You're comparing apples and oranges. ELTs failure to activate is most likely due to the G switch not activating because the impact was in the wrong axis or not enough Gs. Also, sometimes the damn things are just left turned off instead of armed. Both of this scenarios have nothing to do with the transmitting characteristics of either old 121.5 ELTs or new 406 ELTs. Obviously the SPOT will have a 100% failure rate if we rely on it to automatically activate!SPOT might miss 5% of the time, but ELTs fail to activate 40% of the time (at least in 1997). Perhaps 406 is better, but I very much doubt it will be over 95% effective. And at least with SPOT you'll still have your breadcrumb trail.
The new TSO for 406 ELTs has a 500G shock requirement and a 1000lb crush test requirement, as well as flame resistance requirements. Way better than the 121.5 ELTs in our planes now!
There are 406 ELTs on the market, approved by TC, for $1000.00 that can use the existing mounting brackets for many old 121.5 ELTs. Some models can also us the remote switch from old 121.5 ELTs. There is a relaxation allowing an AMO or AME to install them on private aircraft as opposed to an avionics shop (so long as no interfacing required). The lithium batteries are now approved by TC as long as they carry TSO-C142.
SPOT transmissions are 0.4 watts, old 121.5 ELTs are 0.1 watts, and new 406 ELTs are 5.0 watts. It's easy to see which one is going to get a signal through, especially if surrounded by trees and terrain.
For Widow - The SPOT's breadcrumb trail leaves quite a lot of time between updates, for a 5 minute flight you would only get the first crumb in the breadcrumb trail; that is to say where the flight started from. SPOT won't be able to get a GPS fix on or under water. A personal 406 PLB (like a ELT or EPIRB but smaller and worn on an individual, and waterproof) would be a great thing to have if stranded in the water - immediate alerting of rescue services by a strong transmission with your exact location known to them within minutes.
IFR flights, by their nature are under surveillance most of the time because they are all carried out with control from ATC. Not so with many of the VFR flights in uncontrolled airspace.







