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speedair · Post by **speedair** » Mon Feb 28, 2005 12:00 pm

Airlines are scrambling to secure qualified pilots ahead of a mass exodus of aging captains from 2007 to 2011.

Airlines are scrambling to deal with a growing shortage of captains to pilot their planes.

The challenge of staffing the cockpit is a new one for an industry usually preoccupied with filling passenger seats.

The ride starts to get rough in 2007, when the number of retiring pilots will increase sharply as baby boomers begin handing in their wings.

From 2007 to 2011, the transport ministry expects an annual shortfall of between 50 and 100 pilots.

It couldn't be happening at a worse time. Tokyo's Haneda airport opens its fourth runway in 2009, and airlines plan to start more flights.

Start-up carriers will face the heaviest buffeting from a pilot shortage.

According to industry sources, it takes 10 years or more and 300 million yen to train a pilot to become a captain of large jets.

As a result, the fledgling airlines have been forced to rely on foreign pilots and any veterans they manage to poach from major carriers-not an easy task given the reluctance of Japanese pilots to switch employers even after retirement.

The shrinking pool of captains, who totaled 3,200 of 5,800 licensed pilots at domestic airlines in 2003, will only make the task harder.

``The challenge for start-ups is to outdo rival start-ups to lure veteran pilots,'' said a senior official of Star Flyer Inc., a Kita-Kyushu-based carrier planning to begin operations in 2006.

The pool of foreign pilots is also limited because non-Japanese nationals are required to obtain a domestic license and undergo further training before they can take the helm of a domestic plane.

Skymark Airlines Co. is better off than most discount carriers. The company began training its own captains and co-pilots in 1999 after it launched operations the previous year. Its first homegrown captain graduates in March.

``We've somehow managed to be ready for 2007,'' said Takashi Ide, Skymark's vice chairman.

Major carriers have taken corrective action, ramping up their pilot training programs.

Japan Airlines Corp. boosted its intake of trainees to 70 in fiscal 2004, compared to 40 in fiscal 2000.

All Nippon Airways Co. raised its ranks of trainees to 50 in fiscal 2003, from fewer than 10 the year before. For three years from fiscal 2006, this will be raised again to between 60 and 65.

Even so, these efforts alone won't cover the shortfall. From 2007, as many as 300 pilots will be retiring every year, more than double the current rate.

The JAL group has already re-hired 50 retired captains. ANA, which has only 10 retirees flying as captains, says re-hires will be an important option as a supplementary source of captains.

To help airlines, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport raised the cap on retirement age for captains to 65 from 63 in September.

Some airlines have started to relax criteria for hiring pilots.

Until now, major airlines have recruited their pilots from the government-affiliated Civil Aviation College or taken university graduates for in-company training.

But their subsidiaries serving local routes have started to hire from a wider scope of candidates.

ANA affiliate Air Next Co. in December started to lower the required academic record in its screening standards for co-pilot candidates to high school graduates, the first in the industry to do so.

Starting in fiscal 2005, JAL Express Co., a JAL subsidiary, will consider individuals with private pilot licenses for co-pilot candidates, in addition to those with commercial pilot licenses.

There are 10,000 licensed pilots in Japan, including those holding a private pilot's license, a fraction of the 550,000 in the United States. Japan has only three state-accredited pilot-training institutes, compared to more than 500 in the United States.

``The government needs to have a long-term policy to increase the number of pilots,'' said aviation industry analyst Kazuki Sugiura.

A transport ministry panel is working on solutions for the pilot shortage. Its interim recommendations, due out soon, are expected to include expanded use of retired pilots and foreign pilots and beefing up private-sector pilot training facilities.(IHT/Asahi: February 23,2005)

Legacy · Post by **Legacy** » Mon Feb 28, 2005 12:05 pm

OMG not this crap AGAIN. has been going on for the last 15 years

Flying Low · Post by **Flying Low** » Mon Feb 28, 2005 12:14 pm

The flight schools must be soooooo happy!!!!!!!!!!

shitdisturber · Post by **shitdisturber** » Mon Feb 28, 2005 12:40 pm

Note that this little tidbit only mentions Japanese airports? Since we're all gaijin to them; it's irrelevant, every last pilot in Japan would have to be dead and buried before any North American was hired.

wha happen · Post by **wha happen** » Mon Feb 28, 2005 1:02 pm

I cant believe that people are still buying in to this pilot shortage nonsence. I will be surprised to ever see a pilot shortage. Anyone disagree???

mcrit · Post by **mcrit** » Mon Feb 28, 2005 1:24 pm

What a load of shit. Someone find the original poster and have him shot.

Vickers vanguard · Post by **Vickers vanguard** » Mon Feb 28, 2005 3:00 pm

I already took care of him

Cod Father · Post by **Cod Father** » Mon Feb 28, 2005 11:17 pm

Nooooooooooo!!!!!!!! Stop the lie!!!!!!

pilotbc69 · Post by **pilotbc69** » Tue Mar 01, 2005 9:55 pm

hmmm....I don't remember the last time I saw a resume for Pau Chaing coming through the fax. Maybe they do have shortages...

We certainly do not.

iwillflyajet · Post by **iwillflyajet** » Wed Mar 02, 2005 6:59 am

I can never see a pilot shortage happening and I would put a few beers on the table to back that one up!!

Pilotbc69 do the girls in the picture have sore arms because I am waiting for them to get tired and show us something

hz2p · Post by **hz2p** » Wed Mar 02, 2005 7:08 am

Where's ATAC ... come on, pilot shortage!!!

Didn't we do the arithmetic on another thread that showed that given TC's pilot stats, there were already 5 young ATPLs ready to step into each seat that will be vacated by retiring boomers over the next 10 years?

iwillflyajet · Post by **iwillflyajet** » Wed Mar 02, 2005 7:16 am

In New Zealand the press have been pushing that there is going to be a pilot shortage.
statistically the chance of one of these morons ( the press) being right that there is going to be a shortage, is about the same as the earth deviating from its orbit and being sucked intowards the sun.

if only they were right.

xsbank · Post by **xsbank** » Wed Mar 02, 2005 7:29 am

This industry is cyclical - surely you have all figured that out by now. There are signs that its turning around again (late as it is after 911) such as the scarcity of used business jets, long line-ups for new ones and the fact that the regionals in the US are having job fairs. It was the top of a cycle that got United pilots that huge raise that (briefly) made them the highest paid in the world.

There will always be pilot shortages such that training bonds will go away temporarily and companies will not hesitate to provide that elusive PPC, and low-timers will get checked out, but as surely as it goes up it will go down again.

What is the current market for AMEs? In 2000 they were getting their wages bid up because the industry cannot operate without them and they were scarce. Where are they now?

Japan has always been a closed market for pilots and therefore easier to predict. That too will change.

A long-term high in the cycle will see wages rise again, as they are low now due to the depression in aviation and the over-capacity.

Can you sue for the return of your training bond if the company goes to the wall? Are you considered as a secured creditor?