Industry expansion

Sparky · Post by **Sparky** » Fri Mar 12, 2004 10:06 am

Should we be worried about Westjet, Canjet, Jetsgo etc. expanding so quickly? Yeah, It's great to see everyone moving finally but can the market support it? I don't want to see things fall apart again.

twinpratts · Post by **twinpratts** » Fri Mar 12, 2004 1:40 pm

I'm guessing that the industry will fall apart again, and always will... It's survival of the fittest.

corn-shoot · Post by **corn-shoot** » Fri Mar 12, 2004 1:55 pm

It's like watching a really fat lady go to an all you can eat buffet. You really don't want to watch to see how much she'll eat before the buttons on her pants burst, yet, you cannot look away. Well unfortunately the fat lately smoked a big doobie before deciding she's gonna strap on the feed bag this time. This industry fat lady doesn't wear strectch pants either boys, be careful.

PS. I'm awaiting a yo momma joke on this one.

... · Post by **...** » Fri Mar 12, 2004 2:59 pm

Usually I would post a picture here...then get yelled at by the Admin.
However the pic I was gonna post was a little tasteless even for Birddog!

So instead,

Yo momma so fat, when she turns around, people give her a welcome back party!

Yo momma so fat she saw a yellow bus full of white kids and said " STOP THAT TWINKIE!! "

Yo momma so fat, when she runs she makes the cd played skip, at the radio station!!!

YO MOMMA SO FAT SHE WENT OUTSIDE IN A RED DRESS AND THE NEIGHBORHOOD HOLLERED HEY KOOL-AID

Yo Momma fat she jumped up in the air and got stuck

Yo Momma so fat she went bungee jumping and went strait to hell!!!

Yo momma so fat shes on both side of the family.

Yo momma so fat when she walks around in Texas in high heels, she strikes oil!!!

...whew..... I need a smoke!!!

wallypilot · Post by **wallypilot** » Fri Mar 12, 2004 5:03 pm

well you deserve a smoke after that one! heh.

Seriously, though, I am pretty confident in WJ's business model. They don't stay in markets if they are not making money. And (as far as I know) the fleet expansion is being funded primarily with cash that was earned over the past few years and some debt. So, they are not taking on a huge amount of debt, and their customer service seems to get good marks very consistently. Further, starting later this year, they will be starting some SKEDS to the good ol' US of A.

Those other 2 carriers, well I am not so sure. They guy behind Jetsgo has somewhat questionable business strategies as far as sustainability goes, if you ask me(at least from his previous track record). But, maybe this time he will make it work. Canjet, i know very little about, so there ya go. Take all that for what it is worth. (pretty well, zilch if you consider the source!)

ahramin · Post by **ahramin** » Fri Mar 12, 2004 10:51 pm

These expansions seem very stable to me. They are not jumping into routes with both feet and no escape. They research a route, then put airiplanes on it. If they are wrong they are not shy about cutting back or cancelling. They are not running on the ragged edge. They are not pumping every cent they make into bigger and better.

I think we are so used to Canadian and Air Canada that we forget that the people running these companies have one goal: to make a profit. They are not trying to make an air transport system. They are not trying to get into a pissing contest. They are trying to make money and i think for the most part that we can count on them to do so.

Granted there is a certain amount of uncertainty with Jetsgo since there is no way of seeing if the books are cooked. But i do not think that things are any more uncertain at Jetsgo than they are at most non aviation corporations. Secretaries, executives and shop floor workers get laid off too.

Anyone else bet on race horses? I wish i had a horse as sure as Westjet.

ahramin

... · Post by **...** » Sat Mar 13, 2004 8:44 am

You know I have a good friend that is Pro AirCanada in a large way. He is also a prolific speaker and writer, and is clear and well thought out when expressing his views.

I wish I would convince him to post on here however from his words "...I Can't!!!! The spelling from these guy's would drive me nuts.."
I just agreed with him thinking he would not notice how brutal I was.

His points about Westjet and Clive not being an innovator like everyone believes him to be, are interesting. His take on the whole 'merger between the 2 giants is facinating. And he makes a great tuna salad 'sangwudge'.

How can I get the 'know-it-nothings' to stay outta the conversation if I convince him to tackle the 'heavy' hitters on this site that are high up on the corporate chain. I know for a fact there are DFO's and CP's and even owners from large to small companies that browse this site. How come does the Feathered Canine know all.......

So anyway...thats all I got for now....

Mach1 · Post by **Mach1** » Tue Mar 16, 2004 9:51 am

You forgot,

Your mama’s so fat her high school yearbook picture was a satellite photo.

Katmando · Post by **Katmando** » Wed Mar 17, 2004 6:11 am

Why worry about any company expanding, this expansion only provides job for everyone else down the ladder. If these companies fold your job will probably be secure unless it was your company.

Expatriated · Post by **Expatriated** » Mon Mar 22, 2004 10:34 am

Don't forget that the entire airline industry is still at pre Sept. 11th levels, so there seems to be room for some expansion.

Another point is that Air Canada still hasn't got financing in place or a gazillion other problems solved, not to mention the fact that Jetsgo, Westjet and Canjet ALL have much lower opperating costs.

Westjet is here for the long haul whereas Jetsgo and Canjet will more than likely truck along just fine for another 5 years or so. Depending on the industry at that time, we'll have to see what happens. We all know it goes up and down in cycles.

All in all it looks good to me....grab a seat and hold on for the ride!

wallypilot · Post by **wallypilot** » Mon Mar 22, 2004 2:03 pm

Also remember that up until 2001, the western world economies were on the biggest bubble since the post-WWII expansion of the 50's. Throughout the 90's, everything grew way faster than normal, and too fast for the long term. That bubble started to burst before 9/11. 9/11 just sharpened and deepened the drop. The world economies were due for a major correction. Individuals and companies borrowed like never before in order to keep expanding. Well, now we are paying for that over zealous expansion, and I think there is still more room for market correction. Sorry for the pessimism. But as long as we have this unstable global security situation, and a US government with record deficits, fiscally, and trade-wise, I am afraid Canada, and to some degree the world, gets sucked down with them. It is the companies that have lean operating structures like WJ, etc that will make it through this prolonged downturn.

Having said that, I think Canadian domestic carriers (the smaller guys) will eek out a marginally profitable existence, but that substantial growth will be limited. (other than in the oil patch! IMHO). I think the bulk of pilot demand that will exist will come from growth in the smaller markets, rather than the traditional pull through from the top employers.

my $.02.