Continental Flt 3407 Crash at Buffalo/Niagra Intr'nal

[_dwj_]

It's experience together with training and education. If you want to call it an educated guess, go ahead. But following that line of thought every time you take off it's an educated guess. You're "guessing" that the flap setting you used that you were taught during your training and education will result in liftoff...

That's not a good comparison because we have tables and calculations that tell us how much takeoff/landing distance to use. Obviously conditions may not be exactly what is calculated which is why we use a safety factor. Icing is more like going outside the C of G. If things go bad you will likely die, and experience isn't likely to help you to determine when the plane is dangerously iced.

[flyinthebug]

John Nances thoughts in the final min of this media report are worth listening to.. and right inline with all the discussion on the use of a/p in icing conditions and his thoughts on what led up to the crash...and we spent the first 7 pages of this thread discussing tail plane stalls. The NTSB nows is certain it was NOT a tailplane stall..it was a wing stall (according to NTSB)

Fly safe all.

http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/ ... &ch=224106

[merlin]

Is it normal to put gear down in the Dash-8 before flaps 15? Just curious, I would have thought that it would be flaps 15 then gear down?

[Stinky]

Is it normal to put gear down in the Dash-8 before flaps 15? Just curious, I would have thought that it would be flaps 15 then gear down?

It's normal in that plane.

[Cat Driver]

If things go bad you will likely die, and experience isn't likely to help you to determine when the plane is dangerously iced.

How did you reach that conclusion?

[ditar]

...experience isn't likely to help you to determine when the plane is dangerously iced.

I'm pretty sure experience is exactly what will help you determine that.

[Stinky]

Here's an articl from MSNBC; I thought this line was noticibly stupid.

Investigators did not offer an explanation, but the orientation raised the possibility that the pilot was fighting an icy airplane. Air safety guidelines says a pilot can try a 180-degree turn to rid a plane of ice.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29194109/

[double-j]

There is a huge difference in "large jets do it all the time" to a non-normal landing where a PA was made and the fire trucks were following? Does that sound like something that is done all the time??

Perhaps the 737 isn't a good example because we are talking about turboprops like the Q400 here which presumably have a shorter landing distance than a 737 when using zero flap.

Correct, I was just commenting on your previous example.

jj

[Highflyinpilot]

if a 180 had been initiated by the pilots wouldnt we hear about it in the atc tapes?

[Doc]

Here's an articl from MSNBC; I thought this line was noticibly stupid.

Investigators did not offer an explanation, but the orientation raised the possibility that the pilot was fighting an icy airplane. Air safety guidelines says a pilot can try a 180-degree turn to rid a plane of ice.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29194109/

This is an extremely misleading statement typical of the press. It sounds to the "layman" that this magic turn will suddenly make everything alright. We know this not to be the case. Unless they picked up the ice just minutes ago, and it really is no option on an approach.

[FICU]

From the NTSB a few minutes ago...

31 degrees nose up followed by a 45 degree pitch down with a 46 degree left roll followed by a 105 degree right roll. Speed was 134 CAS prior to gear and flaps and 100 CAS on the last reading.

Shaker and pusher were activated and max power was applied as a corrective measure...

[Percey]

I'm trying to find the weather during the event. Anyone find a link to metars/sigmets/airmets/pireps for the area? I heard the atc tapes and I found it interesting that they immediately started asking other flights about ice...

[Highflyinpilot]

Just saw on the news right from the NTSB interview a few moments ago saying possible pilot error .

Dont flame me, That's what the NTSB official said due to usage of autopilot in the conditions.

[CAL]

any guys with -8 experience to comment on this?...you guys use AP in ice?...come on...
really easy to blame the crew...I dont buy it...

[_dwj_]

If things go bad you will likely die, and experience isn't likely to help you to determine when the plane is dangerously iced.

How did you reach that conclusion?

Because, as far as I am aware (and I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong) when you reach the point where your plane is dangerously iced and you end up stalling, the result is almost always fatal. So obviously that experience won't do you any good, as it will only last another 30 seconds.

Please explain how you think that experience can tell you when you are dangerously iced.

[Valhalla]

any guys with -8 experience to comment on this?...you guys use AP in ice?...come on...
really easy to blame the crew...I dont buy it...

I've flown the Q400 and the classic Dash-8's that have the basically the same de-ice system. I've also experienced severe ice (as defined earlier) in the Twin Otter. There is no other turbo-prop I'd rather be in than the Q400 in heavy ice. The Q400 has got TONS of power, and is excellent in ice. Having said that though, ice is a potential threat in any airplane, and needs to be managed appropriately.

Speed is your friend in ice. On any airplane.

[_dwj_]

Here is the article from the NY Daily News:

Flight 3407 was on autopilot when it went down in icy weather near Buffalo, indicating that the pilot may have violated federal safety recommendations and the airline's own policy, a federal official said Sunday.

National Transportation Safety Board investigator Steve Chealander said the company that operated the flight recommends pilots fly manually in icy conditions.

"You may be able in a manual mode to sense something sooner than the autopilot can sense it," Chealander said.

Pilots are required to switch off the autopilot device do when facing severe ice.

Flight 3407 pilot Marvin Renslow reported "significant" ice on the wings and windshield just before crashing on Thursday night near Buffalo, killing 50.

[Stinky]

These guys are going to get slaughtered in the press unfortunately. It sounds like company procedures are no autopilot in severe ice. It's a little subjective, pilots reported moderate ice and as far as I know ATC said nothing about severe, neither did the wx reports. None of it matters, the company has their get out of jail free card.

[ajet32]

first off _dwj_ click your heels 3 times and go f__k your self you are an idiot!!
Second where does it say in the limitations of either a Dash 8-300 or the new Dash 9Q400 that use of the Auto Pilot is prohibited in icing conditions. A reference please. I am typed on these airplanesand I am not aware of such a limitation. I am not saying that hand flying isn't the right thing to do ro that it shouldn't be done. Just show me a limitation that says not to use the autopilot. If it should be a limitation then Transport Canada and the FAA and JAA should be held accountable as they certified the aircraft. Flame away !

[Four1oh]

Does the Q have autothrottles?

[Highflyinpilot]

No flames, good point. Id like to know if there are any limitation on this, if it is actually in writting somewhere.

[Doc]

Please explain how you think that experience can tell you when you are dangerously iced.

First off....JJJ...really sorry man, you were correct.

_dwj_ where do you come up with this horse crap?? Please, step away from your computer. Believe me when I tell you, experience will tell you when you have too much ice....that's why they call it experience. It seems to be a big issue with this accident. An old gray haired guy in that airplane might have made it a non issue, but we'll never know, will we?

[ajet32]

No autothrottles. Has FADEC so how that reacts going slow with the power back . I guess we'll find out.

[Cat Driver]

Please explain how you think that experience can tell you when you are dangerously iced.

_dwj_ what good would it do to explain to you if you already are so sure you know all about aircraft icing in flight?

The best I can do is tell you that from having flown airplanes in icing conditions for decades I personally believe that I can tell what type of icing I am picking up and how best to deal with the situation.

I believe you suggested that I should not give my opinions over on the flight training forums because you did not like my delivery, why would you be wanting my opinions here?

[ditar]

Please explain how you think that experience can tell you when you are dangerously iced.

_dwj_, you are reducing your credibility continually with every outlandish statement that you make. You are not winning any of us over to your side. By your own admission you have never operated in icing conditions yet you make it seem like you are the authority on the subject. I by no means am anywhere near as seasoned as some of the other posters here, but trust me, I know from my own experience when the amount of ice my plane is picking up starts to become problematic. In the future that same experience will help me determine when I need to take action before the situation becomes dangerous. Thankfully, through what I hope was prudence and good planning, and probably some luck somewhere, I have never had a severe enough icing encounter that put me and my aircraft in jeopardy. But trust me I would know it if it happened.