enjoyed by pilots - when this ends, the image of poor career prospects, high price of fuel and insurance will cripple the numbers of young Canadians taking flight training - these numbers are already suffering. This will ensure that the shortage of commercial pilots in Canada will grow in the long -term, although it may seem unclear in the short-term.

A few things more to consider: Jazz is a good place to sit out a recession - don't be unnerved by long upgrade times, or lower-than-super payscales. It is far better to be a unionized junior f/o with a big carrier, than a non-unionized better paid captain with some no-name crap company. If things go real bad, and you're laid off - you keep your seniority number - may seem trivial after losing your job, but a year later when things are picking up, you'll be glad to have it.

I guess thats more than 2 cents

[Cat Driver]

I guess thats more than 2 cents

That has to be 200 Euros at least.

[Wacko]

Wacko,
With all respect your presummption about fuel consumption for the "invasion" is bizarre. A few hundred thousand troops mostly being transported, not individual consumers are not a factor. What will be a factor is the instability that will ensue if and hopefully when the US pulls out. Expect oil prices to jump even further.

They are using machines for everything from moving troops to patrols to everything. I'm also taking into account Afghanistan. You don't have to agree with me... I guess only time will tell. I bet you by the end of this year they will have more "problems" with refineries in North American which is what will bring the prices up.

As I don't want to get into this debate in this thread my last point on this subject is: How come when something happens anywhere in the world the prices at the pumps jump up over night. However when there is relative peace the prices don't seam to reflect it?

beast -> that is a very elegant post. I think you're 100% right.