Demand for pilots is "set to soar"

[Hawkerflyer]

BBC News
16 September 2010 Last updated at 12:12 ET

Demand for pilots is 'set to soar' as plane travel grows

The number of pilots is set to treble in two decades, Boeing predicted The global aviation industry will need to train and employ almost half a million new pilots over the next 20 years, according to the US aircraft manufacturer Boeing.

In addition, more than half a million new maintenance staff must be found, the aerospace giant said.Currently, some 233,000 pilots and 100,000 mechanics and engineers work for airlines worldwide, it said.About 40% of the extra demand would come from Asia, Boeing said.

Limited training capacity

Some 466,650 newly trained pilots and 596,500 newly trained maintenance staff will be needed between 2010 and 2029, Boeing predicted.With demand set to rise particularly fast in Asia, especially in China, some 180,600 of the pilots and 220,000 of the mechanics would be needed there.Adapting training regimes is a major challenge for the industry, said Roei Ganzarski, chief customer officer at Boeing Training and Flight Services.

"The infrastructure right now in the Asia Pacific is not necessarily on a scale that can address this entire requirement," he added.

Recovery in the air

Passenger numbers have rebounded well since a downturn in demand for air travel that accompanied the financial crisis and recession in several countries. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) said passenger traffic rose 9.2% in July compared with a year earlier. The strongest performance was in the Asia Pacific region, where growth rose by 10.9% year on year.

However, in Europe and North America, fragile consumer confidence could result in a slower pace of recovery, IATA's director general Giovanni Bisignani warned.

'A lot of new engineers'

In China, demand for pilots in could be twice or three times as great as the number going through current and planned training facilities, according to Mr Bisignani.

This might result in Chinese airlines recruiting pilots abroad, he predicted.

Boeing's forecasts are consistent with industry predictions of a doubling in air passengers by 2030, according to John Ostrower, a blog editor for the Flight Global website.By then, the skills airlines will require its staff to have could be drastically different, he said. "You're going to need a heck of a lot of new engineers, at a time when a large proportion of engineers, certainly in the US, are retiring," he said.

"The focus for these skills will move to places like Brazil, home of [the aircraft manufacturer] Embraer, where the engineering workforce is significantly younger".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11328092

[teacher]

What ever

What the article should read is "Pilot Salaries Continue to Fall, pay doesn't keep up with the times".

[Barkaie]

tell that to the 960 resumes at Air Georgian

[Crusty]

In China, demand for pilots in could be twice or three times as great as the number going through current and planned training facilities, according to Mr Bisignani.

I'm tired of hearing about growth in China somehow benefitting us. Over a billion people live there. I'm sure they'll figure something out.

[niss]

Set to soar! I like how they used those piloty talking words there.

[Dagwood]

Some 466,650 newly trained pilots ... will be needed between 2010 and 2029

That's 23332 new pilots annually. To help alleviate this looming problem, I think I will start a flight school

[traveller123]

Asia, they have a lack of pilots... I heard that normally they don't hire foreigners, so if you're going there in person with your licences, do you think there's any chance to be hired?

[swordfish]

How many times have I heard this tired jive over the past 39 years?

Well, I guess you could calculate it: it used to be an 11-year cycle high-high; currently it's about a 5-year cycle, what with "recession", 9/11, earthquakes, Icelandic volcanoes, and the Chinese predictions all upsetting the pre-programmed cycle.

As for China: errrr, hello...? They have nowhere near the training substructure required to produce engineers, aircrew, and Operations personnel required to support serious airline expansion. Virtually every ad on the consultancies currently is for heavy jet contract crew for Asian carriers, each with 4 years' heavy jet command, 10,000 hours TOT in command, age less than 45 years old, blah blah blah. Where do they think this pool is being refilled from? >> If indeed it IS being refilled.

Somewhere down the line they are going to have to get serious with training infrastructure, and relax these idiotic age barriers they have created. Their contractor payroll must be a nightmare, and they will need to train local people to reduce their crewing costs, and start planning for the long-term.

And as teacher remarked - the supply/demand equation constantly keeps crew salaries well below what they should be. The solution to this problem is multi-faceted, complex, and insoluble at present. The way LCCs compete in the market forces RPMs down, leaving little margin for serious raises industry-wide.

Yeah...pilot demand may increase, (somewhat) as it predictably does when the forward-looking bean-counters make their imperious, pontifical pronouncements, but to be quite sure, it will be a good thing for crew industry wide, if the demand severely outstrips the supply.

[swordfish]

Just dusted off the old calculator: according to Boeing's predictions, the average recruitment rate will need to be over 2,000 new pilots per MONTH, every month, for 20 years.

Hello....? We're going to need to divert half the College graduates into aviation. A more practical solution will be to treble the production of A380's.

that's a tongue-in-cheek comment, for the lamers btw...

[Changes in Latitudes]

This just in: PILOT TREATMENT, PAY AND RESPECT will continue to plummet.

You may get your precious jobs, but at what cost? Oh wait, as long as you're "flying" many of you do not care.

[niss]

You may get your precious jobs, but at what cost? Oh wait, as long as you're "flying" many of you do not care.

No I do not....



I don't have time for this multi-IFR bullshit, just point me to the plane and we'll light this turkey.

[Johnny#5]

[Brewguy]

This just in: PILOT TREATMENT, PAY AND RESPECT will continue to plummet.

You may get your precious jobs, but at what cost? Oh wait, as long as you're "flying" many of you do not care.

Hail To The Bus Driver,
Bus Driver,
Bus Driver
Hail To The Bus Driver,
Bus Driver, Man

He Drinks, And He Cusses
And Stinks Up The Busses

Hail To The Bus Driver,
Bus Driver,
Bus Driver
Hail To The Bus Driver,
Bus Driver, Man

[Changes in Latitudes]

This just in: PILOT TREATMENT, PAY AND RESPECT will continue to plummet.

You may get your precious jobs, but at what cost? Oh wait, as long as you're "flying" many of you do not care.

Hail To The Bus Driver,
Bus Driver,
Bus Driver
Hail To The Bus Driver,
Bus Driver, Man

For you...

[Brewguy]

Thank you, that was great!

[Beefitarian]

Some 466,650 newly trained pilots ... will be needed between 2010 and 2029

That's 23332 new pilots annually. To help alleviate this looming problem, I think I will start a flight school

The prices for old 172s with weeds growing through the fuselage has never been better. Let's do it!!!

[CAL]

amazing that this 'may' happen and pilot salaries and benefits will continue to stagnate or even fall....

[iflyforpie]

I could easily see this happening.

If all of the Freedoms of the Skies are excercised, pretty soon we will all be able to go around the world for a few hundred bucks...... with all flights connecting through Beijing or Mumbai.....

[daedalusx]

Well ... yes I believe in a post-apocalyptic war with the presence of flesh eating mutan-zombies we could theoratically have situation where the demands of pilots meet the offer.

Even then ... we'd still get people doing it for free.

[N2]

"The number of pilots is set to treble in two decades, Boeing predicted"

Set to treble? Are they starting a band?

[niss]

"The number of pilots is set to treble in two decades, Boeing predicted"

Set to treble? Are they starting a band?

Seriously? I was listening to them before they went mainstream.

[skat0r]

[Jastapilot]

Funny, I'm still waiting for that 10,000 pilot shortage that was supposed to happen by the year 2000! yeppers... still... waiting...

[ozone]

The way technology is going we may not even need pilots within 20 years

[Old fella]

Seems I heard that story way back in the mid 70's when I started and every subsequent year after that amongst all the mergers, shut-downs, forced closures and the like.........