Farley's back

[swervin]

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/06/ ... nsion.html

[CanadianEh]

This is probably not a good thing...

[Brick Head]

This is probably not a good thing...

Depends......

Upon your understanding of the present situation.

Like I have said in the past. All issues, all stakeholders, affecting Ac will be dealt with. Either before CCAA, or in CCAA.

tick tock

7weeks

[Flightlevels]

I'll bite. What's in 7 weeks?

[tonysoprano]

WJ is buying AC and you finally get a hot meal.

[Jaques Strappe]

I found this kind of interesting. It almost looks to me like Milton might actually be concerned about his reputation. ( Naaahhh, more like he is too arrogant to admit anything ) He is quietly buying up stock in ACE in an effort to out vote West Capital and Genuity Capital who want him replaced on the BOD at ACE. The real interesting part is that the Co-Founder of Genuity Capital is none other than our buddy Calin.

http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/st ... 5/GIStory/


Now the vultures themselves are actually fighting. This is such a septic place, a part of me is hoping the entire thing falls like a house of cards because quite frankly, I am tired of working for these clowns.

[abc xyz]

I think George has got it right.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYIC0eZY ... re=related

[sportingrifle]

Jaques.....

+1.

[Brick Head]

I'll bite. What's in 7 weeks?

It references a line in the sand. Not solved by then? CCAA or Liquidation will take place.

The problem?

The issue is much bigger than most know. The AC unions are convinced just giving the pension demands to AC will not solve the problem. Just delay it. On that point they are proposing an amended pension payment schedule on the condition that AC fixes everything else. No fix? No pension relief. What is the point of giving to something that is not viable? Creating a long term viable airline is much easier done in CCAA, and absent our present owners that are only looking for a quick buck.

What does this means if the unions stick to their guns? Once AC has a deal with the unions that the gov't approves, AC then will have to get busy with everyone else. If they don't? AC will fail and ACE will lose it's 75% stake in AC.

It is partly why Farley is present. These negot's with the unions needed to get done yesterday because of the time constraint. The company has been trying to squeeze the time frame to put pressure on the unions and gov't to just cave into the demands with no conditions attached. AC is clearly not trying to create long term viability here. Only short term stock pop.

So poof in comes Farley. Turns out the gov't is sick of this too. They want long term viability.

I gave weeks instead of a date. As we are all very aware the gov't has the power to move those lines. For example pension funding deadline for Q2 was just move out 2 weeks. I didn't understand the reasoning the OFSI had, but it just helped moved the line in the sand.

I have said this a couple of times now. The contracts that AC has with former AC entities will either be dealt with voluntarily before CCAA or dictated in CCAA. Pension relief with no other fixes will only delay the that eventuality.

[twinpratts]

WJ is buying AC and you finally get a hot meal.

LMAO!

[Jaques Strappe]

I'll bite. What's in 7 weeks?

It references a line in the sand. Not solved by then? CCAA or Liquidation will take place.

The problem?

The issue is much bigger than most know. The AC unions are convinced just giving the pension demands to AC will not solve the problem. Just delay it. On that point they are proposing an amended pension payment schedule on the condition that AC fixes everything else. No fix? No pension relief. What is the point of giving to something that is not viable? Creating a long term viable airline is much easier done in CCAA, and absent our present owners that are only looking for a quick buck.

What does this means if the unions stick to their guns? Once AC has a deal with the unions that the gov't approves, AC then will have to get busy with everyone else. If they don't? AC will fail and ACE will lose it's 75% stake in AC.

It is partly why Farley is present. These negot's with the unions needed to get done yesterday because of the time constraint. The company has been trying to squeeze the time frame to put pressure on the unions and gov't to just cave into the demands with no conditions attached. AC is clearly not trying to create long term viability here. Only short term stock pop.

So poof in comes Farley. Turns out the gov't is sick of this too. They want long term viability.

I gave weeks instead of a date. As we are all very aware the gov't has the power to move those lines. For example pension funding deadline for Q2 was just move out 2 weeks. I didn't understand the reasoning the OFSI had, but it just helped moved the line in the sand.

I have said this a couple of times now. The contracts that AC has with former AC entities will either be dealt with voluntarily before CCAA or dictated in CCAA. Pension relief with no other fixes will only delay the that eventuality.

Brick Head

Long term viability should be the answer and I have no doubt that the government is tired of this. However, I don't see it happening given the time frame. Milton has already pulled a fast one on them but I see another fast one coming. I may be a conspiracy theorist but I see something beginning to develop and possibly once again, the parties involved will be sleeping at the switch.

1) Nobody is going to buy Air Canada with the current pension obligation but the government has now appointed Farley to resolve it and quickly.
2) Calin has just been given one million new reasons to turn a quick buck.
3) The government is being lobbied hard to lift foreign ownership rules regarding Air Canada to 49%.
4) Emirates is lobbying hard to fly to Canada's major cities 7 days a week but is getting resistance.
5) Emirates has a massive aircraft order yet to be delivered. What is their plan with all those airframes?

Once this is all in place, realistically, Emirates could just buy 49% of Air Canada for probably the same cost as their lobbying efforts and voila, they now own all of Canada's international flying. Air Canada becomes what it has always dreamed of, a "Virtual" airline that only exists in selling tickets. A CPA is signed with Westjet to feed Emirates and there is really no need for Air Canada to exist any longer.

[Brick Head]

Jaques,

Buying AC does not fit into their business plan. They do not want AC routes. They have no desire to go YYZ - LHR. Actually there is probably not one route they would be interested in that we do. All they want is Canadian traffic to flow through Dubai to points onward. All they want is approval for the routes. Buying a 49% stake in AC does not create the automatic opportunity of unlimited Canada direct Dubai for Emirates. They still need gov't approval just like AC does today.

I actually think much of the world is slowly waking up to what Emirates is up to and the consequences to national carriers and national interest if gov'ts concede to their request for unlimited access. gotta look no further than the routes Emirates is now doing out of Australia.

You asked the right question. What does a country with the population of Dubai want with 650 widebodies. What is it again? they could move the countries entire population in 4 days with that? They want Dubai to become a financial gateway to the world.

[Jaques Strappe]

Brick Head

Hope you are right. Realizing that my post is rather a conspiracy point of view, I was thinking that Emirates would like nothing more than to re-route all of our Asian traffic via Dubai as well as markets into India. They could then dispose of routes they don't want and utilize slots at airports they do want to serve. Admittedly, I don't have all the knowledge of what would be required for them to do this. Something is up with all the airplanes they have on order however.

With everything within the Emirates group being subsidized by the state, there is no way anyone can compete and yes, your Australian example is proof of that pudding. Open skies are coming and they obviously want to be the dominant player. Some people have concerns with regard to Lufthansa investing in Air Canada but I am still very wary of Emirates and still cannot figure out how they think there is a demand to operate a 380 into Toronto 7 days a week selling first class tickets at 10 grand. The public has repeatedly demonstrated that they want the cheapest possible seat. I still believe there is more to this picture than meets the eye.

Cheers

[tonysoprano]

ACPA pres Capt. A. Wilson sent us an email a while back stating pretty much what Brick has summarized and a bit more. Our union has been watching this one very carefully for quite some time. Our Asian routes would take a huge hit. And that would only be the beginning.

[Old fella]

"....but I am still very wary of Emirates and still cannot figure out how they think there is a demand to operate a 380 into Toronto 7 days a week selling first class tickets at 10 grand...."


Yes... as if. 10G is the cost of our September 2010 Eastern Med cruise for 13 days which is a balcony stateroom aboard the Celebrity Stolice - all tax and surchargers in CND dollars. It also includes both our fares on your airline(AC) from YHZ to Rome return all tax and charges.

I will go out on a limb and say very few, if any vacationers (of which is a good percentage of us) would fork over that kind of cash for the privilege of first class on an overstuffed wide body with all the first class bells and whistles (even if there is a bottle of Chateau Petrus or DRC with the evening meal). Somebody is dreaming or sniffing too much camel dung and you Air Canada guys/gals gotta get off the conspiracy threads.

Your airline will still be around to fly myself and the better half to Rome and back..

[TyrellCorp]

10G is the cost of our September 2010 Eastern Med cruise for 13 days which is a balcony stateroom aboard the Celebrity Stolice - all tax and surchargers in CND dollars. It also includes both our fares on your airline(AC) from YHZ to Rome return all tax and charges.

NICE! That cruise sounds awesome. The Solstice is supposed to be a fabulous ship. The wife and I wanted to catch a cruise on her just before she left for Europe, but it didn't work out. Have to get on her when the opportunity presents itself again.

Have a great trip Old Fella!

And now back to our regularly scheduled programming....