Porter IPO news

[ILS26_Steep]

I prefer the visual thru the eastern gap!

[username:]

I prefer the visual thru the eastern gap!

aka ex Porter now Sky Regional pilot

[Realitychex]

As you add staff and more aircraft to the fleet, your break even point is going to increase!

Umm, not necessarily. Fixed costs will be diluted over a wider base.

Porter's issue is maintenance costs headed north, fuel up 30% yoy and increased direct competition driving down yields.

That's what's causing their BELF to keep heading north.

[dcabrown]

Realitychex:

any thoughts on the potential impact to NI,CFO of the terminal building to Porter (holdco, not airline) ?

[stupido]

I prefer the visual thru the eastern gap!

aka ex Porter now Sky Regional pilot

.....remember.....once you initiate the steep, stay on the steep.....


.....as for Mr. SPY-IN-THE-SKY-007-PROJECT.....please, please, please, do not enter the site 243,630 times.....

Realitychex:

any thoughts on the potential impact to NI,CFO of the terminal building to Porter (holdco, not airline) ?

.....now we have a PPL youngster.....being curious about global politics.....

WTF is going on in here???????

[dcabrown]

I prefer the visual thru the eastern gap!

aka ex Porter now Sky Regional pilot

.....remember.....once you initiate the steep, stay on the steep.....


.....as for Mr. SPY-IN-THE-SKY-007-PROJECT.....please, please, please, do not enter the site 243,630 times.....

Realitychex:

any thoughts on the potential impact to NI,CFO of the terminal building to Porter (holdco, not airline) ?

.....now we have a PPL youngster.....being curious about global politics.....

WTF is going on in here???????

Not sure I understand your point...

The thread is about a Porter IPO.

My comment was asking about the possible change in financial condition for Porter's parent given the possibility of an upcoming IPO, relative to the first one. i.e. would the terminal have added a meaningful amount to Porter's net income (NI) and cash from operations (CFO) now that its up and running? Since no terminal info was released at the last IPO, i think its a fair question....

Not sure where your condescending attitude came from or the level of shock

If it's because an intelligent question was asked in an avcanada forum, then yes, I agree, I am shocked

[Valhalla]

dcabrown,

It's a fair question, and I think everyone is getting a little bit sensitive due to strongly worded comments back and forth in the past.

In any case, based only on my observations, but the terminal is run as a separate entity owned by Porter Aviation Holdings. The terminal collects a generous fee from both Air Canada and Porter Airlines which all gets fed back to Porter Aviation Holdings (which is what will be IPO'd). There is also quite a bit more advertising around the terminal now versus last time.

So you are correct in thinking that the completed terminal has added to the net income of Porter Aviation Holdings, especially with Air Canada present. By how much, will be answered if Porter decides to release financials later this year.

[Jastapilot]

The public didn't take the bait the first time, and they won't the second time unless Porter shows solid.... SOLID numbers and with a trend a person can say 'Hey, it's for real this time!'

It's just that I, like many others, think it's a steaming pile of BS Deluce is trying to feed us.

[Realitychex]

I prefer the visual thru the eastern gap!

aka ex Porter now Sky Regional pilot

.....remember.....once you initiate the steep, stay on the steep.....


.....as for Mr. SPY-IN-THE-SKY-007-PROJECT.....please, please, please, do not enter the site 243,630 times.....

Realitychex:

any thoughts on the potential impact to NI,CFO of the terminal building to Porter (holdco, not airline) ?

.....now we have a PPL youngster.....being curious about global politics.....

WTF is going on in here???????

I thought the claim was a billion hits or so. Or was it 2 billion. Or 3 trillion?

I'll give you credit for having a moniker that pretty accurately sums up your level of intelligence.

[pointyertoes]

...oooh sensitive. I wonder why? I would have expected more from you than ad-hominem attacks.

[Realitychex]

...oooh sensitive. I wonder why? I would have expected more from you than ad-hominem attacks.

Sensitive? Over what? A long since settled issue no one cares about anymore? Move on. Everyone else on all fronts who was even tangentially involved has, memories are faded and files have been long since been recycled.

Funny how no one bothers to talk about it, eh? Have you ever begun to wonder why? Nah. I didn't think so.

Nevertheless, it was a nice red herring. Next time, try discussing something relevant to the thread, namely, something to do with Porter's latest attempt to seperate investors from their cash.

[Inverted2]

From another site:

http://theairlinewebsite.com/index.php/ ... er-update/

If there is a profit, it can't be too good with a 60% load factor.

[TKTguy]

The thing I don't understand is everyone talking load factor. I would be
a little concerned with yield. They are constantly offering 30% off fares.
It reminds me of other carriers from the past trying for a quick influx of cash
to keep going. Don't get me wrong I hope they survive. I think its good for everyone.
I don't think they should be underselling their product. From what I hear the service
is great. Build on that.

[Realitychex]

The thing I don't understand is everyone talking load factor. I would be
a little concerned with yield. They are constantly offering 30% off fares.
It reminds me of other carriers from the past trying for a quick influx of cash
to keep going. Don't get me wrong I hope they survive. I think its good for everyone.
I don't think they should be underselling their product. From what I hear the service
is great. Build on that.

You are correct in that l/f by itself means absolutely nothing. It'd be like trying to figure out what a restaurant makes by counting their customers. Unless you know what the customer bought, and it's profit margin, it is useless information.

In Porter's case, their footprint is extremely small, (about 4% the size of AC and WJ combined) and they let everyone have a detailed peak under their kimono this time last year.

It is a fairly simple exercise to figure out the rest of their metrics, namely their BELF and then compare that to their l/f's they trot out every month.

The rest is semantics.

[stupido]

I thought the claim was a billion hits or so. Or was it 2 billion. Or 3 trillion?

I'll give you credit for having a moniker that pretty accurately sums up your level of intelligence.

.....as a MENSA member.....I guess that it's not bad.....

[justwork]

I thought their BELF was %49? So almost %60 is pretty decent. Albeit some of those butts were in the seats during some sales, I'm sure the majority were at normal price. To see the LF up to almost %60 is pretty great, they may be charging less during the seat sales but they're giving new customers a great look at what you can get when you don't fly AC/JAZZ and WS, their facebook page seems pretty chalked full of positive responses.

I do wonder what their BELF is now, last year it was totted as %49, this year they have more money coming in from the terminal... I wonder... guess we'll have to wait and see when they put the numbers out, everything before then is strictly speculation!

[Realitychex]

I thought their BELF was %49? So almost %60 is pretty decent. Albeit some of those butts were in the seats during some sales, I'm sure the majority were at normal price. To see the LF up to almost %60 is pretty great, they may be charging less during the seat sales but they're giving new customers a great look at what you can get when you don't fly AC/JAZZ and WS, their facebook page seems pretty chalked full of positive responses.

I do wonder what their BELF is now, last year it was totted as %49, this year they have more money coming in from the terminal... I wonder... guess we'll have to wait and see when they put the numbers out, everything before then is strictly speculation!

History teaches us to take most of the claims coming from Porter with a hefty grain of salt.

Their last confirmed belf was 1Q 2010 at 54.6%. That is easily calculated from their May 2010 SEDAR filing from their failed IPO. It's all there on page 11 and F-35.

BELF is a function of yield and costs. In 20 years of records, I have yet to see yields improve with the introduction of new capacity on head to head routes, so it's pretty safe to say that at best, their yields are flat. I'd bet they are off about 5%.

That would move their BELF to 57.5%.

The increase in fuel prices since early 2010 would take the BELF up to 59.9%.

On a per asm basis, Horizon spent 72% more on maintenance than Porter did , (1.77 cents vs 1.03 cents), on a fleet of 42 Q400's and 13 CRJ 700's with an average age of 5 years. That tells you where Porter's maintenance costs are headed as their maintenance holiday ends on their fleet. That moves their BELF to 63.9%.

Add in interest expenses, higher wages and a myriad of new costs where the pennies inevitably turn into dollars and you can see where this is headed.

You can see why I remain from Missouri when I'm told Porter is doing well financially.

Show me.

[SSV_Roots]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-o ... le2088110/

[sean.j]

I think alot of people forget the airline is expendable, deluce has been quoted as saying whether the airline makes money or looses money he dosen't care, the infastructure is what will create the profits. load factors don't matter too him profit from the airline doesn't matter too him, establishing service at the airport where he owns everything and leases space to his competition matters too him.