Demand for pilots is "set to soar"

[jeta1]

.

[ant_321]

Things do seem to be taking a turn for the better but I'm not holding my breath on shortages in the tens of thousands.

[Mach 92]

Don't worry, the inevitable stock market crash and economic depression coming this year will balance out the demand for all those pilots.

[Mig29]

This year??!?? Crap!

Feel free to PM me with more details M.92 !!

[Gino Under]

There is a problem. Unlike the past shortage claims.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2007 ... rtage.html
http://nexuscanada.blogspot.com/2010/02 ... abour.html

Something else worth reading,
http://www.flying-colors.org/ATAC/2793-1.pdf

and just for giggles...
http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index ... icle=21797

Licence level and experience plus qualifications equals a job.

Gino Under

[Panama Jack]

<sigh>

It gets rather old to listen to the same trite comments from the peanut gallery any time an article like this is published. Usually it revolves around the same two hackneyed themes:

1) What do you mean? I graduated two years ago from the Flight School with promises of a bright future and have a Commercial, Multi-IFR with 350 hours TT. Air Canada and Westjet STILL haven't called me; or
2) I have been trying for years to get on with a good airline based ANYWHERE between Calgary and Victoria and south of Prince George. There just ain't any jobs!

First of all, lets take a few truths at face value:

1) Airline Deregulation has spelled the end of an industry and lifestyle that you might have seen Leonardo Di Caprio depict as a Pan Am pilot in those heady days. It is gone, and it ain't coming back. And in a big way, it has little to do with oversupply of pilots.
2) Some countries will have greater supply vs. demand figures than others. Boeing typically comments on a Global Industry rather than the one at the center of the universe (namely Toronto and its suburbs). Because of the relative ease of getting into flying, expect Canada to have more licensed pilots per capita than say, the United Arab Emirates or China.
3) Having a heart beat and a Commercial license does not necessarily make you a highly sought after professional. We are talking about certain skill sets that take years to accumulate rather than to produce at the local sausage factory.

I presently work for an overseas airline that is facing real staffing problems. We are losing our most experienced pilots to poachers—competitor airlines setting up road shows at the hotel conference center literally across the street from our headquarters for “walk-in” sessions. Some guys have walked in, just out of curiosity on their day off, and a few hours later they had a job offer that they didn’t really plan on pursuing. We have lost numerous guys because a) they are OK with flying the A320 or A330, but they dream of flying heavier metal (like an A380), or b) they feel that 5 or 6 years wait to upgrade is ridiculous—another airline is offering an upgrade within 3 to 4 years and on the wide-body instead of the narrow-body. We have had people leave us to go back home to European-based airlines, back to the United States, to the likes of Emirates, Etihad, Qatar Airways and to Air Asia. A few of the Canadian guys are also getting homesick and thinking of heading back to there. Even some latino pilots want to be back closer to family and Latin America is another region of the World which is looking at huge growth rates; they are holding out for rumored significant pay rises. Their previous companies who told them “if you leave us, don’t even bother sending a post card” are now coming after them on their knees.

The situation is so chronic at our airline that we received a memo last week from our Flight Operations management saying that due to the shortages, all summer vacations that were awarded between now and September 1st are hereby cancelled. In speaking with somebody from our Recruiting Department, we need around 100 pilots now. So why don’t we just pick the first 100 resumes listed on AvCanada? Well, one problem is that we have national cadet pilots who start with 250 hours total time and it takes years for them to be ready to transition to the left seat. We don’t upgrade at 1500 hours; we maintain higher standards than that. Another problem is the capacity of the Training Department, which is running flat out. An initial type rating takes about 2-3 months to process guys until they are “productive” on the line, and the upgrade (FO to Captain) process takes about 6 months for the process to run its course. Transition training between the types also takes commitment of several weeks. All of this becomes more difficult when you are now facing basic manpower shortages just to keep the airplanes flying.

Faced with these kind of problems, our airline, as others, have resorted to hiring direct-entry people; either Captains with a fair amount of recent experience on type, or First Officers as the same. These are people who can hit the ground running, but even there, our Training Department is saturated in trying to indoctrinate these new guys.

As far as Asian countries go, yes, many opportunities for foreign pilots in the following Asian countries:

1. Bahrain
2. Bangladesh
3. Brunei
4. China
5. Hong Kong
6. India
7. Indonesia
8. Japan
9. Kazakhstan
10. Kuwait
11. Macau
12. Malaysia
13. Oman
14. Qatar
15. Saudi Arabia
16. Singapore
17. South Korea
18. Taiwan
19. Thailand
20. Turkey
21. United Arab Emirates
22. Vietnam

Now, keep in mind that they are not looking for Navajo Captains, nor guys who have a few hundred hours (unless you happen to be a local and they can nurture you for a few years as you build experience). They are looking for guys who are experienced on type and can be parachuted in and productive within a few months of starting work and, in the case of FO’s, provide a pool of qualified people who are ready for upgrade.

As for if you happen to be a young Emirati lad with a Commercial License or meet the strict criteria for a Chinese airline then, yes, it is a bright future also. During my most recent visit to Canada (3 summers ago) I visited a small airport and found the local flying school was filled with Indian students having a lunch of pungent-smelling curry and roti. Quite a change in scenery from when I learned to fly a while back and fellow students were pulling an uninspiring-looking ham sandwich on white bread out of a brown paper bag. I expect that some of them are sitting on the right-seat of a Boeing 737NG in India right now.

That is the reality folks and regardless of how much the job situation and outlook sucks in Canada (and I agree, it really does suck), the next decades will look really exciting for the right people elsewhere in the World if you have license and will travel (and yes, I think barriers and qualification minima will decrease in the years ahead).

[skymarc]

How would you train all these pilots without 100LL?

[Panama Jack]

Not sure I get your point, skymarc, but the world-wide supply of 100LL is difficult and future supply is questionable. Diesel engines (which can burn kerosene) and engines such as the ROTAX ones that burn ordinary auto-fuel are the solution in some parts of the world and hold much promise.

[Airtids]

Well said, PJ.

This situation is actually not a whole lot different than it has been for decades. There is not now, nor likely ever will be, a huge demand (read: likely to improve WAWCON) for 700hr CPLs. There is, has been, and as long as the economy and fuel supply hold out will continue to be, a demand for experienced, type rated ATPLs (and I'm not talking about 1501 hrs and some PIC on a 'Ho). As frustrating for those who aren't there yet (how do I get a jet if I don't have a jet?) as the first thousand hours (how do I get the time if I don't have the time?) to be sure.

[iflyforpie]

I see your point PJ and an excellent post, but can you not connect the dots as to why there is a shortage of pilots at that experience level?

Everybody started out with 200TT (or 250TT) a piece of paper and a heartbeat. Only those who are lucky, persistent, and have low expectations can make it through the ten or so years until they've got an ATPL, a few thousand hours, and jet time.


My company operates the ubiquitous Cessna 172, but is one of the few that doesn't in a flight training environment. So we get lots of prospective students that I don't need to put the rose coloured glasses on to get my bread and butter. When they talk about pursuing a career for the sole purpose of landing a left seat in big iron for over a quarter mill a year, I simply tell them to think of it as a wildlife survival chart, preferably an aquatic one like a salmon.

All you have to do is look at the salary polls and see the spike between $50K and $75K to know where the industry is. And that is just the active pilots, not the ones who trained and never got a job or left aviation

Pilots are narcissistic by nature and will attribute their superior skill and natural charm to getting them where they are, but luck and douchebaggery--while never admitted--cannot be underestimated. Any wonder aviation reality shows are taking off.

[Panama Jack]

Well, I always thought my charm was somewhat greater than my skills, but all-tolled that ain't saying much. I do agree that luck and timing has a role to play in career progression. However, since you mentioned charm and skills in the same sentence, never downplay the role that networking has to do in career advancement (I am not talking about some kind of superficial hit-man style of being nice to people who might be able to get you something—I believe you referred to it as douchbaggery).

A reason for the high level of demand of pilots with high experience levels is developing markets-- Asia Pacific, India, Latin America, where millions of people are thinking about taking an airplane trip for the first time in their life but there are not enough pilots and airplanes to meet the demand. Canada and the US are already mature airline environments and market corrections have meant severe hardships for airline employees. We saw something like that already happen in India also in the last few years after a bubble-like surge when everybody was starting an airline. My point is that I don't think the aviation environment in Canada will look much different in 20 years from now (it will have gone through a few cycles, of course) but overseas we are talking an entirely different stories with some great opportunities, even at the lower-time career levels. I know one guy who is actively looking for Flight Instructors who want to work in China and as that country opens its skies to General Aviation over the next 10 years, I am sure it will be an exciting place to be.

On a slightly different topic, anybody in their right mind wanting to start-up a private airline would do so as a low-cost model (albeit not necessarily low-fare). These try to minimize costs, which can be passed along to consumers, and tend to do well in good economic times as well as bad times when those who need to travel are willing to trade-down. I predict that low-cost airlines will become even more common in the future. Of course, they will try to control their labor costs, like all other costs. This is part of the reality check that aspirants need to do if they are checking out mega-salaries that are/were paid at places like Air Canada or United Airlines. Canadian aviation operators have benefited by gorging themselves on what amounts to a subsidized supply of labor, most of which willing to work for less with the hope of getting the experience to go to these coveted jobs. I think many Canadian aviation companies couldn’t make of a go of things without it.

I have, in the past, compared Canadian pilots with Filipino seamen. Highly motivated, well trained, good command of the English language, willing to go almost everywhere and often available at lower pay and put up with worse working conditions (Ice Pilots is almost documentary evidence of this).

By the way, I like your comparison of career success with that of a salmon survival chart.

[traveller123]

So, there's any opportunities for a low-timer overseas? I don't talk about first officers positions on a 737.

I always heard about chinese airlines who are looking for type-rated pilots on airbus or boeing, but smaller aircrafts are non-existent there? If yes, I guess there's opportunities for a low timer? I'm pretty sure that the nationals are looking for the right seat on a wide body aircraft, not for a position on a cessna...

[Panama Jack]

Yes, traveller123, there are low-timer positions available overseas (not on the Airbus A320 or Boeing 737), and to an extent with the same caveats and challenges as low-timer positions in Canada.

It depends on what your classification of "low-time" is. Generally speaking, I think your chances are easier in your home country at 250 hours than overseas because lower-time pilots are usually a commodity. But I know of pilots who have gotten their base experience in sub-Saharan Africa, Belize, the Caribbean. I have seen job openings, on-line, for Caravan FO’s and light-twin pilots in Indonesia and Flight Instructors in China and India. Mind you, you’re going to also be competing with Europeans, US citizens, and others for these jobs.

As far as China goes, it hasn’t happened yet but due to a major legal change that happened late last year they will be opening up their airspace to general aviation. Changes are happening in China and it will bring very interesting opportunities (although this is of little consolation if you are looking for work during the next 3 months). Word of advice: Networking is even more important to the Chinese and they prefer to do business with people they know. So if you are low-time, maybe getting that Flight Instructor Rating isn’t such a bad idea after all?

[traveller123]

thanx for your answer,

yes, i'm a low timer with 200 hours, commercial and twin licences. I will look for jobs next year when I will finish my university degree (administration). Now i'm doing a float rating and i'm studying to write the inrat this summer. The IFR flight test is the big question for me because I don't know where I will work and IFR is valid only 2 years. And I heard that in many countries (mostly africa) they don't fly IFR.

You told me that networking is important, so if i'm going all around asia next year to show myself with my licences at the operators offices, do you think it's a good idea? I don't know if it's work like africa, the bush guys there says that you have to show yourself there if you want a job.

For the jobs here in Canada I will try but I don't expect anything.

And for the flight instructor rating, I will do it in the case that I can't find a job in another kind of piloting.

[Big Pistons Forever]

And for the flight instructor rating, I will do it in the case that I can't find a job in another kind of piloting.

Sigh...........

[Panama Jack]

OK, well, here is a study released by the ICAO:

http://www2.icao.int/en/NewsRoom/Lists/ ... .11.EN.pdf

Now remember, these are Worldwide figures, not a detailed study on numbers in Canada.