That infamous "Pilot Shortage"

[Beefitarian]

I agree with iflyforpie. As soon as someone can get around paying these high wages for entry level guys there will be a shortage of superlow paid pilots. Tired of working at Burger King? PILOT!!

[scopiton]

the only shortage forecasted in the industry is a shortage of benefits, period.

IATA reports strong 2010 but expresses fears for future
By Alan Dron

IATA has expressed concerns that the steadily-rising price of oil will further dent the airline industry's already "pathetic" profit margins.

"We predicted that 2011 would see a second consecutive year of profitability but with industry profits falling by 40% to $9.1 billion," says IATA director general Giovanni Bisignani.

However, that prediction had been made on the basis of an oil price of $84 a barrel and prices are currently hovering around $100. "For every dollar increase in the average price of a barrel of oil over the year, airlines face the difficult task of recovering an additional $1.6 billion in costs," says Bisignani. Fuel accounts for 27% of airlines' operating costs.

Presenting its full-year 2010 statistics for international air traffic, IATA says that the past year showed the airline business generally bouncing back strongly from 2009's sharp dip. Scheduled passenger traffic was up 8.2% while cargo grew 20.6% as companies around the world re-stocked their inventories.

Passenger and cargo numbers for December 2010 showed they had outstripped 2008's pre-recession heights, with air travel volume up by 4% and cargo by 1% over 2008.

"The world is moving again," says Bisignani. "After the biggest demand decline in the history of aviation in 2009 people started to travel and do business again in 2010. Airlines ended the year slightly ahead of early 2008 volumes, but with a pathetic 2.7% profit margin. The challenge is to turn the demand for mobility into sustainable profits."

Middle East carriers led the way in passenger demand, recording 17.8% growth in 2010 despite a 13.2% rise in capacity as a steady stream of new aircraft was delivered to Gulf-based airlines.

All other regions also recorded year-on-year growth in 2010: Africa with 12.9%, Asia-Pacific 9%, Latin America 8.2% and North America 7.4%.

Europe brought up the rear, with a more modest rise of 5.1%. IATA notes that this was double the region's capacity increase of 2.6%, which helped passenger load factors rise to 79.4%. However, the continuing poor state of many European economies meant that yield improvements were constrained and a further blow came in December with the severe weather that disrupted air travel in several European countries.

Cargo demand was notably erratic throughout 2010, says IATA, with growth varying from 35.2% in May to a low of 5.8% in November. Overall, however, the freight industry is coming back on track to its historical annual growth pattern of 5-6%.

There were large variations in regional cargo patterns. Latin American carriers recorded the highest annual growth, at 29.1%, while Middle East airlines were close behind with 26.7%. Asia-Pacific followed with 24%, Africa with 23.8% and North America, 21.8%. Still-weak European economies were reflected in a 10.8% rise,

[glorifieddriver]

Im down with you for camping out schools, why look for jobs when we can eliminate future competition haha

[Carli v.A.]

it seems that the only thing we can do is get more hours with the "first jobs" and be ready when the actual shortage happens, if it does. Fingers crossed it does relatively soon.

[Gino Under]

We are experiencing the beginning of a serious pilot shortage as we debate this. Regardless of our opinions, the reality is that it IS here. Varied though the regional requirements may be, it is starting. In Canada, we won't notice it as readily as you will elsewhere. So for some, don't hold your breath.

The shortage will be greatest in the more experienced pilot group. The 250-1500 hour group will be in limbo for some time especially as the Americans have upped the requirements for Part 121 F/O qualifications to the ATP level. Can Canada be far behind?

THIS, is going to get interesting.

Gino Under

[no name]

I remember seeing a very similar 'pilot shortage' article in my flight school's pamphlet in the early 90's. I work in IT now. I guess if you trust them & you don't do your research, it will work.

[Bobby868]

I've been a licensed commercial pilot since 1991. I was sold that pilot shortage BS back then. In 20 years I have never seen a shortage.

What I have seen is more and more flight schools producing more and more pilots. And fewer jobs not more.

For instance I know a lot of float and bush operators (entry level positions) have shut down over the last couple of years. Other first jobs or intermediate jobs such as F/O overseas are now no longer available to expats because foreign governments insist, rightfully so, that their pilots get those seats.

Further with the fly past 60 thing it's just one more point to the fact there will never be a shortage.

For all the years I've been up north and flying I don't think I've had one week were some young kid with a fresh cpl hasn't come up to me either in my office or at the bar and told me about the up-coming pilot shortage. I just smile and place their resume on the stack with the 600 other resumes I got this month.

BTW We didn't hire anyone last year, not even a dockhand, we won't be hiring anyone this year and if things don't pick up we will be shut down next year and I'll be out there looking for work.

[KK7]

I think from a worldwide perspective, some areas might experience pilot shortages. Not because there is a shortage of total pilots to total jobs, but because some markets are short qualified people, while others are over-saturated with the qualified people the former needs. I think many folks here are much like me, I prefer continuing to work in Canada rather than going to China or anywhere else in Asia to go live and work. Not saying there is anything wrong with the place, but I like Canada and it's my home. Because of this, I don't think we'll ever see this shortage here, but I'm sure in Asia they'll feel the pinch.

I'm sure the younger guys will jump at the opportunities to *live* and work overseas (I work overseas, but I like having my home in Canada), but it's the older guys who are established or have families that have the experience that is required for the airlines. There certainly are folks who dream of going over to Asia to live, but I think those numbers are far fewer than the ones who want to stay.

I think there's a good chance with 3000+ hours and multi/turbine time can find a job with an airline overseas pretty quickly. Back home in Canada? Not as easy.

[threedotsleft]

I think there's a good chance with 3000+ hours and multi/turbine time can find a job with an airline overseas pretty quickly. Back home in Canada? Not as easy.

I have the time you mentioned above ( >4000TT, lots of MPIC/Turbine) and have applied to every carrier in Asia. No reply.
I'd love to live in south-east Asia and fly for a carrier over there (single, no kids, and no commitments to Canada). Unfortunately, my resume gets me nothing. They all want type ratings and time on type.

[Sky Pilot]

I got my commercial licence in 1986 amid a major pilot shortage, but perhaps my haircut was not acceptable, as it was 1989 before I first flew commercially.

[SunWuKong]

I think many folks here are much like me, I prefer continuing to work in Canada rather than going to China or anywhere else in Asia to go live and work. Not saying there is anything wrong with the place, but I like Canada and it's my home.

No offence but if you are not a B737 (NG most of the time) or A320 experienced captain who can pass the hiring process, they wouldn't want you anyway (China).
And don't move around, don't go see the world, it's against pilot/airplane philosophy.


Gino and your pilot shortage, don't worry about it, the rising fuel barrel price will calm down the industry a bit, like it did not so long time ago.

[hawker driver]

Here are some interesting numbers from the US. I don't know how true they are.


http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/20 ... emand.html


In anticipation of a flightcrew shortage, the Federal Aviation Administration elected in 2007 to raise the retirement age from 60 to 65. However, unless a new generation is trained, the measure will only delay, not avert, the impact. Of the 60,000 pilots in the USA today, around 37,000 - nearly two-thirds - are due to retire between 2012 and 2017, says Greenhill. He expects that when the US economy picks up, the airlines will hire all available graduates, instructors and furloughed pilots, but then fall short. "There is definitely going to be a gap in pilot supply, because there has been nobody in the training pipeline here over the past two-and-a-half years."

[GoinNowhereFast]

I'll believe it when I see it.

[GottaFly]

"There is definitely going to be a gap in pilot supply, because there has been nobody in the training pipeline here over the past two-and-a-half years."

When I started as an instructor 4 years ago, our mid sized flight training unit had a fairly significant commercial pilot enrollment compared to today. We had on average 10-15 students registered in the program in 2006-2007. Today we have 20-30, however 90 % of these students are here from Asia where in 2006-2007 5-10% of them were from Asia. According to the Transport Canada Civil Aviation Branch, the number of commercial pilot licences issued on a yearly basis hasn't changed much in the last 10 years, however over the last 3-4, the demographic has. So even though most Canadian schools are relatively busy, the output of commercial pilots that remain in Canada is extremely low.

The bottom line is there IS a shortage of new pilots climbing the latter. Even though there is a rather large backlog of pilots due to the economic recession, the surplus of pilots won't last long. Especially at the rate that the major 3 are hiring (Jazz, ACA, WJA).

[Big Pistons Forever]

I think there's a good chance with 3000+ hours and multi/turbine time can find a job with an airline overseas pretty quickly. Back home in Canada? Not as easy.

I have the time you mentioned above ( >4000TT, lots of MPIC/Turbine) and have applied to every carrier in Asia. No reply.
I'd love to live in south-east Asia and fly for a carrier over there (single, no kids, and no commitments to Canada). Unfortunately, my resume gets me nothing. They all want type ratings and time on type.

There is absolutely a shortage of under age 55 777 type rated Captains with a LPC in the last 3 months and willing to work in China or India for 8500$ a month

[Hedley]

I'm starting to feel sorry for the airlines already.

[SunWuKong]

Hawker driver, look carefully the flight global article you gave us: it is advertisement for Horizon swiss flight academy, the flight school, they even put their own training airplanes pic in addition to repeat how great a flight school they are.

It has been like that for decades, the looming pilot shortage predicted by flight schools, or by Boeing/Airbus afraid their business would slow down IF there were not enough pilot. Same story and advertisement again and again, we will never learn we are always fooled. The issue in this industry is not a pilot shortage, there will always be enough individuals on earth to accept free training and good salaries (if it has to come to that ), but the issue could really be fuel shortage at some point, get informed.

There is absolutely a shortage of under age 55 777 type rated Captains with a LPC in the last 3 months and willing to work in China or India for 8500$ a month

Junyao the low cost compagny pays US$14000 a month after taxes their A320 expat captain. A low cost company flying B737NG will be most of the time around US$13000 everything included a month after taxes.

An experienced expat captain with time on type can expect US$ 200 000 a year (allowance, bonuses, salary...) after taxes flying wide body cargo with Air China.
I really have no idea where you saw a company in China paying US$8500 their B777 Captain, but would like you name it just for the fun. I found the salaries in china most of the time higher than in north america.

[Big Pistons Forever]

Hawker driver, look carefully the flight global article you gave us: it is advertisement for Horizon swiss flight academy, the flight school, they even put their own training airplanes pic in addition to repeat how great a flight school they are.

It has been like that for decades, the looming pilot shortage predicted by flight schools, or by Boeing/Airbus afraid their business would slow down IF there were not enough pilot. Same story and advertisement again and again, we will never learn we are always fooled. The issue in this industry is not a pilot shortage, there will always be enough individuals on earth to accept free training and good salaries (if it has to come to that ), but the issue could really be fuel shortage at some point, get informed.

There is absolutely a shortage of under age 55 777 type rated Captains with a LPC in the last 3 months and willing to work in China or India for 8500$ a month

Junyao the low cost compagny pays US$14000 a month after taxes their A320 expat captain. A low cost company flying B737NG will be most of the time around US$13000 everything included a month after taxes.

An experienced expat captain with time on type can expect US$ 200 000 a year (allowance, bonuses, salary...) after taxes flying wide body cargo with Air China.
I really have no idea where you saw a company in China paying US$8500 their B777 Captain, but would like you name it just for the fun. I found the salaries in china most of the time higher than in north america.

From the PPrune "terms and conditions forum"


"Just saw this advertised with an advertiser on Pprune for 777 Captains (among others) based in Asia.

Is this for real? Line Captains salary is surely wrong!?

Monthly payment
Type Rating Examiners = 10,300 US $ per month
Type Rating Instructors = 10,000 US $ per month
Check Captains = 9,000 US $ per month
Line Captains = 8,500 US $ per month
In addition there is a bonus scheme available after the completion of each years service they are payable in accordance with the Airline's policy and are as follows:
Completion of 1st year of contract: 12,000 US $.
Completion of 2nd year of contract: 13,000 US $.
Upon completion of third year of assignment: 15,000 US $."

The Bangladesh flag carrier is also advertising for MD80 Captains at $7000 USD/month .....

Like I said those operators are for sure experiencing a "pilot shortage"

[SunWuKong]

You don't name the company not the country, give us at least the PPrune link. In China US$8500, it would be for a regional jet or turboprop.
Have a look at the AVcanada job offers to have an idea (B737NG US$17000 a year):

viewtopic.php?f=7&t=71544

Date:17 February 2011
Position:B737NG Line Captain – open to Efis Candidates – China
Company Name:AeroPersonnel Global
Contact Person:Jean Françcois Laplante
Street Address:5858 ch de la Cote-des-Neiges suite 312
City:Montréal
Province:Quebec
Country:Canada
Web address: http://www.aeropersonnel.com
Email address: b737pic.mna@aeropersonnel.com
Send Resume By: Email
Aircraft Types:Boeing B737NG

Job Description:
B737NG Line Capain - Xiamen Airlines - China


B737NG Captain Positions

Our Client, Xiamen Airlines operating in China, requires for immediate employment fifty or more B737NG Line Captains.

These positions are also open to B737-3/4/500 candidates.

Requirements

Candidates must:

- hold a recognized airline pilot license with a captain type rating on the B737 NG or EFIS (3/4/500) family;
- have at least 5,000 hours total time;
- have at least 2,000 hours total PIC and FO time on multi-crew, multi-engine jets;
- have at least 500 hours as PIC on the aircraft;
- hold a Class 1 medical and with a least three months of validity as of the joining date;
- have flown the aircraft within the last 3 years;
- be less than age 55 as of the joining date;
- have no history of incidents or accidents;
- have an ICAO English level 4 or above qualification on the pilot license.

Candidates who meet the above requirements but do not hold a current proficiency check are acceptable on a case-by-case basis.

Candidates who hold a B737-3/4/500 rating and who meet the above requirements (with the exception of the PIC time on the B737NG and who have a minimum of 500 hours PIC on the B737-3/4/500) are also acceptable on a case-by-case basis.

Airline will provide candidates who meet the above requirements with recurrent or conversion training.

The remuneration package

Our client offers a very competitive benefit package, including yearly base salary, bonus and allowances, of 165,900 US $ net of tax for commuting pilots and of 176,700 US $ net of tax for non-commuting pilots.

This includes:

- for commuting captain, a monthly salary of 11,000 US $ net of Chinese taxes for 150 block hours per two calendar months;
- for commuting captain, overtime pay at 200 US $ net of Chinese taxes for block hours above 150 hours per two months;
- for non-commuting captain, a monthly salary of 11,900 US $ net of Chinese taxes for 75 block hours per month;
- for non-commuting captain, overtime pay at 200 US $ net of Chinese taxes for block hours above 75 hours per month;
- a loyalty bonus of 12,000 US $ net of Chinese taxes every twelve months of service;
- a company performance bonus 10,000 US $ net of Chinese taxes, depending on company performance;
- a travel allowance of 3,000 US $ net of Chinese taxes per year;
- for commuting captain, a six weeks on/two weeks off (paid) schedule;
- for non-commuting captain, thirty days of paid vacation per twelve months of service;
- seven day paid sick leave per year;
- five day paid compassionate leave per year;
- medical insurance coverage;
- a lodging allowance of 5,000 Yuan per month net of Chinese taxes;
- free local ground transportation between designated pick up points and Airline main operation base;
- worldwide ID travel privileges on Xiamen Airlines as well as on China Southern Airlines as per Airline rules.

Training salary of 6,000 USD net of Chinese taxes is paid until candidates has successfully passed the CAAC ATPL flight test or for a maximum of six weeks whichever comes first.

A three year renewable contract is offered.

Crew Member Assistance

AeroPersonnel provides Crew Member assistance in China. This assistance is available 24/7 in English and Chinese. It starts during the screening process and the induction process. It continues during your full period of service in China. AeroPersonnel’s partner in China, Fasco HR Int’l, provides this assistance. It is available throughout China.

Fasco will be waiting for you at the airport on the date of your arrival in China. It will personally escort you every day of the screening process. It will be there again when you report for work and will assist with your induction with Xiamen Airlines. It will also be there during the full duration of your period of service with the Airline.

Fasco HR International is based in Shanghai. It is an aviation personnel support specialist employing more than 2,000 people and has been operating in China for more than 22 years.

To apply

To apply candidates should e-mail their resume or an updated resume as a MS Word (.doc) or Rich Text Format (.rtf) attachments at b737pic.mna@aeropersonnel.com.

Make sure your resume indicates your total hours, your total hours (PIC and FO) on multi-crew/multi-engine jets, your total PIC hours on the B737NG or EFIS (3/4/500), the date of last flight on the B737NG or EFIS (3/4/500) and the date of last PC on the B737 NG or EFIS (3/4/500).

Please indicate reference B737PIC/MNA.

Only candidates meeting the above requirements will be contacted.

Last updated on February 16, 2011



Salary:$up to 176,000 usd per year !
Closing Date:17 July 2011

[Big Pistons Forever]

Sun

Sorry I am not sure how to paste the link. the thread is in the PPrune terms and conditions forum on 6 Feb and is titled "B777 Captains conditions...is this for real"

In any case I do not think they are going to get many takers, hence my comment that these operators are indeed facing a pilot shortage and will likely continue to do so as long as they offer such crap pay. This however is likely to be the only kind of situation where there is actually not enough pilots to meet the airlines requirements.

[SunWuKong]

Ok, will have a look.

[SunWuKong]

http://www.pprune.org/terms-endearment/ ... -real.html Yeah yeah, I know you cannot past a link....
Sure that's pretty low, you are perfectly right when you said no shortage when we see this kind of offer. But to come back to the subject of your post about china: your pprune post mentions nothing, not the company, nor the country, it's just a thread (with no link!) of somebody who copy/past the worst condition he has ever seen apparently, it sure doesn't reflect the reality in general, and surely not what's happening in China.

And in your initial post you affirmed B777 captains were paid US$8500 in China, but didn't and still don't bring us any proof.

Very honnestly not many expat pilot here on Avcanada would beleive the average monthly income for a wide body captain in China is US$8500 (in fact it wouldn't be even enough for a regional captain on Embraer190:http://www.avianation.com/aviation_jobs ... 9225509088), and finding an horror story or a pprune post with no link won't change anything to that.

I repeat salaries in China are most of the time higher than in north america, especially concerning low cost and regionnal companies. I could give you plenty of job offers in china with excellent salaries that would confirm it, if you honnestly wanted it (which I doubt), meanwhile I could give you many example of low salaries in north america.

[Big Pistons Forever]

Sun

The thread is about the mythical pilot shortage and my post was meant to point out that I thought the only
" pilot shortage" that existed was for airlines looking for experienced long haul wide body Captains, but only offering ridiculously low pay. If I have somehow offended you by inferring that Chinese Airlines were not offering competitive pay then I am sorry, although I am not sure how you drew that inference since my original post only specified the job was in "Asia"

BTW a 2 minute Google search of "pilot recruitment" I found several job posting in all parts of the world with equal or worse terms than the ones I quote, including this one

Job Title: B757/767 Line Captains
Role: Flight Crew
Sector: Scheduled Airline
Location: Africa
Basic salary range: Competitive
Job Type: Permanent full-time
Job description:
The Position
Our Client, an African State carrier, plans to recruit additional Direct-Hire crews across their fleet, including B757/767 Line Captains. They operate worldwide, covering almost all the continents and the positions are based in a nice African country.

Outline Terms, Subject to Contract
The Airline is offering long-term direct employment
Start date: ASAP
Basic monthly salary: US$7,000 plus overtime above 80 block hours per month (up to 110/mth)
Per diems/Overnight allowances: US$60
Accommodation allowance provided
Paid leave of 30 days, with tickets provided for self, spouse and children
Uniforms provided
Ground duty transport provided
Work Rotations: 6 Weeks ON 12 Days OFF
Monthly flying hours: 80 hours

Who will our Client hire?
The airline is hiring every month during 2011 and they prefer Candidates to apply who can report to start work quickly.
JAA or FAA ATPL
Current First Class Medical Certificate
Current on the B757/767 within the last 3 months
Applicants should ideally have around: 5,000 hours Total Time, 500 flight hours on the B757/767 and 2,500 hours Jet experience
Maximum age, as advised by the Airline: 60

10 years ago you simply would not see something this bad. The fact that they are advertising at all seems to me they think there is somebody(s) desperate enough to
to accept regional airline T prop Captain wages to fly in command of a long haul widebody jet ........

[SunWuKong]

Big Pistons For Ever:

If I have somehow offended you by inferring that Chinese Airlines were not offering competitive pay then I am sorry, although I am not sure how you drew that inference since my original post only specified the job was in "Asia"

I just noticed something wrong and told you, why it seems such a big deal? And Negative again, you didn't say Asia, but China and India.

That's what you wrote first:

There is absolutely a shortage of under age 55 777 type rated Captains with a LPC in the last 3 months and willing to work in China or India for 8500$ a month

And I only answered you: negative concerning China, why is that such a problem? I am an expat in China, you read PPrune and surf on internet to get false information about who knows what and where and explain us what's going on in china. I thought in the west we were able to say "yes I am wrong on that one", or "yes what I wrote is not true", this kind of thing instead of coming back after some google research with an add from africa, I didn't know keeping face was such a big deal, as it is in China.

What you said about China remains wrong, that's all not a big deal. Anybody can say something wrong. But on Avcanada it doesn't exist to stand corrected apparently.

Concerning the pretended pilot shortage, and low salaries in africa, north america, and surely some third world country, I agree 100% with you.

[SunWuKong]

No looming pilot shortage, but looming fuel shortage

Wikipedia for what it's worth, read entirely that's really interesting (scarying?):

Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline.[1] This concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, and the combined production rate of a field of related oil wells. The aggregate production rate from an oil field over time usually grows exponentially until the rate peaks and then declines—sometimes rapidly—until the field is depleted. This concept is derived from the Hubbert curve, and has been shown to be applicable to the sum of a nation’s domestic production rate, and is similarly applied to the global rate of petroleum production. Peak oil is often confused with oil depletion; peak oil is the point of maximum production while depletion refers to a period of falling reserves and supply.

M. King Hubbert created and first used the models behind peak oil in 1956 to accurately predict that United States oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970.[2] His logistic model, now called Hubbert peak theory, and its variants have described with reasonable accuracy the peak and decline of production from oil wells, fields, regions, and countries,[3] and has also proved useful in other limited-resource production-domains. According to the Hubbert model, the production rate of a limited resource will follow a roughly symmetrical logistic distribution curve (sometimes incorrectly compared to a bell-shaped curve) based on the limits of exploitability and market pressures.

Some observers, such as petroleum industry experts Kenneth S. Deffeyes and Matthew Simmons, believe the high dependence of most modern industrial transport, agricultural, and industrial systems on the relative low cost and high availability of oil will cause the post-peak production decline and possible severe increases in the price of oil to have negative implications for the global economy. Predictions vary greatly as to what exactly these negative effects would be. If political and economic changes only occur in reaction to high prices and shortages rather than in reaction to the threat of a peak, then the degree of economic damage to importing countries will largely depend on how rapidly oil imports decline post-peak.

Optimistic estimations of peak production forecast the global decline will begin by 2020 or later, and assume major investments in alternatives will occur before a crisis, without requiring major changes in the lifestyle of heavily oil-consuming nations. These models show the price of oil at first escalating and then retreating as other types of fuel and energy sources are used.[4] Pessimistic predictions of future oil production operate on the thesis that either the peak has already occurred,[5][6][7][8] that oil production is on the cusp of the peak, or that it will occur shortly.[9][10] The International Energy Agency (IEA) says production of conventional crude oil peaked in 2006.[11][12] As proactive mitigation may no longer be an option, a global depression is predicted, perhaps even initiating a chain reaction of the various feedback mechanisms in the global market that might stimulate a collapse of global industrial civilization, potentially leading to large population declines within a short period. Throughout the first two quarters of 2008, there were signs that a global recession was being made worse by a series of record oil prices.[13]