Fun with guns, an Aussie POV

[scm]

Interesting reading

http://climate.nasa.gov/keyIndicators/

Given the current state of things, i'd say denial is preferable if one wants to stay sane.

It's also good to note when looking at those graphs that future trends don't follow a neat best-fit line.

[Shiny Side Up]

You do realize that it was only the comparative warmth of the medieval warm period that allowed a freedom -loving people to escape religious prosecution in Europe, and settle Greenland;

Actually Eric the Red left Iceland to seek out Greenland which at the time was only suspected to be there because he was being driven off because he murdered a bunch of people. I think he was quoted as saying "They can take my battle-axe when they can pry it from my cold dead hands" He did claim it was in self defence after all, something about stealing thralls and sheep. Greenland was originally to be called Axeland, but a marketing decision figured that Greenland would garner more settlers.

All seriousness aside, for more reading for those interested in the subject, I reccommend reading Collapse by Jared Diamond, a thoroghly depressing book.

[Nark]

This thread is only missing religion and abortion...

[BibleMonkey]

Interesting reading

http://climate.nasa.gov/keyIndicators/

Given the current state of things, i'd say denial is preferable if one wants to stay sane.

Denial-until a hypothesis has achieved experimental proof -is the very basis of science.

"WASHINGTON, DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA, Jun. 1 -/E-Wire/-- "NASA's top administrator, Michael Griffin, speaking on NPR radio made some refreshingly sensible comments about the present global warming scare," said Robert Ferguson, Director of the Science and Public Policy Institute. "Many rationalist scientists agree with him, clearly demonstrating there is no scientific consensus on man-made, catastrophic global warming," said Ferguson.

Griffin said he doubted global warming is "a problem we must wrestle with," and that it is arrogant to believe that today's climate is the best we could have and that "we need to take steps to make sure that it doesn't change."

While NASA scientist, James Hansen, was sharply critical of his boss, other scientists from around the world came to Griffin's support.

Said Dr. Walter Starck, an Australian marine scientist, "Griffin makes an important distinction between the scientific findings of climate change and dramatic predictions of catastrophic consequences accompanied by policy demands. The former can be evaluated by its evidence, but; the latter rest only on assertions and claims to authority. Alternate predictions of benefits from projected changes have been proposed with comparable authority and plausibility. For example, unless one chooses to define the Little Ice Age as "normal" and "optimal" the net effect of any warming has only been beneficial and any anthropogenic contribution very small indeed. Dramatic predictions of imminent disaster have a near perfect record of failure. Griffin's note of caution in the escalating concern over climate change deserves sober consideration..."
http://www.ewire.com/display.cfm/Wire_ID/3967

Now that the other side of the political spectrum has taken control of NASA, the message has changed-in both cases ( under Bush and under Obama ) the science has been and can be validly opposed by other peer reviewed science forwarding evidence that the conclusion posted is not necessarily the final answer. ( e.g your link using GRACE, far more ambiguous gravity data, instead of more actual laser/radar altimeter data-presto-far more ice loss , fits the message of the day, use it )

Sea level rise RATE seems to oscillate over the decades, with a mean of about 2 mm/year, In the climate change context, carbon dioxide often appears early in the abstract or introduction as something like "anthropogenic warming "-instead of using a multivariate analysis of isostatic rebound, tectonic movements, basin shape changes, local specifics...etc.

Sea levels bounce all over the place naturally-at some point during our current interglacial, at the holocene climate optimum, sea level was between 1.5 and 8 meters higher than present (the mean seeming to be in the range of 2.5-2.5). So at least we have one highstand above present.

I have little doubt that those scientists -like Pielke , or Spencer, Principal Research Scientist for the University of Alabama in Huntsville ( satellite temperature measurement system UAH) as well as the U.S. Science Team Leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) on NASA’s Aqua satellite, that state the current Co2 based climate models have no predictive value-are wrong.

No predictive value.

Popularity of an idea has no scientific value. It is psychologically persuasive, although the universe doesn't care what we are persuaded of, it will still carry on oblivious of our opinions.

It's also good to note when looking at those graphs that future trends don't follow a neat best-fit line.

The model you're referencing is off by more than at least 50% ( half of the predicted heat is missing [saying that it is hiding in the ocean is just silly] ) -it has no predictive value.

If the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, and the Pacific decadal oscillation both turn to and maintain a cold phase-we could cool off,( as we have in the past ) as heat is transferred even faster from the equator to escape at the poles .

We don't know what causes those ( as well as remaining mostly blind on clouds , and solar factors , and how much orbital wobble it took to put us into the last several ice ages-snowball earth being the most normal and common state of this planet, paleoclimatologically speaking).

And there are six or eight larger problems on the planet than temperature.


==

This thread is only missing religion and abortion...

I was thinking along those lines myself.....guns and global warming-oh yeah. My favorite topics.

Just to thow everybody off-no matter what scm posts next, I'm going to say
"oh yeah, crap, I was wrong all along-you're right! "

That way you all get to see that happen at least once onna internets argument.....



edit.
oops
I'm of topic.
Ok...something about guns....something about guns....
Guns are good for shooting rabbits. Although I don't really like the taste of rabbit that much.

[scm]

With regards to Jared Diamonds Collapse, his other book Guns, Germs and Steel is great for describing why inequalities exist around the world. Also, there are now documentaries on both his books - both worth watching.

As for climate change BM, if you deny that changes are happening rapidly around the world, and that the resulting habitat will have the same or lower carrying capacity than present, then we will simply have to disagree. Arguing intricacies of specific events don't preclude the reality of observation.

After all, observation is half of science. The human obsessions with models..may be our downfall.

Here's the most recent report i've read on the conditions of oil, coal, arable land, phosphorous, water, climate, gas, uranium and others.

Released 2010 October. 15 MB pdf
One of the best i've read yet - and it's free.

http://www.global.ucsb.edu/climateproje ... gy_CC4.pdf

Oh..and I was thinking of starting a new religion. Abortion will be optional and beer drinking is mandatory before daily service.

As for water not storing heat...

[BibleMonkey]

With regards to Jared Diamonds Collapse, his other book Guns, Gold and Steel is great for describing why inequalities exist around the world. Also, there are now documentaries on both his books - both worth watching.

As for climate change BM, if you deny that changes are happening rapidly around the world, and that the resulting habitat will have the same or lower carrying capacity than present, then we will simply have to disagree. Arguing intricacies of specific events don't preclude the reality of observation.

After all, observation is half of science. The human obsessions with models..may be our downfall.

Here's the most recent report i've read on the conditions of oil, coal, arable land, phosphorous, water, climate, gas, uranium and others.

Released 2010 October. 15 MB pdf
One of the best i've read yet - and it's free.

http://www.global.ucsb.edu/climateproje ... gy_CC4.pdf

Oh..and I was thinking of starting a new religion. Abortion will be optional and beer drinking is mandatory before daily service.

"oh yeah, crap, I was wrong all along-you're right!

==========

There-I said I would do it.

Can you post the title of that 15mb doc, I'll find a smaller html version-Although I have to admit I'm pre-judging it already, I'm thinking of all those 1970's doomsday scenarios that never happened, but they were popular.......(:

====

As for water not storing heat...

It's a large enough model error bar to render it useless-the heat can't hide "in the pipeline" ( underwater , wherever ) and then emerge decades later-that is an abuse of physics.

[scm]

Peak Energy, Climate Change, and the Collapse of Global Civilization: The Current Peak Oil Crisis

With regards to the papers in the 1970s - yes they haven't come true yet [the population crash anyway], and I hope they don't. On a geologic timescale the 1970s was yesterday, and that mean's we're a bit closer to the limits.

Collapses happen over decadal timescales - but who knows if, and when, the American empire will. Many will not even notice it happening.

[BibleMonkey]

Thanks scm-I'll look for that title in a more download-friendly-faster format.

Right now I have to go shovel some snow.

*can't let it go * Did you know that the current human death rate from cold is seven times higher than from heat?