Continental Flt 3407 Crash at Buffalo/Niagra Intr'nal

[CP]

Sounds like a rearward C of G might be beneficial to ward off a tail stall. Great video!

[Lost in Saigon]

I am not so sure the tail stalled.

Help me out here..... If a tail stalls on any aircraft, the nose will drop, but the wings do not stall. The aircraft will continue to have considerable forward movement. I suppose it might even continue to nose over until inverted.

But the accident scene, and eyewitness accounts, suggest a classic stall/spin scenario.

Who's with me on this?

[_dwj_]

You have said this a few times now. The NTSB announced that the crew was discussing the icing conditions, did the crew also say that they were in severe ice.


From the AIM

Severe The rate of accumulation is such that de-icing or anti-icing equipment fails to reduce or control the hazard. Immediate diversion is necessary.

I don`t recall that the NTSB said the crew mentioned severe ice. There was no mention of severe ice in the ATC audio tapes.

Did I miss something.

Discussion of ice on the wings and windscreen does not meet the definition of severe ice.

I'm going on this quote from the NTSB:

According to a cockpit voice recorder recovered from the crash scene, the crew discussed "significant ice buildup, ice on the windshield and leading edge of the wings," shortly before the crash, said NTSB spokesman Steve Chealander. He said the flight data recorder revealed that the de-ice system was on the "on" positition.

It's not definitive, but when they say "ice on the leading edge of the wings" and "significant ice buildup" that certainly sounds like severe icing. Of course we don't know (and will probably never know) exactly how much ice was on the leading edge.

Perhaps I am being unfair in pinning blame on the pilots. It just seems such an unnecessary waste of life when we already know so much about the effects of icing.

[mcconnell14]

CNN "Experts" say plane crashed in a flat, not nose down attitude...

When you stall, you lower the nose to recover speed and control, so an interesting twist in what happened.

What would happen if a stall occurs, and you pull back on the control column....


Let's hear your comments...

i heard that aswell..the part i didnt understand was is that they showed a animation of the crash...well in the animation the plane is shown goin into a very steep nose down position...so i dont know what to beleive from them..fox isnt any better, i gotta say the best coverage and info i got was from my local news station the not from CNN or fox

[crazy_aviator]

One recent submitter ventured that maybe the tail boots went U/S. this and many other possibilities could result in the departure from controlled flight . Eyewitness reports say one thing and the NTSB say another , maybe they are BOTH right ! A plane in a spin can be flat and near vertical and wing low and wings level, pointing in the opposite direction ,during the departure and attempted recovery prior to impact . I would venture to hypothesize pilot error followed by mechanical issue(s) followed by training followed by a hundred other ( human factors) things contributing to this accident. But who am I GOD ?? NO . therefore , i know nothing !!!

[Letterhead]

FlyintheBug:

There is a huge difference between a 400 hour F18 pilot and a 3000 hour regional pilot in the U.S.

The biggest difference is that the F18 pilot has undergone an extensive selection program, is physically fit, is generally a graduate of an engineering program at a military college, and he receives millions of dollars worth of flight training. Most regional pilots in the states don't generally have this kind of education or training. From what I have seen, if you have a pulse and will work for 18k per year you can be a regional pilot in the U.S.

Low time pilots can be exceptionally competent, your military example rings true. Conversely, high time pilots with no education and lousy training aren't who you want sitting in the pointy end.

Sullenberger exemplifies a professional aviator. Good training, a solid education and lots of experience.

[CP]

Low time pilots can be exceptionally competent, your military example rings true. Conversely, high time pilots with no education and lousy training aren't who you want sitting in the pointy end.

Low time pilots can be exceptionally incompetent.

[Cat Driver]

Once again may I suggest.

The problem with skills levels and decision making abilities is person specific, not time specific.

[rampking]

With all the talk of low time with these guys I would like to know what most would assume the the avg time is for skippers on 705 turbo props???????

King

[GForce]

Is anyone able to post any published Sigmets, Pireps or Metars for the Buffalo/Niagara airport for that specific time period. I am just wondering what may have been mentioned in their weather package (re:degree of icing) for the area around Buffalo. I don't have an approach chart for the Buffalo/Niagara airport. Does anyone know the altitude of the airport and surrounding area (MSA)? I'm more interested in knowing how much altitude the pilots had to try to recover from 2300'asl (or were they already on the glideslope?) to ground level.

[BTD]

You have said this a few times now. The NTSB announced that the crew was discussing the icing conditions, did the crew also say that they were in severe ice.


From the AIM

Severe The rate of accumulation is such that de-icing or anti-icing equipment fails to reduce or control the hazard. Immediate diversion is necessary.

I don`t recall that the NTSB said the crew mentioned severe ice. There was no mention of severe ice in the ATC audio tapes.

Did I miss something.

Discussion of ice on the wings and windscreen does not meet the definition of severe ice.

I'm going on this quote from the NTSB:

According to a cockpit voice recorder recovered from the crash scene, the crew discussed "significant ice buildup, ice on the windshield and leading edge of the wings," shortly before the crash, said NTSB spokesman Steve Chealander. He said the flight data recorder revealed that the de-ice system was on the "on" positition.

It's not definitive, but when they say "ice on the leading edge of the wings" and "significant ice buildup" that certainly sounds like severe icing. Of course we don't know (and will probably never know) exactly how much ice was on the leading edge.

Perhaps I am being unfair in pinning blame on the pilots. It just seems such an unnecessary waste of life when we already know so much about the effects of icing.

The only reason I bring this up is because earlier you made a pretty definative statement saying that they were in severe ice. The term "significant ice" could imply that they are just seeing more then they usually do. It does not imply severe ice.

When talking to the other crew member, in flight, I have said before, "that we are picking up significant ice." But if I were to make a report to ATC, I still may classify it as moderate depending on which definition it meets.

Unless the crew said severe ice (which i haven't heard reports of yet, maybe they did) then a lot more data needs to be collected before putting the nail in their coffin.

[Highflyinpilot]

I would also like to know what is "right time" to be right and left seat on an -8

[_dwj_]

Here is more info from the NY Times:

According to investigators, the chronology of the last minute of flight, as described so far, unfolded this way: As the plane flew about 1,600 feet above the ground, southwest toward a runway at the Buffalo airport, the crew lowered the landing gear. Twenty seconds later, a crew member set a lever to extend the flaps, movable metal panels on the back of each wing, to 15 degrees, a standard step before landing.

Immediately, the airplane’s nose began to pitch radically up and down, and soon after, the airplane rolled left and right. A stick shaker, a device that warns that the plane is flying so slowly that its wings are about to stall, losing lift, gave its warning by shaking the yoke in the pilots’ hands. Then the stick pusher came on, a system that literally takes matters out of the pilots’ hands by pushing the yoke forward, to push the nose down and increase airspeed to avoid stall.

The crew increased engine power, but never regained control: the plane hit the house, having spun around to face northeast, although it had been flying southwest. It happened so fast that the flaps never made it to 15 degrees.

And the plane was moving so slowly that it hit only a single house in the densely settled neighborhood. A garage behind the house remained intact.

And:

"It sounds like they really were into a deep stall situation," said Bill Voss, president of the non-profit Flight Safety Foundation

Am I right in thinking that it is virtually impossible to recover from a deep stall at low level?

[Old fella]

"Sullenberger exemplifies a professional aviator. Good training, a solid education and lots of experience. "

Excuse me! One doesn't have to be extensivly military trained, graduate degree in applied science/engineering from MIT as well as 2 lunar landings as PIC to figure out the best option in that particular case. A controlled splashdown in the river close to shore with boats in close proximity or head first in a residential area.

The man did indeed do a fantastic job and is a credit to his profession!!

[yfly]

Once again may I suggest.

The problem with skills levels and decision making abilities is person specific, not time specific.

That is very true and worthy of repeat. There is however, no better teacher than first hand experience which as you know, most often comes with time in the seat.

[officejet]

You have said this a few times now. The NTSB announced that the crew was discussing the icing conditions, did the crew also say that they were in severe ice.


From the AIM

Severe The rate of accumulation is such that de-icing or anti-icing equipment fails to reduce or control the hazard. Immediate diversion is necessary.

I don`t recall that the NTSB said the crew mentioned severe ice. There was no mention of severe ice in the ATC audio tapes.

Did I miss something.

Discussion of ice on the wings and windscreen does not meet the definition of severe ice.

I'm going on this quote from the NTSB:

According to a cockpit voice recorder recovered from the crash scene, the crew discussed "significant ice buildup, ice on the windshield and leading edge of the wings," shortly before the crash, said NTSB spokesman Steve Chealander. He said the flight data recorder revealed that the de-ice system was on the "on" positition.

It's not definitive, but when they say "ice on the leading edge of the wings" and "significant ice buildup" that certainly sounds like severe icing. Of course we don't know (and will probably never know) exactly how much ice was on the leading edge.

Perhaps I am being unfair in pinning blame on the pilots. It just seems such an unnecessary waste of life when we already know so much about the effects of icing.

Yes you are being unfair.

Yes it is an unnecessary waste of life.

You don't know anything about the effects of icing because you don't operate in it.

You have to stop this passing of judgement.

You are making yourself look like an complete asshole with these comments...

I can appreciate that you are taking a sincere interest in the name of safety...if so...follow along and read and allow yourself to be educated.

Like I said earlier...all I'm asking you to do is lay off criticizing the departed. It's really bad taste.

You are a private pilot and I'm sure a very competent one. You would not trust nor would you want someone unqualified to operate your plane. In the same regard, there is a very experienced team of qualified personel working the case to provide real answers that will improve safety.

Ice builds up on airplanes. It happens. We operate in a cold climate. Airlines are in the business of transportating people as safely as they can on schedule. Bluebird days summer or winter are thankfully the majority of days, but shitty days will occur and the world does not stop as a result.

Back off the crew.

Read this thread and learn.

Yes you did start a shitstorm. But not because of why you think. You still haven't grasped the concept that you're criticizing real people who had real lives who did not show up at work that day planning to end up the at the brunt end of some ignorant comments from a hick in Canada who claims to be speaking on behalf of safety.

congrats on posting your initials.

[officejet]

If an error does occur, we now recognize that there was a failure (or more frequently multiple failures) in the system or process. Those failures are what let the pilot down!

What warm and fuzzy, politically correct crap, that statement is!

I am following this with interest. It's time everybody reviews whatever you have been taught about tail plane ice, letting the auto pilot fly while in ice, changing flight configuration while in ice, etc. I have no idea what the cause of this very unfortunate accident was, but reviewing the above information would not be a bad idea.

Doc,

Great post...if there is anything that we can learn from this tonight that will improve our operating procedures tomorrow it's exactly that....

[stupido]

I am not so sure the tail stalled.

Help me out here..... If a tail stalls on any aircraft, the nose will drop, but the wings do not stall. The aircraft will continue to have considerable forward movement. I suppose it might even continue to nose over until inverted.

But the accident scene, and eyewitness accounts, suggest a classic stall/spin scenario.

Who's with me on this?

I am with you on this one. God speed!!!!!

[contrite]

Let’s all take a moment for a bit of a thought-experiment. Let’s imagine that we have Marvin Renslow and Rebecca Shaw sitting in the room with us, having gone through what they have gone through but miraculously able to speak with us. Would we have the gall to say most of what has been going on this thread to them, in person? If not, then how is proper to write these things now, even behind the veil of anonymity on the internet?

As officejet wrote, read this thread and learn. But not about flying, since until the NTSB releases the final report none of us have any idea of how this accident happened. Rather, learn about human nature; how we elevate ourselves by pulling others down, how the suffering of others is the easiest to take, how we take a form of commercial entertainment as fact. Mostly, learn about our tendency to whistle past the graveyard as we think that it would never happen to us because we’re so smart and capable. We bask in the reflected glow of Sully, and distance ourselves from the mere mortals. Design flaw or human mistake, the result is the same; what doesn’t vary is our complacency and over-estimation of our own skills and knowledge.

And don’t say “God”, stupido; you’ll have the atheist horde upon you who think that they control everything all of the time, but will grudgingly admit that once in a while that they were “lucky”. “I am alive today more through luck than anything else.” – that luck started the day we were born in a country where we can publicly say what we think, no matter how absurd, without being dragged off to the gulag for re-education; or where we can choose such a wonderful career as professional aviation. We just take that luck for granted.

[_dwj_]

You don't know anything about the effects of icing because you don't operate in it.

Sorry, but that comment is just complete and utter bullshit. Every pilot, whether private or commercial, must know about icing even if they have never flown in it. Ice affects my cessna 172 much more than your jet because I don't have deicing boots, heated windshield, etc. Therefore if I encounter significant icing I will be in a lot deeper shit than you will be.

Ice builds up on airplanes. It happens. We operate in a cold climate. Airlines are in the business of transportating people as safely as they can on schedule. Bluebird days summer or winter are thankfully the majority of days, but shitty days will occur and the world does not stop as a result.

Even with decing boots you can still encounter icing that is beyond the capability of the plane. If you get a significant build-up of icing on the leading edges you are in serious trouble no matter what plane you are in. If you don't understand this simple fact, you should not be flying a plane.

[FamilyGuy]

Once again may I suggest.

The problem with skills levels and decision making abilities is person specific, not time specific.

That is very true and worthy of repeat. There is however, no better teacher than first hand experience which as you know, most often comes with time in the seat.

The problem with defining "experience" by merely relying on total hours is that it is not at all indicative of what you seek to rate.

3000 hours of sunny down south turbo prop time really doesn't prepare one for hard core IMC complete with icing. Or does it?

Back in my gliding days we also considered # of t/o's and lndgs. 100's of hours thermaling isn't quite the same "experience" as hundreds of hours doing 7 minute fam flights.
I'm with Cat. Hours are not everything - I'm more interested in the person than the log book.

[_dwj_]

The only reason I bring this up is because earlier you made a pretty definative statement saying that they were in severe ice. The term "significant ice" could imply that they are just seeing more then they usually do. It does not imply severe ice.

When talking to the other crew member, in flight, I have said before, "that we are picking up significant ice." But if I were to make a report to ATC, I still may classify it as moderate depending on which definition it meets.

Unless the crew said severe ice (which i haven't heard reports of yet, maybe they did) then a lot more data needs to be collected before putting the nail in their coffin.

But if there is significant ice on the leading edges, that would by definition be severe. You are right - their use of the word "significant" may or may not be the same as mine or yours. But considering that they did have icing, and the plane stalled as soon as they put the flaps down, it would appear that they did in fact have "severe" icing and it was the act of putting down the flaps when severe icing was present on the leading edges that caused the fatal accident.

[Cat Driver]

Contrite, I really have not seen anyone try and suggest that the two pilots on that flight did anything that could be taken as putting them down for their actions.

As to the God versus luck thing that is a no win argument because neither are tangible.

I use the expression " luck " when I escape situations that were beyond my control to have avoided.

I don't credit God with having been in control of events because if he exists he is random in his actions. For instance if I were to go flying tomorrow and have an engine failure and was forced to land in an area that wrecked the airplane but I got out unhurt. If I were to thank god for saving me from injury or death I would then have to wonder why he allowed the engine to fail in the first place.

[Doc]

But if there is significant ice on the leading edges, that would by definition be severe.

Actually, "significant" and "severe" are two different animals. You can accumulate significant ice at a very slow rate of accumulation. Over time.
Severe on the other hand, refers to the rate of accumulation. A significant amount of ice building rapidly.

[Cat Driver]

Severe on the other hand, refers to the rate of accumulation. A significant amount of ice building rapidly.

Generally encountered in freezing rain which can be quite localized and builds up faster than the airplanes anti / de-icing equipment can handle.