Slowdown

[Doc]

Probably a pilot?

[florch]

. and Doc

I think I'm on the mark - maybe arguing the other side of the coin. Pilots tend to weed themselves out before they get to 705 or the other more demanding, specialized parts of the industry. You give yourself 5 or so chances to lose your job every year (2 rides, 2 medicals, a line check - I'm aware it doesn't happen all the time), you take on a long, arduous apprenticeship before dividends start to apply, you take a lifestyle penalty/difference permanently - most professionals consider it normal life to be able to sleep from 11-7 as a matter of course, play slo-pitch on Tuesdays and coach soccer on Thursdays, anyone here do that? Supply/demand, responsibility and inconvenience are 3 of the main reasons a pilot deserves above average compensation - higher than a factory worker, higher than a bus driver, and dare I say, higher than a teacher. Not just anyone can or will do it, and you shouldn't get penalized because it's fun. There's a shortage of skippers right now because lots of these fine young FO's simply need a bit more time before they can slide over - they'll do fine, just not this year.

In some ways the continuing education aspect also sets us apart. New jets may be easier to fly, but in many ways they're harder to learn, if that makes sense - a longer learning curve resulting in a more consistent product. The nature of the job doesn't lend itself to years in a classroom - in this field experience is key.

And a dillweed is anyone that discounts these factors and sells out their own profession! We've taken it on the chin for years, it would be nice to take back some of the wages we've lost (in real terms) of the last 20 years. But the owner's union, IATA is stronger than we are so we can't get off the mat. We're our own worst enemy, and the first step in changing that is highlighting the value we bring, not selling out on how this profession or that requires a skill that doesn't apply to us. We have our skill-set, it has a value as a profession and a commodity.

[Cat Driver]

Thanks for the explanation florch here are the two bits that prompted my reply.

If you don't take yourself and your profession with a bit of respect, enjoy scaring yourself every couple months.

How you reached that stretch is beyond me, do you scare yourself every couple of months, because I sure didn't.

Thankfully there are enough pros out there to make up for you dillweeds that think it's a piece of cake.

I don't consider myself a dillweed having managed to accomplish most every goal I wanted in aviation.

Anyhow to each his own and the problem with aviation is supply and demand. If they made the licenses harder to get by upping the training requirements then the wages would probably go up.

As it stands it is so easy to become a commercial pilot in Canada that most anyone with enough money can do it.

So much for it being a difficult profession.

[florch]

I don't consider myself a dillweed having managed to accomplish most every goal I wanted in aviation.

Anyhow to each his own and the problem with aviation is supply and demand. If they made the licenses harder to get by upping the training requirements then the wages would probably go up.

As it stands it is so easy to become a commercial pilot in Canada that most anyone with enough money can do it.

So much for it being a difficult profession.

Oh, so now you take your accomplishments more seriously. Is the summation of your aviation knowledge contained in a CPL or ATPL or even AME? I think not. And I don't disagree with raising the bar - not just to correct supply and demand, but to turn out more prepared professionals. I remember being a deer-in-the-headlights new hire, I've seen tons of others(read: every new CPL) It is easy to get a CPL. No one is able to earn much of a living with just that. The accomplishment is getting the Airbus or Sikorsky or DHC8 or (insert type here) on your license and maintaining a high standard for years. That's why you should get paid. And you get paid for working with the next stunned candidate and bringing him along, just like someone mentored you. Someone trusts you with taking lives and millions of dollars of supplies and equipment into challenging places. That's why you get paid, am I repeating myself? Sorry. Maybe you're not a dillweed.

The point about scaring yourself was that it seems that it's mostly preventable - take your work seriously, this profession is unforgiving of complacency. You get paid to remain prepared for years. I'm not in the habit of scaring myself but I work to keep myself out of those corners. But like most people, I've had the sensation of my butt sucking vinyl, and I've learned from it. I'm sure you've been there once, or else I'm sure you're a liar. That's the experience we get paid for.

With respect,

[Chuck Ellsworth]

The point about scaring yourself was that it seems that it's mostly preventable - take your work seriously, this profession is unforgiving of complacency I'm not in the habit of scaring myself but I work to keep myself out of those corners. But like most people, I've had the sensation of my butt sucking vinyl, and I've learned from it. I'm sure you've been there once, or else I'm sure you're a liar. I'm not in the habit of scaring myself but I work to keep myself out of those corners. But like most people, I've had the sensation of my butt sucking vinyl, and I've learned from it. I'm sure you've been there once, or else I'm sure you're a liar. I'm not in the habit of scaring myself but I work to keep myself out of those corners. But like most people, I've had the sensation of my butt sucking vinyl, and I've learned from it. I'm sure you've been there once, or else I'm sure you're a liar.
That's the experience we get paid for.

With respect,

The problem with typing on a forum such as this florch is people tend to argue over perceived issues such as what the other poster is trying to get across.

This one you and I are batting back and forth is typical of how it can get personal with no real reason beyond a poor choice of words , usually by both parties.

With respect the above quote is typical for the simple reason that when I read it I think to myself why is this person making such an issue over such basic issues as this?

I'm not in the habit of scaring myself but I work to keep myself out of those corners. But like most people, I've had the sensation of my butt sucking vinyl, and I've learned from it. I'm sure you've been there once, or else I'm sure you're a liar.

Everyone in aviation will scare themselves on occasion and some learn from it, the real test of how much you learn is your flying record.

However having scared yourself on occasion and learned from it does not make your profession more difficult, flying is a semi skilled profession that the average person who can read and write can become quite good at.

That's the experience we get paid for.

There we are in agreement, I wouldn't even consider flying in the specialized sector of aviation for less than one to three thousand dollars a day.

[florch]

I apologize for emotion and tangent coming into my post. We're all poor debaters because we continually prove the other's point. There isn't a master debater among us. My indignation was that the slight against the profession came from 2 guys who've made a career out of it, and seem to respect their own accomplishments. Anyone else and I would have let it slide, but we all listen to you and respect you, so I want to balance the argument. Maybe I'm substandard, but I seem to recall what a challenge it is to master (not just get by in) a new airplane and how easy it is to fly 200 or 300 hours later. Or that your 5th initial on a new type is much easier than the first. That isn't the sign of a task that is learned by someone of average intelligence. Or was it all dead easy for you, every skill in every airplane came together just like that, every approach right in the slot, every landing's a greaser on the 1000 footers, every person that looks at you raised to your lofty level by your glorious presence. I doubt it. I'm sure you're all of that now, but it didn't come so easily as it's been suggested.

Why do you get to command that much money?

Because you're specialized. You handle more complicated factors than simple flying. You manage the equipment and people around you. You know how to prevent other factors from distracting you from your primary task of the simple flying of the aircraft. So what if it only requires average intelligence or skill? What are the barriers from becoming a good pilot - money aside? Because few that start out make it to the premium jobs of the profession, there must be some attribute that makes those worth good money. Ever see an excellent FO become average when they slide to the left seat and the decision making interferes with the simple flying? I have, lots. Give them a year and they'll be back to top notch. If you've survived the wringer, you're worthy of healthy pay. It's not the skills we don't have that make us worthy, it's having the ones required by the profession. I'll slink back to my lurker status now, I've belaboured my point, I know.

[Chuck Ellsworth]

every landing's a greaser on the 1000 footers,

Depends on what you are flying, some airplanes you will have landed and turned around and be taxiing back before you are thousand feet down the runway.

Anyhow we have expressed our thoughts and we seem to have a different view of what flying really requires.

You think it is difficult and I don't, that makes neither of us wrong.

[florch]

Those airplanes are easy to fly! You probably don't have any other difficulties, enjoy your non-challenging life

[Chuck Ellsworth]

Those airplanes are easy to fly! You probably don't have any other difficulties, enjoy your non-challenging life

The days of flying for a living are over for me I had thirty thousand hours of doing it and never had to fill out an accident report so I'm satisfied with how my career ended.

[florch]

Good for you, I haven't either - not as many hours though

You were undoubtedly a great asset to your employers. I hope your were well compensated.

[Cat Driver]

I hope your were well compensated.

There were times I was not...but as the years wore on it got better...at the end I was paid very well.....sometimes very,very well.

[synthpro]

To bring this post back on track.... IS THEIR A SLOWDOWN?

In my opinion, I do not believe their is. My father works at CAE, and builds simulators. He recently told me that the company has never been this busy in their 50 year existance. Orders are flying through the roof. He said for every one similator thats built, their are usually 20 airplanes on order.

That being said, the minor hicup experienced in the USA will not last. Back in the 70's, Oil company's did the same thing... and that was gauge us. Than all of a sudden, car companies started producing smaller vehicles like the Ford escorts, people started biking and using pubic transportation more... and the oil prices went back down again.

Using this historical data, I believe the same thing will happen again. Oil will probably go up a bit more untill the summer ends, and than you'll start to see prices fall to $100 a barrel.

Furthermore, air travel is no longer a luxary, it is a necessity, so I think our industry is in good shape. But this is just my opinion.

synthpro

[Wacko]

To bring this post back on track.... IS THEIR A SLOWDOWN?

Using this historical data, I believe the same thing will happen again. Oil will probably go up a bit more untill the summer ends, and than you'll start to see prices fall to $100 a barrel.

synthpro

The only minor divination from the past is that now most "experts" agree that there is an end is sight. Oil prices aren't a problem... it's China and India that's the problem! There are more people consuming without more product being produced... time to clean up the East I say!

... I am curious though... if there is a slowdown, are the new a380's really worth the investment? There has to be something that most of the major airlines are seeing that we're not... otherwise, why invest in Titanic?

[synthpro]

That is a good topic, how will the A380 fair in todays market?

Well, in the opinion of Forbes, Boeing's 787 is going to steel the show, and the A380 may turn out to be a bust. The reasoning is that, traffic is way up, more so than 20 years ago. With this increased traffic, their are more point-to-point routings like Montreal to Toulouse (France).

On the other hand, Airbus is waging their bets that people will continue to travel the same way as in the past - Montreal to Paris (hub connection) - Toulouse.

With added airport security resulting in long line ups, I believe Airbus does not have the right model. Studies are showing that Boeing was bang on the money. Boeing believes that traffic will increas 5% every year for the next 40 years (and this does not even include the Asian market).

So I think we are definately in the right industry. I myself will not keep my options to Canada only, as I see their seems to be so much more potential abroad.

[beast]

wacko, buddy - weren't you around in the 70's - the oil supply was just about used up then, too. Ah, these experts, plying their trade. Sometimes I wonder where they all go, when their prophecies have turned out wrong.

Maybe they're just holograms created by the news media, to beef up their propaganda.

[Wacko]

wacko, buddy - weren't you around in the 70's -

No... no I wasn't... I wasn't even a twinkle in my parents eyes

But yeah... one thing's for sure... Oil is a resource that will run out sooner or later... and the more people panic, the more money the oil companies make

[beast]

Yeah, eventually - but during the next couple months, this fuel thing will sort itself out, like it always has before -

The real issue that is unique to this moment in the industry is that the flight training industry is no longer able to produce the numbers of qualified personnel for ANY demand level, let alone growth demand.

Anyone involved in the flight training aspect of this industry right now knows it - from the students sitting on long waiting lists to begin training, to the owners trying to keep their schools open with a fraction of the instructors they would have had years ago.

Its the ultimate catch 22 - as instructors become more and more scarce, their rates will rise, further limiting the numbers of able interested candidates - and bottlenecking the training of those who are able to pay. Small, entry-level schools and companies will suffer the most (are suffering the most), because they can't afford higher salaries and better equipment. Most will fail or be amalgamated into large companies.

This will eventually result (maybe 20 years) in the Canadian (and probably American) pilot training industry looking very similar to Europe's - Individual companies will control their own pilot training, to ensure they can meet their crew objectives. For the pilots - everyone pays huge bucks, with the guarantee of an instant high-paying airline job. AC Jazz has seen the writing on the wall - the rest will follow.

[B-rad]

.

[Big Pistons Forever]

Air Canada's next bid will be a status quo bid (i.e. very little to no new hires). If they continue parking aircraft the 09 bids will be reduction bids and West Jet is already scaling back their new aircraft commitments. Sorry guys the party is over and it is time to find a place to ride out the next downturn.

[beast]

Hate to alarm you, big pistons, but the North American economy has been in a recession for some time now, whether or not the big wigs on wall st. admit it.

AC is slowing their hiring, but just like last time, within a year they'll be canceling flights for serious crew shortages, placing themselves at a real disadvantage during the boom - you'd think they'd have learned by now, but the company really has no management at all - its completely on autopilot.

These hiring up's and down's at the majors are no longer a dyanmic player in the Canadian pilot market - yes, if they're hiring tons of people, the entry-levels will hurt even worse, but the fact remains:

This industry no longer has the ability to train or introduce enough qualified members to sustain the number of companies in it, even the flight training segment itself. This is a serious issue that may prove to have crippling consequences to most of the smaller aviation companies in this nation. This isn't some revolutionary concept that only a delusional fool could imagine: Take a look at the rest of the world! Canada is just becoming one of the many nations around the globe that, for one reason or another, cannot sustain its supply of pilots to meet the demand. If you want to see this in action, go to your local flight school - At my local school, there is a 50 person waiting list to start, only 6 instructors, and half of them have announced their intentions to leave. The waiting list used to be even larger - but the astronomical increases in training costs, from fuel , to insurance, to rising instructor rates to convince them to stay longer than 2 months - have thinned the ranks of those able or interested.


Lets see where this goes....

[Cat Driver]

Lets see where this goes....

Maybe the instructor shortage will raise the pay for instructors?

[C23flyer]

If Bush manages to invade Iran before his term is up, there'll be lots of oil.

[Flybabe]

Well, there certainly aren't many new postings on the board for pilots. That says a bit to me right there.

[jetflightinstructor]

*

[Cat Driver]

About the real subject before Cat deviated: I don' t reckon any slow down right now.

Hmmm...why are some of the worlds biggest airlines parking airplanes?

As to your friends dying in airplanes I am sorry to hear that...but I do not recall ever making any comment that could be connected to your loss.

You piss us of Cat, and I don' t care your experience. Lucky you if you never crashed and/or died

If I piss you off don't bother reading my posts.

I never crashed or died because I learned to not only fly safely but I learned to think safely. Having worked as both an airplane mechanic and a pilot for over fifty years I can honestly say the flying part was the least difficult....therefore it is my opinion that it is a semi skilled job....and that opinion jetflightinstructor comes from having experienced the industry long before you were born I am willing to bet.