Jazz laying off

[Hedley]

Anybody here old enough to remember the recession
of 1980? That was a bad one ....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_re ... ted_States

[Cat Driver]

Yes and also the one in the early seventies when the oil shortage brought everything almost to a standstill.

I was lucky that time because I had a government paid flying job that was funded regardless.

[Flying Nutcracker]

http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/oilprice1947.gif

http://goldprice.org/30-year-gold-price-history.html

http://one-salient-oversight.blogspot.c ... -1973.html

See any connection between the price of oil and gold and the value of the american dollar???

[wallypilot]

http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/oilprice1947.gif

http://goldprice.org/30-year-gold-price-history.html

http://one-salient-oversight.blogspot.c ... -1973.html

See any connection between the price of oil and gold and the value of the american dollar???

exactly. that is why oil will not decrease meaningfully until the US dollar regains some of its losses. In light of the current US economy, i don't think the dollar will gain much. So with constrained supply, strong demand, and a low US dollar, oil will at the very least stay at its current level. ALthough, I predict oil will slowly rise to the $200 per barrel range over the next couple years, and when and if the US economy recovers, leaner an meaner (hopefully), oil may settle back to the $100-$150 range in say 2011-2012. maybe.

The comment earlier about the fact that airlines have high load factors, yet are barely making money says something about what they believe the market can handle in terms of ticket prices. I think the traveling public may be close to a tipping point. At current prices, people are still flying....any significant increase in ticket prices, and I think we will see lower load factors. This coming winter may be a tough one in the airline industry.

But I digress...to continue with the original topic...i find it hard to see any flight crew furloughed, since the attrition rate should take care of most of the required reduction. Let's hope no-one loses their seat!

[bombardierfixer]

Not to sound cynical, but...are contract negotiations starting in a few months ( I would put a question mark there but my wife and son did a mod on my computer which has taken all of my punctuation keys)

[oldtimer]

I was chatting with a guy who is in marketing with one of the major retail oil companies and he predicts $100 a barrel by November and could go as low as $70.

[sky's the limit]

I was chatting with a guy who is in marketing with one of the major retail oil companies and he predicts $100 a barrel by November and could go as low as $70.

And did you ask him where he's getting whatever he's smoking?


stl

[oldtimer]

From oil industry executives and the CEO's of some of the majors.

[square]

But it's in their interest to make you think this is only temporary. Otherwise you'll scale back your infrastructure to need less oil.

[ScudRunner]

I wonder when the Euro Dollar will become the world currency? I know some people that use to get paid in US dollars overseas are demanding Euro's in there contracts now.

If Oil was priced in Euros would that have made a big difference over the decline of the US Dollar in the past few years?? any of you math type people know the answer.

[SQ]

I wonder when the Euro Dollar will become the world currency?.

never saw that one, from wich country is it ?
it will become the world currency when middle east will use it to sell its oil, then it'll be the EUROIL.

[SQ]

But it's in their interest to make you think this is only temporary. Otherwise you'll scale back your infrastructure to need less oil.

do you really think it is in CEO's oilcompany to make oldtimer think this is only temporary, unless oldtimer ahs an important game to play on international scenery...

[Wacko]

With regards to sharp declines on the stock market... oil prices WILL fall after August... how far down is relative to how many people will be able to handle the margin calls. F@cking speculators have risen the price of oil at least $30-40 and demand always drops in the fall.

As for the Euro being used to trade oil.. why do you think the US is in Iraq and threatening Iran? If all the IOU's came in from the blank checks the US has been writing the US would go beyond a recession.

Back to Jazz... if they do lay any pilots off what are the chances they lay off the 5-6 guys that got in straight from school? It would be curious to see if anyone would be willing to hire a 350 hour pilot with 100 hours of jet time. I really hope no one loses their job.

[TopperHarley]

Back to Jazz... if they do lay any pilots off what are the chances they lay off the 5-6 guys that got in straight from school? It would be curious to see if anyone would be willing to hire a 350 hour pilot with 100 hours of jet time. I really hope no one loses their job.

If there are any pilots laid off, its purely seniority-based. The 8 students that were hired started last fall and most likely have enough of a buffer to be protected. I'd guess they have over 130+ people below them. I started in Feb and have almost 60 under me to give you an idea.

Last time we laid off pilots the number was around 142, close to 10% of the pilot workforce. It was a different situation- we were bankrupt and had a lot less a/c to operate.

The whole thing is a complete crapshoot though. The truth is nobody knows what's going to happen to the pilots. Likewise, nobody knows whats going to happen to oil prices. People keep saying the price will go down, but they've been saying that for a long time now. I personally don't believe it, but that's just my opinion.

I'd rather not waste my time worrying about what's going to happen as I have very little control on whether I lose my job or not. It's very stressful for obvious reasons and it really sucks to be in a position like this, but things could be a lot worse.

[Captain Crunch]

Could be worse.... damn rights. You could be getting your layoff notice in Shamattawa. Or just still going their twice a day.

CC

[Kelowna Pilot]

Doom and gloom, the start of another 'bust' cycle - yes it looks bad now, but things will turn around as they always have. A few years of pain then more gain (although, how much actual 'gain' have we attained over the last 3 or 4 years besides full employment?).

It really is a cycle. The last one was caused by terrorists, the one before that, was it the stock market? I forget. Then before that there was inflation, wars, whatever. This too shall pass. The hard part is that Starbucks is closing 600 stores so where are we all going to work?

Everyone hopes you're right, but I'm convinced that oil prices are going to remain high. Oil prices are not cyclical anymore as it's a whole new ball game out there with the emerging economies and the fact that oil is becoming increasingly harder (and much more expensive) to get.

The next big thing to hit aviation will be governments clamping down on polluters, of which aviation is a big one.

Pray for the cheap alternative (and clean) fuel source. Failing that, a lot of people are going to see very significant lifestyle changes, and it's going to be a tough pill to swallow. It's not going to just be aviation that is affected, it's pretty well everyone in the west who have based their lives on the notion that oil will always be as cheap as coffee. Those days are over.

[xsbank]

A bottle of tap water costs more than a litre of gasoline. Its all marketing.

I refuse to be drawn in - things go up, things go down. What we are seeing now has nothing to do with supply, so why will the price stay high? In any case, I don't think its that high anyway. We are paying for fuel close to what they've been paying in Europe for years and their economy managed to roll along anyway. Meh.

It can get better or it can get worse. My bets are that its just another cycle, another exogenous shock, just like all the rest. There were many who declared the end of everything after 911, after the dot-com bust, after the last recession.... things will change, but there is still no viable alternative to air travel.

[Wacko]

I hear they can teleport atoms... you never know what the future will hold... on the Discovery channel they had an underwater mag lev train from NY to England...

[squawk 7600]

A bottle of tap water costs more than a litre of gasoline. Its all marketing.

...and bottled water isn't even as good as tap water, as bottled water isn't regulated like tap water.

[Kelowna Pilot]

there is still no viable alternative to air travel.

Yes there is, it's called stay at home and don't go on vacation to Mexico

[square]

do you really think it is in CEO's oilcompany to make oldtimer think this is only temporary, unless oldtimer ahs an important game to play on international scenery...

Politics and propaganda are about staying on message, and believing that message. And look why, it's already got you convinced.

[ski_bum]

A bottle of tap water costs more than a litre of gasoline. Its all marketing.

...and bottled water isn't even as good as tap water, as bottled water isn't regulated like tap water.

I guess you have never had well water...

[ehbuddy]

What the US should be doing is spending its billions on North American oil exploration and building massive new refineries instead of spending its billions trying to solve other peoples problems in sand filled countries.

If all of the large oil tankers that were currently enroute to North America were all told to turn around and go back to where they came from you would soon see dramatic change in the price at the pumps.............first it would go up and then it would drop to record lows.

They will end up with too much oil with nowhere to go and they will be the ones finally sucking buttermilk!

[Wacko]

What the US should be doing is spending its billions on North American oil exploration and building massive new refineries instead of spending its billions trying to solve other peoples problems in sand filled countries.

You know what "I" would like to see?! I would like... nei I would LOVE to see at least current North American refineries work at capacity! That's what I would like to see!