Hiring 2009 predictions

Triple7 · Post by **Triple7** » Fri Jan 16, 2009 11:18 am

so it is pretty much impossible to find work anywhere in canada right now. just wondering what peoples thoughts are about how long this recession will last and have an impact on airlines hiring. will the olympics help at all next year? any hope or should I pick up a trade?

flying4dollars · Post by **flying4dollars** » Fri Jan 16, 2009 11:56 am

Well WestJet will be hiring 1000 hour pilots and Air Canada will adopt CMA's low time program. Enerjet will be the new WestJet and Canada 3000 will start up again so everyone will be hiring.

.........what do you mean I need help?????

K jokes aside, I figure as soon as the economy stabilizes and as soon as major companies start posting back to back profits, people will be more comfortable with spending money again. When this happens, we will see the aviation sector rise like a thermometer.

Tough to say when though. Barrack ftw

. . · Post by **. .** » Fri Jan 16, 2009 1:22 pm

I think if you look back to the job adds from 2001-2003 that should give you an idea of what's coming. We've yet to really see it as bleak as it was then. There was guys with 320 type ratings flying caravans, and PC-12's at the company I was working for at the time. We haven't had major layoffs from the airline sector yet. A trickle from CarjoJet and now Canadian North, but nothing to the scale that's been seen before. Imagine a 10,000hr pilot competing with you for that Navajo job. It's been there before.

Rowdy · Post by **Rowdy** » Fri Jan 16, 2009 2:59 pm

I don't think theres much movement.. bad time to be getting started now.. but I'm still seeing positions and stuff open.. You just gotta look a bit harder and companies are being MUCH more selective on who they're hiring and a lot have negated posting on avcanada it seems. Shouldn't be a terrible season.. It'll be alright.

Doc · Post by **Doc** » Fri Jan 16, 2009 4:44 pm

Eighteen months ago, you could get a job on the phone, anywhere. But the music has stopped. We all knew it couldn't last. Hope everybody is in a seat they're happy with. Companies can go back to the ole ways. It's not pilot's market anymore. It may not be for a good many years.
One side of the industry should still be good for the drivers though...floats. Float drivers will be able to write their own tickets for a wee while yet. That will end in a couple of summers as well as airline furloughs come back to their old haunts.
So, if you have a seat....stay there.

angry inch · Post by **angry inch** » Fri Jan 16, 2009 5:21 pm

Doc, how will things change in a couple years for float pilots?

scopiton · Post by **scopiton** » Fri Jan 16, 2009 5:25 pm

winter has never been a big hiring season, why not wait spring to make conclusions...?
oil is low, thats good for airline profits...
everybody will feel better after barack's $1000 billionplan...
comparing this downturn with 9/11 is a bit too much, has not the same causes for the same results neither the same trauma everybody felt at this time
and : the only WMD we have ever found has just left his seat in the white house, the best thing that could happen so far...

Cat Driver · Post by **Cat Driver** » Fri Jan 16, 2009 6:16 pm

Doc, how will things change in a couple years for float pilots?

That will end in a couple of summers as well as airline furloughs come back to their old haunts.

angry inch · Post by **angry inch** » Fri Jan 16, 2009 6:41 pm

oops...

I get it now..

Cat Driver · Post by **Cat Driver** » Fri Jan 16, 2009 8:29 pm

One thing for sure having experience on sea planes will make it easier to find work if the industry tanks due to this real strange financial situation that is world wide .......

Watching the TV news from the USA it is really getting serious there, some of the biggest companies are going under...every day there seems to be another one.

fingersmac · Post by **fingersmac** » Fri Jan 16, 2009 9:12 pm

scopiton wrote: oil is low, thats good for airline profits...

Not when airlines hedged fuel at $130 a barrel with the expectation that it would rise to $200.

canpilot · Post by **canpilot** » Fri Jan 16, 2009 10:45 pm

x2 doc

getting a job was no worries last summer. As doc said you could call all fall, winter and spring and then get a few phone calls in the spring.. that was when i had 500 TT Im now at 800 TT and people won't even look at my resume nor accept it. And yes, that was in the winter!! Its a big change for sure! It seems like yet again 1,000 + is the magic number any less.. i think it could get very tough! If you disagree please correct me!! I'd like some good news for a change...

I know personally having sat through the 2001 meldown ..and now having a family and potentially needing to sit in limbo for another few years until things move again.. Aviation is becoming a career path that I can no longer financially justify.. I'm looking into other career paths that aren't so unstable... So long blue skies/ avcanada!! (foggy skies in YVR right now)

Is anyone else leaving aviation? I can forsee another pilots market once all this picks up.. if im packing my bags and getting out maybe many others will be as well?? I want to come back when things pick up again, if I can...

Happy landings all!! May you all keep your jobs!

CE-750Driver · Post by **CE-750Driver** » Fri Jan 16, 2009 11:43 pm

I hope it doesn't become as bad in Canada as it is in the States.

I got laid off after 3 years with a corporate operator (they phoned me and did it on my birthday, too!) Not much happening here if you don't want to move or have a type on a Hawker or Citation II.

I lucked out and am now starting (on Monday) with a carrier I have always wanted to work for - in my hometown.

There is stuff out there, good luck to everyone looking!

Gord

B-rad · Post by **B-rad** » Fri Jan 16, 2009 11:55 pm

I'm with ya. I'm taking this time to do all the other things I wanted to do. When the industry is stopped. Get back in it when the music is playing, cuz that's when it's best to dance!

Am I wrong?

Brown Bear · Post by **Brown Bear** » Sat Jan 17, 2009 9:16 am

All you young guys willing to work on a ramp or dock are going to be stuck on that ramp a hell of a lot longer, because nobody will be moving out of their seats to take the next step. There will be no next step to take for a while. You'll all be getting older and older, slugging freight, and you TT will still be 250! Might as well spend the next couple of years working on your MBA!

youngtimer · Post by **youngtimer** » Sat Jan 17, 2009 9:26 am

In the oilpatch related sector of aviation, drilling is down to about 30% of normal, with the feeling that spring will drop that to a near stop. With nat. gas and oil in the tank, hopefully the airlines will recover soon to help open up some seats in the charter world. Everyone seems to be needing pilots but they still won't hire any. I'm thinking by next fall, the patch should be planning for closer to normal workloads, hopefully...only time will tell.

Triple7 · Post by **Triple7** » Sat Jan 17, 2009 5:38 pm

However, regionals and majors in the states have begun to recall furloughs and most of the red that was seen in fall has now turned to neutral yellow on many career outlooks. I think we are beginning to see a light at the end of a dark tunnel. unless i am being too optimistic. Whats all this talk about this pilot shortage thats coming?

Slipster · Post by **Slipster** » Sat Jan 17, 2009 10:43 pm

Like Doc said,

The Float Drivers probably stand to see it a little easier than the rest for the next 1 to 2 years. Its my understanding that most of the folks who book their fishing/ hunting trips do it 1 to 2 yrs in advance ... that said I noticed a decline summer 2008 and the tips sure werent there in abundance.

..

But that said the great hype and uncertainty around this economic debacle is sure to create a lag in job openings. I too am wondering where this pilot shortage is? Why are all the boomers hanging on so damn tight?

Lost Lake · Post by **Lost Lake** » Sat Jan 17, 2009 11:54 pm

Slipster wrote: Why are all the boomers hanging on so damn tight?

Cause they are finally making decent wages and want to collect the rewards after all the poor paying years. Can't blame them!

North Shore · Post by **North Shore** » Sun Jan 18, 2009 3:44 am

Try the early/mid '90's for hard times - IIRC 1500multi to fly f/o at Bearskin. Where i learned to fly, on the West Coast, one of the instructors was on layoff from AC. IIRC, in ~ 1990, Air CAnada was laying off people with 10 years seniority in YWG. Yes, things have come to a grinding halt, but they haven't really gone backward yet.
And for those of you with some time thinking about packing it in - don't. By the time things start going the other way, and you have got current again, you'll be 6 months behind where you would have been had you stuck it out..

fire flyer · Post by **fire flyer** » Sun Jan 18, 2009 9:19 am

I dunno, seems a certain company flying tankers in BC, Alberta, Yukon and Alaska are in need of at least six pilots. May not be year 'round work but pays like it. One need not even be as seasoned as lots of jobs ask but you do need a "diverse portfolio"...er I mean rounded background. Kind of like most things in life, those who have (by accident, plan or luck) a wide variety of skills to offer an employer will generally get the gig. Even if they don't have a/c over 12,500 for example, they may in the future so would rather have people in place that have done the job. Recently employers have had fewer options when hiring pilots thus affecting the scope of their business i.e. "We can't buy aircraft type 'X'...who's gonna fly it?” Or better yet (and I heard this one twice as the boss was venting over "pops") "I can't get ride of that guy without grounding a machine". Lots of us have been threw the dark days of the 90's, slow down after 911 and will weather this "rain shower" warm and dry thanks to hard work in the good times and not holding the management ransom when they could...the Cheif will remember. It still suprises me how many phone calls I get this time of the year asking for a "good word" to my boss from guys who when asked about "that time you refused to go and do..." say "Oh, but I would never do that at your company"...yeah sure. Piss off.

FF

Slipster · Post by **Slipster** » Sun Jan 18, 2009 3:21 pm

I guess so Lost Lake

I supose that if you were paid fairly you could afford to fly less and if I were paid fairly I could save money and thus leave a space for the pilots eager to fill my seat. Catch 22

I sure hope Doc was right about the speacialty flying being safe for a couple of years. I just dont have enough requirements to compete and get my foot in the door for the Fire bombing. Which sounds like it would be a hell of a good experience. I got a bunch of flying that would be practical when it comes to the actuall fire bombing. But not good enough to compete on paper these days.

Cat Driver · Post by **Cat Driver** » Sun Jan 18, 2009 6:17 pm

Fire bombing for a stable company or one of the provinces is a good career, it has draw backs but what job dosen't.

The biggest advantage is you have a short season and can use your off time to make money out side of fire bombing.

The difficulty of the flying is sometimes over rated but that is normal for pilots.

fire flyer · Post by **fire flyer** » Sun Jan 18, 2009 7:53 pm

I can't believe I am even thinking this but here goes...., I agree with you...my god! The worst trait we have as pilots(and the air tanker world is as bad as any) is the constant attempt to convince people that "I" am doing a job to a level that very few others can. I wish this was the case so I could demmand more money, less work hours etc. Fact is we are doing a job that many can do equally as well and this is why the pay/working conditions etc are what they are. Hence my cringing when we on this forum get ranting about wages for instance. Like all the other flying jobs I have had, the toughest part of fire work is getting along with co-workers some of whom will be a generation or two older/younger, dispatchers, loaders etc. If you can do that then you are 90% of the way there.

FF

Cat Driver · Post by **Cat Driver** » Sun Jan 18, 2009 8:31 pm

I can't believe I am even thinking this but here goes...., I agree with you...my god!

Hell that is not that big a deal, after all every once in a while everyone says something someone else agrees with.

When I first started flying tankers I was super lucky to have been trained by bob Murdock who had just started Avalon Aviation.

He had given me my PBY and DC3 training years before at Austin airways.

So I never had to fly as a FO water bombing because Bob trained me to fly his first airplane for him.

I flew water bombers for fifteen years in both north and South America and found the job to be fun and not all that difficult as long as you kept ahead of the airplane and followed some simple rules.

If I had my career to do all over again water bombing would be one of the few jobs I would choose.