|Contrail fading away seems unlikely.
The company's founder wasn't a generic corporate pilot. He was a pilot for one of the major oil companies. When he was with them, he headed up their safety & loss reduction program, which was the 80's precursor to SMS. While the makeup of all of these corporations may have changed in the last 30 years, people forget that this is a relationship-based business in a lot of ways. There are people floating around the south end of YYC and likely in the north end of YYZ who seemingly move every five or six years from one hangar to the next,with an office similar to their previous one. Contrail has a warm relationship with the oil companies. They provide an analysis of the safety culture of a company and say, "Here you are", in a fait accompli. Large oil companies, and large government organizations can afford the time and money to perform a detailed audit of charter companies. The vast majority of smaller companies cannot.
Of the audits most companies at the south end of YYC undergo, Contrail is no more or less arduous than most. All of them are more in-depth than the recently dis-continued TC audits. with less bluster, and more direct penalties. TC might have said to many companies: "Address thee discrepancies in 30 days or face out wrath!" (and many have). Oil companies simply say, address these in your own good time, and let us know when you are ready for us to re-visit your operation, and we will at that time re-consider adding you to our list of approved companies. In the meantime of course, the company is not working for that auditor's clients.
The early framework for Contrail's requirements echoed the requirements for Shell, but were less restrictive than Esso. Simulation was a comparatively recent change. In contrast with earlier Esso requirements, Contrail's are fairly benign. In the early 90's only 4 pilots from any one company for instance were permitted to fly for Esso. An accident or incident scratched the company for a year, and often for the pilot, an accident scratched them forever.
As corporate flight departments fall increasingly under the sphere of influence of the larger generic safety programs, I would look to see pilot requirements ratcheted up, not down. I recently noted an audit for a different client group, where the team of auditors spent a month auditing our training and checkrides, attended the groundschools, Flight training, sim training, & checkrides, and interviewed every pilot who was slated to work for them. Companies who have something to hide live in fear of audits like that.
Since TC has had their hands tied by their own minister, I see companies like Contrail as a genuine positive.