Is the music stopping?

[Dust Devil]

Because Alberta introduced a new royalty scheme... IMHO it's just a way for the oil companies to punish the government. At $90+ per barrel of oil they will come back soon... it's one of those; you push me so I push you back. If the Alberta premier wins the election coming up in a month or so, they will have no choice but to deal with it.

Spoken like someone that doesn't understand the industry. Trust me the oil companies will have no problem leaving Alberta behind for some time. There are plenty of other governments with oil that will welcome the oil companies with open arms. Colorado is going to be a hot bed of activity for some time. Saskatchewan has oil reserves that rival Alberta however due to the unfriendly business environment that has been here for decades the oil companies have restricted oil development here. Mainly keeping to exploration and R&D in order to maintain some kind of foothold here until a more friendly environment presents itself. The oil has been there for millions of years. leaving it there a little longer won't hurt the oil companies much when there are opportunities elsewhere. Unfortunately I think Alberta is in for a world of hurt in the next decade. Any bets on if the rest of Canada will be there to help them out. I'm betting not.

[Kelowna Pilot]

Unfortunately I think Alberta is in for a world of hurt in the next decade. Any bets on if the rest of Canada will be there to help them out. I'm betting not.

Alberta has had some pretty big 'boom-bust' cycles before, so never say never...

But these oil company have invested a fortune in infrastructure in AB (I would guess)... it's not like you just pull up and leave over night and leave all that stuff behind... or so you would think... But I know nothing about the oil industry, so maybe I'm missing something.

[Dust Devil]

The infrastructure will serve existing production but I think you will see additional drilling and workover work slow down dramatically.

[Kelowna Pilot]

That'll probably really hurt the Edmonton economy.

Better sell my shares in Hunky Bill's Perogie House while the going is still good.

[THEICEMAN]

*SNERK* how humble of you, Ice, to say that Warren Buffet backs up your opinion. I'm sure he's on the phone every single day asking for your advice...

O.k, then I will make it more politically correct for you.

My opinions, which I expressed before the article referring to Buffet, are very similar to his.

Satisfied?

[MrWings]

They were already cutting back drilling BEFORE the royalty increase came. It was because the cost of doing business in Alberta was through the roof.

You will see a slowdown. But for Alberta, that will mean sustainable levels of growth.

1000 HP talks about $10,000/month. How many hours is that? 40hrs seems extremely low compared to what they were doing before.

And as far as oil companies leaving Alberta. Well, other place have higher royalty rates, inaccessible access and people shooting at you. They aren't going anywhere.

[Main Gear]

With these profits, i'm not too worried about AB...

http://finance.sympatico.msn.ca/investi ... id=6244841

http://finance.sympatico.msn.ca/investi ... id=6245636

[BigB]

Sorry to resurrect this thread guys, but....any comments ICEMAN? (other than the economy will improve in 12 to 15 months)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ ... columnists

[THEICEMAN]

Article supports my point, except that Buffet calls the slowdown a recession.

In the short run, the U.S economy is going to have a bumpy ride. But it will recover by 2009.

No indication of a market crash!

[alpha1]

I'm not so sure about a recovery in 2009.

http://www.fool.com/investing/value/200 ... mra0000001

[intel]

So whats up with Air Canada, Westjet, and Air Canada Jazz?

Are they still hiring? Will the hiring start up in the spring as normal? are the airlines looking at the economy and seing that things are slowing down?
Anyone in the know?

I' ve read all comments made and I agree that the economy will recover once this credit crisis is over, hopefully in 2009. which of course will be good for the Newbes entering the industry. I am just glad that it not like the ride we had just after 2001.

Now is the time to be buying cheap property, boats, and planes in the States. That is if you have the money.......hey put it on the credit card!!!!

[TopperHarley]

I' ve read all comments made and I agree that the economy will recover once this credit crisis is over, hopefully in 2009. which of course will be good for the Newbes entering the industry. I am just glad that it not like the ride we had just after 2001.

Honestly, asking that question is like asking who will win the stanley cup this year or in 2011. Lots of opinions, but noone can predict the unexpected. There's too many variables that we cannot possibly factor into the equation (injuries, terrorist attacks, wars, assasinations, etc). So we are left to come up with an opinion based on our understanding and our knowledge, which tends to be very limited and very incomplete.

Dont waste your time worrying about the economy. Im sure that many people were saying the markets were going to recover when they were down in the early 2000s... then 911 happened... nobody saw it coming.

[THEICEMAN]

Dont waste your time worrying about the economy. Im sure that many people were saying the markets were going to recover when they were down in the early 2000s... then 911 happened... nobody saw it coming.

good point!

[BigB]

Well ICE, I'm not talking about a crash. From what I gather, you were just out of diapers on black friday. In the future, please don't spin things to dramatize the affect.

Here's a question for you.....How will the Canadian Banks (chartered) realize profits in the near future with more stringent credit ratios, considering the last 2-3 quarterly writedown(s)?

[Commonwealth]

Here's a question for you.....How will the Canadian Banks (chartered) realize profits in the near future with more stringent credit ratios, considering the last 2-3 quarterly writedown(s)?

I am guessing increased service fees.

[intel]

The music just STOPPED!!!!!!!!
everyone in a good chair?
we are at the top of descent.....everyone enjoy the ride!!!!!

[. .]

It's definitely grinding to a halt, but there still is some movement. Look back to the job postings forum from say 2002, there was less posts in there a month than we get in some days now. There's still Porter and Georgian hiring direct entry captains, still ads for corporate jet jobs, still a few places looking to fill the holes the mass movement had created. I'm not trying to say it's still glory times, but compared to things in 2002 this is still far from a dead stop. I suppose compared to last summer it would appear to be a wasteland though.

[xsbank]

Its probably more accurate to state that the music never stops, it just slows down a bit, like when a Victrola winds down. Some(thing) will give it a wind and we'll all be able to dance again. Just don't be in too much of a rush to make that 'lifestyle' change right now, things will be a bit iffy for a while for those with marginal markets or financing.

Notice how the European companies are not going to the wall at the same rate as North American? Its not all over until it all over.

Oh, by the way, there is still tons of oil about.

[North Shore]

Oh, by the way, there is still tons of oil about.

Sure, but that's not really the issue..it's how fast it can be extracted, and the cost of doing so. The rate is going down at the same time that the cost is going up.

[BigB]

Perhaps it's time to resurrect this thread and learn something from our most recent (keep in mind one yearish) predictions. This thread may have future application if resurrected in.....perhaps the next aviation boom?!

From what I see, Kelowna Pilot had the most realistic call. Iceman, I honestly would like your objective opinion, as you see it within the context of what your profs are saying (keep in mind, I'm somewhat of a contrarian).

[BigB]

Iceman....Bueller...Bueller....

[mighty mouse]

Id say the music is playing in re-wind.

[niko]

The music is starting again!!

[Four1oh]

So 70% of the US economy is based on consumer spending. The consumer has a massive debt load right now, are losing their jobs, the value of their house is dropping(assuming they're still making payments on it) and the banks are being really tight now with lending or extending credit. Sounds positive to me.

[Invertago]

<Bump>

So has anyone lost their job or had their work hours cut back due to the economic conditions, or is it just "fall" and the normal slow season etc.