Becoming a pilot

[SunWuKong]

and I won't forfeit that because of a prediction of fuel shortages

That's right! You are free.
Those are only advices, not official rules to prevent you from flying professionaly! You want to become a pilot? Do what you want! Hell, I did it myself and I am flying an airliner, sure I understand your motivation.
I am not speaking about motivation, free will, destiny here. I try to inform in some aspects, the ones a flight school won't tell you.
After that, if you don't want to become a doctor and fly glider the week-end, then at least you know you are motivated and are ready to take the risk of a difficult career, with maybe a not so bright future. After all that the choice I made aswell... And I love what I do.


Having said that, please keep in mind those 2 points:
1-Making a choice doesn't mean we have to make evrybody else beleive it was he best one in order to constantly reassure ourselves, it doesn't mean we have to be blind, it doesn't mean we cannot mention ennoying subjects. Otherwise why having internet forum, or even questions?

2-Don't get all excited because we have a few job ads right now, because we all know how it ends... It has never been sustainable, and lay off are always following. Add to that the current fuel speculation and politic unstability... By the time you finish your training and look for a job don't expect too much concerning the state of our industry at that time.


Finally, about fuel shortage, I see you are optimistic. I am going to tell you something: if at the end of the day I am wrong (to be more accurate: if everything I read on the subject is wrong) and you are right on this subject (which is, after all, possible...), I will be extremely happy, because this is my current job, and you hypothetical future one we are talking about.

[RenegadeAV8R]

My judgement is a bit biased since I have a degree in Information Technology...

... they'll find a new fuel ...

[DaveC]

My judgement is a bit biased since I have a degree in Information Technology...

... they'll find a new fuel ...

C'mon now you can't honestly say you think aviation will die in the next 30-40 years do you? It is the most widely used mass-transportation method in the world. I don't see them building high speed rail across the Atlantic, do you?

If they dont find a means of energy or fuel to keep up with what we have, and we do run out of oil, we've got wayyyyy bigger problems to worry about.

[RenegadeAV8R]

If they dont find a means of energy or fuel to keep up with what we have, and we do run out of oil, we've got wayyyyy bigger problems to worry about.

I really hope that aviation never die.

Everything in our civilization is based on oil. We are not about to "run out" of oil. But it is now widely known that we are reaching Peak Oil. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

The upcoming energy crisis will not only affect aviation; but everything else as well. We can only cross our fingers hoping that the crisis happens in a far away future.


As far as "new fuel" is concerned. There will be none. All the "alternative fuel" are based on oil; they are manufactured with oil.

Keep in mind that oil is simply extracted from the ground; oil is basically free, the oil cost is to extract it. Our entire economy is based on cheap, abundant and accessible oil. Medicine, electronics, telecommunication, finance, food, name it.


Today, if somebody wants to become a pilot; he should do everything possible to become a pilot. This is what our life is all about; doing everything we can to make our dreams come true.

If this future pilot is preoccupied by the upcoming energy crisis, in addition to flying, he should learn/develop basic skills like carpentry or how to repair and fix things, because those type of skills could be highly sought after when the crisis occurs.

[SunWuKong]

C'mon now you can't honestly say you think aviation will die in the next 30-40 years do you?

Half the humanity died: Neanderthal desappeared. An human being who were as or maybe more intelligent than us, and you really beleive a not so important thing like today's aviation cannot desappear? You think that after the peak oil your job will be guaranteed?

That's not because the world as always been like it is today for you that it has always been and will always be.

And what are you talking about, 30 or 40 years? All official studies are saying within 10-20 years.
Reality is that it already started in 2008 with speculation, and it's already coming back today. The fuel price today ($110) is high enough to kill all the airline's profit.

It is the most widely used mass-transportation method in the world.

That's precisely the problem, why you make it the solution?

I don't see them building high speed rail across the Atlantic, do you?

I am sad to tell you the reality of life cannot change for this kind of true affirmation.

[DaveC]

Half the humanity died: Neanderthal desappeared. An human being who were as or maybe more intelligent than us, and you really beleive a not so important thing like today's aviation cannot desappear? You think that after the peak oil your job will be guaranteed?

I don't think the impending end of oil reserves will end aviation. There are much larger probabilities that would end Aviation and a lot of other thing. If you honestly think after our oil is done you think the age of energy/technology is over, you are sadly mistaken. The world will continue to run, just differently. Electricity will power just about everything I think.

Neanderthal cranial capacity is thought to have been as large as that of Homo sapiens, perhaps larger, indicating their brain size may have been comparable, as well. In 2008, a group of scientists created a study using three-dimensional computer-assisted reconstructions of Neanderthal infants based on fossils found in Russia and Syria, showing that they had brains as large as modern humans' at birth and larger than modern humans' as adults.

You might want to do some reading as to what studies suggest happened to Neanderthals. It would be foolish to assume life that was around 350,000 to 600,000 years ago would be more intelligent than we are now. I don't think you understand how little we know about our own Earth, despite the huge advances we've made in the last 200 years. Evolution is one thing, aviation is something else.

And what are you talking about, 30 or 40 years? All official studies are saying within 10-20 years.

Academics also understand that studies are often wrong. There is no doubt oil reserves are not infinite, but the amount of oil under the ocean and in the Arctic along would last alot longer than the 10-20 years you suggest. Go read up on the Peak Oil link that was posted a couple posts before mine.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

Reality is that it already started in 2008 with speculation, and it's already coming back today. The fuel price today ($110) is high enough to kill all the airline's profit.

The reason why the barrel of oil is $110 is not because we are worried about it running out. It's for a couple of reasons. One being because OPEC and the other oil groups only produce enough to meet the needs of demand. If they produced what they could (Saudi Arabia has extended the offer to produce more oil to make up for the shortage Libya has produced), prices would sink back to normal. The other reason, is the cost to harvest and refine the oil is increasing (northern projects, oil sands etc).

It is the most widely used mass-transportation method in the world.

That's precisely the problem, why you make it the solution?

I don't quite understand your English here - it is the solution because it is the most efficient and cost effective way to move people and things right now. They wouldn't use it if it wasn't.

With your logic, people shouldn't bother going many things (education, etc). Start stocking up for the end of the world in 10-20 years when we run out of oil because humankind is apparently too stupid to understand that fossil fuels will end.

I think I will stop flying and save my money, so I can laugh at everyone who can't get around anymore because there is no more fuel for their cars... /s

[SunWuKong]

If you honestly think after our oil is done you think the age of energy/technology is over, you are sadly mistaken. The world will continue to run, just differently.

That's precisely this "differently" that could hurt your future pilot job. Lay off happened for far less than energy shortage/change in our world. Nobody said the age of energy/technology is over. I think you have a very particular way to read somebody else's post.

You might want to do some reading as to what studies suggest happened to Neanderthals. It would be foolish to assume life that was around 350,000 to 600,000 years ago would be more intelligent than we are now.

Yes it would be foolish, because the completely developped Neandertal didn't exist at the date you mention. Neanderthal lived between 130 000 and 30 000 years ago (or even 24000), try to go futher than the first lines of wikipedia. At that time scientist are saying he was more intelligent than us: Homo sapiens. And really, I might want to do some reading? I already told you he desappeared (scientist are still not sure why), if I didn't bring it up, you would have never checked in wikipedia, be honest.

There is no doubt oil reserves are not infinite, but the amount of oil under the ocean and in the Arctic along would last alot longer than the 10-20 years you suggest.

Aviation industry don't care about reserves (those are secret anyway, OPEC has always falsified the numbers), but aviation industry is sensitive to price. You can have all the fuel you want in Arctic, the Moon or Mars, it doesn't change the fact that a small increase of fuel price has an influence on the aviation industry (and on the economy...), so on our jobs.

The reason why the barrel of oil is $110 is not because we are worried about it running out. It's for a couple of reasons. One being because OPEC and the other oil groups only produce enough to meet the needs of demand. If they produced what they could (Saudi Arabia has extended the offer to produce more oil to make up for the shortage Libya has produced), prices would sink back to normal. The other reason, is the cost to harvest and refine the oil is increasing (northern projects, oil sands etc).

That's not because you understand why the price are increasing, that there is no issue. I don't quite follow you here.

With your logic, people shouldn't bother going many things (education, etc). Start stocking up for the end of the world in 10-20 years when we run out of oil because humankind is apparently too stupid to understand that fossil fuels will end.

You are the only one speaking about the end of the world. We are only mentioning our profession, pilot, will encounter turbulences when energy issue will arise. And this is the kind of information I would want to know, if I were a wannabe.

I think I will stop flying and save my money, so I can laugh at everyone who can't get around anymore because there is no more fuel for their cars... /s

And me I will continue to fly in order to save more money.

I don't quite understand your English here - it is the solution because it is the most efficient and cost effective way to move people and things right now. They wouldn't use it if it wasn't.

Sorry for my english.
I will try to be clearer: The fact aviation it is the only non-expensive mean to bring tourist to the beach and cross the atlantic it precisely why we have some airline pilot job nowadays, and precisely why we should get ready for a change with fuel speculation that precedes any peak.


Keep something in mind: what you and me want is the same: plenty of pilot job, good salaries, for ever or at least until we retire.... I say that because I feel in your post more what you want/hope than what we can objectively observe.

[SunWuKong]

In 2020, the peak oil is reached and the World oil supply declines by around 5%
annually onwards. The peak oil comes as a shock and the prices overshoot to close
to $500/barrel in nominal prices, over $270/barrel in real prices ($2008). World
economies slow down, energy-intensive and small-open economies are affected the
most. Although oil producing economies initially benefit from higher prices, they soon
join in the slow-down as high prices take their toll on global growth. The growth in air
traffic drops to -2.5% annually, which translates to around 12% decrease in traffic
between 2020 and 2025.

Even some organization like Eurocontrol (ATC) slowly start to mention (see the quote above) a peak oil scenario...

http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/gall ... t-Vol1.pdf

[Hedley]

SWK: Are you old enough to remember the "Limits to Growth" book that was released by the so-called "Club of Rome" almost 40 years ago?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth

Same old, same old.

Yale economist Henry C. Wallich labeled the book "a piece of irresponsible nonsense" in a Newsweek editorial dated March 13, 1972. Wallich's main complaints are that the book was published as a publicity stunt with great fanfare at the Smithsonian in Washington, and that there was insufficient evidence for many of the variables used in the model. According to Wallich, "the quantitative content of the model comes from the authors' imagination, although they never reveal the equations that they used."

[SunWuKong]

I was not born, and I am not well informed about the first oil crisis.
Was it because an OAPEC oil embargo, then the Iran revolution? Which created a shortage of oil supply, immediately followed by recession and lay off?

[SunWuKong]

Thank you for the Wikipedia link, I ve just checked. I don't know this book, but now thanks to you I know the wikipedia article about it.
Don't imagine I will defend a book I don't know, however I will bring to your attention the fact we can quote what we want from the article.
You decided to go to the last chapter "Criticism" (most of the wikipedia articles have one) to quote a few lines, but you could have decided to quote something except from the "Criticism" chapter, like this one:

In 2008 Graham Turner at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in Australia published a paper called "A Comparison of `The Limits to Growth` with Thirty Years of Reality".[6][7] It examined the past thirty years of reality with the predictions made in 1972 and found that changes in industrial production, food production and pollution are all in line with the book's predictions of economic and societal collapse in the 21st century.[8]

Again, I don't know this book written in the 70s, and to be honest whatever this book is right or wrong. We are in 2011 and much more accurate technology is available today to understand how much fuel we have.

[Shiny Side Up]

Its a good thing there's the internet otherwise it would be a pretty cold day to be out on the corner with your "The End is Near" sign.

[SunWuKong]

, maybe that's the good side of it.

But maybe the world is perfect and the future stable, and we won't have to adapt to anything, and will lose no job.
Maybe pilot is a career with a bright future.

Perhaps we shouldn't even talk about it anyway...

[Hedley]

I don't know this book

You're kidding, right? Gosh, I feel old sometimes.

[Beefitarian]

I don't know this book

You're kidding, right? Gosh, I feel old sometimes.

I thought you were a new kid. I didn't see you here last week.