Future of Expansion?

[Tinosky]

Good day,

With the new direct service from YYC-NRT offered by AC, do you think there is potential for future expansion of other Pacific routes? Besides taking some of the market away from YVR, It makes it very convenient. Especially for frequent flyers like myself who fly YYC-NRT (Via YVR) often. Let me just brainstorm on some possible routes that I think could be a possibility.

YYC-HKG
YYC-PEK
YYC-ICN
YYC-SYD

I do know for a fact that recently China has purchased Oil Sands here in Alberta for a staggering 4.65 Billion. 9% in Canada Syncrude Ltd. Could this Provide more traffic on these routes? I really think that convenience is key here and connections could start in YYC. Calgary Airport Authority did release a project proposal to the general public a couple weeks ago with future plans of Parallel Runway. I believe some development stages have already begun. With more passenger flow coming to YYC every year, do you think more routes like these will eventually open up?

What are your ideas?

Thanks,

[CanadianEh]

Good day,

With the new direct service from YYC-NRT offered by AC, do you think there is potential for future expansion of other Pacific routes? Besides taking some of the market away from YVR, It makes it very convenient. Especially for frequent flyers like myself who fly YYC-NRT (Via YVR) often. Let me just brainstorm on some possible routes that I think could be a possibility.

YYC-HKG
YYC-PEK
YYC-ICN
YYC-SYD

I do know for a fact that recently China has purchased Oil Sands here in Alberta for a staggering 4.65 Billion. 9% in Canada Syncrude Ltd. Could this Provide more traffic on these routes? I really think that convenience is key here and connections could start in YYC. Calgary Airport Authority did release a project proposal to the general public a couple weeks ago with future plans of Parallel Runway. I believe some development stages have already begun. With more passenger flow coming to YYC every year, do you think more routes like these will eventually open up?

What are your ideas?

Thanks,

All good ideas. I can see YYC-PEK or YYC-HKG starting, but probably not both. Maybe a seasonal YYC-SYD could be a hit, but I don't think there would be demand for year round.

[ScudRunner]

It will be a slow and steady growth over the next decade, as the city of Calgary grows so will the connections. I would not hold your breath for some of those posters have listed, AC is basically taking advantage of the situation with JAL.

The way I see it if AC can take more of the feed away from JAL in YVR by offering this service to get passengers that may have otherwise connected on WJ to YVR then on the NRT with JAL its a win win for AC. With JAL in bankruptcy they may be forced to cut back YVR service if loads cannot maintain profitability and AC will gain market share.

NRT offers great connections to pretty much anywhere in the world, especially in Asia and I would think the majority of "new" traffic over to china with the latest oil patch deal would just connected out of NRT. However with regards to SINOPECs purchasing a share in Syncurde its really small potatoes and I don't believe it would warrant a daily PEK. Flights to SYD would be fed through to YVR with AC or down to LAX or SFO, I really cannot see that route taking hold or being profitable.

Currently YYC is well served for its size with KLM to AMS and a couple flights daily to Frankfurt and London with AC /Lufthansa and BA. I think if your looking for growth you have to focus on the WJ & Delta deal to bring more service to YYC, Delta may feed some pax into YYC to connect through on to Canadian destinations but for international growth its not going to be interesting unless Emirates gets into YYC which incidentally they want and the new runway length can support on a hot day.

[Tinosky]

Yes, I do agree it may be a slow and steady growth over the next years. It should be interesting as well to see what happens. Now as mentioned, if Emirates starts service that should open things up! I also hope that WestJet/Delta deal goes through.

Thanks for the comments, Just wanted to see what other people's views were.

Thanks again,

Tinosky.

[circlingfor69]

If EK is allowed into YYC then you can kiss goodbye, ovder time, most of the other direct oversees connections it currently has. Check out what happened in Australia with their smaller cities. When EK comes in others can not compete with their complete lack of a price point limit, and are foced to pull-out. So if YYC values direct service they better pray EK is shut out!!

[wallypilot]

If EK is allowed into YYC then you can kiss goodbye, ovder time, most of the other direct oversees connections it currently has. Check out what happened in Australia with their smaller cities. When EK comes in others can not compete with their complete lack of a price point limit, and are foced to pull-out. So if YYC values direct service they better pray EK is shut out!!

sounds like wal mart!

[tiffgus]

http://www.emirates.com/ca/English/abou ... _help.aspx

you can email transport canada from this page in support of EK making its way to YVR and YYC

[Sage]

Read the thread on PPRuNe and you will see lot of reasons why we shouldn't allow EK to expand in Canada. http://www.pprune.org/canada/408976-emi ... anada.html
Pay attention to the post on the reaction of European airlines and why they are protecting themselves against EK. The one time in the year in which you may travel on EK is not worth the loss of jobs throughout ALL of Canada.

[RB211]

Read the thread on PPRuNe and you will see lot of reasons why we shouldn't allow EK to expand in Canada. http://www.pprune.org/canada/408976-emi ... anada.html
Pay attention to the post on the reaction of European airlines and why they are protecting themselves against EK. The one time in the year in which you may travel on EK is not worth the loss of jobs throughout ALL of Canada.

Of course, if it is on PPrune, it must be wholly accurate! It is, after all, mostly just opinions of other regular folks.

To balance the naysayers for increased EK frequency to Canada, there was a study done by the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation related to the issue. It can be found at:

http://www.centreforaviation.com/news/2 ... -it-right/

[complexintentions]

Yes, a consultancy (aka "word-whores for hire") named "Centre For Asia Pacific Aviation" can be depended on for a balanced view...

With such gems as these, I suppose: "Canute-like, Canada stands firm against the forces of change"

As much as Emirates likes to play Canada as the bad guy, it isn't just Canada who's waking up. EK has just been denied more slots in CDG and SXF. Is it protectionism? Sure. Trying to protect your own countries interests IS one of the major roles of a government, is it not?

Not all change is inevitable, and not all is good. I'm not about to start throwing rocks at police at an anti-globalization rally, but I'd defend Canada's right to do as they please with their own markets, especially if the alternative is adopting the Emirates business model...which depends on the UAE political system to survive and thrive. Basing your business in a despotic dictatorship away from prying regulatory eyes should not be the way forward, shiny widebodies or not.

[RB211]

Yes, a consultancy (aka "word-whores for hire") named "Centre For Asia Pacific Aviation" can be depended on for a balanced view...

With such gems as these, I suppose: "Canute-like, Canada stands firm against the forces of change"

As much as Emirates likes to play Canada as the bad guy, it isn't just Canada who's waking up. EK has just been denied more slots in CDG and SXF. Is it protectionism? Sure. Trying to protect your own countries interests IS one of the major roles of a government, is it not?

Not all change is inevitable, and not all is good. I'm not about to start throwing rocks at police at an anti-globalization rally, but I'd defend Canada's right to do as they please with their own markets, especially if the alternative is adopting the Emirates business model...which depends on the UAE political system to survive and thrive. Basing your business in a despotic dictatorship away from prying regulatory eyes should not be the way forward, shiny widebodies or not.

"word-whores for hire" nice! Are you saying this paper was commisioned by the UAE or EK? I was not aware that it was.

Even if that is the case, what difference does it make? There are two sides to every discussion and in cases like this each side will undoubtedly embellish to support their point of view. Like stating that blocking EK is about protecting Canada's interests. It isn't really, is it? It is about Air Canada's interests.

Since the Canadian government is working to increase trade and business ties with the UAE (as too are the Americans), increased transportation is certainly an integral part of that agenda. Like it or not , it is going to happen.

[wallypilot]

Even if that is the case, what difference does it make? There are two sides to every discussion and in cases like this each side will undoubtedly embellish to support their point of view. Like stating that blocking EK is about protecting Canada's interests. It isn't really, is it? It is about Air Canada's interests.

It's not about protecting canadian companies. It's about protecting decent paying canadian jobs. Yes, the pilots may be well paid at EK, but that's where it ends. EK is competetive because they employ 3rd world immigrant labour at their hub in Dubai. When you have a cost base like that, you will destory decent paying Canadian jobs. Whether you like it or not, EK has more or less slave labour in the lower ranks.

By your logic, we might as well outsource everything, doing away with good jobs here at home. I'm no NDP supporter by any means, but when a company has such a tilted playing field, a gov't needs to be very careful about the priveleges granted to such companies.

[RB211]

...By your logic, we might as well outsource everything, doing away with good jobs here at home. I'm no NDP supporter by any means, but when a company has such a tilted playing field, a gov't needs to be very careful about the priveleges granted to such companies.

But we already do outsource close to everything. We Canadians love to buy those cheap 'made in China' goods from Walmart, Zellers and K-Mart etc. I take it you are from BC? How come it is OK to send all our raw logs overseas to be processed in places with cheap labour? Shouldn't we have maintained our own manufacturing industries? How come most of the clothes you wear are no longer made in Canada?

Your BC government 'outsourced' good jobs (unionized) in the health care industry to the private sector purely because it was cheaper. So we happily accept local outsourcing of 'good jobs' at home if it's perceived it will save us a buck.

By your logic we should insulate ourselves from the rest of the world unless they operate/govern exactly as we do. We don't though because we are happy to drop these 'values' when it suits us. If we don't protect most any other industry, why is aviation different?

At the end of the day I still can't see how, if Emirates were to get what it wanted (28 flights a week from three cities), AC would be devastated. If that is truly what would happen, then maybe we should just be concerned at how weak AC must be.

[whiteguy]

At the end of the day I still can't see how, if Emirates were to get what it wanted (28 flights a week from three cities), AC would be devastated. If that is truly what would happen, then maybe we should just be concerned at how weak AC must be.

EK flooding the market to Canada isn't going hurt just AC. Every airline flying into Canada will suffer. WS is going to suffer as well with the new code share agreements!

[RB211]

EK flooding the market to Canada isn't going hurt just AC. Every airline flying into Canada will suffer. WS is going to suffer as well with the new code share agreements!

28 flights is flooding the market? Really?

I would think WS would have an opportunity to benefit since there will still be a number of pax that will not originate or end their journey in YYZ, YYC or YVR. They will still need the connections that WS provides them now.

The 'other' airlines you refer to are European and Asia carriers I take it? Canada can't be concerning itself about the 'suffering' of non-Canadian based companies? How will they suffer? Surely it can't be because people will choose to fly Emirates to Europe or Asia via Dubai?! It must be because they stand to lose some of their pax that transit their 'hubs' to get to their final destination in India, Africa or the Mid-East. Maybe that would be because it is a better routing to those markets. So, if that is the case, why doesn't AC want to fly that route and connect their pax with a code share partner?

Also, what of the Canadian companies that do business in those regions. Should they not be able to have increased/improved transport links with their partners/interests. The US certainly thinks so. They are also actively improving/increasing their ties with the UAE. There are over 120 US corporations that have offices in the Dubai because it is gives them a centralized base for doing business in these regions.

It still comes down to Emirates being perceived as a threat to AC. It is a successful growing airline (for a multitude of reasons) and since that doesn't fit with the standard airline model of the western world, it must be inherently evil.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, this discussion is moot anyway. The UAE foreign trade minister met with Stephen Harper recently to continue discussions about increasing trade between the two countries. Trade exchange between both countries increased from $706 million in 2007 to $1.536 billion in 2008. If that trend continues, improved transport links will have to follow.

[fish4life]

The problem other thing about EK is whenever they fill their planes up from the hub in Dubia it probably is cheaper to fill a A380 up than i spend filling up a truck due to the ridiculously cheap fuel in the middle east thanks to there oil riches. and that reason is why they can keep buying planes and be successful