ASPO-USAs 6th Annual Peak Oil Conference

[scm]

It will be challenging to determine the full effect of China's enforced demographic. There aren't really any historical analogues to compare to. Nonetheless, China needs the world to keep buying their products (although internal reducing this need). They will hurt as bad as any, and have a long history of rise and collapse.

They have an incredibly large infantry, and their students study at war colleges around the world. I suspect that they would use force to protect their foreign investments (farmland and oil) as any nation would. This is common in history for all people. The Chinese are far ahead of the Americas though. They've invested heavily in renewable energy and make judicious use of coal (ignoring Hubberts coal peak over the horizon.)

[scm]

double post

[North Shore]

^And they're about 1/2 a generation removed from a bicycle - something most North Americans regard as children's toys..

[iflyforpie]

Never underestimate human ingenuity to deal with situations like this. The future isn't bleak, it's just different from what we would like it to be.

[scm]

Never underestimate human ingenuity to deal with situations like this. The future isn't bleak, it's just different from what we would like it to be.

The reality of oil dependence and depletion does present some hard facts.

We've partied hard for the past 150 years on easy-to-get fossil fuels.
When the party is over, how will the hangover feel?

For now, it's a liquid fuels crisis for ships, airplanes, cars and trucks.
Because unfordable fuel and parked vehicles will be the first obvious problem.

We're living the narrative of history - change is normal, even if we don't want it to be.

[Expat]

Imagine a situation wherein the men in the world were told that there was a thing called Peak Vagina. ...
(done in 7 TJ)

I think there is a place that has seen "peak vagina". China. There's a trend towards aborting female babies. In my opinion this can lead to only one thing...war. Well and maybe the other 3 as well.

This has lead to a shortage of 50 million women... So the russian sweeties still have a chance...

It has also lead to families spending a lot of money, so that their only son could get the best education, in the best universities...
In my opinion, they are the comers, and we...the goers...

[scm]

For those who are interested, here's a 1 HR interview with Hirsch regarding peak oil.
He headed the study in 2005 for the US DoE on Peak Oil.

http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/f ... 1016-3.mp3

Dr. Robert L. Hirsch is is a Senior Energy Advisor at Management Information Services, Inc. (MISI); a consultant in energy, technology, and management; and founder of AlumiGen, a startup company based on his invention for hydrogen production. Previously, he was a senior staff member at SAIC, RAND, and Advanced Power Technologies, Inc.; Vice President of the Electric Power Research Institute; Vice President and Manager for oil and gas upstream research at Atlantic Richfield Co.; Founder and CEO of ARCO Power Technologies, Inc.; Manager of Exxon’s synthetic fuels research laboratory; Manager of Petroleum Exploratory Research at Exxon; Assistant Administrator of the U.S. Energy Research and Development Administration (Presidential Appointment); and director of fusion research at the U.S. AEC and ERDA. He has over 40 years professional experience, 15 patents and over 50 technical publications. His doctorate is in engineering and physics.

[scm]

http://aspo-usa.com/`
VIDEO Schlesinger`s speech. 10 minutes long.

Dr. James Schlesinger
Former Secretary of Defense, Secretary of Energy and CIA Director
Dr. James R. Schlesinger serves as chairman of the board of The MITRE Corporation. He is also a consultant to the Departments of Defense and State, and a member of the Defense Policy Board and the International Security Advisory Board.

Dr. Schlesinger has been awarded thirteen honorary doctorates. He is the recipient of the National Security Medal, the DoD Eugene G. Fubini Award, as well as six other departmental and agency medals. He is the recipient of the Dwight D. Eisenhower Distinguished Service Medal, the George Catlett Marshall Medal, the H. H. Arnold Award, the Navy League's National Meritorious Citation, the Distinguished Service Award of the Military Order of the Carabao, the Jimmy Doolittle Award, the Military Order of the World Wars Distinguished Service Award, the Henry M. Jackson Award for Distinguished Public Service, and the William Oliver Baker Award. In 2009, he received the Air Force Association's Lifetime Achievement Award.

http://vimeo.com/user2308344/videos More conference videos

I found Gregor Macdonalds lecture quite informative. However you cannot see his slides in the video. They should be available at ASPOs website (all speakers slides are avail)

[Expat]

Acording to this scholar, oil depletion will not pose such a challenge: Hermann Scheer is a well known politician and alternate energy proponent.
Here is an article about him, interview with Amy Goodman:


http://www.opednews.com/Diary/How-did-G ... 7-794.html

HERMANN SCHEER: The tragedy of our present civilization is that it became dependent on marginal energy sources. The marginal energy sources are fossil sources, fossil resources and nuclear, based on the raw material uranium. The gigantic energy potential is the renewable energy potential always all coming from the sun, including its derivates, like wind and the photosynthetic-produced--photosynthetically produced materials, organic materials, plants, hydro-base. And the sun offers to our globe, in eight minutes, as much energy as the annual consumption of fossil and atomic energy is. That means to doubt--the doubtings if there would be enough renewable energy for the replacement of nuclear and fossil energies, this argument is ridiculous. There is by far enough.

8 minutes!!!

Next, we will be invading the Sahara to plant our solar panels there...

[North Shore]

^ That's a pretty optimistic POV, and does give some hope. OTOH, solar's a pretty diffuse sort of energy (how much energy will you expend capturing it?) and not particularly portable at this point in time. It also conveniently overlooks the other (and, IMHO) much more valuable uses for oil - lubrication, chemical feedstocks and plastics...

[scm]

Solar and wind are the only long term solutions [presently known] for stable energy. However if the oil decline is as predicted, then the early problem is a liquid shortfall. That's all the military will care about, anyway. However who knowns what "Black Swan" events could occur. Let's hope Iraq and Iran turn on their pumps soon.

I don't want to promote "doom and gloom". What happens after peak is unknown.



I have heard of what Scheer has done for Germanys energy policy. Carter tried to do that too over here.
I am hopeful about the work that the US military is doing towards algae based fuels, even if it only provides
enough to fuel their forces.

Perhaps peak will cause dissolution of the US and an inability to wage war. Maybe Saudi Arabia and Iran will
opt out of despotism and be "friendly".